The burlap is back! First Buzz: 2017 Topps Heritage baseball cards (will update) - Page 128

TarjetasBéisbol · 03-13-2017, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

On the rarity on some items...
It doesn't take much to do some math to see what print runs of things are.
I have said for years on these Heritage threads, as have others who did the math, that the color backs were limited to 10, and flip stock (and previously Black & White) were limited to 5, and guess what, the sell sheet now says this very thing.

The throwbacks are now really the only ones that are not stated, but are calculated the same way with same odds/production numbers. Anyone who knows Heritage or watches the Throwbacks can see how rare they are and that still some from Heritage High last year only 1-2 copies of a card have even popped up which is crazy given the amounts busted on this board alone. I was told the 25 of each Throwback number 3 years back and those numbers based on production/odds make sense, although they did seem tougher last year, like I said, some thinking was 10-15 copies by most folks opening or building the set.
Either way they are the hardest of all SSP. I hope to hit more than 1 this year, as I continue to miss the odds hitting just 1 each of the past 4 releases (2015 TH, 2015 THHN, 2016 TH, 2016 THHN)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

So now Heritage has been out for a while any body have a guess on SSP print runs?

Some are known but how about the others, lets go based off 3125 hobby cases w/24 packs =84000 packs and ( about 15,000 retail stores worldwide) retail hanger boxes ? Blasters? Hanger packs? Single packs? (My guess for the math lets say retail there are 291,000 packs). If there are a total of 375,000 packs total

Throwback at 375000 packs/5000 odds/15 subjects = 5 copies
Error at 375000 packs/1057 odds/5 subjects = 70 copies
Traded at 375000 packs/1057 odds/7 subjects = 50 copies

This is only speculation and would appreciate any more info or math corrections necessary.

Brent already mentioned this in one of his posts and I do not think that there are only 5 copies of each throwback. There have been a total of 5 Harper's pulled between what is seen here and what is seen on eBay so that makes me doubt it even more.

Orange October · 03-13-2017, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TarjetasBéisbol

Brent already mentioned this in one of his posts and I do not think that there are only 5 copies of each throwback. There have been a total of 5 Harper's pulled between what is seen here and what is seen on eBay so that makes me doubt it even more.

Yeah, 3 Machados have already sold and 2 are on ebay right now. I'm thinking there is more than 5 per player too.

ridgerider · 03-13-2017, 02:18 PM

I've read this whole thread and must of missed that post. So if we go off 10-15 throwbacks my numbers above are doubled or tripled making there either 150-200 errors and 100-150 traded. Does this seem right?

kyle1707 · 03-13-2017, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TarjetasBéisbol

Brent already mentioned this in one of his posts and I do not think that there are only 5 copies of each throwback. There have been a total of 5 Harper's pulled between what is seen here and what is seen on eBay so that makes me doubt it even more.

There has been 7 bryce harper throwbacks on ebay.

I thought it was 15-20 in the past?

Have to include retail

pnft17 · 03-13-2017, 03:06 PM

I'd put throwbacks at 10-15

ridgerider · 03-13-2017, 03:19 PM

Thanks for the info was mainly interested in the errors production numbers. I have been watching ebay and only see a couple mint cards for every 20 error cards listed. The mint versions are going for double what non mint are and am just curious whether or not to wait or just bite the bullet and pay-up.

kyle1707 · 03-13-2017, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

Thanks for the info was mainly interested in the errors production numbers. I have been watching ebay and only see a couple mint cards for every 20 error cards listed. The mint versions are going for double what non mint are and am just curious whether or not to wait or just bite the bullet and pay-up.

The excitement for this product has really over shadowed the massive centering problem ...

Huge amount of entire run was 70-30 60-40 at best...

Amazing they F'ed this up so bad....

PSA 10 should really see an added value this year....

In about 90 days we will see that

ThoseBackPages · 03-13-2017, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

The excitement for this product has really over shadowed the massive centering problem ...

Huge amount of entire run was 70-30 60-40 at best...

Amazing they F'ed this up so bad....

PSA 10 should really see an added value this year....

In about 90 days we will see that

Ringing true to the original 1968 release. Centering is HORRID on those

auctionjmm · 03-13-2017, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

So now Heritage has been out for a while any body have a guess on SSP print runs?

Some are known but how about the others, lets go based off 3125 hobby cases w/24 packs =84000 packs and ( about 15,000 retail stores worldwide) retail hanger boxes ? Blasters? Hanger packs? Single packs? (My guess for the math lets say retail there are 291,000 packs). If there are a total of 375,000 packs total

Throwback at 375000 packs/5000 odds/15 subjects = 5 copies
Error at 375000 packs/1057 odds/5 subjects = 70 copies
Traded at 375000 packs/1057 odds/7 subjects = 50 copies

This is only speculation and would appreciate any more info or math corrections necessary.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

Thanks for the info was mainly interested in the errors production numbers. I have been watching ebay and only see a couple mint cards for every 20 error cards listed. The mint versions are going for double what non mint are and am just curious whether or not to wait or just bite the bullet and pay-up.

