Patrick Mahomes Prices - Page 1137

imbluestreak23 · 10-21-2022, 08:20 AM

Ohtani Red looked strong. Makes my orange hold less concerning

But he is the beisbol GOAT

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 09:47 AM

The Mahomes Gold Vinyl is a reason not to do high end auctions right now. Too saturated between PWCC/ALT/ and Goldin.

I had no intention of bidding on it because I thought it would do $250k+, but if my PWCC Rep had told me I could have it for $150k, I would have bought it myself.

As for the Brady Champ ticket, I thought that was a considerably strong sale given the macro-economic conditions. From $3.1MM down to $2.4MM.... I don't know many speculative assets that haven't taken a 23% bath this last year.

It could be worse.... a Joe Burrow NT Gold /10 sold for $30k when a Josh Giddy sold for $34k. I really think it's because so many people got absolutely burnt chasing QBs like Lance, Lawrence, Fields, Jones, Etc.

KhalDrogo · 10-21-2022, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjforce

I had no intention of bidding on it because I thought it would do $250k+, but if my PWCC Rep had told me I could have it for $150k, I would have bought it myself.

How would the PWCC rep know what the card is going to sell for?

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

How would the PWCC rep know what the card is going to sell for?

It's part of his job to shop things for me and other clients to buy and sell on the private market (and take his commission).

If he had been able to get a feel for where the market was on this, he could have reached out to me, or other buyers, to try to make a private deal. I would have taken that deal at $150k.

If he could have convinced both sides that this was the best route (and he would have been right), the seller gets a better price, I get the card I want, and the PWCC rep gets his commission.

pcptrade · 10-21-2022, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

How would the PWCC rep know what the card is going to sell for?

I think tj is referring to private sale. The owners of these kind of cards are usually looking for a private sale at a higher ask price. Not sure if that was the case with this card.

KhalDrogo · 10-21-2022, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

I think tj is referring to private sale. The owners of these kind of cards are usually looking for a private sale at a higher ask price. Not sure if that was the case with this card.

If you’d buy it privately for 150, why would you not bid on it publicly for 150?

pcptrade · 10-21-2022, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjforce

It's part of his job to shop things for me and other clients to buy and sell on the private market (and take his commission).

If he had been able to get a feel for where the market was on this, he could have reached out to me, or other buyers, to try to make a private deal. I would have taken that deal at $150k.

If he could have convinced both sides that this was the best route (and he would have been right), the seller gets a better price, I get the card I want, and the PWCC rep gets his commission.

The owner did not want to sell for 150K in a private deal obviously. He was looking for more and felt it would fetch more at an auction, which was a huge risk especially in the current market condition.

pcptrade · 10-21-2022, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If you’d buy it privately for 150, why would you not bid on it publicly for 150?

Good question. It sold for 138K with BP. tj could have had it for 150K. Perhaps he did not want to get into a bidding war.

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

If you’d buy it privately for 150, why would you not bid on it publicly for 150?

Because it would take planning for me to get the $150k in my account.

When I saw the card come up to auction, I was expecting it to go in the $250k+ range, so I didn't even bother tracking it closely. There are a lot of cards I would buy at the right price, but most of them go over that price at auction. This was an exception.

KhalDrogo · 10-21-2022, 10:23 AM

Holding out for the right price privately in a declining market is playing with fire unless you have no real intention to sell anyway. You may never find your buyer, and now it’s a year later and your card has depreciated by 50% because other people are selling at auction.

There are a handful of guys on IG that I have seen posting the same cards over and over again for sale over the past 6-12 months. The price they want today is less than what the market was when they were first offering it for sale. Brilliant stuff.

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Good question. It sold for 138K with BP. tj could have had it for 150K. Perhaps he did not want to get into a bidding war.

There's a reason why I've never done any deals over $30k at auction, and all of my high end deals have been private.

I value the financial planning aspect of a private deal, and it helps me to avoid getting caught up in the heat of the moment of an auction. My comfort zone is in making a several thousand dollar mistake in the waning moments of an auction, but not a several 10s of thousands mistake.

KhalDrogo · 10-21-2022, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjforce

Because it would take planning for me to get the $150k in my account.

Buy now, plan later. If it’s truly that big of a steal. Knowing what you own, you could have easily offered up a few cards for consignment in order to cover the tab.

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Holding out for the right price privately in a declining market is playing with fire unless you have no real intention to sell anyway. You may never find your buyer, and now it’s a year later and your card has depreciated by 50% because other people are selling at auction.

There are a handful of guys on IG that I have seen posting the same cards over and over again for sale over the past 6-12 months. The price they want today is less than what the market was when they were first offering it for sale. Brilliant stuff.

