Michael Jordan RC, PSA 10, shatters 100k !!!

[wharfrat7624]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Heritage Auction #57 closed at $480K w/BP. The two at Goldin, both also at $400K before BP, are in some kind of extended bidding (because the site crashed again in clutch time I assume?).

https://sports.ha.com/itm/basketball...umbnail-071515

No. Ken moved the end of the auction to Saturday night.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Snakeonia]

Originally Posted by blinkme323

That 52T Mantle rookie should be plummeting any day now then, right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Campfire starting material by next month for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EJKaufman]

Last two PSA 10 sales this week are $480k at Heritage and $456,455 on eBay with PWCC for one that just ended tonight. Huge drop from the Goldin sales of over $700k recently. Where do you think the PSA 10 will bottom out?

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by EJKaufman

Last two PSA 10 sales this week are $480k at Heritage and $456,455 on eBay with PWCC for one that just ended tonight. Huge drop from the Goldin sales of over $700k recently. Where do you think the PSA 10 will bottom out?

Probably $200K. As for the eBay/PWCC 10, it's slightly off-center and a close high-res inspection confirms fuzzy lettering on the jersey.

[dumars2001]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Probably $200K. As for the eBay/PWCC 10, it's slightly off-center and a close high-res inspection confirms fuzzy lettering on the jersey.

I have to agree with you and say probably around $200,000 to $250,000. I actually think the rest of thr grades have reached their bottom already.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by EJKaufman

Last two PSA 10 sales this week are $480k at Heritage and $456,455 on eBay with PWCC for one that just ended tonight. Huge drop from the Goldin sales of over $700k recently. Where do you think the PSA 10 will bottom out?

Probably bottom out in the $300-350k range. People that “paid” $738k are probably not too worried about what they paid for the card. People that paid $75-90k for a PSA 9 or $25-30k for an 8 are probably sick seeing prices down 50%+ in less than 6-7 weeks.

[mkebucks2001]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Probably bottom out in the $300-350k range. People that “paid” $738k are probably not too worried about what they paid for the card. People that paid $75-90k for a PSA 9 or $25-30k for an 8 are probably sick seeing prices down 50%+ in less than 6-7 weeks.

I paid $11k for a PSA 7 which is significantly higher than current prices. Bad timing but if I’m planning to hold long term (I am) not too much to worry about. Planning to buy another one since they’re “on sale” now.

Of course, everyone’s situation is different. If you were trying to flip Jordan rookies, maybe you are feeling it.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by mkebucks2001

I paid $11k for a PSA 7 which is significantly higher than current prices. Bad timing but if I’m planning to hold long term (I am) not too much to worry about. Planning to buy another one since they’re “on sale” now.

Of course, everyone’s situation is different. If you were trying to flip Jordan rookies, maybe you are feeling it.

I think they will see some downward movement for a few more months until the National where you will see people listing them for absurd prices. Will wait to find a few more centered examples in 8/9 grade to pick more up. Can’t imagine how many returns are taking place on eBay with their policy which favors the buyer. Anyone that sold at $25-27k is probably expecting them back which is a bad way to do business.

Hopefully people learned from this and don’t fall for the hype and pump and dump people who push stuff on social media and message boards in the future. Same thing is happening with Lebron and Kobe cards now - Youtubers were hyping them up to move inventory after they had moved on to Duncan and their next mark, and people are watching prices drop big time. Bottom line is spend what you are comfortable spending on players you like and cards you enjoy.

[rj.cataldo]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

I think they will see some downward movement for a few more months until the National where you will see people listing them for absurd prices. Will wait to find a few more centered examples in 8/9 grade to pick more up. Can’t imagine how many returns are taking place on eBay with their policy which favors the buyer. Anyone that sold at $25-27k is probably expecting them back which is a bad way to do business.

Hopefully people learned from this and don’t fall for the hype and pump and dump people who push stuff on social media and message boards in the future. Same thing is happening with Lebron and Kobe cards now - Youtubers were hyping them up to move inventory after they had moved on to Duncan and their next mark, and people are watching prices drop big time. Bottom line is spend what you are comfortable spending on players you like and cards you enjoy.

Agree with this. The #57 is a good vehicle to capture new money looking to make a splash in a “hot market” that they keep reading about because, (1) it’s Michael Jordan and (2) it’s a card even the uninformed might be familiar with. There isn’t a lot of “education” that has to go into learning why it’s a good card (e.g., some mojo Prizm Zion) because it stands on its own.

Unfortunately, this is a cycle that has repeated itself too many times. The good news is - if you bought a #57 many years ago, the card is much higher than it was before the hype started. The floor will be raised and we will probably go through this cycle yet again in a few years (if not sooner).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KhalDrogo]

Bear trap. Why? Because everything past 80s base is on the rise. Demand for MJ hasn't changed. I expect to see a slow down in supply of PSA 10s very soon.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by dumars2001

I have to agree with you and say probably around $200,000 to $250,000. I actually think the rest of thr grades have reached their bottom already.

Nah I'd say they have a ways to go still. Something like the following price structure:

9 - $25K
8 - $7500
7 - $5000

but I won't claim to be smarter than the market

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Nah I'd say they have a ways to go still. Something like the following price structure:

9 - $25K
8 - $7500
7 - $5000

but I won't claim to be smarter than the market

I would say you are dead on with where these prices will go.

[GatorPie]

I think they’ll keep dropping. PSA 8’s will hit 5K.

[notfast]

Bet Goldin’s auction gets pushed til tomorrow.

