Potential Worth of Soccer Cards as Market Grows

[YayNJ]

You do right

[Nobody0211]

My Vlahovic sold last night, but I’m thinking I’m not getting paid.




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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Nobody0211

My Vlahovic sold last night, but I’m thinking I’m not getting paid.




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You can cancel the winning bid and offer the card to the 2nd highest bidder using EBay's "second chance offer" procedure.

[Nobody0211]

Originally Posted by mfw13

You can cancel the winning bid and offer the card to the 2nd highest bidder using EBay's "second chance offer" procedure.

I think the first and second person are the same person.


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[reddragonthe]

Ebay offers (solicited and unsolicited... especially those when it is a BIN) are annoying...

Why I don't haggle:

1. No time for that. It costs what it costs. Makes it harder to sell anything in these downturns of segments like modern soccer... but life will move on (and maybe I want less tomorrow than I did today).

2. Haggle prices penalize people who are nice/generous/less argumentative. They just say "that looks nice, I'll pay you want you want"... instead of trying to beat down the will until the lowest number is achieved. So why reward only those folks? Nice people should get a good price, too. Honestly - often times nice people for me get a better price.

[YayNJ]

I HATE it when you get messages with nothing but "absolute lowest??!!" or similar.

Not even a hello.

and then when you turn them down, they message you back with something angry, or act like you've just insulted their mother.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

I will add in my thoughts as a collector based in Japan, and what I have seen over the last 4~6 weeks.

As a collector, I am generally agnostic if prices are up or down. I tend to have a fixed spend into any particular collection, and any buying I do is predicated on me selling/trading something I have to obtain the new piece. In an up market, the strategy is pretty easy in that I will grab the piece I am after first, then list what I have for sale. I do this with 95% confidence I can get pretty much what I want/need to get out of the card I am selling. With the slowing market, I have had to pivot on this strategy, and attempt to sell first and then make the purchase after. The problem I have had is that people are unwilling to budge on pricing for the cards I am looking to pick up, so I am unable to budge on the cards I am looking to sell.

The only "bargains" I see happening are in auctions. Auctioning anything in this market seems to be very risky from a sellers perspective. Look at some of the recent sales that have gone through Goldin and the PWCC weekly auctions. The 2006 Panini World Cup Messi in PSA 10 has gone from a high of $30,000, down to $10,000, followed by a few sales in the $6,000 range and then in the most recent Goldin auction it only hit $2,640. A 2014 Panini World Cup Messi Pulsar Prizm in PSA 10 just sold at Goldin for $912. That card was at $2,000~$2,300 just a few months ago. The problem is, no one is willing to sell anywhere close to those auction comps. I posted WTB at last comp +20% and have had zero interest. This just grinds the market to a halt. Many buyers will only consider buying close to the last sale, and sellers feel the market has dropped too much. Until buyers feel the market has bottomed and feel comfortable bidding the market back up, the negative feedback loop of lower prices just kills the market.

Another point that many have mentioned is that there are so many new products siphoning money away from singles, and into the World Cup it will likely only get worse. People are throwing their money away on absolute rubbish, and this is money that is "lost" to the singles market. This money is going to Topps, Panini, and Futera (ugh!). People are spending $XXX for spots in a break and getting 10% of XXX in value out. That really hurts the market, and also sours new collectors on the viability of soccer cards as something that will retain some type of value.

At this point I am just sitting on my hands waiting. I am a willing buyer for all kinds of cards, from the low end to middle end, but unless I can actively sell at relatively similar prices I refuse to do anything.

Regards

This is true for both mlb and nba as well. Newer people and breakers still talking high $$ new junk while singles prices dwindle.

[k13]

Too bad breakers take too long to run out of idiots.

[YayNJ]

I might be exaggerating it a little, but I genuinely feel like pretty much all the wind has been taken out of soccers sails. Being completely honest, soccer was only a notch above niche anyway, even during the boom there were only a couple of hundred what I'd say "collectors" - the same names would pop up all the time. With the economic downturn, it's just completely dropped off a cliff and I doubt many of them will be coming back.

In the UK it feels as if quite a few people feel like they have been ripped off in a way.. the euphoria of the chase has worn off and now they are looking at their empty wallet and dreaming of that new Tesla when all they actually have is a couple of hundred empty boxes of Topps on demand, panini prizm and a One Touch of Callum Wilson /50.

[fadster]

I think what we're seeing is a separation of the wheat and the chaff. Quality with organic interest is still selling reasonably well and attracting good interest from collectors. The stuff that speculators piled into, ie ultra modern base, mid career mid-range numbered stuff of average players, is correcting as it should and I don't think it's the worst thing for the hobby if we lose some of that crowd.

I think we're also seeing some of the players the first flippers / "investors" pile into flop, eg Werner, and maybe a realisation that even for the likes of Mbappe and Haaland it's a long slog rather than a straight line to the moon.

