100 Cases - 2014 Bowman Baseball Player Auction - NO MORE BST - Page 123

cruiserdaddy7 · 05-07-2014, 07:53 PM

Why is everyone shocked there have been no red autos? Odds are like 1 per 26 jumbo cases I believe. Much worse on regular if I'm not mistaken.

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Why is everyone shocked there have been no red autos? Odds are like 1 per 26 jumbo cases I believe. Much worse on regular if I'm not mistaken.

....well we've opened 25 jumbo and 25 hobby so we should've hit one by now.

caulaflour · 05-07-2014, 07:58 PM

I missed it if it was said....are we cracking any tonight or are we waiting until tomorrow (after all the wheeling and dealing)?

72-Fins · 05-07-2014, 08:01 PM

Is there a hard cutoff for b/s/t ? Waiting for a response on a spot....

Andrew Jones · 05-07-2014, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hohlernr

....well we've opened 25 jumbo and 25 hobby so we should've hit one by now.

When I ran the numbers I came up with 1 red auto expected in the 100 cases. I posted this in the thread in the hobby talk forum prior to the break in response to people justifying the prices of the auto slots based on the chances of hitting a red auto.

houdini · 05-07-2014, 08:23 PM

Tallying the first 50 and toploading the last 1000 cards or so...

Will open SOME tonight, but will start again in earnest tomorrow.

cruiserdaddy7 · 05-07-2014, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hohlernr

....well we've opened 25 jumbo and 25 hobby so we should've hit one by now.

Reds are 1 per 160ish hobby cases. 1 per 26 or so jumbo. Why should one have been hit?

TehRegulator · 05-07-2014, 08:32 PM

Pd thatkidbilly for schoop auto spot cases 51-100 and traded renfroe base spot cases 51-100 to him

thatkidbilly · 05-07-2014, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TehRegulator

Pd thatkidbilly for schoop auto spot cases 51-100 and traded renfroe base spot cases 51-100 to him

I confirm this trade. thank you TehRegulator and Taste the "CHROME" Rainbow !!

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Reds are 1 per 160ish hobby cases. 1 per 26 or so jumbo. Why should one have been hit?

....well because of those odds you just stated. Clearly odds would suggest that we should've hit one by now. Not sure why you think otherwise?

statman32 · 05-07-2014, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Why is everyone shocked there have been no red autos? Odds are like 1 per 26 jumbo cases I believe. Much worse on regular if I'm not mistaken.

Not sure if this was in response to me saying it is crazy that we have yet to hit a purple-super auto so far, but if it is, the odds show that 1 of them should have been hit.

go_steelers07 · 05-07-2014, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hohlernr

....well because of those odds you just stated. Clearly odds would suggest that we should've hit one by now. Not sure why you think otherwise?

1 per 126 hobby cases....... 25 hobby cases opened (not expecting red)
1 in 26 HTA cases.............. 25 HTA cases opened (not expecting red, but close)

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by go_steelers07

1 per 126 hobby cases....... 25 hobby cases opened (not expecting red)

1 in 26 HTA cases.............. 25 HTA cases opened (not expecting red, but close)

Ok in simpler terms:
~0.2 reds should've been hit in the hobby cases
~0.96 reds should've been hit in the jumbo cases

So overall ~1.16 reds should've been hit. So yes I'm slightly surprised we haven't hit one.

cruiserdaddy7 · 05-07-2014, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hohlernr

....well because of those odds you just stated. Clearly odds would suggest that we should've hit one by now. Not sure why you think otherwise?

Um....

You have not had 160 Hobby cases opened. Nor have 26 jumbo cases been opened.

I know its been mentioned before but it seems people throw odds out the window and simply see 100 cases and think the odds do not apply. These first 50 cases have been a harsh reality to many.

To be very clear this is no reflection on the breaker. Its simply the odds.

cruiserdaddy7 · 05-07-2014, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hohlernr

Ok in simpler terms:
~0.2 reds should've been hit in the hobby cases
~0.96 reds should've been hit in the jumbo cases

So overall ~1.16 reds should've been hit. So yes I'm slightly surprised we haven't hit one.

I dont believe you want to add those together.

Dbott1234 · 05-07-2014, 08:52 PM

So that obviously means a red auto will be pulled in the next jumbo case right?

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

I dont believe you want to add those together.

I believe you would be wrong then.

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dbott1234

So that obviously means a red auto will be pulled in the next jumbo case right?