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Nah I'd say they have a ways to go still. Something like the following price structure:

9 - $25K
8 - $7500
7 - $5000

but I won't claim to be smarter than the market

While I'm not predicting where short term prices go, if the PSA 9 falls to $25k that will make it without a doubt the best investment in the industry. At some point PSA 10 Fleers will be exclusively owned by fractional ownership, hedge funds, and HNW investors. That means the 9 becomes the card for the average collector / investor. Its almost there already with 10's trading at $300k+ and PSA 9's now lagging at 12% of the PSA 10 value.

In all of this, it comes down to research. If all of Lebron and Kobe RC PSA 9's are 20-30% of their PSA 10... then Jordan's below that benchmark on a % basis are a deal.

I track this religiously and right now, my math shows that after all LeBron and Kobe's corrected these past few weeks, 9's remained at 25% of a 10's value. Jordan 9's are much below this. This is value.

[dumars2001]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Nah I'd say they have a ways to go still. Something like the following price structure:

9 - $25K
8 - $7500
7 - $5000

but I won't claim to be smarter than the market

Yeah, I can see them settling back to the prices you wrote. isn't that basically back to about where they were before the spike or are they slightly higher now, if they settle back at those prices?

[peanuts]

Originally Posted by sportsyard

While I'm not predicting where short term prices go, if the PSA 9 falls to $25k that will make it without a doubt the best investment in the industry. At some point PSA 10 Fleers will be exclusively owned by fractional ownership, hedge funds, and HNW investors. That means the 9 becomes the card for the average collector / investor. Its almost there already with 10's trading at $300k+ and PSA 9's now lagging at 12% of the PSA 10 value.

In all of this, it comes down to research. If all of Lebron and Kobe RC PSA 9's are 20-30% of their PSA 10... then Jordan's below that benchmark on a % basis are a deal.

I track this religiously and right now, my math shows that after all LeBron and Kobe's corrected these past few weeks, 9's remained at 25% of a 10's value. Jordan 9's are much below this. This is value.

Does your model account for how the different 9:10 ratios impact pricing?

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by peanuts

Does your model account for how the different 9:10 ratios impact pricing?

I assume you mean that because there are such low pop counts for the PSA 10 Jordan's it means the ratio is a lower % for the 9's?

Absolutely, and my theory holds true, some of the lowest pop Lebron's have 9's in the 20-30% of PSA 10 value.

The only card that fits the bill of a ratio being smaller because of a low pop count on a 10 is the Kobe E-X2000. Tones of the lower pop Kobes and Lebron's otherwise are in the 20-30% PSA 9 to 10 range. Even the Flair Row 0 Kobe (arguably his nicest RC) the 9 trades at 27.7% of the 10.

Bird / Magic RC IMO fits the theory that the ratio is smaller because of an extremely small PSA 10 pop count.

[tedwilliamsfan]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

I think they’ll keep dropping. PSA 8’s will hit 5K.

If PSA 8's drop to $5000 I will be making some major moves to pick up like 6 more copies. I do not think PSA 8's will fall off that far, but what do I know. Just my opinion.

[Smarti5051]

I am ready for the first PSA 8 that hits $7500. Where do I call dibs?

[shootit]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Nah I'd say they have a ways to go still. Something like the following price structure:

9 - $25K
8 - $7500
7 - $5000

but I won't claim to be smarter than the market

not sure an 8 gets that low, but thats a buy at that price, 9-10k seems to be a good number for it

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

I am ready for the first PSA 8 that hits $7500. Where do I call dibs?

If 8's hit $7500 Im literally going to buy 15 of them.

[agsstructures]

Originally Posted by sportsyard

If 8's hit $7500 Im literally going to buy 15 of them.

Same here!

[dumars2001]

That would be an incredible fall for the PSA 8's, if they did come down to $7500!

[FT35]

Originally Posted by sportsyard

While I'm not predicting where short term prices go, if the PSA 9 falls to $25k that will make it without a doubt the best investment in the industry. At some point PSA 10 Fleers will be exclusively owned by fractional ownership, hedge funds, and HNW investors. That means the 9 becomes the card for the average collector / investor. Its almost there already with 10's trading at $300k+ and PSA 9's now lagging at 12% of the PSA 10 value.

In all of this, it comes down to research. If all of Lebron and Kobe RC PSA 9's are 20-30% of their PSA 10... then Jordan's below that benchmark on a % basis are a deal.

I track this religiously and right now, my math shows that after all LeBron and Kobe's corrected these past few weeks, 9's remained at 25% of a 10's value. Jordan 9's are much below this. This is value.

Agree. The perfect storm created the run up of these and the result was a market flood like we’ve never seen. In other words, this would be a perfect storm in BUYING terms.

Psychologically, people saw the run up, and played that game in their heads that we all do sometimes...”what would I do with the $?” They mulled it over, decided to sell, then the prices came down. That dream is still in their heads! And they are panic selling MICHAEL JORDAN just to salvage a used Camry because they came up short on their Ferrari dream. It’s a rare time indeed, but the pendulum doesn’t stay on this end long.

To those who are selling...stay firm in the “good reasons to sell” practice. For years, you held these with the “only if I need money” mindset. Don’t be fooled into thinking “missed out on my early retirement,” is the same as “need money.” Sell on the cheap if you want or need to, but not if you’re just annoyed.

To the buyers...if sellers continue to panic sell—even if they are just trying to salvage some $ on their JORDANS, go get em! Capitalize on others’ need to maintain pride.