2019-20 Donruss Elite

[Pathora]

I didn't realize the Spellbounds have a different player picture on each letter. That's pretty cool and surprised Panini didn't get lazy and use 1 picture total.

(Wish he was doing something more than holding the ball, but 1 step at a time.)

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by guru

I got 49 boxes. I'm in these too high probably. Oh well. It was fun.

Started buying at bought a case as high as $400 and another case as low at $267 Plus a ton in between.

Looking forward to your rip sir! Good luck!

[Bruin7]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

These are my Zion estimates, feel free to counter them:

Zion Base (/299): $200
Zion Blue (/99): $300
Zion Purple (/49): $400
Zion Gold (/10): $1000
Zion Aspirations (/99): $350
Zion Status (/1): $3000

That would put the total Zion base/parallels cap at around 160k or 22 bucks per box or so.

Way too low on the /299 RC. I'll buy every single one at that price lol.

[phil]

Originally Posted by Burgerkingguy

Anyone else think these boxes are gonna be $600 once breaks start happening?

With regular Donruss going for $800 why not. Might have to dry up a bit first, but it will.

[rippev]

Originally Posted by phil

With regular Donruss going for $800 why not. Might have to dry up a bit first, but it will.

Is that seriously what hobby is up to?? Insane.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by phil

With regular Donruss going for $800 why not. Might have to dry up a bit first, but it will.

Last auction sale was $502, which is still ridiculous for Donruss.

[KhalDrogo]

Donruss has a really high floor. Near complete base set and 60 inserts/parallels. Easy to hit inserts like Marvels and Crunch Time that sell very well. Every box price has to be evaluated in the context of the value you get if you grade.

[rippev]

Bounty opens up at $350 from BO.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Way too low on the /299 RC. I'll buy every single one at that price lol.

You are the second person to say that so I guess you guys have a point.

Let's assume it's 20% higher for all. That would the value of the Zion at 26 per box. Include the autos and it's somewhere around 50.

Then add Ja and LeBron (base, inserts, parallels) at the same and you get 100. Add the other top vets/rookies (Luka, Coby, Rui, RJ) and make it 150.

Without anything else, each box should give back around 150 bucks. That would put the value of the box on the open market somewhere between 300 and 450 (people rip expecting 33-50% ROI on average IMO). And that's before you add Giannis, Curry, Trae or other rookies. Much less other players autos like Barkley, Bird, AD or AI.

[Pathora]

Originally Posted by rippev

Bounty opens up at $350 from BO.

I see $325 not $350.

[yiguiri2002]

Did a quick math on the inserts, if they all have the same print run, there's 600 copies of each. How much do you guys think the JAMES or DONCIC nameplate are worth? Will Giannis be more expensive than LeBron since his last name has way more letters?

[Pathora]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Did a quick math on the inserts, if they all have the same print run, there's 600 copies of each. How much do you guys think the JAMES or DONCIC nameplate are worth? Will Giannis be more expensive than LeBron since his last name has way more letters?

I assume the opposite actually with Giannis vs LeBron for individual letters. It's 2.5 times more likely a Giannis will be pulled.

[Tonic3]

Ok, so my math obsessed brain felt like doing some more detective/calculation work.

I decided to calculate the odds of pulling a 1/1 out of a box. Since each insert, auto, base, etc... in the set has a Black 1/1 version so it actually adds up to quite a few. Also, there are 11 vets and 6 rookies that will have two "base" 1/1's because of the status/aspirations parallels.

So in total, counting all auto, insert, and base 1/1's I get a grand total of 366.

If we continue to assume 7,475 boxes then the odds of pulling a 1/1 in a box is 366/7,475 = 4.896%.

So right around a 5% chance in every box to pull a 1/1
.
.
.
And one more calculation...........the Zion's
Zion has a total of 598 rookie cards ranging from #/299 down to 1/1 and a total 211 auto's. That means each box (assuming even distribution) has a 809/7475 = 10.82% chance of pulling some sort of Zion (either auto or rookie).
.
.
Ok, one more calculation..........Ja Morant
Ja also has a total 598 rookies but has 219 total auto's. That puts his overall odds at 817/7475 = 10.93% chance per box.
.
.
Total Ja/Zion chance per box is approximately 10.82% + 10.93% = 21.75%


These numbers are of course oversimplified because it assumes perfect distribution but it gives us an idea.

[phil]

Originally Posted by Pathora

I see $325 not $350.

Probably not too many here selling at either.

[guru]

1 in 5 boxes gets a Zion or Ja !!!

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Ok, so my math obsessed brain felt like doing some more detective/calculation work.

I decided to calculate the odds of pulling a 1/1 out of a box. Since each insert, auto, base, etc... in the set has a Black 1/1 version so it actually adds up to quite a few. Also, there are 11 vets and 6 rookies that will have two "base" 1/1's because of the status/aspirations parallels.

So in total, counting all auto, insert, and base 1/1's I get a grand total of 366.

If we continue to assume 7,475 boxes then the odds of pulling a 1/1 in a box is 366/7,475 = 4.896%.

So right around a 5% chance in every box to pull a 1/1
.
.
.
And one more calculation...........the Zion's
Zion has a total of 598 rookie cards ranging from #/299 down to 1/1 and a total 211 auto's. That means each box (assuming even distribution) has a 809/7475 = 10.82% chance of pulling some sort of Zion (either auto or rookie).
.
.
Ok, one more calculation..........Ja Morant
Ja also has a total 598 rookies but has 219 total auto's. That puts his overall odds at 817/7475 = 10.93% chance per box.
.
.
Total Ja/Zion chance per box is approximately 10.82% + 10.93% = 21.75%


These numbers are of course oversimplified because it assumes perfect distribution but it gives us an idea.

[chrispy987]

Tracking on my case shows I should have it on Wednesday to Maryland with Fedex ground as the shipping method.

We should see breaks early next week.

[jnmcards]

Originally Posted by chrispy987

Tracking on my case shows I should have it on Wednesday to Maryland with Fedex ground as the shipping method.

We should see breaks early next week.

Interesting. I have 60 boxes coming and none of them have even shipped yet.

[Burgerkingguy]

I’m in Indianapolis and I’ve got confirmation for my boxes. Coming Tuesday. I pulled out my crystal ball for a prediction; Once those first few breaks happen, these are gonna go up a bit. And then once those singles start hitting eBay, I expect them to go up even more. Those spellbound inserts are tight and with only 600 of each insert printed, Collectors are gonna be chasing em’. I’m getting the LUKA set one way or another. Lol

[TimBuckTwo]

I believe these go to $800 in the near term.

[IndyKMB]

I'm in Indy as well, but have yet to receive delivery confirmation. Hoping mine falls in line with yours!

[packfan15412]

I have not gotten any delivery conf as well! I got 4 boxes

[bcubs]

My case is scheduled for delivery Wednesday in central Illinois.

[packfan15412]

Did you get an email from Panini?

Originally Posted by bcubs

My case is scheduled for delivery Wednesday in central Illinois.

[bcubs]

Originally Posted by packfan15412

Did you get an email from Panini?

I got a shipment email then a text from fedex.

[rippev]

Somebody already got them in hand. Photo up on eBay. Mine haven’t shipped yet.