✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[oddstuff]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I have been trying to rationalize paying more and more for Ohtani cards (its not an affordability issue) it is a value issue. I bought a lot of Ohtani cards in 2021 after his break out and his current card prices are even higher now. Obviously I believe Ohtani RC values are going to increase in value over time (especially RC autos and high end cards).

So I was wondering if I could compare Ohtani RC cards to Michael Jordan 86-87 Fleer RC cards. My Dad bought me a Jordan RC card I think in 1992 or 1993 for like $325 (during covid I graded it an it was a PSA8). It is one of the few junk wax era cards that has sky rocketed in value. Obviously if I had a time machine I would have wanted to go back and buy every Jordan RC (and Mantle for that matter).

Anyone care to guess where Ohtani cards will end up after he retires? Should everyone on here be buying as many high end Ohtani RC cards as possible?

I am just trying to justify spending more and more on Ohtani RC cards.

Someone else probably has some actual good guesstimates but imagine huge difference in print runs between 86 Fleer vs 18 Topps Series 2 if trying to compare a 86F Jordan vs. 18T #700 Ohtani. Is there a guesstimate how much 86F were printed and then finding a similar parallel for 18T Ohtani? That would be the supply side question.

[Trueblue]

Jordan also only had a handful of rookies versus Shohei has rookies and rookie insignias across 20+ sets. Production quality was also good in 2018, unlike 1986. It's complete apples to oranges and should not be compared.

The practical way to expand your collection is to sell or trade your dupes and consolidate to higher priced cards. This is much easier to do if the cards are graded. It is financially difficult and not feasible long-term to continuously buy high-end without selling lower cost basis cards.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by oddstuff

Someone else probably has some actual good guesstimates but imagine huge difference in print runs between 86 Fleer vs 18 Topps Series 2 if trying to compare a 86F Jordan vs. 18T #700 Ohtani. Is there a guesstimate how much 86F were printed and then finding a similar parallel for 18T Ohtani? That would be the supply side question.

I am not really trying to compare 86 Fleer to 2018 Series 2. More like comparing good 2018 Ohtani RC (RC autos, numbered cards, SP, and SSP's) to Jordan 86 Fleer RC in 1992.

Are people going to kick themselves in 20 years for not buying good Ohtani RC cards now even though they have greatly appreciated in price this year? Or are we near peak pricing today? That is the real question.

[imbluestreak23]

There will be a wide variance of performance in the Ohtani RC market as we go forward into the future where key cards will outperform non key cards.

It's best to consolidate into as many key, desirable cards as possible if wanting to purchase and/or upgrade.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am not really trying to compare 86 Fleer to 2018 Series 2. More like comparing good 2018 Ohtani RC (RC autos, numbered cards, SP, and SSP's) to Jordan 86 Fleer RC in 1992.



Are people going to kick themselves in 20 years for not buying good Ohtani RC cards now even though they have greatly appreciated in price this year? Or are we near peak pricing today? That is the real question.

Have you seen what high end LeBron sells for? That's the target price, imo for Shohei high end. A recent-ish player in the GOAT conversation with modern autos and parallels. You are betting on Shohei closing the gap of demand between basketball and baseball with his international impact.

So yes, there's a lot of room.

[imbluestreak23]

High end Ohtani market should still have plenty of juice.

Trout 2009s and 2011s are difficult comps given 2009/2011 RC volumes are vastly lower than 2018s, but high end card for card comps are fair game and Ohtani high end has yet to surpass peak Trout, which I still find asinine.

[seanrs1]

So besides all RC autos, numbered RC cards, and flagship, chrome, and bowman non numbered SSP cards...what are Ohtani "key" RC cards that you think will appreciate more than non-key RC cards?

[Rs17]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So besides all RC autos, numbered RC cards, and flagship, chrome, and bowman non numbered SSP cards...what are Ohtani "key" RC cards that you think will appreciate more than non-key RC cards?

I’m working on a 2018-present Rainbow Foil complete set—Series 1, 2, Update (if printed) as a fun endeavor, but I’m not really putting money into anything other than what you described above. I also really love the True Photo cards, so I’ll continue to pursue them.

[ThoseBackPages]

can never go wrong with Flag Blacks

[imbluestreak23]

very sad I did not buy the BGS 9.5 true gem S2 Black at the national in 2023. It was there at an amazingly attractive price. SMH

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

very sad I did not buy the BGS 9.5 true gem S2 Black at the national in 2023. It was there at an amazingly attractive price. SMH

huge L for sure

[ThoseBackPages]

if you want to play the "what could be huger bucks in the future?" game i would keep this in mind...

what, if anything, will the whales want to own after they own all the big 2018 stuff?