The more collecting orientated venues continue to steadily grow and get busier, likewise the shows here in the UK, I have no worries about the health of the hobby. The ripping / flipping crowd maybe not so rosy, easy money isn't there anymore. With no cheap PSA grading the easy commoditisation route just isn't there.

[k13]

Lot of it is worse now than even before the boom.
2015 a lot of cards sold better.

Maybe these idiots will learn their lesson eventually from losing money on all these garbage rookies and buy something else.

[HenryM1884]

Panini would be better off doing less La Liga and Serie A sets and adding smaller print-run sets for the other leagues they have the license for, such as Ligue 1, Primiera Liga, South American leagues.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by HenryM1884

Panini would be better off doing less La Liga and Serie A sets and adding smaller print-run sets for the other leagues they have the license for, such as Ligue 1, Primiera Liga, South American leagues.

They only do Mosaic and Chronicles. Obsidian is multileague. I don't think there's enough demand to have even 1 release per each of those leagues.

[TradingCardsLLC]

today I heard that PWCC is rejecting my 1958 Pele rookie card. I had sent it in as part of their partnership with CSG for grading and listing to their weekly auction. Their reason: Your item did not meet our minimum value threshold. Really, a Pele rookie card? OK.

[fadster]

Originally Posted by TradingCardsLLC

today I heard that PWCC is rejecting my 1958 Pele rookie card. I had sent it in as part of their partnership with CSG for grading and listing to their weekly auction. Their reason: Your item did not meet our minimum value threshold. Really, a Pele rookie card? OK.

Which Pele is it? There is no minimum threshold for the weekly auctions, if something goes unsold at the $10 minimum bid they keep the card. Did you submit for the Premier auction as that has a min of $25k value (but there is flexibility on that)?

[Frankish]

Originally Posted by k13

Lot of it is worse now than even before the boom.
2015 a lot of cards sold better.

Maybe these idiots will learn their lesson eventually from losing money on all these garbage rookies and buy something else.

What do you suggest they buy instead of the rookie cards? I'm genuinely curious. As a collector (and mostly a vintage one at that) rather than investor/speculator, I haven't formed any strong opinions....

[Ray V]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

I might be exaggerating it a little, but I genuinely feel like pretty much all the wind has been taken out of soccers sails. Being completely honest, soccer was only a notch above niche anyway, even during the boom there were only a couple of hundred what I'd say "collectors" - the same names would pop up all the time. With the economic downturn, it's just completely dropped off a cliff and I doubt many of them will be coming back.

In the UK it feels as if quite a few people feel like they have been ripped off in a way.. the euphoria of the chase has worn off and now they are looking at their empty wallet and dreaming of that new Tesla when all they actually have is a couple of hundred empty boxes of Topps on demand, panini prizm and a One Touch of Callum Wilson /50.

That might be true of the ultra modern cards, but vintage is as strong as it's ever been.

I feel that many of the speculators that jumped into soccer during the pandemic to make a quick buck, that really knew nothing about soccer cards or soccer in general, found it way more difficult to make that buck especially as things took a downturn, so they quickly exited.

Remember the posts that started ... "I know nothing about soccer but I ripped this box - did I get anything good?" ... or ... "What hot rookies are in this set?"

[k13]

Originally Posted by Frankish

What do you suggest they buy instead of the rookie cards? I'm genuinely curious. As a collector (and mostly a vintage one at that) rather than investor/speculator, I haven't formed any strong opinions....

I meant the rookies from the last 2-3 years.

Problem in soccer all the current best players are stuck in the rookie sticker/what rookie card is it area.

Sure influencers are pumping rookie stickers and "vintage" and sheep follow but I don't want to pay thousands for .25 sticker because its in a psa case now.

2014-2016 era is completely undervalued still, not overprinted and has 1st real cards of all the top stars but that's just my opinion.

[Ianhatcher]

Vintage will be effected too. People said High End Modern was fine and look how that has dipped.

Even Pele's RCs seem to be dipping lately. The 1958 FIFA World Cup Alifabolaget #635 Pele Rookie Card PSA 4 went for $88k in January and is then sold in April for $73k a $15k drop in price.

I'm not a collector or expert on vintage either and I'm sure there are examples of cards going up as well but the point is in this market the downturn is just working it's way through the sectors. Ultra Modern was first, then Modern, then High End of both and now I'd bet it hits Vintage.

Current economic issues aside I don't think people understand exactly what it was going to do to the market when PSA upped value tier grading to $25 and then ultimately turned it all off. That was a $15 increase so for every 10 cards you graded that was $150 taken out of your pocket and going to PSA. It's risky too so if you get a picky grader or don't know what you are doing and get a bunch of 9s you are screwed. You probably are losing money at $25 a card where at $10 you could probably sell most base card for $20 or so and do well.

Until people can reasonably grade cards with PSA to recoup money spent on wax the market will continue to be bleed out. You have over a year of people joining breaks and opening up 2021 wax with tons of money spent where they can't recoup the cost because it's not worth the grading fees.

