Michael Jordan RC, PSA 10, shatters 100k !!!

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by kefskala

we can all make predictions, not as if you will get fired or fined if you are wrong. as long as the psa 10 stays above 400k for the next ten sales I think #57 will be fine...new bases are being built everyday....

The 10's will also keep steadily falling. Too many cards.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

The 10's will also keep steadily falling. Too many cards.

You keep saying this "too many card" thing but I don't get it. As with my Apple stocks/shares example there can be millions of them out there but as long as demand is there, the price won't fall just from that. If it's that there are too many sellers relative to buyers *now* than before, then that's different.

Perhaps you can explain how the total number of units of a good, not changing all that much (the pop reports grow rather slowly and probably rather predictably for something like this card), can explain big short-term price fluctuations.

[Thunderdunk]

I think the PSA 10 #57 is a million dollar card. There are at least 10,000 people in the world that want that card at all cost and they will pay dearly when the supply dries up. I think it got ahead of itself and is filling the gap right now. But once the supply disappears...and it will. The people paying big $ for these cards, will hold hold hold.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

You keep saying this "too many card" thing but I don't get it. As with my Apple stocks/shares example there can be millions of them out there but as long as demand is there, the price won't fall just from that. If it's that there are too many sellers relative to buyers *now* than before, then that's different.

Perhaps you can explain how the total number of units of a good, not changing all that much (the pop reports grow rather slowly and probably rather predictably for something like this card), can explain big short-term price fluctuations.

if AAPL shot up to $2000 in the next 2 months, without announcing any new products or positive earnings reports, your analogy would be better

Originally Posted by Thunderdunk

I think the PSA 10 #57 is a million dollar card. There are at least 10,000 people in the world that want that card at all cost and they will pay dearly when the supply dries up. I think it got ahead of itself and is filling the gap right now. But once the supply disappears...and it will. The people paying big $ for these cards, will hold hold hold.

there are millions of people out there who want the card, sure. spending a million dollars though? naw. anyone who wanted it that bad and had a lot of money could have had it for $50k a year ago. why would they suddenly need it so bad they would drop a million on it now?

[Thunderdunk]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

if AAPL shot up to $2000 in the next 2 months, without announcing any new products or positive earnings reports, your analogy would be better





there are millions of people out there who want the card, sure. spending a million dollars though? naw. anyone who wanted it that bad and had a lot of money could have had it for $50k a year ago. why would they suddenly need it so bad they would drop a million on it now?

Industry has changed. Even Mark Cuban and Kevin Durant are in on the action. There are a lot of those type guys that are "collecting" now. That were not "collecting" when the card was 50K... Simple as that.

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Thunderdunk

Industry has changed. Even Mark Cuban and Kevin Durant are in on the action. There are a lot of those type guys that are "collecting" now. That were not "collecting" when the card was 50K... Simple as that.

those guys aren't buying individual cards as investment, they're investing in infrastructure to take a piece of the wave. Cuban isn't dumb, you think he wants to take the risk of purchasing cards that have experienced 1000% runups?

if your addressable market is "dumb rich people with FU money", then sure it's possible you can continue making record sales, but my bet would be those buyers run out before the cards do

[Thunderdunk]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

those guys aren't buying individual cards as investment, they're investing in infrastructure to take a piece of the wave. Cuban isn't dumb, you think he wants to take the risk of purchasing cards that have experienced 1000% runups?

if your addressable market is "dumb rich people with FU money", then sure it's possible you can continue making record sales, but my bet would be those buyers run out before the cards do

Yeah on all the Chrome/Prizm and other mass produced stuff the buyers will run out. The #57... different story. As I said before, there are at least 10,000 people with extreme disposable income that will push the prices of the #57 to a million in PSA 10 when supply disappears. And supply will dry up. Lebron /99 Exquisite is another, Brady /100 Contenders, Tiger SP /100 Gold, Rice PSA 10 RC, Gretzky OPC, MESSI PSA 10, Charizard PSA 10.. There are a handful of cards like this and its not really hard to see. Just as any industry, cream rises to the top and stays.