It's worked very well for me in this past year, so I don't know what to say about those IG guys, but I'm pretty happy with the results.

pcptrade · 10-21-2022, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Holding out for the right price privately in a declining market is playing with fire unless you have no real intention to sell anyway. You may never find your buyer, and now it’s a year later and your card has depreciated by 50% because other people are selling at auction.

There are a handful of guys on IG that I have seen posting the same cards over and over again for sale over the past 6-12 months. The price they want today is less than what the market was when they were first offering it for sale. Brilliant stuff.

I received an email from Goldin private sales team in July, which had a list of more than 100 cards (basketball, football, baseball) worth more than $5 million. The owners were not able to find buyers at their ask price in a private deal. Most of the cards in that list showed up in their public auction later and sold for 40-50% less than the original ask price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Buy now, plan later. If it’s truly that big of a steal. Knowing what you own, you could have easily offered up a few cards for consignment in order to cover the tab.

What if his cards undersell and he owes them money, which is very likely right now. Also, there is no guarantee that he would have won the gold vinyl for 150K. All it takes is a bidding war between two prospective buyers.

imbluestreak23 · 10-21-2022, 10:32 AM

I agree with you TJ, all things considered, high end is down, but just stepping back and thinking about how much cardboard is STILL going for is kinda crazy.

Looks like Prizm Mahomes autos have just about bottomed out as those look to be selling for consistent amounts. Other stuff has a ways to go go down. Totally dependent on the card/player

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Buy now, plan later. If it’s truly that big of a steal. Knowing what you own, you could have easily offered up a few cards for consignment in order to cover the tab.

That's one of the limiting factors with the extended bidding time...

If I were to bid on 4-5 cards at the before extending bidding, I might end up in a situation where I win more than I wanted or could afford. While I could swing the $150k for the Mahomes GV, if I had also won the Burrow NT Gold for $31k, and say a Giannis Prizm Silver for $20k, then that might be more in total than I'd be willing to pay.

Meaning that each card might be a buy on it's own, but if I happened to win them all I'd be cutting too deep into the rest of my collection to pay for them.

Not everybody operates this way, but I've always been pretty conservative about going into debt/paying for cards with other cards.

KhalDrogo · 10-21-2022, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjforce

That's one of the limiting factors with the extended bidding time...

If I were to bid on 4-5 cards at the before extending bidding, I might end up in a situation where I win more than I wanted or could afford. While I could swing the $150k for the Mahomes GV, if I had also won the Burrow NT Gold for $31k, and say a Giannis Prizm Silver for $20k, then that might be more in total than I'd be willing to pay.

Meaning that each card might be a buy on it's own, but if I happened to win them all I'd be cutting too deep into the rest of my collection to pay for them.

Not everybody operates this way, but I've always been pretty conservative about going into debt/paying for cards with other cards.

I certainly agree with all this.

And it wasn’t your intention, but your post perfectly highlights the liquidity issue the upper end of the market appears to be facing right now. As I’ve long contended, most of these cards have been getting paid for with future consignments. This worked perfectly when cards were appreciating every month. When they’re in a decline, it’s a vicious cycle.

Buy card
Pay with future consignment
Future consignment falls short
Send in more consignment
Market is oversaturated
Prices fall

Rinse and repeat. Too many of these six figure cards are in the hands of people who don’t have enough cash flow to justify holding them, and don’t have the liquidity to buy when opportunity presents itself.

notfast · 10-21-2022, 10:58 AM

The last few comments show factors that are more problematic in the ultra high end market, which is one of the reasons that market is having serious issues IMO.

I don’t need to make “decisions” to drop $5-10k on a card that I think is a “deal.” Sure, some people wouldn’t néed to do what is being discussed to buy that Mahomes vinyl but when you have a limited buyer pool AND combine that with what is being talked about…it’s an issue.

pcptrade · 10-21-2022, 11:28 AM

Some modern grail cards that show up on auction almost every month and their current market cap after the 25% plus correction from peak pandemic prices-

Brady Champ Ticket/100- Approx $75 million.
Lebron Exquiste RPA/99- Approx $75 million
Curry NT RPA/99- Approx $30 million
MJ 86F PSA 10 (pop of ~320): Approx $60 million. Market cap used to be $200 million based on the pandemic peak prices.

Add in the market cap for prospects such as Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Luka, Soto etc. All these peak pandemic market caps are not sustainable once inflow of new money stops. There is no way 300 MJ 86F PSA 10's would be scooped up for 700K each, especially when majority of the buyers are flippers. Let us look at Brady 2000 BC PSA 10 whose pop is 1122. At peak pandemic price of 20K, its market cap was approx $22 million, which was not sustainable imo. The PSA 10 prices have dropped to 8K now (market cap 8 million). I don't think it will go back to those peak pandemic market cap unless more collectors/investors and new money/capital enters the market. What we are seeing right now is money being rotated within the market, i.e; buying using future consignment.

notfast · 10-21-2022, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcptrade

What we are seeing right now is money being rotating within the market, i.e; buying using future consignment.