Your pack number is way off. 3125 cases * 288 packs per case = 900,000 and that is just hobby. Then you have to factor in retail.

pnft17 · 03-13-2017, 04:20 PM

I guess I haven't seen many centering issues. Of all ones I've gotten in and bid on are pretty dead on. I've seen a few bad ones but few and far between...
Should be plenty of PSA 10's to be had. If you ever seen chart in PSA board the 60-40 guideline is pretty big. People think oh it's off center and it's still at worst 55-45. Easy 10!!!

Morgoth · 03-13-2017, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

The excitement for this product has really over shadowed the massive centering problem ...

Huge amount of entire run was 70-30 60-40 at best...

Amazing they F'ed this up so bad....

PSA 10 should really see an added value this year....

In about 90 days we will see that

60/40 isn't really off center.

ridgerider · 03-13-2017, 05:17 PM

Ok!!! Thanks for the correction Jim, so based on 900,000 packs hobby, if blue border are hobby only and there are #/50 at 37:1 odds (comes to 925,000 packs)

So if there is double the production for packs in retail (1,800,000 packs) and 900,000 hobby packs which comes to 2,700,000 packs total and sums up to 35/ throwback, 500/ error and 350/ traded variants.

DrDamo · 03-13-2017, 05:38 PM

Sorry if this has been discussed, but does anyone the odds on hot boxes? 1 per case?

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TNP777 · 03-13-2017, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrDamo

Sorry if this has been discussed, but does anyone the odds on hot boxes? 1 per case?

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

If by "hot box" you mean the box that has a purple refractor in every pack, then yes, one per case.

DrDamo · 03-13-2017, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNP777

If by "hot box" you mean the box that has a purple refractor in every pack, then yes, one per case.

By "hot box," I actually meant "HOT BOX." Topps puts it in all caps.

Also, thanks.

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Monsters · 03-13-2017, 05:52 PM

Is there a big preference of PSA over BGS for heritage grading or are they the same in the aftermarket?

Skipscards · 03-13-2017, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monsters

Is there a big preference of PSA over BGS for heritage grading or are they the same in the aftermarket?

Same same.

Though some do prefer PSA because of the older look of the Heritage brand. But getting a Pristine BGS still gets a premium.

Coug46n2 · 03-13-2017, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

The excitement for this product has really over shadowed the massive centering problem ...

Huge amount of entire run was 70-30 60-40 at best...

Amazing they F'ed this up so bad....

PSA 10 should really see an added value this year....

In about 90 days we will see that

I'm having a hard time finding a well centered Bryant Action. I bought one, didn't like it once in hand. Watching a few others and I'm having a hard time judging the centering. The burlap plays tricks on my eyes I think.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monsters

Is there a big preference of PSA over BGS for heritage grading or are they the same in the aftermarket?

This coming from someone who prefers BGS over PSA... I will say Heritage looks amazing in PSA slabs.

TarjetasBéisbol · 03-13-2017, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrDamo

By "hot box," I actually meant "HOT BOX." Topps puts it in all caps.

Also, thanks.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

Where did Topps put it in all caps? Give us some info to go on so we can help get your question answered.

There is one box in each case that has purple chrome cards in every pack, this is what is commonly known as a "hot box" when it comes to heritage.

ThoseBackPages · 03-13-2017, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monsters

Is there a big preference of PSA over BGS for heritage grading or are they the same in the aftermarket?

PSA all day!

ridgerider · 03-13-2017, 06:13 PM

I am a card appeal person and flood time is a great time to look for perfect cards cheap most of the time. I have seen well centered Bryants going for $15-20 more than 60/40 centered. Check these out, I am watching Seager error variants and have only seen 2 of which appeared to be perfect versions that went for almost twice what 60/40 centered ones are going for. There are also several 80/20 Seager errors, they are hard to look at.

Coug46n2 · 03-13-2017, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

I am a card appeal person and flood time is a great time to look for perfect cards cheap most of the time. I have seen well centered Bryants going for $15-20 more than 60/40 centered. Check these out, I am watching Seager error variants and have only seen 2 of which appeared to be perfect versions that went for almost twice what 60/40 centered ones are going for. There are also several 80/20 Seager errors, they are hard to look at.

