Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[JRX]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

You’re welcome. It was my pleasure. I was surprised at the numbers too.

Without a doubt, there is more interest in these cards than some of the doubters in this thread will admit.

I'm not saying there isn't interest, I'm just trying to parse the data to figure out how many people are really buying not viewing. Take Baller for instance, based on his printruns one could assume he's the most popular artist. The Ichiro is holding around 1k, though it also has some benefit from being card 1, but Thomas hasn't held its price and hasn't relative to Ichiro. There's 2.13x Thomas Baller cards but the Ichiro price is 6-7x Thomas.

Now Thomas could be less popular in general since his Rochester (another relatively unpopular artist) card has also dropped a lot. His Naturel (again doesn't seem to have a big following) had a relatively low print run by recent standards. i guess my point is there can't be 3k Baller collectors because there's only 2800 Baller Thomas and probably fewer considering what Baller himself bought. Its not trading at MSRP, but its also not showing signs of huge demand.

There's lots of different ways to collect this, but I'm just trying to understand pricing for some of these.

[RyanSwinger]

Originally Posted by JRX

I'm not saying there isn't interest, I'm just trying to parse the data to figure out how many people are really buying not viewing. Take Baller for instance, based on his printruns one could assume he's the most popular artist. The Ichiro is holding around 1k, though it also has some benefit from being card 1, but Thomas hasn't held its price and hasn't relative to Ichiro. There's 2.13x Thomas Baller cards but the Ichiro price is 6-7x Thomas.

Now Thomas could be less popular in general since his Rochester (another relatively unpopular artist) card has also dropped a lot. His Naturel (again doesn't seem to have a big following) had a relatively low print run by recent standards. i guess my point is there can't be 3k Baller collectors because there's only 2800 Baller Thomas and probably fewer considering what Baller himself bought. Its not trading at MSRP, but its also not showing signs of huge demand.

There's lots of different ways to collect this, but I'm just trying to understand pricing for some of these.

Frank Thomas simply isnt a popular player in this set. Ichiro's card was the first in everything- the first in the series, the first Ben Baller and the first Ichiro. With all that being said, I think the Thomas has plenty of room to run higher. Some cards will just take longer to get legs.

Price action in this series does not seem to follow perfect logic. Movement in Card A does not necessarily correlate to movement in Card B.

[ThoseBackPages]

GOOOOOOOOOOOD MORNING SPORTS CARD iNVESTOOOOOOOOOOOORS!!!!!!!!

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Bronxbomma

Hmm. I’m in the same boat. I racked up about -$1000 in negative equity in P2020. So I flipped a red refractor to stay at par. I did the flip not to make money but to just keep my balance sheet in check. The P2020 stain looked ugly and was a reflection of my poor purchasing decision on the 2° market. Here’s what I purchased on the 2° for premiums:

Beck Ripken - $450
Ermsy Trout - $1125
Taylor Ripken -285

I know it’s not that bad, but for the sake of transparency, I decided to disclose. Any one else pull the trigger too soon? Care to share?

Disclaimer: I still think there is inherent value in this set moving ahead once we weed out the novice collectors, bot trotters, and opportunistic flippers. Good luck!!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I've stated numerous times that this was the biggest hobby mistake I'd ever made and I just got caught up in the hype because of numerous factors both personal and hobby. "Technically" I'm 1500 up, but I know if I sold everything else that I bought I'd be down pretty big. I didn't even buy high peak, I bought mid peak but the crash was so fast and huge that by the time I got most of my cards they had lost significant value. It sucked because I had originally wanted to complete a few sets and have other cards I bought cover the cost of those, which is why I went in kind of hard but once the dip started, I had to sell off the cards that I could that were still making profit (Selling the Griffey Saladeen and Griffey Beck hurt because I realllly wanted to make that set but because I bought both in the secondary market I had to sell them off while they were still profitable). Despite the huge mistake, I still love the set, still collect and think it's an amazing set!

[ThoseBackPages]

THIS SET RoCKS!

[mwheeler27]

This set is only going to get better.

And like a fine wine...

[Mattsurewood]

Trout collectors---JK5 Trout companion card coming out today...features the "Death Star" from Star Wars top right...

[ThoseBackPages]

how great is that?

[Kobe101]

That is a very cool card!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by JRX

I'm not saying there isn't interest, I'm just trying to parse the data to figure out how many people are really buying not viewing. Take Baller for instance, based on his printruns one could assume he's the most popular artist. The Ichiro is holding around 1k, though it also has some benefit from being card 1, but Thomas hasn't held its price and hasn't relative to Ichiro. There's 2.13x Thomas Baller cards but the Ichiro price is 6-7x Thomas.

Now Thomas could be less popular in general since his Rochester (another relatively unpopular artist) card has also dropped a lot. His Naturel (again doesn't seem to have a big following) had a relatively low print run by recent standards. i guess my point is there can't be 3k Baller collectors because there's only 2800 Baller Thomas and probably fewer considering what Baller himself bought. Its not trading at MSRP, but its also not showing signs of huge demand.

There's lots of different ways to collect this, but I'm just trying to understand pricing for some of these.

There were fewer people buying the first week’s cards than each successive week. So, there will be fewer people to sell those cards into the market. Later cards are being held by more people willing to flip, so those cards have hit the market in bigger quantities than earlier cards even though quantities are similar. Take the 1st 3 Clemente’s with similar print runs, but fewer of the first card are hitting the market and it has remained higher than the other two while the third has dropped the most due to more being sold.