I also think that people took capital loans on their cards at these higher values and now are stuck, forcing them to sell off things.

pcptrade · 10-21-2022, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notfast

I also think that people took capital loans on their cards at these higher values and now are stuck, forcing them to sell off things.

Agree. High end went up mostly because of combination of new entrants (capital inflow), fractional share companies and existing collectors selling low end for profit and upgrading to the high end, all of which are taking a hit right now.

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I certainly agree with all this.

And it wasn’t your intention, but your post perfectly highlights the liquidity issue the upper end of the market appears to be facing right now. As I’ve long contended, most of these cards have been getting paid for with future consignments. This worked perfectly when cards were appreciating every month. When they’re in a decline, it’s a vicious cycle.

Buy card
Pay with future consignment
Future consignment falls short
Send in more consignment
Market is oversaturated
Prices fall

Rinse and repeat. Too many of these six figure cards are in the hands of people who don’t have enough cash flow to justify holding them, and don’t have the liquidity to buy when opportunity presents itself.

I can't speak for everybody, but my personal strategy is to always keep a mix of cards and card-related cash.

So while I *could* have gone out and used all cash to buy something like the Mahomes GV, I wouldn't actually do that, because my cash reserves would then be out of whack.

It would take a good amount of time and thought for me to take inventory of my collection, decided what and how much to move, and how much cash I want to leave in the pool.

Sure, I could always just hit up PWCC for a loan and figure that out later, but there's a cost to that, and I wouldn't be buying the card to try and flip in 3 months. I'd be buying it to hold for a long while, or until someone made me an offer I couldn't refuse. And I don't want to pay 1% interest per month until that happens.

tjforce · 10-21-2022, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notfast

The last few comments show factors that are more problematic in the ultra high end market, which is one of the reasons that market is having serious issues IMO.

I don’t need to make “decisions” to drop $5-10k on a card that I think is a “deal.” Sure, some people wouldn’t néed to do what is being discussed to buy that Mahomes vinyl but when you have a limited buyer pool AND combine that with what is being talked about…it’s an issue.

It's all about the pool of buyers.

To some people (and me at one point in my life), dropping $5-10k on a card is a major life decision. But a lot more people can take a $5k risk with the payoff being $50k plus if something is a hit than the number of people who can do the same with 6 figures.

KhalDrogo · 10-21-2022, 12:11 PM

Your posts are strong support that there are liquidity issues at the upper end of the market.

For $1 to $100 cards, there are virtually no buyers who have contingencies on their purchase.

For $100-$1000, there are a small number of buyers who have contingencies.

For $1000-10000, that number grows further.

For $10000-100000, it swells even more.

And for $100000+, I would bet the house that the average buyer over the last two years wasn’t able to buy without some sort of planning.

cardsharkk · 10-21-2022, 12:14 PM

Prices are SCARY for mahomes high end.

National Treasure RPA /99 BGS 9 sold for $36,000 last night in PWCC premier. For comparison:

few months back on 5/19/22 sold for $88,000
then again 6/16/22 $78,000
10/20/22 $36,000

Gold Vinyl /5 BGS 9.5:

8/18/22 sells for $360,000 with BP
10/20/22 sells for $136,000 with BP

Drops 65% in 2 MONTHS??? Think about that 2 months....
a Pop 2, GRAIL card.

Another grail: Mahomes National Treasure Black RPA /5 BGS 9 Mint Pop 3

1/23/22 $630,000
7/21/22 $288,000
9/23/22 $216,000

It dropped $400,000 in 1 year... I am the guy who sold his with Goldin and only got $216k. It floored me. Luckily I only paid $2,000 but its scary lesson people lighting their money on fire.

IMO biggest factors right now contributiing to falling prices are the economy #1, and its outlook.
Plus all the manipulation that went on the past few years.

10-21-2022, 08:20 AM	#28401
imbluestreak23 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out Posts: 17,578 shortslabs	Ohtani Red looked strong. Makes my orange hold less concerning But he is the beisbol GOAT __________________ @shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort

10-21-2022, 09:47 AM	#28402
tjforce Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 23,008	The Mahomes Gold Vinyl is a reason not to do high end auctions right now. Too saturated between PWCC/ALT/ and Goldin. I had no intention of bidding on it because I thought it would do $250k+, but if my PWCC Rep had told me I could have it for $150k, I would have bought it myself. As for the Brady Champ ticket, I thought that was a considerably strong sale given the macro-economic conditions. From $3.1MM down to $2.4MM.... I don't know many speculative assets that haven't taken a 23% bath this last year. It could be worse.... a Joe Burrow NT Gold /10 sold for $30k when a Josh Giddy sold for $34k. I really think it's because so many people got absolutely burnt chasing QBs like Lance, Lawrence, Fields, Jones, Etc. __________________ "Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!" Last edited by tjforce; 10-21-2022 at 09:49 AM.

