Michael Jordan RC, PSA 10, shatters 100k !!!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Maybe you remember Khal.

PSA 10 pop is 317.

Did we gain one from when this madness started because I could have sworn it was 316? I feel like I had Stone Cold for my pneumonic device locked in my head.

It was either 312 or 316. I can only think of one new serial # PSA 10 that I have seen. Think it was sold recently.

Don't think we'll see many more new 10s. And before people go cracking out 9s and BGS 9.5s, don't forget many of these copies were molested.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It was either 312 or 316. I can only think of one new serial # PSA 10 that I have seen. Think it was sold recently.

Don't think we'll see many more new 10s. And before people go cracking out 9s and BGS 9.5s, don't forget many of these copies were molested.

It was 312 in January

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I’m showing a sale of $175K for a 9.5 (admittedly it’s eBay BO and I can’t see if it’s min or true). But with that data now the numbers look a bit different.

Obviously I’d want the BGS, because even if we go from that $175K and lose ~75% to where it is now, thats a smaller total amount than going from $720K to $295K and losing ~55%.

I guess it’s relative to your bankroll and where you’ve put your money though?

If you go by Goldin, peak sale of a min gem mint was $79,200 in Jan. A PSA 10 sold for 720K in the same auction. Min gem mints sold for 60 to 80K during the January peak. A BGS 9.5 True Gem sold for 144K around the same time at Goldin.

[KhalDrogo]

Peak is $91k through PWCC on 3/18.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

If you go by Goldin, peak sale of a min gem mint was 79,200 in Jan. A PSA 10 sold for 720K in the same auction.

https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/lo...kie_card___bgs

It was actually $103K in March (going by Goldin).

$103K to $44K is a ~55% drop. Greater than PSA percentage wise, but I’d still choose the BGS drop because I’d rather lose the smaller sum of money.

Edit: I guess my definition for min Gem could be different and thus my hesitance to put stock in BGS. Too many variables and I’m dumb.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/lo...kie_card___bgs

It was actually $103K in March (going by Goldin).

$103K to $44K is a ~55% drop. Greater than PSA percentage wise, but I’d still choose the BGS drop because I’d rather lose the smaller sum of money.

Is a card with a 10 sub grade a min gem? One of the true unsolved mysteries of the hobby.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/lo...kie_card___bgs

It was actually $103K in March (going by Goldin).

$103K to $44K is a ~55% drop. Greater than PSA percentage wise, but I’d still choose the BGS drop because I’d rather lose the smaller sum of money.

Edit: I guess my definition for min Gem could be different and thus my hesitance to put stock in BGS. Too many variables and I’m dumb.

When I mentioned min gem, I was referring to subs 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

When I mentioned min gem, I was referring to subs 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5

That’s why I said I was dumb. I still stand buy that EVEN IF the $175K on eBay was a min gem in January (or the $150K or $120K also on eBay in January) and the drop percentage wise was bigger than PSA, I’d still rather have bought the BGS.

At a certain level, pure dollars matter more than percentages.

I don’t care if someone can return 400% turning $0.25 cents into $1. Scale matters. This is why I also prefer things like stocks as investments vs. cards. Easier to scale.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Peak is $91k through PWCC on 3/18.

If you go by pwcc, most recent sale of min gem mint is 60K last week, so a 31K drop since peak

Goldin sales: PSA 10: 720K in Jan to 288K last week , BGS 9.5 min gem 79.2K in Jan to 44K last week. A 432K drop in value vs 35K in value

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

If you go by pwcc, most recent sale of min gem mint is 60K last week, so a 31K drop since peak

Goldin sales: PSA 10: 720K in Jan to 288K last week , BGS 9.5 min gem 79.2K in Jan to 44K last week. A 432K drop in value vs 35K in value

If you go by PWCC, a 1997 MJ ASG Jersey Auto is only worth $94k.

You can’t isolate an auction house just to better fit your narrative.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If you go by PWCC, a 1997 MJ ASG Jersey Auto is only worth $94k.

You can’t isolate an auction house just to better fit your narrative.