And I disagree... KD and Cuban are buying cards they want and Investing in the infrastructure. So are a lot of other well to do individuals. Just look at Nat Turner. Ken Goldin has talked about this several times on his interviews and IG Live discussions. Said he has people with Millions of Dollars sitting in their Goldin accounts that are buying cards from his platform. Get on Instagram Live when Ken Goldin goes on there. He is not blowing smoke at people. He is telling you what the industry is doing.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

if AAPL shot up to $2000 in the next 2 months, without announcing any new products or positive earnings reports, your analogy would be better





there are millions of people out there who want the card, sure. spending a million dollars though? naw. anyone who wanted it that bad and had a lot of money could have had it for $50k a year ago. why would they suddenly need it so bad they would drop a million on it now?

This is correct right here. The card did not rise organically - it was manipulated. Didn’t an investor in the auction that sold it “buy” the card. That does not raise a flag with anyone? 🤔 It is the greatest basketball card in the game, but it is not as rare as Mantle rookies in PSA 10. 300+ compared to 3 PSA 10’s for Mantle. If you want a Jordan 9 or 10 you can buy one. If you want a Mantle 9 or 10 you can’t. Can barely find an 8 these days.

[Thirsty Whale]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

It is the greatest basketball card in the game, but it is not as rare as Mantle rookies in PSA 10. 300+ compared to 3 PSA 10’s for Mantle.

That's right, but the price tag isn't the same either. Mantle PSA 10 is most likely a $20 M+ card, while MJ PSA 10 is 450K, so Mantle right now is about 50x as expensive as MJ.

MJ's PSA 10 population is 100x higher than Mantle's (pop 300 vs pop 3), but I'm pretty sure that the buyer pool plus MJ's overall international popularity is at least 3-4x higher too, so based on that the current price for MJ PSA 10 looks fair to me.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

You keep saying this "too many card" thing but I don't get it. As with my Apple stocks/shares example there can be millions of them out there but as long as demand is there, the price won't fall just from that. If it's that there are too many sellers relative to buyers *now* than before, then that's different.

Perhaps you can explain how the total number of units of a good, not changing all that much (the pop reports grow rather slowly and probably rather predictably for something like this card), can explain big short-term price fluctuations.

Do you realize the size of the amount of money you are arguing for a card? Half a million plus? There are NOT enough people in the entire world that want that card at that price to keep values that high, which is why it’s dropping and will continue to do so.

And why? Yet again, because there are too many. If there were 25 PSA 10’s, that would be different.

The T206 Wagner is a superior investment in every respect because there are so few to go around. Same with Mantle in higher grades.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Do you realize the size of the amount of money you are arguing for a card? Half a million plus? There are NOT enough people in the entire world that want that card at that price to keep values that high, which is why it’s dropping and will continue to do so.

And why? Yet again, because there are too many. If there were 25 PSA 10’s, that would be different.

The T206 Wagner is a superior investment in every respect because there are so few to go around. Same with Mantle in higher grades.

Let’s just talk about the facts, there has been 11 sales for the Psa 10 the past three months averaging 500k, there are currently another 4 for sale that end with in a week that are currently around 400k. Supply with soon dry up. There are collectors that hold this card that will just not sale because of what the price is. 316 Psa 10 for a modern card isn’t a lot. Not as rare as mantle, the numbers are the numbers but a mantle Psa 10 was also at 500k at one point....

[Thirsty Whale]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Do you realize the size of the amount of money you are arguing for a card? Half a million plus? There are NOT enough people in the entire world that want that card at that price to keep values that high, which is why it’s dropping and will continue to do so.

And why? Yet again, because there are too many. If there were 25 PSA 10’s, that would be different.

The T206 Wagner is a superior investment in every respect because there are so few to go around. Same with Mantle in higher grades.

Based on the latest 2020 World Ultra Wealth report there are 290,000 individuals with a net worth of $30 M+ (105,080 in North America, 77,860 in Europe and 83,310 in Asia).

I know someone who purchased one recently for 510K for long term hold and his net worth is about $7-8 M.