10-21-2022, 10:23 AM	#28410
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,084	Holding out for the right price privately in a declining market is playing with fire unless you have no real intention to sell anyway. You may never find your buyer, and now it’s a year later and your card has depreciated by 50% because other people are selling at auction. There are a handful of guys on IG that I have seen posting the same cards over and over again for sale over the past 6-12 months. The price they want today is less than what the market was when they were first offering it for sale. Brilliant stuff. __________________ I love PSA!

10-21-2022, 10:32 AM	#28415
imbluestreak23 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out Posts: 17,578 shortslabs	I agree with you TJ, all things considered, high end is down, but just stepping back and thinking about how much cardboard is STILL going for is kinda crazy. Looks like Prizm Mahomes autos have just about bottomed out as those look to be selling for consistent amounts. Other stuff has a ways to go go down. Totally dependent on the card/player __________________ @shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort

10-21-2022, 11:28 AM	#28419
pcptrade Member Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 7,630	Some modern grail cards that show up on auction almost every month and their current market cap after the 25% plus correction from peak pandemic prices- Brady Champ Ticket/100- Approx $75 million. Lebron Exquiste RPA/99- Approx $75 million Curry NT RPA/99- Approx $30 million MJ 86F PSA 10 (pop of ~320): Approx $60 million. Market cap used to be $200 million based on the pandemic peak prices. Add in the market cap for prospects such as Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Luka, Soto etc. All these peak pandemic market caps are not sustainable once inflow of new money stops. There is no way 300 MJ 86F PSA 10's would be scooped up for 700K each, especially when majority of the buyers are flippers. Let us look at Brady 2000 BC PSA 10 whose pop is 1122. At peak pandemic price of 20K, its market cap was approx $22 million, which was not sustainable imo. The PSA 10 prices have dropped to 8K now (market cap 8 million). I don't think it will go back to those peak pandemic market cap unless more collectors/investors and new money/capital enters the market. What we are seeing right now is money being rotated within the market, i.e; buying using future consignment. __________________ Jealousy is a form of hatred built on Insecurity. It's the unhappy and insecure people who show hatred, jealousy and try to bring others down. Instagram:icollector23, Flickr:https://www.flickr.com/photos/144335251@N08/albums Last edited by pcptrade; 10-21-2022 at 12:06 PM. Reason: typo

10-21-2022, 10:58 AM	#28418
notfast Member Join Date: Jul 2017 Location: MD Posts: 4,033	The last few comments show factors that are more problematic in the ultra high end market, which is one of the reasons that market is having serious issues IMO. I don’t need to make “decisions” to drop $5-10k on a card that I think is a “deal.” Sure, some people wouldn’t néed to do what is being discussed to buy that Mahomes vinyl but when you have a limited buyer pool AND combine that with what is being talked about…it’s an issue.

10-21-2022, 12:11 PM	#28424
KhalDrogo Member Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 41,084	Your posts are strong support that there are liquidity issues at the upper end of the market. For $1 to $100 cards, there are virtually no buyers who have contingencies on their purchase. For $100-$1000, there are a small number of buyers who have contingencies. For $1000-10000, that number grows further. For $10000-100000, it swells even more. And for $100000+, I would bet the house that the average buyer over the last two years wasn’t able to buy without some sort of planning. __________________ I love PSA!

10-21-2022, 12:14 PM	#28425
cardsharkk Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 3,578	Prices are SCARY for mahomes high end. National Treasure RPA /99 BGS 9 sold for $36,000 last night in PWCC premier. For comparison: few months back on 5/19/22 sold for $88,000 then again 6/16/22 $78,000 10/20/22 $36,000 Gold Vinyl /5 BGS 9.5: 8/18/22 sells for $360,000 with BP 10/20/22 sells for $136,000 with BP Drops 65% in 2 MONTHS??? Think about that 2 months.... a Pop 2, GRAIL card. Another grail: Mahomes National Treasure Black RPA /5 BGS 9 Mint Pop 3 1/23/22 $630,000 7/21/22 $288,000 9/23/22 $216,000 It dropped $400,000 in 1 year... I am the guy who sold his with Goldin and only got $216k. It floored me. Luckily I only paid $2,000 but its scary lesson people lighting their money on fire. IMO biggest factors right now contributiing to falling prices are the economy #1, and its outlook. Plus all the manipulation that went on the past few years. Last edited by cardsharkk; 10-21-2022 at 12:28 PM.