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

very sad I did not buy the BGS 9.5 true gem S2 Black at the national in 2023. It was there at an amazingly attractive price. SMH

No ragrets bro.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

if you want to play the "what could be huger bucks in the future?" game i would keep this in mind...

what, if anything, will the whales want to own after they own all the big 2018 stuff?

This is still a tough answer. For someone like MJ, it was easy to pinpoint because we knew in 97 and 98 what the desirable "cool" "rare" cards were that every kid dreamed of. But in an era of chrome everything, parallel everything, lackluster/noncreative insert sets, there are only a few parallel items that rise to the top of the list, and only a few autographs/autographed individual cards that stand out, most of which are never available to the public as they are hit on FANTOPPS break sites and sent directly to an auction house. The days of the laymen getting an autograph whale card whereby other laymen have the opportunity to bid on that whale card on eBay are dwindling.

[seanrs1]

I got an idea! Everyone should post what they think will be a "key" 2018 Ohtani RC. You can post the usual suspects or maybe even include some different SSP or SP cards. Your choice!!!

[imbluestreak23]

On a relative basis, I'm probably in the camp that after the "good" 2018 stuff is snatched up, I'd probably rather have the "mid" 2018 stuff rather than the masses of non 2018 stuff unless it's truly special, but as I said, finding truly special non 2018 stuff takes you to auction houses and I just don't enjoy that experience. Plenty of fun mid 2018 stuff to keep me happy.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

This is still a tough answer. For someone like MJ, it was easy to pinpoint because we knew in 97 and 98 what the desirable "cool" "rare" cards were that every kid dreamed of. But in an era of chrome everything, parallel everything, lackluster/noncreative insert sets, there are only a few parallel items that rise to the top of the list, and only a few autographs/autographed individual cards that stand out, most of which are never available to the public as they are hit on FANTOPPS break sites and sent directly to an auction house. The days of the laymen getting an autograph whale card whereby other laymen have the opportunity to bid on that whale card on eBay are dwindling.

totally agree

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I got an idea! Everyone should post what they think will be a "key" 2018 Ohtani RC. You can post the usual suspects or maybe even include some different SSP or SP cards. Your choice!!!

all his "RC"s are easy to buy and readily available

now if you mean Autos. SPs. SSPs, Parallels, etc then that will be interesting!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Yeah their customer service has really nosedived lately. They screwed up a recent vintage submission I had so I called before they shipped it back to me so they could fix it and they basically said there was nothing they could do, I'd have to resubmit it after I got it back.

I can only talk about this now that it's over, but I took two encased Japan Transcendent 1/1s to PSA to inquire if they could do a minimum grade of 10 and not unseal the cards if they determined it a lower grade. They told me it wasn't an issue and put in a min grade requirement. This was critical to me, as I would rather have the cards in the original transcendent case if not a 10.

Few weeks later, I get a grade pop notification and both cards were marked as not meeting minimums. I was bummed, but then I noticed that both cards images were of the card in PSA 10 slabs. I was very confused.

When picking up the card at PSA headquarters, hoping to get some answers, both cards were returned to me outside of the transcendent case. I was not happy and through talking with the associates, found out that the cards were actually graded a 10 (hence the PSA 10 images) but the grading supervisor instructed the cards to be cracked out because he did not believe they met standard. I then politely explained my minimum grade request and very deep frustration about the process. They told me a customer supervisor would speak with me.

I spoke to the supervisor and was informed that PSA always take cards out of the case to inspect and nobody should have told me it could be done without removing the card from the seal. I presented them proof and they checked the video room conversation to verify my claim. From there - over the course of two months, we settled on a modest grading credit and for the cards to be slabbed as PSA 9s with no extra charge.

Fast forward, I get a call from the supervisor that the cards were regraded as 9s but they wanted me to pay the upcharge for $1K/each. At this point, I had to take a deep breath and firmly decline. They ended up waiving it, but I was not pleased.

In closing, PSA screwed me over, but worked with me to provide an outcome I can move on from. But damn - what a freaking mess.