There's a 4% chance.

hobbiewt · 05-07-2014, 08:54 PM

Lets debate on who that 1 red auto is going to be

Dbott1234 · 05-07-2014, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hobbiewt

Lets debate on who that 1 red auto is going to be

I'll go with Tanaka!

cruiserdaddy7 · 05-07-2014, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hohlernr

I believe you would be wrong then.

No point in arguing. We are doing odds and averages. Division, not addition. You cannot add up the regular and jumbo and create the number you did. It is not proper mathematics.

The jumbo is due to hit a Red(one case 26 is opened), but that certainly is no sure thing. Based on odds you could do this 100 case break 3 times and not see a Red from Hobby.

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 08:56 PM

I'm really confused on why you don't think we should've hit one by now? Obviously simply opening 25jumbos and 25 hobby cases doesn't guarantee a red auto, but it certainly suggest one should've been pulled.

guestdent · 05-07-2014, 08:57 PM

I think what everyone is forgetting about the collation... Is Topps is in charge of it. All bets are off IMO when that happens.

caulaflour · 05-07-2014, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hobbiewt

Lets debate on who that 1 red auto is going to be

100% chance it's Wendell Rijo. You're crazy if you argue with those odds. It's clear as day.

hohlernr · 05-07-2014, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

No point in arguing. We are doing odds and averages. Division, not addition. You cannot add up the regular and jumbo and create the number you did. It is not proper mathematics.

The jumbo is due to hit a Red(one case 26 is opened), but that certainly is no sure thing. Based on odds you could do this 100 case break 3 times and not see a Red from Hobby.

Well you can add when you convert the numbers into red autos:

1 red auto/26 jumbo cases x25 jumbo cases= 0.96 red autos

Do the same with the hobby cases.

Unless I'm having a huge brain fart, I see no issue with this logic.

05-07-2014, 07:53 PM	#3051
cruiserdaddy7 Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 15,645 Cruiserdaddy7	Why is everyone shocked there have been no red autos? Odds are like 1 per 26 jumbo cases I believe. Much worse on regular if I'm not mistaken. __________________ Show me your friends and I'll show you your future. Last edited by cruiserdaddy7; 05-07-2014 at 07:56 PM.

05-07-2014, 07:58 PM	#3053
caulaflour Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 5,307	I missed it if it was said....are we cracking any tonight or are we waiting until tomorrow (after all the wheeling and dealing)? __________________ I only buy and sell (no trading) and I only ship to USA. Thanks.

05-07-2014, 08:01 PM	#3054
72-Fins Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Chicago Posts: 1,104 Big-Als-Cards	Is there a hard cutoff for b/s/t ? Waiting for a response on a spot.... __________________ Buying/Trading for JJ Watt 2011 NT /49 & /99 Autos & 2011 Chrome Color

05-07-2014, 08:23 PM	#3056
houdini member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 81,458	Tallying the first 50 and toploading the last 1000 cards or so... Will open SOME tonight, but will start again in earnest tomorrow. __________________ Descanse mi princesita 9/20/00-4/16/15

05-07-2014, 08:52 PM	#3066
Dbott1234 Member Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Florida Posts: 3,415 drewbutt9	So that obviously means a red auto will be pulled in the next jumbo case right? __________________ http://s1050.photobucket.com/albums/s409/dbottalico/Baseball%20Cards/ Instagram: WallStreetCards

05-07-2014, 08:32 PM	#3058
TehRegulator Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: San Diego, CA Posts: 465 technologyminded TehRegulator	Pd thatkidbilly for schoop auto spot cases 51-100 and traded renfroe base spot cases 51-100 to him

05-07-2014, 08:54 PM	#3069
hobbiewt Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Sarasota FL Posts: 1,925 bill_h42	Lets debate on who that 1 red auto is going to be

05-07-2014, 08:56 PM	#3072
hohlernr Member Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Midland, MI Posts: 2,761 RogerDorn24 hohlernr	I'm really confused on why you don't think we should've hit one by now? Obviously simply opening 25jumbos and 25 hobby cases doesn't guarantee a red auto, but it certainly suggest one should've been pulled. __________________ Always looking for Tyler Naquin, Dorssys Paulino, Jason Kipnis and Danny Salazar cards!

05-07-2014, 08:57 PM	#3073
guestdent Banned Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Connecticut, USA Posts: 643 guestdent	I think what everyone is forgetting about the collation... Is Topps is in charge of it. All bets are off IMO when that happens.