[Silas Barnaby]

Only 16 Thiele Father's Day cards left!

The Kiss the Ring wood piece is sold out.

[psochaps]

Originally Posted by rcearley

I received an order complete update on Ermsy Ichiro and Ermsy Gooden signed cards!!

Same here! Finally....

[cavsfan70]

ok I was done with the companion cards... but.... that JK5 is fire.

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by cavsfan70

ok I was done with the companion cards... but.... that JK5 is fire.

Yes..."Angels Of Our Better Nature" it's called, to go with the Angel Trout...pretty cool

[cp312]

Originally Posted by cavsfan70

ok I was done with the companion cards... but.... that JK5 is fire.

Lol this is me

[sandlotsportcards]

The companion cards are going to kill me. I’m doing Thiele and JK5 sets so I feel the need to have the companion cards too. I have the first 2 Saladeen Money Bears coming but not sure I’ll keep going since it’s supposedly 20 cards. That sure would be an awesome set though.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by rats60

There were fewer people buying the first week’s cards than each successive week. So, there will be fewer people to sell those cards into the market. Later cards are being held by more people willing to flip, so those cards have hit the market in bigger quantities than earlier cards even though quantities are similar. Take the 1st 3 Clemente’s with similar print runs, but fewer of the first card are hitting the market and it has remained higher than the other two while the third has dropped the most due to more being sold.

Technically that's not true. Cards 11-20 have a lower combined print run than 1-10. Gooden is another example. There's less than 50 more Gooden Vides than Gooden Beck, but the later is over 2x as much. That might indicate there's a much bigger Beck following than Vides which wouldn't surprise me, but it also implies there aren't that many Gooden collectors. Back during the bubble a lot of the conversation was driven by what would be a low PR etc, but it appears that the PR is not the sole defining determinant of price. It really seems to be moving towards more the artist + print run + whichever cards are visually appealing to most people.

[KSetaro]

Thiele was on facebook the other day and people were telling him that 20 companion cards is too many. He said he was going to look at the numbers again and maybe settle on 7-10 companion cards. I hope others do the same.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by JRX

Technically that's not true. Cards 11-20 have a lower combined print run than 1-10. Gooden is another example. There's less than 50 more Gooden Vides than Gooden Beck, but the later is over 2x as much. That might indicate there's a much bigger Beck following than Vides which wouldn't surprise me, but it also implies there aren't that many Gooden collectors. Back during the bubble a lot of the conversation was driven by what would be a low PR etc, but it appears that the PR is not the sole defining determinant of price. It really seems to be moving towards more the artist + print run + whichever cards are visually appealing to most people.

Why would people who bought the first week quit buying in larger quantities than started buying? There have been more people buying each week until Shore Griffey drove the non collectors away.

[Peteybass]

Originally Posted by rats60

Why would people who bought the first week quit buying in larger quantities than started buying? There have been more people buying each week until Shore Griffey drove the non collectors away.

When you look at the numbers its true. The First Trout (Ermsy) jumped the print run up.

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by JRX

Back during the bubble a lot of the conversation was driven by what would be a low PR etc, but it appears that the PR is not the sole defining determinant of price. It really seems to be moving towards more the artist + print run + whichever cards are visually appealing to most people.

I think this is as it should be. Some cards have a low print run for a reason.

[ThoseBackPages]

whoa! baller gooden and Rochester Trouts have been delivered to some folks!

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by UGLI baby

Early Keith Shore 100%. Bummed we won’t get a Trout Shore in the same mold as Shore Mattingly/McGwire/Gibson

I agree with this. The Shore McGwire and Mattingly are going to be iconic cards of P2020, and the later "safer" cards while easier to like upon first inspection just don't have the playfulness and visceral reaction of Shore's first couple cards. Unfortunately I don't own either the McGwire or the Mattingly yet. Some day.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by redauto5

I agree with this. The Shore McGwire and Mattingly are going to be iconic cards of P2020, and the later "safer" cards while easier to like upon first inspection just don't have the playfulness and visceral reaction of Shore's first couple cards. Unfortunately I don't own either the McGwire or the Mattingly yet. Some day.

i do not agree

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by Bronxbomma

Hmm. I’m in the same boat. I racked up about -$1000 in negative equity in P2020. So I flipped a red refractor to stay at par. I did the flip not to make money but to just keep my balance sheet in check. The P2020 stain looked ugly and was a reflection of my poor purchasing decision on the 2° market. Here’s what I purchased on the 2° for premiums:

Beck Ripken - $450
Ermsy Trout - $1125
Taylor Ripken -285

I know it’s not that bad, but for the sake of transparency, I decided to disclose. Any one else pull the trigger too soon? Care to share?

Disclaimer: I still think there is inherent value in this set moving ahead once we weed out the novice collectors, bot trotters, and opportunistic flippers. Good luck!!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

My early ouches:

Thiele Jeter - $100
Rochester Trout - $75
Chang Mays - $100
Baller Trout - $150
Rochester Trout - $65
Fucci Trout - $150
Taylor Jeter - $170
Jamieson McGwire - $125
Siff Mattingly - $150
Rochester Griffey - $70
Chang Robinson - $150
Taylor Griffey - $100

These are just the earliest (all the pre June) purchase offenders. I've been buying all the way down so there are a lot of other purchases in early June that are under water. I have purchased quite a few cards in the last 10 days that I'd say are in the green right now but I'm definitely waaaay in the red still!