Julio Rodriguez - Page 147

MintyWhite · 05-06-2023, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

If people are looking to quick flip because they think "x" player is going to get hot or have a big Spring...then it doesn't matter as much. That's just pure gambling & really hard to do in todays hobby. But if you're looking to really collect or invest/hold longterm, then stick to the staples. Cream rises to the top over time.

More like groupthink rising to the top.

These are staples to this certain age of collectors, who keep repeating that this is the only way forward, perpetuating this self-fulfilling ideology.

SupermanBrandon · 05-06-2023, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MintyWhite

More like groupthink rising to the top.

These are staples to this certain age of collectors, who keep repeating that this is the only way forward, perpetuating this self-fulfilling ideology.

So you're willing to not only gamble on the longterm investment of a player, but now also gamble on which new product releases people will like the best in this longterm future? Lol. Keep most of your portfolio in the staples. Zero reason to gamble twice in the same hand.

Vdm2018 · 05-06-2023, 10:32 PM

damn. double play! what wrong with Julio Rodriguez?

phisouza33 · 05-06-2023, 10:40 PM

Totally lost. Has that soto affliction

speedyjg13 · 05-06-2023, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vdm2018

damn. double play! what wrong with Julio Rodriguez?

Some will call it the run of the mill "sophmore slump"

cardozo · 05-06-2023, 11:47 PM

Not sure why they still are having him lead off.

speedyjg13 · 05-07-2023, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardozo

Not sure why they still are having him lead off.

Drop him in the lineup to 6, 7 or 8.

The Yankees did it for ARod and it worked. Do it for JRod too.

seanbros55 · 05-07-2023, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Some will call it the run of the mill "sophmore slump"

Others may call it the “sophomore slump.”

ninjacookies · 05-07-2023, 12:54 AM

So glad I didn't buy into the offseason hype.

That rarely works out in this hobby after a spectacular rookie campaign.

He'll probably still have a great season, but he was an extremely late bloomer last year and may duplicate the performance.

cardozo · 05-07-2023, 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Drop him in the lineup to 6, 7 or 8.

The Yankees did it for ARod and it worked. Do it for JRod too.

Exactly, they have plenty of hitters that can lead off while he refinds his rhythm.

Qubits · 05-07-2023, 08:16 AM

His xBA is higher than it was last season and is also 0.47 higher than his actual BA. I think a good portion of this current slump is just bad luck and anyone thinking he's a bust now is overreacting hardcore.

noaskiecards · 05-07-2023, 08:18 AM

Have prices gone down since spring training?

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

seanrs1 · 05-07-2023, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noaskiecards

Have prices gone down since spring training?

Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Yes they have probably 20 to 50% depending on the card.

SupermanBrandon · 05-07-2023, 08:29 AM

The second worse time to ever buy baseball cards is during ST. The deadliest time is during post season baseball when guys you’ve never heard of get hot and have a moment.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ThoseBackPages · 05-07-2023, 10:08 AM

what is his First Topps Chrome down to in non gem form? still need one for my collection

jayjay0122 · 05-07-2023, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jolten Joe

To me and I will probably get roasted but I agree with Topps Flagship, Topps chrome, and Chrome Update. Anything else might have a cool photo or what not but to me they are what I call gimmicky sets made specifically to draw people in but in the end they just aren't classic enough to stand the test of time.For instance you put a Julio flagship update, Bowman's Best, Heritage, Stadium Club , and Allen & Ginter next to each other and 9 out of 10 people's eyes will directly go to the Flagship Update because it's that Iconic photo you look for. The others might be flashy but so is Fool's Gold.

I think what's gimmicky is Topps making a ton of different versions of the flagship card, whether that's parallels or another set. And it's probably only going to get worse as the years go on. That's why I would take a RC from another set that looks good anyday over flagship because of that reason.

MattRoc · 05-07-2023, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qubits

His xBA is higher than it was last season and is also 0.47 higher than his actual BA. I think a good portion of this current slump is just bad luck and anyone thinking he's a bust now is overreacting hardcore.

He outperformed his expected numbers last year by a good margin, and is underperforming this year by a similar margin. Great talent and being able to be an above-average major leaguer at 21 and 22 is pretty special, but he's not close to being at the level of guys like Trout, Acuna, or Tatis based on their big league performance at the same age.

SupermanBrandon · 05-07-2023, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

what is his First Topps Chrome down to in non gem form? still need one for my collection

They will get lower. Patience young one.

ThoseBackPages · 05-07-2023, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

They will get lower. Patience young one.

ive not been following them, where are they at now? i would like one for ~200

cj828282 · 05-07-2023, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

ive not been following them, where are they at now? i would like one for ~200

I assume you mean the TC goof silver pack one. A raw one went for $660 so still quite high. The logofractors are high as well. A TCU can be had for $5.

ThoseBackPages · 05-07-2023, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj828282

I assume you mean the TC goof silver pack one. A raw one went for $660 so still quite high. The logofractors are high as well. A TCU can be had for $5.

Thank You! Yes, the Topps Chrome #222 is his first Topps Chrome.

Topps really screwed that up, but we shouldnt be surprised.

Rbradleigh · 05-07-2023, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MattRoc

He outperformed his expected numbers last year by a good margin, and is underperforming this year by a similar margin. Great talent and being able to be an above-average major leaguer at 21 and 22 is pretty special, but he's not close to being at the level of guys like Trout, Acuna, or Tatis based on their big league performance at the same age.

Not close to the age 21 performance as those BIG 3?
That’s a hot take and now I’m gonna have to lookup stats from the back of cards.