Even if you want to combine all auctions including pwcc and different time frame ( Peak sale of psa 10 in January and peak sale of min gem mint in March), we are looking at a 47K price drop on min gem min vs 432K price drop in psa 10 prices.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

That’s why I said I was dumb. I still stand buy that EVEN IF the $175K on eBay was a min gem in January (or the $150K or $120K also on eBay in January) and the drop percentage wise was bigger than PSA, I’d still rather have bought the BGS.

At a certain level, pure dollars matter more than percentages.

I don’t care if someone can return 400% turning $0.25 cents into $1. Scale matters. This is why I also prefer things like stocks as investments vs. cards. Easier to scale.

You are not dumb

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Even if you want to combine all auctions including pwcc and different time frame ( Peak sale of psa 10 in January and peak sale of min gem mint in March), we are looking at a 47K price drop on min gem min vs 432K price drop in psa 10 prices.

Dollar value is not the way to compare two cards that are in different echelons of the hobby.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Dollar value is not the way to compare two cards that are in different echelons of the hobby.

I share a different opinion on dollar value especially on a card with pop of 317 (PSA 10) vs 526 (BGS 9.5). Grading is subjective and neither of them are rare. If it is a rare serial numbered card, my approach on dollar value would be different. The rise and fall of PSA 10 Jordan Fleer prices will be a great learning lesson for many years to come. It might make investors rethink whether it is worth paying significant premium for a PSA 10 on a card which is not rare or scarce. In case of Jordan Fleer, #57 the difference in premium multiple between PSA 10 and BGS 9.5 True Gem was almost 5X during the peak.

EDIT: I own both PSA 10's and BGS 9.5's in my collection

[KhalDrogo]

BGS is in the toilet. The spread for the iconic cards of the hobby grows by the day. And BGS is doing nothing to help prices. Awful customer service, awful turnaround times, and zero innovation over the years to the transparency of where your cards are in the grading process. The fewer people that use their services, the lower their prices go.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

BGS is in the toilet. The spread for the iconic cards of the hobby grows by the day. And BGS is doing nothing to help prices. Awful customer service, awful turnaround times, and zero innovation over the years to the transparency of where your cards are in the grading process. The fewer people that use their services, the lower their prices go.

Does it (PSA vs BGS) really matter at this point on a card like this when the prices are in the toilet compared to the peak. If I was new to the hobby and want to take a conservative approach in investing and pick a #57 now, I would buy a BGS 8.5 or 9 with nice centering after seeing the rise and fall in PSA 10 slab prices (430K).

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Does it (PSA vs BGS) really matter at this point on a card like this when the prices are in the toilet (430K drop) compared to the peak. If I was new to the hobby and want to take a conservative approach in investing, I would buy a BGS 8.5 or 9 with nice centering after seeing the rise and fall in PSA slab prices (dollar value wise).

Of course it matters. BGS slabs (any card) have seen just as big a fall percentage wise as PSA. You keep harping on dollar value, but that doesn’t matter. Percentage matters. Because your buyer of an 86F PSA 10 is different than your buyer of an 86F BGS 9.5. Two different investors.

I play in the <$5k range. A $1k card that is now $250 isn’t a better buy to me than a $4k card that is now $1k. If I believe in the card’s potential, the now $1k card is a better buy to me because it’s one transaction that can net me thousands.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Of course it matters. BGS slabs (any card) have seen just as big a fall percentage wise as PSA. You keep harping on dollar value, but that doesn’t matter. Percentage matters. Because your buyer of an 86F PSA 10 is different than your buyer of an 86F BGS 9.5. Two different investors.

I play in the <$5k range. A $1k card that is now $250 isn’t a better buy to me than a $4k card that is now $1k. If I believe in the card’s potential, the now $1k card is a better buy to me because it’s one transaction that can net me thousands.

