Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[ironfireman]

Yeah I have a different definition of poor I guess. Most anyone who buys cards isn't what i would call poor. I grew up poor. Homeless & hungry at times. These days I am a fat happy old man. I have a great life, nice house, do pretty much whatever I want. I'm not rich but money isn't a problem. I've noticed most rich people that come from money have serious problems. Of course I've known some people that were poor and made millions and they were crazy too lol. I think if money matters too much either way it can become problematic.
I don't really care if someone is poor or rich especially at card shows. Hell, if someone can pay the $5 and spend half the day looking at cards I figure they are doing ok lol.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Yeah I have a different definition of poor I guess. Most anyone who buys cards isn't what i would call poor. I grew up poor. Homeless & hungry at times. These days I am a fat happy old man. I have a great life, nice house, do pretty much whatever I want. I'm not rich but money isn't a problem. I've noticed most rich people that come from money have serious problems. Of course I've known some people that were poor and made millions and they were crazy too lol. I think if money matters too much either way it can become problematic.
I don't really care if someone is poor or rich especially at card shows. Hell, if someone can pay the $5 and spend half the day looking at cards I figure they are doing ok lol.

Except when they’re buying cards to sell them perhaps?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Stifle

The greatest era within the hobby was in the mid 90’s when competition pushed card companies to create parallels, inserts, auto’s, game used, rare parallels, different card stock.

Having more dealers means having more dealers with unique selling strategies. Some members enjoy having every table be a template of their liking. I’m glad they are not. Some of my best finds are the dealers that nobody searches because they set up differently. It may be more time consuming but the finds are tremendous.

Except the cost of innovation drove all but one manufacturer bankrupt or out of cards.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Except the cost of innovation drove all but one manufacturer bankrupt or out of cards.

Well… the market also contracted in size by like 80%… just not enough economics to go around, perhaps

If we had the same today, they’d probably be able to afford it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[solt0131]

This might be the best video that Geoff Wilson has ever done:

https://youtu.be/aakscqkYF_A?si=e9UyQl9iBQg0-Tp2

Very informative and well spoken

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by bjw

I am also in Maine and there is only the most garbage junk wax where I am it. Any singles are absurdly overpriced at antique stores. At least in my area.

I've bought some "Reed buys" from Dave and Adams over the years. If anyone has a finger on the market pulse he would. Just out of curiousity, does he contribute to any forums? Also was wondering who the "big 3" are, DA Card World, BBCE and...? Sorry, I'm new here.

But I do agree with Reed. Personally I think the 1993-2001 era will see the biggest market value added in the next ten years in unopened. It was a perfect storm of exciting player pool, quality product and scarcity of production run, especially in the first few post strike years. Add to that the millennials who collected it are just reaching their prime earning years.

Last year I sold part of my unopened collection to Reed. He spent about 8 hours at my house and we had an amazing conversation about the hobby and unopened wax.

I was surprised to hear that some late 90's mid 2000 wax was very tough to find, specifically basketball, but also football/baseball.

You might have bought some of my "reed buys"


Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[jmarascojr]

Went to a "show" in Batavia (think Buffalo's armpit) NY this weekend.

I walked the show 2-3 times in 30 minutes while I waited for one of their signers to show up (Ray Bourque).
It cost $10 to get in, which I would've considered a rip off had you not received $10 in free play at the attached casino.

Everything was overpriced as expected... Asked about 1 card the entire time I was there and the guy was $400 over eBay, card goes for around 1500-1600, he wanted $2k.

[bankdawg]

Originally Posted by jmarascojr

Went to a "show" in Batavia (think Buffalo's armpit) NY this weekend.

I walked the show 2-3 times in 30 minutes while I waited for one of their signers to show up (Ray Bourque).
It cost $10 to get in, which I would've considered a rip off had you not received $10 in free play at the attached casino.

Everything was overpriced as expected... Asked about 1 card the entire time I was there and the guy was $400 over eBay, card goes for around 1500-1600, he wanted $2k.

did you hit on the 10 dolla free play????

[theredmenace]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Last year I sold part of my unopened collection to Reed. He spent about 8 hours at my house and we had an amazing conversation about the hobby and unopened wax.

I was surprised to hear that some late 90's mid 2000 wax was very tough to find, specifically basketball, but also football/baseball.