People hate the grading of base cards and the backlog it created but it was a way to give many people access to higher end cards so to think that wouldn't effect the markets was pretty shortsighted.

Now, one of two things needs to happen. Either card manufacturers overproduce the crap out of products to drive box prices down or PSA reduces their grading fees so people can grade cards and recoup money. I would think a bit of both happens but I don't see 2020-2021 ever happening again in this hobby.

Soccer will have it's ups and down of players as they transfer or win titles/awards and normalize but we won't see 2020 and 2021 again with cheap cards that boom because there are no cheap cards anymore and there are no affordable ways to grade them either.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Ianhatcher

Vintage will be effected too. People said High End Modern was fine and look how that has dipped.

Even Pele's RCs seem to be dipping lately. The 1958 FIFA World Cup Alifabolaget #635 Pele Rookie Card PSA 4 went for $88k in January and is then sold in April for $73k a $15k drop in price.

I'm not a collector or expert on vintage either and I'm sure there are examples of cards going up as well but the point is in this market the downturn is just working it's way through the sectors. Ultra Modern was first, then Modern, then High End of both and now I'd bet it hits Vintage.

Current economic issues aside I don't think people understand exactly what it was going to do to the market when PSA upped value tier grading to $25 and then ultimately turned it all off. That was a $15 increase so for every 10 cards you graded that was $150 taken out of your pocket and going to PSA. It's risky too so if you get a picky grader or don't know what you are doing and get a bunch of 9s you are screwed. You probably are losing money at $25 a card where at $10 you could probably sell most base card for $20 or so and do well.

Until people can reasonably grade cards with PSA to recoup money spent on wax the market will continue to be bleed out. You have over a year of people joining breaks and opening up 2021 wax with tons of money spent where they can't recoup the cost because it's not worth the grading fees.

People hate the grading of base cards and the backlog it created but it was a way to give many people access to higher end cards so to think that wouldn't effect the markets was pretty shortsighted.

Now, one of two things needs to happen. Either card manufacturers overproduce the crap out of products to drive box prices down or PSA reduces their grading fees so people can grade cards and recoup money. I would think a bit of both happens but I don't see 2020-2021 ever happening again in this hobby.

Soccer will have it's ups and down of players as they transfer or win titles/awards and normalize but we won't see 2020 and 2021 again with cheap cards that boom because there are no cheap cards anymore and there are no affordable ways to grade them either.

that's a very good point. If people weren't around for the doldrums of 2009-2015, then stacking base rookies for cheap and flipping PSA 10's was the way to build... or just getting lucky in group breaks. Now that grading is only profitable for PSA and the card companies have upped their wax prices 2-5x, there is nothing left for the short-term flippers. Many will leave, if they haven't already.

Perhaps Fanatics will come up with something to bring back the gambling/flipping crowd, but for the mean time, the true collectors could have a nice window of opportunity here.

[KhalDrogo]

It won't matter if PSA lowers the entry level grading fee to $10. The crap people were sending in during the boom is never going to be desirable again. The market will not be able to support sellers profiting off a pop 5k Bol Bol Prizm PSA 10. Superstar base rookies from any set will still be worth grading. For the junk sets like Mosaic, every other rookie is dead.

[k13]

No one will buy those graded cards anymore so people will just lose more money at whatever price psa is at.

Maybe don't open overpriced garbage wax to try and recoup your gamble with garbage graded cards that no one wants.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It won't matter if PSA lowers the entry level grading fee to $10. The crap people were sending in during the boom is never going to be desirable again. The market will not be able to support sellers profiting off a pop 5k Bol Bol Prizm PSA 10. Superstar base rookies from any set will still be worth grading. For the junk sets like Mosaic, every other rookie is dead.

You are talking about base, right Khal? The biggest benefit I can see for, say, Economy at 30 are the Silvers and Mosaics. I don't mind those.

I'm glad the grade all base fad is over.

[k13]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

You are talking about base, right Khal? The biggest benefit I can see for, say, Economy at 30 are the Silvers and Mosaics. I don't mind those.

I'm glad the grade all base fad is over.

Lot of silvers of top players cost less than the cost of grading.
Even though pops are lower than 50...

That's how big this market is.

[TradingCardsLLC]

Originally Posted by fadster

Which Pele is it? There is no minimum threshold for the weekly auctions, if something goes unsold at the $10 minimum bid they keep the card. Did you submit for the Premier auction as that has a min of $25k value (but there is flexibility on that)?

no way in hell would it go unsold for $10. I submitted it to their new CSG grading weekly auction thing. First they sent me a confirmation that the card was being sent to grading and then I received an email saying the card was rejected after all and they sent it back to me. The funny part is that they have literally sold this exact card in low grade for hundreds of dollars. Literally on their own website on their own weekly auction. The exact same card. In a PSA 1 it sold for $400. They could literally search the card on their own site and see that it sold for a decent amount. AND they never responded to my email pointing this out to them. What incompetents!