I'm with you, I'll gladly pay more for a well centered copy. I'm really happy with the one I pulled.

ridgerider · 03-13-2017, 06:27 PM

Sweet card, I have not broke any hobby yet so I just bought one

Will post a pic when it arrives in the pick ups thread. Bad thing was is I was happy building the master+ until I pulled the red ROA Seager and red ROA Bregman so now I am doing their non chrome print runs.

brentandbecca · 03-13-2017, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

So now Heritage has been out for a while any body have a guess on SSP print runs?

Some are known but how about the others, lets go based off 3125 hobby cases w/24 packs =84000 packs and ( about 15,000 retail stores worldwide) retail hanger boxes ? Blasters? Hanger packs? Single packs? (My guess for the math lets say retail there are 291,000 packs). If there are a total of 375,000 packs total

Throwback at 375000 packs/5000 odds/15 subjects = 5 copies
Error at 375000 packs/1057 odds/5 subjects = 70 copies
Traded at 375000 packs/1057 odds/7 subjects = 50 copies

This is only speculation and would appreciate any more info or math corrections necessary.

Your numbers are way off, my friend

first, there are approx. 3200 hobby cases
but using your 3,125 cases that is 900,000 packs alone...not 84,000

in the past there has been 25 of each throwback card, last year was the first year that it appeared only 15 BUT we did not have odds for regular TH on wrappers, and high number were not hitting easy either, which led to some speculation about pack-out errors or retail friendly pack-outs

This year appears back at 25 of each, half in hobby/half in retail, which is normally the case
Doing the math off of 3125-3200 cases that is around 12 of each throwback in hobby alone

brentandbecca · 03-13-2017, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

Thanks for the info was mainly interested in the errors production numbers. I have been watching ebay and only see a couple mint cards for every 20 error cards listed. The mint versions are going for double what non mint are and am just curious whether or not to wait or just bite the bullet and pay-up.

typically around 150 copies of each of these

this year the odds suggest 250 of each
although there were definite pack-out mistakes, and I am thinking the odds on the wrappers must be incorrect
especially b/c there are 5 errors BUT 7 traded, yet both odds are identical, that does not make sense
I am thinking the odds were meant to be combined as they have been before when Traded/Errors were on same checklist/odds
so instead of approx. 1000 packs to hit one of each, I believe it's 1000 packs to hit either one, which gets us back to 150 of each, 75 in hobby/75 in retail

03-13-2017, 04:20 PM	#3185
pnft17 Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,693	I guess I haven't seen many centering issues. Of all ones I've gotten in and bid on are pretty dead on. I've seen a few bad ones but few and far between... Should be plenty of PSA 10's to be had. If you ever seen chart in PSA board the 60-40 guideline is pretty big. People think oh it's off center and it's still at worst 55-45. Easy 10!!! Last edited by pnft17; 03-13-2017 at 04:22 PM.

03-13-2017, 05:17 PM	#3187
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	Ok!!! Thanks for the correction Jim, so based on 900,000 packs hobby, if blue border are hobby only and there are #/50 at 37:1 odds (comes to 925,000 packs) So if there is double the production for packs in retail (1,800,000 packs) and 900,000 hobby packs which comes to 2,700,000 packs total and sums up to 35/ throwback, 500/ error and 350/ traded variants. Last edited by ridgerider; 03-13-2017 at 05:39 PM.

03-13-2017, 05:52 PM	#3191
Monsters Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3,179 Lokness2001	Is there a big preference of PSA over BGS for heritage grading or are they the same in the aftermarket? __________________

03-13-2017, 02:18 PM	#3178
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	I've read this whole thread and must of missed that post. So if we go off 10-15 throwbacks my numbers above are doubled or tripled making there either 150-200 errors and 100-150 traded. Does this seem right?

03-13-2017, 03:06 PM	#3180
pnft17 Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 3,693	I'd put throwbacks at 10-15

03-13-2017, 03:19 PM	#3181
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	Thanks for the info was mainly interested in the errors production numbers. I have been watching ebay and only see a couple mint cards for every 20 error cards listed. The mint versions are going for double what non mint are and am just curious whether or not to wait or just bite the bullet and pay-up.

03-13-2017, 05:38 PM	#3188
DrDamo Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 469	Sorry if this has been discussed, but does anyone the odds on hot boxes? 1 per case? Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

03-13-2017, 06:13 PM	#3196
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	I am a card appeal person and flood time is a great time to look for perfect cards cheap most of the time. I have seen well centered Bryants going for $15-20 more than 60/40 centered. Check these out, I am watching Seager error variants and have only seen 2 of which appeared to be perfect versions that went for almost twice what 60/40 centered ones are going for. There are also several 80/20 Seager errors, they are hard to look at.

03-13-2017, 06:27 PM	#3198
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	Sweet card, I have not broke any hobby yet so I just bought one Will post a pic when it arrives in the pick ups thread. Bad thing was is I was happy building the master+ until I pulled the red ROA Seager and red ROA Bregman so now I am doing their non chrome print runs.