When the market crashed in 2008, some of my friends and colleagues who had more than million dollars in 401K were not talking about percentage drop. They were upset at the dollar value drop. One guy who had 4.5 million in 401K at that time was whining that he lost 1, 1.5, 2 million as market kept crashing. Even millionaires pay attention to dollar value during market crashes and bull runs. So lets not downplay the dollar value, which in this case is 430K from the peak.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Of course it matters. BGS slabs (any card) have seen just as big a fall percentage wise as PSA. You keep harping on dollar value, but that doesn’t matter. Percentage matters. Because your buyer of an 86F PSA 10 is different than your buyer of an 86F BGS 9.5. Two different investors.

I play in the <$5k range. A $1k card that is now $250 isn’t a better buy to me than a $4k card that is now $1k. If I believe in the card’s potential, the now $1k card is a better buy to me because it’s one transaction that can net me thousands.

Different strokes Khal.

Neither is right or wrong, just risk/reward appetite is all.

[arod305]

So are my 86 Fleer MJ's worthless now? Dammit!

Seriously, I am a buyer on PSA 9 & BGS 9.5 at these prices long term. They will fluctuate which is fine. However, long term the 86 Fleer is probably the most iconic sports card a vast majority of people can afford in some grade.

No need to be worried or short sighted on MJ long term. Now if you were buying min gems at $100k that maybe a different story.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Different strokes Khal.

Neither is right or wrong, just risk/reward appetite is all.

Agree, but don't just assume millionaires do not care about dollar value drop. They whine as much as we do when it comes to money.

[Tommy1380]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

When the market crashed in 2008, some of my friends and colleagues who had more than million dollars in 401K were not talking about percentage drop. They were upset at the dollar value drop. Even millionaires pay attention to dollar value during market crashes and bull runs. So lets not downplay the dollar value, which in this case in 430K from the peak.

Regardless of whether they have $300,000 or $3,000,000, the ones who are fixated on dollar gains and losses are the investors that often end up losing their behinds because they don't understand percentages.

Investor A might have $3,000,000 and after a bear market have a value of $2,200,000. (down $800,000)

Investor B might have $300,000 and after the same bear market have a value of $180,000. (down $120,000)

Investor A was the one whose investments did better, but if he doesn't understand the percentages (as opposed to dollar values) then he probably doesn't realize that and is more likely to sell out and lock in a loss. And believe me, there are a lot of investors who actually think that way.

Just like the BGS and PSA Jordans, it's all relative.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Agree, but don't just assume millionaires do not care about dollar value drop. They whine as much as we do when it comes to money.

Who is hurting more?

The guy who sees his portfolio go from $10M to $5M?

Or the guy who sees his portfolio go from $100k to $25k?

Assuming they both live their lives appropriate for their means.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Tommy1380

Regardless of whether they have $300,000 or $3,000,000, the ones who are fixated on dollar gains and losses are the investors that often end up losing their behinds because they don't understand percentages.

Investor A might have $3,000,000 and after a bear market have a value of $2,200,000. (down $800,000)

Investor B might have $300,000 and after the same bear market have a value of $180,000. (down $120,000)

Investor A was the one whose investments did better, but if he doesn't understand the percentages (as opposed to dollar values) then he probably doesn't realize that and is more likely to sell out and lock in a loss. And believe me, there are a lot of investors who actually think that way.

Just like the BGS and PSA Jordans, it's all relative.

The guy who had 4.5 million in 401K and was whining about dollar value drop invested more during the crash. He is a smart guy. Sports cards market is different from stocks. If anything, I consider dollar value drop as important in sports cards because there is no certainty that you will get your money back if you hold on to it long term unlike stock market. What is the likelihood of PSA 10 prices getting back to 700K and what is the time frame.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Who is hurting more?

The guy who sees his portfolio go from $10M to $5M?

Or the guy who sees his portfolio go from $100k to $25k?

Assuming they both live their lives appropriate for their means.

If your intention was alternate investment, i.e, make profits but the portfolio value dropped by 50%, it all comes down to the likelihood of $5M going back up again to $10M (break even) and $50K going back to $100K. If it is unlikely, $5M loss looks worse than 50K loss. Yes, it is 50% drop in both cases but the likelihood of portfolio regaining its value is also important, which applies to sports cards.