I’ll give ya Alex Rodriguez age 21? #s ok fine

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

slogue2 · 05-07-2023, 12:54 PM

One of my best buds came into town this weekend and asked that I order some boxes so he could rip for the first time in 20-25 years. Went with 3 boxes of 2020 Finest Flashbacks and 3 boxes of 2022 Finest Flashbacks. He pulled this Julio and it was so incredibly satisfying to see the dumbfounded look on his face when he said “I think I’ve got a good one…” and flipped it over to see the /35 serial numbering on the back. It was like he became that 10 year old all over again.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MattRoc · 05-07-2023, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rbradleigh

Not close to the age 21 performance as those BIG 3?
That’s a hot take and now I’m gonna have to lookup stats from the back of cards.

I’ll give ya Alex Rodriguez age 21? #s ok fine

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Shouldn't be all that controversial. Julio is being hyped as the next big thing and his card prices are following, but there's nothing in his MLB production in terms of non-surface level numbers (and even his surface level numbers, to be honest) that indicate he is a "generational superstar" type of guy. He's a legit All-Star talent who should have an amazing and long career, but when you dive deep there are some holes and issues with his offensive profile. I'd expect him to improve on his weaknesses when it comes to plate discipline, but he has a long way to go in that area that keep him from being an elite offensive player.

Trout at 20 and 21 was in a different straosphere- .326/.399/564 at 20 and .323/.432/.557 at 21 are simply all-time, inner-circle HOF type numbers. We dont have his expected numbers for those years, but the raw numbers are undeniable.

Acuna slashed .293/.366/.552 and .280/.365/.518 at 20 and 21 with equally fantastic expected numbers (.375 and.390 xwoba that lined up with his numbers). Obviously his injury got in his way, but he's a super stud.

Tatis, Jr. had the Covid year during his age 21 season, but xwoba of .347 as a 20 year old and .422 at 21 that supported his great production.

Soto is another guy with otherwordly production from 19-21 that blows anything Julio did out of the water.

Julio ran a .337 xwoba last year and .335 this year. If his production numbers matched his expected, he'd be a .255/.320/.455 hitter, about 40 cOPS points below his career average (a really good, but not top tier .817 career number). Really great numbers for a good defensive centerfielder from 21-22, but nothing that screams hobby superstar. He's a damn good player, but people are investing in him like he matches up with the guys listed above when he's truly on a tier below all of them.

seanrs1 · 05-07-2023, 03:37 PM

I think most people on here were expecting a similar or better performance this year than last year. If he can be a 5 to 6 WAR player year in and out people will be happy to buy his cards. And as we all know hobby good is not just about stats. Julio is a super likeable player. And the potential for 40/40 is there in a best case scenario. I keep on buying because I believe in the talent, tools, and hobby potential.

05-06-2023, 11:47 PM	#3656
cardozo Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 10,161 Djorkaeff6 djorkaeff6	Not sure why they still are having him lead off. __________________ Looking to move on……

05-07-2023, 12:54 AM	#3659
ninjacookies Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: All the girls see the (boi)/ Look at his flips / Look at his kards / All they say is (oh boi). Posts: 56,477	So glad I didn't buy into the offseason hype. That rarely works out in this hobby after a spectacular rookie campaign. He'll probably still have a great season, but he was an extremely late bloomer last year and may duplicate the performance. __________________ #5 world ranked Ledell Eackles superclection as recognized by Tuff Stuff junior managing editor, Barry McCaulkinner. Somethin' like a cross between Teddy Aguhob and Kaboom Mystery Packs. I got that Givenchy denim flow.

05-07-2023, 08:29 AM	#3664
SupermanBrandon Banned Join Date: Dec 2018 Location: TN Posts: 15,843	Julio Rodriguez The second worse time to ever buy baseball cards is during ST. The deadliest time is during post season baseball when guys you’ve never heard of get hot and have a moment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

05-07-2023, 10:08 AM	#3665
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,052 ThoseBackPages	what is his First Topps Chrome down to in non gem form? still need one for my collection __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

05-07-2023, 12:54 PM	#3673
slogue2 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 2,030	One of my best buds came into town this weekend and asked that I order some boxes so he could rip for the first time in 20-25 years. Went with 3 boxes of 2020 Finest Flashbacks and 3 boxes of 2022 Finest Flashbacks. He pulled this Julio and it was so incredibly satisfying to see the dumbfounded look on his face when he said “I think I’ve got a good one…” and flipped it over to see the /35 serial numbering on the back. It was like he became that 10 year old all over again. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ https://myslabs.to/sea_logu

05-06-2023, 10:32 PM	#3653
Vdm2018 Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Location: New York Posts: 2,045 Vqle280z	damn. double play! what wrong with Julio Rodriguez?

05-06-2023, 10:40 PM	#3654
phisouza33 Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 496	Totally lost. Has that soto affliction

05-07-2023, 08:16 AM	#3661
Qubits Member Join Date: Mar 2023 Location: South Carolina Posts: 828	His xBA is higher than it was last season and is also 0.47 higher than his actual BA. I think a good portion of this current slump is just bad luck and anyone thinking he's a bust now is overreacting hardcore.

05-07-2023, 08:18 AM	#3662
noaskiecards Member Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 1,145	Have prices gone down since spring training? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

05-07-2023, 03:37 PM	#3675
seanrs1 Member Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Michigan Posts: 2,707	I think most people on here were expecting a similar or better performance this year than last year. If he can be a 5 to 6 WAR player year in and out people will be happy to buy his cards. And as we all know hobby good is not just about stats. Julio is a super likeable player. And the potential for 40/40 is there in a best case scenario. I keep on buying because I believe in the talent, tools, and hobby potential.