2022 Topps Holiday Baseball-11/30/22

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by BRob1

your odds above say odds are stated as 1:7 packs for SP and 1:20 for rare. that’s almost 3:1 but your calc is something like 5k for sp and 3500 for rare. something doesn’t line up?


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There are 50 different SPs. Only 25 Rare SPs (also 25 Super Rare or whatever we're going to call them).

So, ~2.85x as many total SPs (20/7), but spread across twice as big a checklist, so ~1.4x as many of each of them.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by zworykin

There are 50 different SPs. Only 25 Rare SPs (also 25 Super Rare or whatever we're going to call them).

So, ~2.85x as many total SPs (20/7), but spread across twice as big a checklist, so ~1.4x as many of each of them.

gotcha


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[PeteD]

Topps did a great job with the Metalic parallels, they really pop in person. The reds must be epic.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Since the talk has turned to metallic snowflakes, I'll take this opportunity to show of this beauty I picked up from eye4talent (thanks again, man).



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[PeteD]

There you go.

[PapaStu]

Originally Posted by PeteD

Topps did a great job with the Metalic parallels, they really pop in person. The reds must be epic.

They do look nice. I pulled one of Jonathan India in my 8 boxes that I opened right around xmas.

This is a simple and fun set to open, but as others have said, it can be a bit streaky with the packouts. My early Topps boxes were dropping Witt/Tork/Julio/Wanders/Cruz at almost one each per mega, then my Walmart ones weren't hitting quite as well in those base cards.

[Earlsnake07]

I need the following if anyone has them, just shoot me what it would be to ship all 6

6 - Yadier Molina
33 - Tyler Anders
86 - Cedrick Mullins
127 - William Woods - RC
145 - Bo Bichette
186 - Luke Williams - RC

Thanks!

[dale]

I just opened a box tonight that would throw off the odds a little for the regular SP's with the 819 code. Half of the cards in each pack came from the 819 stack. I pulled 41 SP's from this box, including dupes of some of them.

Originally Posted by zworykin

Base 200 cards, 1/1 gold snowflake parallel is 1:8,915, implied pack count 1,783,000.

SP is 50 cards, pack odds 1:7, implied print run 5,094.

SSP is 25 cards, pack odds 1:20, implied print run 3,566.

SSSP is 25 cards, pack odds 1:160, implied print run 445.

(edit - Apparently baseballcardpedia has some wrong odds, re-calculated with Beckett's stated odds)

(edit again - Note that regardless, the odds on this product don't seem to make any darn sense. For example there are 49 relic cards, the 1/1 pack odds are 1:23,370, that would imply only 1,145,130 packs. Or the autographs: there are 39, the 1/1 pack odds are 1:33,909, that would imply 1,322,451 packs. Auto relics, 24 of them, 1:52,404, implying 1,257,696 packs. Most ridiculous of all, holiday relics, there are 12, pack odds are 1:35,293, which would imply only 423,156 packs! So take it all with a grain of salt... but note that ALL of those would give you a lower pack count and therefore a lower print run on the SP/SSP/SSSPs. So perhaps consider the above numbers a ceiling.)

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by dale

I just opened a box tonight that would throw off the odds a little for the regular SP's with the 819 code. Half of the cards in each pack came from the 819 stack. I pulled 41 SP's from this box, including dupes of some of them.

topps!


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[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by dale

I just opened a box tonight that would throw off the odds a little for the regular SP's with the 819 code. Half of the cards in each pack came from the 819 stack. I pulled 41 SP's from this box, including dupes of some of them.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by dale

I just opened a box tonight that would throw off the odds a little for the regular SP's with the 819 code. Half of the cards in each pack came from the 819 stack. I pulled 41 SP's from this box, including dupes of some of them.

Well, the thing to remember about pack odds is they're approximate. Congrats! Too bad it didn't happen on a more valuable set, but I sure hope you got a bunch of the rookies.

And if Topps are being smart about it, they'd always round the pack odds in the direction of making pulls more common than promised - e.g., 1 in 6.2 packs and 1 in 6.8 packs would both round to "1:7" - underpromise and overdeliver. This would mean there were definitely extra SPs to be found, though putting 41 in one box is a bit extreme!

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Well, the thing to remember about pack odds is they're approximate. Congrats! Too bad it didn't happen on a more valuable set, but I sure hope you got a bunch of the rookies.

And if Topps are being smart about it, they'd always round the pack odds in the direction of making pulls more common than promised - e.g., 1 in 6.2 packs and 1 in 6.8 packs would both round to "1:7" - underpromise and overdeliver. This would mean there were definitely extra SPs to be found, though putting 41 in one box is a bit extreme!

i opened about 20 holiday megas and got exactly two sp’s in every box. If I got 40 sp’s I think 36 at least were the 19 variety and the rest were 20. None of the 21 sp’s. small sample size of course. would have liked to got the box with 41 sp’s!


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