I'm pretty sure you are underestimating how many people can and are willing to afford this amount of money for the most popular trading card of the hobby. And those guys who are just looking for a relatively easily accessible investment piece without knowing anything about the hobby, they'll choose the 57 PSA 10, not the PMG Green or Red or any super rare card that requires some knowledge about the hobby.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by Thirsty Whale

Based on the latest 2020 World Ultra Wealth report there are 290,000 individuals with a net worth of $30 M+ (105,080 in North America, 77,860 in Europe and 83,310 in Asia).

I know someone who purchased one recently for 510K for long term hold and his net worth is about $7-8 M.

I'm pretty sure you are underestimating how many people can and are willing to afford this amount of money for the most popular trading card of the hobby. And those guys who are just looking for a relatively easily accessible investment piece without knowing anything about the hobby, they'll choose the 57 PSA 10, not the PMG Green or Red or any super rare card that requires some knowledge about the hobby.

If that's true, why are the prices dropping? By your logic, the card should be well over a million by now.

I didn't say there weren't millions of people that could AFFORD to buy one, I said they aren't enough people that are WILLING to buy one at 500,000+. The guy you knew who purchased one at 510K made an awful investment.

The new floor on that card will end up being around $100K. Still a very impressive rise and a huge price on a mass-produced card with hundreds of 10's.

And fellas, don't get upset about my take, it's a meaningless opinion. I'm enjoying this debate.

[Thirsty Whale]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

If that's true, why are the prices dropping? By your logic, the card should be well over a million by now.

I didn't say there weren't millions of people that could AFFORD to buy one, I said they aren't enough people that are WILLING to buy one at 500,000+. The guy you knew who purchased one at 510K made an awful investment.

The new floor on that card will end up being around $100K. Still a very impressive rise and a huge price on a mass-produced card with hundreds of 10's.

And fellas, don't get upset about my take, it's a meaningless opinion. I'm enjoying this debate.

Prices are dropping because there are corrections in every healthy market (stocks, crypto, trading cards), that's how new bottoms are made. Not sure what's the new floor, but I'm pretty sure that this card will never be a 100K card again. There are 3 for sale at Goldin and they are between 360-410K with 8 days left. The last few copies sold for 450-500K, so there won't be a huge drop again unless they stay where they're at right now without more bids which is very unlikely based on the fact that are 8 more days left for bidding.

Time will tell whether he's made a good or bad investment, but he is a smart guy, that's why he has $7-8 million at the age of 34.

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

If that's true, why are the prices dropping? By your logic, the card should be well over a million by now.

I didn't say there weren't millions of people that could AFFORD to buy one, I said they aren't enough people that are WILLING to buy one at 500,000+. The guy you knew who purchased one at 510K made an awful investment.

The new floor on that card will end up being around $100K. Still a very impressive rise and a huge price on a mass-produced card with hundreds of 10's.

And fellas, don't get upset about my take, it's a meaningless opinion. I'm enjoying this debate.

if you want an intelligent debate please don't throw out anecdotal numbers. I can entertain possibly, maybe and under certain caveat conditions a bottom of 250k but 100k is not a really number anymore....

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

If that's true, why are the prices dropping? By your logic, the card should be well over a million by now.

I didn't say there weren't millions of people that could AFFORD to buy one, I said they aren't enough people that are WILLING to buy one at 500,000+. The guy you knew who purchased one at 510K made an awful investment.

The new floor on that card will end up being around $100K. Still a very impressive rise and a huge price on a mass-produced card with hundreds of 10's.

And fellas, don't get upset about my take, it's a meaningless opinion. I'm enjoying this debate.

Do you own any stock? Ebb and flow of every market.

If the PSA 10 57 gets to $100k, I will be ecstatic because then I'd own a couple.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by kefskala

if you want an intelligent debate please don't throw out anecdotal numbers. I can entertain possibly, maybe and under certain caveat conditions a bottom of 250k but 100k is not a really number anymore....

