The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

5571 coming up that's the "liberation day" gap just have to make it past 5550

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

5571 coming up that's the "liberation day" gap just have to make it past 5550

Finally - all out here

[Blazed]

Today should be fun

GDP in 10 min

[Blazed]

Perfect day for fear mongering lol. Hit pieces are coming in hot

Tech earnings the rest of the week and NFP Friday

SPX: 5500 key level (gap @ 5505.7) / 5575 (5550 resistance) / 5400 (5408 support)

[Blazed]

More data in 5

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Perfect day for fear mongering lol. Hit pieces are coming in hot

Tech earnings the rest of the week and NFP Friday

SPX: 5500 key level (gap @ 5505.7) / 5575 (5550 resistance) / 5400 (5408 support)

Didn't get down to 5400/08 so wait for the reclaim of whole psych (5450) then was in calls

Still have 2 runners I'll hold unless the 15 min closes below 5500



People who understood why GDP contracted were buying this morning

Its usually a good idea to follow VIX during periods of uncertainty along with flow

Still have some major downside if the media keeps pushing the recession/tariffs narrative

[Blazed]

Watching TSLA tomorrow - it's only down 4 points right now

How stupid can the board be? TSLA might dip off this if the media beats it to death

BREAKING: TESLA BOARD OF DIRECTORS HAVE JUST OPENED A SEARCH FOR A CEO TO SUCCEED ELON MUSK PER WSJ

[Blazed]

EOM flows helped push the market up at close yesterday. MM's have to rebalance so it was no surprise after the heavy selling last month

AAPL & AMZN after the bell. Still talking about tariffs but it's calming down for now. The media is still hammering on it and so are some companies so I'll keep watching it

PMI, manufacturing and construction spending on deck today

SPX: 5600 key level (gap @ 5582) / 5700 (5650res) / 5535 (5550sup)

SPY: SPY bounce 554.7 area

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Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX daily 50 not too far away - 5650

Unless earnings or something else happens, should be able to hit it soon

See what GOOG does

SPX daily 50 not too far away - 5650 should be able to hit it soon✅- exactly why I was loading up on SPY calls and tech equity/calls

All you have to do is learn to read the charts, and of course, pay attention to data/events

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX daily 50 not too far away - 5650

Unless earnings or something else happens, should be able to hit it soon

See what GOOG does

As expected




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Worth noting

Hassett says tariffs news expected by the end of the day

Should be interesting, something to keep in mind if you're in positions you can't afford to go red on



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Homebuilding will be one of the big themes going forward "restoring the American dream" is Pulte's new phrase - I'll be watching homebuilders and lenders

Pulte and current admin want more affordable homes and prices to come down

FNMA/FMCC pumped off the news

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX: 5600 key level (gap @ 5582) / 5700 (5650res) / 5535 (5550sup)

SPY: SPY bounce 554.7 area

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SPX: (5650res)✅- took the reject, another great day in the books






Rejected as expected. Flow started selling, system said short

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by Blazed

AAPL & AMZN after the bell. Still talking about tariffs but it's calming down for now. The media is still hammering on it and so are some companies so I'll keep watching it

Just curious as to why you would expect companies/the media NOT to talk about tariffs? They’re by far the greatest threat to the stock market and economy so isn’t that what they should be talking about?

Did you listen to Chipotle’s earning call? They beat expected earnings by a penny but gave an excellent real-life scenario as to how tariffs could affect their future earnings.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

Just curious as to why you would expect companies/the media NOT to talk about tariffs? They’re by far the greatest threat to the stock market and economy so isn’t that what they should be talking about?

Stop parroting the media. Tariffs aren't the greatest threat

That comment shows you have no clue about tariffs and what they're trying to do by implementing them

Did you listen to Chipotle’s earning call? They beat expected earnings by a penny but gave an excellent real-life scenario as to how tariffs could affect their future earnings.

If they only beat earnings by a penny before tariffs, they have way more problems than tariffs

[KhalDrogo]

China caving on fentanyl as a precursor to getting tariff discussions rolling. Wasn’t but last week where all the smartest people in the room said China had Trump by the balls.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

China caving on fentanyl as a precursor to getting tariff discussions rolling. Wasn’t but last week where all the smartest people in the room said China had Trump by the balls.

I saw that. Those are the same people sitting all cash and parrot the media as the market erased losses from April 2nd


For everyone else

China signals willingness to tackle U.S. fentanyl concerns in effort to restart trade negotiations, according to Reuters.