You might have bought some of my "reed buys"


Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

If you don't mind me asking, what was some of the baseball wax he bought off you?

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

If you don't mind me asking, what was some of the baseball wax he bought off you?

Mostly retail, but I did sell duplicate hobby boxes of chrome, flagship and what I felt I could part with.


I posted photo's of what I sold in the unopened wax investment thread. Not sure what page it's on.


In retrospect, I do miss a few of the boxes I sold,(especially some BSKB boxes) but it also let me consolidate some things, buy a few boxes I wanted and pay off my house.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Mostly retail, but I did sell duplicate hobby boxes of chrome, flagship and what I felt I could part with.


I posted photo's of what I sold in the unopened wax investment thread. Not sure what page it's on.


In retrospect, I do miss a few of the boxes I sold,(especially some BSKB boxes) but it also let me consolidate some things, buy a few boxes I wanted and pay off my house.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=3114

[theredmenace]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Mostly retail, but I did sell duplicate hobby boxes of chrome, flagship and what I felt I could part with.


I posted photo's of what I sold in the unopened wax investment thread. Not sure what page it's on.


In retrospect, I do miss a few of the boxes I sold,(especially some BSKB boxes) but it also let me consolidate some things, buy a few boxes I wanted and pay off my house.

Thanks and congrats on paying off the house!

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Boo

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...postcount=3114

Thank you Boo!!!


Of all those boxes I sold, I regret selling the 2005-06 topps pristine BSKB boxes the most.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

Thanks and congrats on paying off the house!

Thank you!

2023 has been good to me and I've been buying unopened again. I'm a big fan of 2004-05 Baseball and have been buying more unopened from those years.

[CdnOsFan]

Was in Erie, PA this weekend and attended a 60 table show on Sunday. Everything seemed way overpriced. I will pay a bit more in person to take it home now but not double.

Did not see a lot of money changing hands and I was there about 10am - 11am. Sure did not see anything real exciting. I also hate waiting several minutes for a dealer to find the price on eBay on their phone, so annoying.

I bought NOTHING as the high prices did not provide a good starting point to negotiate. 25 cent and dollar boxes were picked over. $750 for a 2023 Bowman Non-Auto Chrome Gunnar Henderson #50/50 Insert parallel PSA10 is absurd in my opinion. $20 for a Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Card Jackson Holliday with a huge dent on the front?

Little bit of vintage was mostly low grade with high prices.

I guess it was Erie, PA so my expectations should be low. The Wal-mart on Peach Street had almost all their inventory at the show I think.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by CdnOsFan

Was in Erie, PA this weekend and attended a 60 table show on Sunday. Everything seemed way overpriced. I will pay a bit more in person to take it home now but not double.

Did not see a lot of money changing hands and I was there about 10am - 11am. Sure did not see anything real exciting. I also hate waiting several minutes for a dealer to find the price on eBay on their phone, so annoying.

I bought NOTHING as the high prices did not provide a good starting point to negotiate. 25 cent and dollar boxes were picked over. $750 for a 2023 Bowman Non-Auto Chrome Gunnar Henderson #50/50 Insert parallel PSA10 is absurd in my opinion. $20 for a Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Card Jackson Holliday with a huge dent on the front?

Little bit of vintage was mostly low grade with high prices.

I guess it was Erie, PA so my expectations should be low. The Wal-mart on Peach Street had almost all their inventory at the show I think.

I'm a patient guy, but this is pretty annoying.


Prices should not be fluctuating much right now except in football and only with a limited number of players in baseball so dealers should have a reasonable idea what cards are going for.

[theshowandme]

Being a mid-Atlantic, somewhat northeast guy (Washington, D.C. area), I only plan on going to one more big show this year (Philadelphia)

It has been one wild year for shows.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Being a mid-Atlantic, somewhat northeast guy (Washington, D.C. area), I only plan on going to one more big show this year (Philadelphia)

It has been one wild year for shows.

Same with me. Hopefully I can liquidate the rest of what I have there.