[ThoseBackPages]

i think non-green or vintage stock cards numbered to /100 or less is the way to go

[ThoseBackPages]

thats why i love Flag Blacks so much.... there is no need to explain to someone what they are

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I can only talk about this now that it's over, but I took two encased Japan Transcendent 1/1s to PSA to inquire if they could do a minimum grade of 10 and not unseal the cards if they determined it a lower grade. They told me it wasn't an issue and put in a min grade requirement. This was critical to me, as I would rather have the cards in the original transcendent case if not a 10.

Few weeks later, I get a grade pop notification and both cards were marked as not meeting minimums. I was bummed, but then I noticed that both cards images were of the card in PSA 10 slabs. I was very confused.

When picking up the card at PSA headquarters, hoping to get some answers, both cards were returned to me outside of the transcendent case. I was not happy and through talking with the associates, found out that the cards were actually graded a 10 (hence the PSA 10 images) but the grading supervisor instructed the cards to be cracked out because he did not believe they met standard. I then politely explained my minimum grade request and very deep frustration about the process. They told me a customer supervisor would speak with me.

I spoke to the supervisor and was informed that PSA always take cards out of the case to inspect and nobody should have told me it could be done without removing the card from the seal. I presented them proof and they checked the video room conversation to verify my claim. From there - over the course of two months, we settled on a modest grading credit and for the cards to be slabbed as PSA 9s with no extra charge.

Fast forward, I get a call from the supervisor that the cards were regraded as 9s but they wanted me to pay the upcharge for $1K/each. At this point, I had to take a deep breath and firmly decline. They ended up waiving it, but I was not pleased.

In closing, PSA screwed me over, but worked with me to provide an outcome I can move on from. But damn - what a freaking mess.

Those cards are amazing and this is an example of utter incompetence

[Rs17]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I can only talk about this now that it's over, but I took two encased Japan Transcendent 1/1s to PSA to inquire if they could do a minimum grade of 10 and not unseal the cards if they determined it a lower grade. They told me it wasn't an issue and put in a min grade requirement. This was critical to me, as I would rather have the cards in the original transcendent case if not a 10.

Few weeks later, I get a grade pop notification and both cards were marked as not meeting minimums. I was bummed, but then I noticed that both cards images were of the card in PSA 10 slabs. I was very confused.

When picking up the card at PSA headquarters, hoping to get some answers, both cards were returned to me outside of the transcendent case. I was not happy and through talking with the associates, found out that the cards were actually graded a 10 (hence the PSA 10 images) but the grading supervisor instructed the cards to be cracked out because he did not believe they met standard. I then politely explained my minimum grade request and very deep frustration about the process. They told me a customer supervisor would speak with me.

I spoke to the supervisor and was informed that PSA always take cards out of the case to inspect and nobody should have told me it could be done without removing the card from the seal. I presented them proof and they checked the video room conversation to verify my claim. From there - over the course of two months, we settled on a modest grading credit and for the cards to be slabbed as PSA 9s with no extra charge.

Fast forward, I get a call from the supervisor that the cards were regraded as 9s but they wanted me to pay the upcharge for $1K/each. At this point, I had to take a deep breath and firmly decline. They ended up waiving it, but I was not pleased.

In closing, PSA screwed me over, but worked with me to provide an outcome I can move on from. But damn - what a freaking mess.

Wow. That’s really discouraging and disappointing to hear. Another story that makes me hesitate to send my big cards to PSA. Just don’t trust that they’re going to put in Monday work on a Friday. I’m surprised they were willing to check the video and verify your claims. Seems they’re willing to create as much ill will as good lately.

[imbluestreak23]

At this point, it is almost as if we must have an individual contract with a TPG dictating, by contract, how the cards should be managed when the chain of custody passes from the customer to the TPG such that any deviation from the contract constitutes some form of damages payable by TPG.

This is a non starter of course for the TPG, but one could dream.

edit: for high end cards (I mean, RE agents get comped 5-6% for doing boring/low value add paperwork to move $500,000 homes, yet $500,000 cards are handed off with zero agreed upon expectations for handling, only a firm handshake and vote of confidence)

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

At this point, it is almost as if we must have an individual contract with a TPG dictating, by contract, how the cards should be managed when the chain of custody passes from the customer to the TPG such that any deviation from the contract constitutes some form of damages payable by TPG.

This is a non starter of course for the TPG, but one could dream.

edit: for high end cards (I mean, RE agents get comped 5-6% for doing boring/low value add paperwork to move $500,000 homes, yet $500,000 cards are handed off with zero agreed upon expectations for handling, only a firm handshake and vote of confidence)

yet another reason to only slab at the show