Just-In: China -US Trade Talks Start with Fentanyl

"Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s security czar, Wang Xiaohong, in recent days has been inquiring about what the Trump team wants China to do when it comes to fentanyl"

China didn't have a choice, the reciprocal tariffs by them were funny, but China knew it wasn't sustainable

Only options they had were to devalue the yuan or push it's debt off the charts and the current admin knew that

The media however was pumping China up.... lol

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Stop parroting the media. Tariffs aren't the greatest threat

That comment shows you have no clue about tariffs and what they're trying to do by implementing them

Parroting the media?! Yikes. What I wrote isn’t my opinion, it’s the opinion of nearly every economist, on the right and left.

Look, if you want to live in conspiracy theories, have at it. But try to think critically about what tariffs do. They’re a tax on US consumers, plain and simple. That’s what will affect the economy if trump continues them. I don’t think he will, I think he’ll cave again, for the record. But to say it’s the “media” that’s doing this?!

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

Parroting the media?! Yikes. What I wrote isn’t my opinion, it’s the opinion of nearly every economist, on the right and left.

Look, if you want to live in conspiracy theories, have at it. But try to think critically about what tariffs do. They’re a tax on US consumers, plain and simple. That’s what will affect the economy if trump continues them. I don’t think he will, I think he’ll cave again, for the record. But to say it’s the “media” that’s doing this?!

You are in over your head. Good luck.

[KhalDrogo]

Tariffs were already priced in prior to April 2. All the “experts” love to ignore that the market traded down 7.8% from the mid-February high to the close on April 2. The degree of tariffs were not priced in. Hence the sell-off. But like I said before, the sell-off and commentary around it was such that you would have believed the most likely outcome from all this was not a single trade deal for anyone, and a permanent embargo on trade with China. It was ridiculous.

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

China caving on fentanyl as a precursor to getting tariff discussions rolling. Wasn’t but last week where all the smartest people in the room said China had Trump by the balls.

First domino to fall, you love to see it!

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

Parroting the media?! Yikes. What I wrote isn’t my opinion, it’s the opinion of nearly every economist, on the right and left.

Look, if you want to live in conspiracy theories, have at it. But try to think critically about what tariffs do. They’re a tax on US consumers, plain and simple. That’s what will affect the economy if trump continues them. I don’t think he will, I think he’ll cave again, for the record. But to say it’s the “media” that’s doing this?!

I know what tariffs do

It is the media fear mongering

Have you seen the media say Pelosi, Obama, Sanders and Schumer were all calling for reciprocal tariffs on China going back to 1988 I think, or maybe earlier?

Now think about why they haven't

Tariffs level the playing field and bring in revenue which in turn will allow tax cuts

If tariffs can replace income tax, which has been floating around, I'd be fine with that

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by Sticks33

Just curious as to why you would expect companies/the media NOT to talk about tariffs? They’re by far the greatest threat to the stock market and economy so isn’t that what they should be talking about?

Did you listen to Chipotle’s earning call? They beat expected earnings by a penny but gave an excellent real-life scenario as to how tariffs could affect their future earnings.

The real danger in the market is what no one sees coming. That’s always been the nature of risk. It’s the unknown that hits the hardest.

Everyone knows about tariffs. Keep on getting lost in the tariff noise.

[Blazed]

Mainly watching today, PMI is about 15 mins and FOMC Wednesday

SPX: 5650 is key / 5700 (5730) / 5600 (5560)

Market might chop in a range while waiting on Weds

Might try something if it hits implied bottom

[Blazed]

Strong economy

The share of credit card users making only minimum monthly payments has risen to the highest level in 12 years - per Bloomberg

[Blazed]

FOMC in 45

The down move before FOMC this morning was interesting

Wont be shocked if we get a 120 point FOMC candle to the upside, lots of levels to retest above

120 points from 5601 to around 5720 - they left a few points up at 5724 so today would be a good day to get it

The only thing that would cause a massive dump is a rate hike

A rate cut will cause a massive pump then dump because we need to dump anyway

Pump to 5750, then dump to 4900 is what I'd like to see at some point

And for the clueless, read the economy. We're basically in a recession but they won't call it that yet

[Blazed]

Trump set a tariff speech right before the fed... smh lol

You can't make this goofy stuff up

[Blazed]

Wonder what it's gonna be about

TRUMP: BIG NEWS CONFERENCE TOMORROW 10AM EST IN OVAL, MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH A BIG & HIGHLY RESPECTED COUNTRY