[hammerva]

Originally Posted by solt0131

This might be the best video that Geoff Wilson has ever done:

https://youtu.be/aakscqkYF_A?si=e9UyQl9iBQg0-Tp2

Very informative and well spoken

I am not sure if is admirable or not that he is telling us about doom and gloom on one side and yet at the same time is trying to get his his east coast version of Burbank Cards on the road. It is kind of like someone during the end of the dot.com talking about the end of the road while at the same time trying to build some version of pets.com

Again the market isn't crashing. All you have to do is go to shows to see that. It is just that the days of selling Kobe beef at any price are gone when a perfectly good steak is out there at half price.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by hammerva

I am not sure if is admirable or not that he is telling us about doom and gloom on one side and yet at the same time is trying to get his his east coast version of Burbank Cards on the road. It is kind of like someone during the end of the dot.com talking about the end of the road while at the same time trying to build some version of pets.com

Again the market isn't crashing. All you have to do is go to shows to see that. It is just that the days of selling Kobe beef at any price are gone when a perfectly good steak is out there at half price.

Did you watch the video? The whole point was that the market is NOT crashing, but is going through normal cycles.

[FT35]

As far as prices are concerned, I’m not sure if sports cards are dead or if people are just willing to accept less and less for their cards because they don’t see them increasing in value in the near future.

It’s tough to sell an appreciating asset—it’s easy to dump something that isn’t—and very easy to dump something that is perceived to be falling in value. Comps play a huge roll in market directions (both ways).

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by hammerva

I am not sure if is admirable or not that he is telling us about doom and gloom on one side and yet at the same time is trying to get his his east coast version of Burbank Cards on the road. It is kind of like someone during the end of the dot.com talking about the end of the road while at the same time trying to build some version of pets.com

Again the market isn't crashing. All you have to do is go to shows to see that. It is just that the days of selling Kobe beef at any price are gone when a perfectly good steak is out there at half price.

It’s a bad sign when one of the most productive offensive players in single season history (acuna) experiences stagnant card price movement.

Businesses, companies and society demands go through cycles. The vast majority of cards have a finite shelf life as active player career are limited to twenty years and retired players don’t produce positive revenue on an annual basis. Sports cards are collectibles, not growing businesses.

We may never see an upwards cycle to match the pandemic pump ever again - it is lost dead money forever in most instances.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by FT35

As far as prices are concerned, I’m not sure if sports cards are dead or if people are just willing to accept less and less for their cards because they don’t see them increasing in value in the near future.

It’s tough to sell an appreciating asset—it’s easy to dump something that isn’t—and very easy to dump something that is perceived to be falling in value. Comps play a huge roll in market directions (both ways).

On prices, there is an option outside of the two you listed. People just need the cash. We know that the hobby has exploded in popularity in the past 3 years. Some re-entrants, some opportunists.

The opportunists are the first ones to leave. Cash out for whatever, and then onto the next thing. For hobby re-entrants, the story may be a little different. Prices have gone up dramatically in a short period of time. Yes, they have also come back down, but most things (especially wax) is above where it was in early 2020. This can be demoralizing, and these re-entrants are quickly priced out.

Both of these groups are subject to just needing cash, and now. There are a lot of economic factors I won't go into detail on here. Maybe credit cards have reached their limit, student loan payments have restarted, general cost of living is through the roof.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s a bad sign when one of the most productive offensive players in single season history (acuna) experiences stagnant card price movement.

Businesses, companies and society demands go through cycles. The vast majority of cards have a finite shelf life as active player career are limited to twenty years and retired players don’t produce positive revenue on an annual basis. Sports cards are collectibles, not growing businesses.

We may never see an upwards cycle to match the pandemic pump ever again - it is lost dead money forever in most instances.

And let's be clear, stagnant in this economy is a loss. NEW cards are not an investment. Sure, savy guys can make a few bucks with smart seasonal flipping but the easy $$$ is gone and the losses outweigh the gains. It's a collectors market.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s a bad sign when one of the most productive offensive players in single season history (acuna) experiences stagnant card price movement.

Businesses, companies and society demands go through cycles. The vast majority of cards have a finite shelf life as active player career are limited to twenty years and retired players don’t produce positive revenue on an annual basis. Sports cards are collectibles, not growing businesses.

We may never see an upwards cycle to match the pandemic pump ever again - it is lost dead money forever in most instances.

Acuna prices weren’t stagnant. They were the salmon of the card world fighting against the current to maintain value in a declining market.

And yeah, the Pandemic Pump is over. 98% of cards will never see those values again. It’s fine. Things will still move along just like they always have.