Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[boxbuster7]

I find the overprinting really kicked in to gear for 2021 baseball products with a RC class that has been tepid at best. Literally nobody cares about Panini mosaic, prizm, chronicles, etc. - Why panini needed to print all these standalone baseball sets is just dumb.

But Topps also overprinted the crap out of 2021 stuff also. The manufacturers are responsible for this crash as much as anybody. It is like they're trying to make up for the business they did not get from the 2020 explosion in cards.

And of course Panini still releasing 2020/2021 basketball products during the 21/22 season did not help anything.

[hermanotarjeta]

It's incredible how many different parallels there are of specific players in each sport.

Want a Mike Trout serial numbered to 100 or less? Dealers have hundreds of them.

Want a Stephen Curry numbered to 100 or less? Dealers have hundreds of them.

People have showcases full of single player cards.

Need a serial numbered Justin Herbert rookie? I saw a guy with two showcases full of them.

People don't realize that the overproduction and over-parallelization is what killed the insert craze in the late 90's-early 2000's. That's when buyers said enough was enough and they transitioned into game used and autos.

It's all happening again, but this time the target is a much easier victim - investor bois who hate their day jobs and are finding ways to make a quick buck.

[theshowandme]

I saw someone comp an Authentic 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle this weekend with the ALT app. I wish this was satire

[ThoseBackPages]

i think that is awesome!

for the many, not the few

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

It's reached a point that I don't know what design is what year anymore. (Mainly football, so all we get is Panini crap). I know every year of Topps for decades. Couldn't tell you what year of generally anything that Panini has put out for the last decade in football. All of it looks the same, year after year.

It's the same for Topps....I can identify every Topps design from 1951-1990 on sight....after that it's hard to tell.

Allen & Ginter, GQ, Museum, Gold Label, Stadium Club, etc. all look pretty much the same from year to year.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It's incredible how many different parallels there are of specific players in each sport.

Want a Mike Trout serial numbered to 100 or less? Dealers have hundreds of them.

Want a Stephen Curry numbered to 100 or less? Dealers have hundreds of them.

People have showcases full of single player cards.

Need a serial numbered Justin Herbert rookie? I saw a guy with two showcases full of them.

People don't realize that the overproduction and over-parallelization is what killed the insert craze in the late 90's-early 2000's. That's when buyers said enough was enough and they transitioned into game used and autos.

It's all happening again, but this time the target is a much easier victim - investor bois who hate their day jobs and are finding ways to make a quick buck.

Bingo.....way too many parallels of everything.....most of them utterly worthless....

[tconte]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Bingo.....way too many parallels of everything.....most of them utterly worthless....

I know what you mean! I wanted a Tyrese Maxey parallel for my collections.
Somthing that was limited and cool. There were so many to choose from that
I got a headache looking. Eventually I bought one but the choices are
endless.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

14 days without an ebay sale on my end for the first time quite possibly since 2014. I sent out a ton of offers last sunday and only got joker counters. All my counted metrics at all time lows. Retail finally back to sitting on shelves. We should be course correcting every aspect soon.

I must have taken your sales Isaac Paredes got hot leading me to a bunch of sales which started the eBay algorithm snowball.

The course correction started long ago with the common PSA stuff. It has almost certainly spread to BCA. Wax is only a matter of time.

Originally Posted by anusinha

Wax is the last bubble, its waaaayyyy overpriced for the value inside.

Agree.

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Wax is as close to bubble-proof as you can get. Every day for infinity, the number of sealed boxes goes down due to opening …. With graded cards, the opposite is true - the pop always goes up

Disagree. The price of the most blue chip of blue chips of anything is still dependent on the overall amount of money flowing through the hobby.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by cbuskstwar

Update from show in Ohio:

Nobody looking at Basketball or even asking
Everyone wants Tom Brady rookies
Prizm football retail boxes were selling at eBay ++

Basketball is in the depths of the offseason, no? I would liken this to baseball in November.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's the same for Topps....I can identify every Topps design from 1951-1990 on sight....after that it's hard to tell.

Allen & Ginter, GQ, Museum, Gold Label, Stadium Club, etc. all look pretty much the same from year to year.

I’d even take it a step further - if the card can’t be identified from five feet away (year/make/model) it really doesn’t need to exist.

[Boredlawyer]

Have some nice tough, rare baseball wax currently ending and the prices are laughably and painfully low, theres that.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Have some nice tough, rare baseball wax currently ending and the prices are laughably and painfully low, theres that.

The problem with most wax is that 98% of the players are out of the league or not even worth anywhere near the cost of the product. So in order to profit on it, you have to resell it sealed. AKA the greater fool theory.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Have some nice tough, rare baseball wax currently ending and the prices are laughably and painfully low, theres that.

…. and this is the tricky part: timing

If your Wax has key cards of retired players? - they are no longer in the spotlight unless there’s some type of event - HOF induction, a Movie about their life if they’re long ago retired, etc etc

If your wax has key cards of active Players? - they virtually need to be in the news right when your selling for having a Career year, hitting some statistical milestone or record breaking accomplishment.

I’m presently a Wax Buyer only — so don’t know the pain you reference at this moment - ouch!