You have to be specific if you want to have a fun debate. I'm sticking my neck out there on the floor of the 57, all in the next six months:

PSA 8: $4,500
PSA 9: $16,000
PSA 10: $100,000

BGS 9: $8,500
BGS 8.5: $4,500
BGS 8: $2,500

Remember, before you get all upset and start screaming obscenities at your screen, these are all still HUGE numbers over where the card was a year ago.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Do you own any stock? Ebb and flow of every market.

If the PSA 10 57 gets to $100k, I will be ecstatic because then I'd own a couple.

You think you'd be ecstatic right now because the card is much higher, but if/when it works it's way down to $100K, you'll be second-guessing yourself because you'll be concerned it will be dropping even lower.

Let's stop comparing cardboard to stocks. It's not the same, no matter how many times people try.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

You think you'd be ecstatic right now because the card is much higher, but if/when it works it's way down to $100K, you'll be second-guessing yourself because you'll be concerned it will be dropping even lower.

Let's stop comparing cardboard to stocks. It's not the same, no matter how many times people try.

Every asset has price action up and down. This is not a novel concept.

Why would I second guess myself? PSA 10 RC of the greatest athlete all the time, one of my favorite athletes, for less than the price of the car my wife wants? I'm not going to be too concerned at that level.

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Every asset has price action up and down. This is not a novel concept.

Why would I second guess myself? PSA 10 RC of the greatest athlete all the time, one of my favorite athletes, for less than the price of the car my wife wants? I'm not going to be too concerned at that level.

Fair enough, I appreciate your responses. I've stuck my neck out, I'd like to see some other people do the same so we can have fun revisiting this in six months. What do YOU think the values of the 57 will be in six months? Anyone else is welcome to fill these numbers out. Closest person in six months wins a set of steak knives.

PSA 8:
PSA 9:
PSA 10:

BGS 9:
BGS 8.5:
BGS 8:

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

You have to be specific if you want to have a fun debate. I'm sticking my neck out there on the floor of the 57, all in the next six months:

PSA 8: $4,500
PSA 9: $16,000
PSA 10: $100,000

BGS 9: $8,500
BGS 8.5: $4,500
BGS 8: $2,500

Remember, before you get all upset and start screaming obscenities at your screen, these are all still HUGE numbers over where the card was a year ago.

If you had to wager 100K on that there is no why you are placing that bet. Thanks for the entertainment thou...you actually got some sparks out of a few of us...

[GatorPie]

Originally Posted by kefskala

If you had to wager 100K on that there is no why you are placing that bet. Thanks for the entertainment thou...you actually got some sparks out of a few of us...

Of course I wouldn't. If I actually knew where the market was going in the future I'd be driving along the ocean in my Ferrari right now. Instead, I'm posting on Blowout.

Where do YOU see the prices at in six months?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Fair enough, I appreciate your responses. I've stuck my neck out, I'd like to see some other people do the same so we can have fun revisiting this in six months. What do YOU think the values of the 57 will be in six months? Anyone else is welcome to fill these numbers out. Closest person in six months wins a set of steak knives.

PSA 8:
PSA 9:
PSA 10:

BGS 9:
BGS 8.5:
BGS 8:

PSA 8: $13k
PSA 9: $35k
PSA 10: $600k

[kefskala]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Of course I wouldn't. If I actually knew where the market was going in the future I'd be driving along the ocean in my Ferrari right now. Instead, I'm posting on Blowout.

Where do YOU see the prices at in six months?

Like you said I would be driving a Ferrari if I knew... if you would have posted one year ago the the #57 psa 10 would be a 500K card in 8 months you would have gotten crucified...Demand is everything, people want what you have, the number of 500k for a psa 10 57 looks like it will stick, now up or down 10-15%? but 100K no way....

[ballhawkdawk]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Of course I wouldn't. If I actually knew where the market was going in the future I'd be driving along the ocean in my Ferrari right now. Instead, I'm posting on Blowout.

Where do YOU see the prices at in six months?

This is the question no one ever wants to answer in these debates across a number of different cards. Just "it's iconic and/or rare and should be expensive!" But when pushed on just how expensive it should reasonably be... crickets. Except Khal.