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

man, i cant wait for chromium retail to be sitting on shelves again!

It could happen if they raise the price of it to $40+ a blaster...

[The_Reverend]

All of the markets are down and the fact baseball is down with the Yankees and Aaron Judge doing their thing and Trout and Ohtani doing their things says a lot. Under normal market conditions those players would be on fire. As it is related to wax, people are chasing retail to rip becasue hobby is overpriced AND overproduced! Panini baseball will make great fire starters down the line. The only sport that is not overproduced is hockey!

That is one of the more stable markets, but even their wax prices are ridiculous. There are far more “steals” in that market than the others. People don’t really understand that market, but do the flippers really understand F1?

[solt0131]

For the market being in such bad shape, the crowd this weekend at the Chantilly show was very strong, even for Sunday. Although here are 3 things I will point out:

1) Dealer to dealer stuff was way down from what I heard.

2) A lot and I mean ALOT of people wanted to trade instead of sell their cards.

3) If your stuff was priced to sell, it sold but from what I heard, a lot was 10-20% above current eBay and obviously had not been updated in over a month.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by solt0131

For the market being in such bad shape, the crowd this weekend at the Chantilly show was very strong, even for Sunday. Although here are 3 things I will point out:

1) Dealer to dealer stuff was way down from what I heard.

2) A lot and I mean ALOT of people wanted to trade instead of sell their cards.

3) If your stuff was priced to sell, it sold but from what I heard, a lot was 10-20% above current eBay and obviously had not been updated in over a month.

The dealer to dealer stuff, I assume you mean dealers walking around buying up other dealers stuff?

My lone experience was the dealers (mostly before it started) would walk around to just see what you have or try and lowball you on items. Had one guy try to buy all my cards. Had 3 shoebox full of quarter cards and another shoebox full of $1+ (over $700 value) along with my graded. He wanted to buy my quarter boxes for $10 (literally sold several cards in there for more) and the $1+ box for under $50. From my experience it was them trying to basically have you give it to them for free.

[clsports]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It's incredible how many different parallels there are of specific players in each sport.

Want a Mike Trout serial numbered to 100 or less? Dealers have hundreds of them.

Want a Stephen Curry numbered to 100 or less? Dealers have hundreds of them.

People have showcases full of single player cards.

Need a serial numbered Justin Herbert rookie? I saw a guy with two showcases full of them.

People don't realize that the overproduction and over-parallelization is what killed the insert craze in the late 90's-early 2000's. That's when buyers said enough was enough and they transitioned into game used and autos.

Precisely. I could not have said it better myself. Watered down is what I call it.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Have some nice tough, rare baseball wax currently ending and the prices are laughably and painfully low, theres that.

You got me curious. Link?

Or what exactly is the wax?

[Neal]

Originally Posted by notfast

This show has the worst prices consistently. Needs new dealers.

I see a few new ones almost every show but rarely stop over. Only one or two guys selling vintage but they seemed to be priced fairly

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

All of the markets are down and the fact baseball is down with the Yankees and Aaron Judge doing their thing and Trout and Ohtani doing their things says a lot. Under normal market conditions those players would be on fire. As it is related to wax, people are chasing retail to rip becasue hobby is overpriced AND overproduced! Panini baseball will make great fire starters down the line. The only sport that is not overproduced is hockey!

That is one of the more stable markets, but even their wax prices are ridiculous. There are far more “steals” in that market than the others. People don’t really understand that market, but do the flippers really understand F1?

Yes I said it a couple years ago-- PSA 10 Topps Update Trout is the barometer of the hobby. Down to $2k even though he's having a great year = modern hobby is getting pummeled.

[jharri71]

I've been buying 70's cards and will put together a Cubs team set for 2022 s1,s2,s3 and heritage team set.

Too many parallels for me!

[k13]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Yes I said it a couple years ago-- PSA 10 Topps Update Trout is the barometer of the hobby. Down to $2k even though he's having a great year = modern hobby is getting pummeled.

Cale Makar had a great year and won stanley cup.
His base paper rc psa 10 is $1400 usd now and comes from a 19-20 set.

This card was cheaper earlier in the year.

In hockey when players play well they go up...even though its the least popular sport...funny how that goes.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Yes I said it a couple years ago-- PSA 10 Topps Update Trout is the barometer of the hobby. Down to $2k even though he's having a great year = modern hobby is getting pummeled.

I was wondering how much of that was last year and how much this year. It turns out at the April peak it was maybe a little under $3k, but not by much. It looks like it dropped about $500 in each of May and June.

Does anybody remember how much Trout Update PSA 10 was in late 2019 or early 2020?

I'm going to re-do my Price Index here in a couple of weeks and I'm expecting it to be bad. I've already adjusted my expectations for sales and purchases downward.

Now the question begs....when will it stop?

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by k13

Cale Makar had a great year and won stanley cup.
His base paper rc psa 10 is $1400 usd now and comes from a 19-20 set.

This card was cheaper earlier in the year.

In hockey when players play well they go up...even though its the least popular sport...funny how that goes.

Sure: far fewer marketers, flippers, paid influencers, auction house employees, breakers - essentially middle people - attempting to live off the hockey hobby than the baseball hobby making it more expensive.