Those that purchased expensive cards in Jan-Feb this year and are down big

[benny716]

Originally Posted by golfgasm

If you are pressured to sell now (notice I didn't say down on your investment) then you have a flawed business model and/or are spending above your means. You should actually be buying now. in fact, now is a great time to buy PSA 9 and even PSA 8 stuff of certain non ultra modern releases. You don't sit down at a high limit poker game when you make $10 an hour. Stocks and many cards are all a turtle race...sure we had our kicks in this boom and it was fun but it will happen again; perhaps not so dramatic. It always does.

YUUUUP

buy low, sell high, i think thats the earth shattering model i've been putting into practice

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by benny716

YUUUUP

buy low, sell high, i think thats the earth shattering model i've been putting into practice

Of course it’s a trivially simple idea but you overestimate the intellect, perspective and (most importantly), the means of the median wannabe card “investor”. The number of people who spend above what they can (forget what they “should”) is staggering. No one wants to talk about it or admit they are part of the group who is maxing out a 35% APR credit card to go all in on pop 20,000 base cards. The number of times I’ve seen a group break participant say something like “can I pay on Friday” or “just need to wait for a few sales to go through and then I can pay” is heartbreaking.

Buy low/sell high only works if you don’t have to worry about liquidity, but there are tons of people that do. And yes it sounds mean to say “if you can’t afford it, you should stay away” but whether you cash your paycheck on the way to a casino or take one spot in a high end Flawless random player break on your credit card, it’s the same.

I don’t claim to know what prices will look like in a year or 5 but the next wave of drawdowns (starting with PSA delay-induced losses) could really hurt some people.

[Springerj23]

Anyone "investing" in sports cards on credit is asking for trouble. As with any market, there are sharks always lurking, and its pretty easy to see that an upcoming buying opportunity will be presenting itself for true collectors and savvy buyers in the upcoming 6-12 months, especially if things don't stabilize and continue on a downward trend.

No savvy or financially sound investor is going to buy high and sell low. Those that are upside down and need to recoup costs just to see daylight will be selling. Things will be ugly for some.

Pricing is always relative to when you bought in, no matter the market. Pricing is down 50%-60% from February peak, but is still substantially higher compared to pre 2018.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by Springerj23

Anyone "investing" in sports cards on credit is asking for trouble. As with any market, there are sharks always lurking, and its pretty easy to see that an upcoming buying opportunity will be presenting itself for true collectors and savvy buyers in the upcoming 6-12 months, especially if things don't stabilize and continue on a downward trend.

No savvy or financially sound investor is going to buy high and sell low. Those that are upside down and need to recoup costs just to see daylight will be selling. Things will be ugly for some.

Pricing is always relative to when you bought in, no matter the market. Pricing is down 50%-60% from February peak, but is still substantially higher compared to pre 2018.

Absolutely but the number of people who are already far under water is large and increasing. And many don’t have the ability to ride it out (if it is a temporary drawdown).

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Steve88

I will be buying them up if they ever fall below $100. It’s the most printed RC of his but it’s also the one with the most brand recognition


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To who? Not to vintage collectors. Topps most popular period was 1952-1967. During that period Topps made 1 set that sold poorly. The years of Topps monopoly, Fall of 1969- Spring 1982 coincided with the NBA at its least popular. Sales were so bad that Topps quit making cards, the only one of the 4 major sports that they did. When basketball cards became popular in the 1988-91 period, Topps didn't even make cards. When they did, Topps was seen as junk. Collectors wanted Stadium, then Finest, then Chrome.

To collectors Topps will always be junk. To speculators and flippers it is a mass produced card that they can buy up and hype to make money on. It is a game of musical chairs. I hope you aren't still holding when the music stops and there is no one over paying for these.

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by rats60

To who? Not to vintage collectors. Topps most popular period was 1952-1967. During that period Topps made 1 set that sold poorly. The years of Topps monopoly, Fall of 1969- Spring 1982 coincided with the NBA at its least popular. Sales were so bad that Topps quit making cards, the only one of the 4 major sports that they did. When basketball cards became popular in the 1988-91 period, Topps didn't even make cards. When they did, Topps was seen as junk. Collectors wanted Stadium, then Finest, then Chrome.

To collectors Topps will always be junk. To speculators and flippers it is a mass produced card that they can buy up and hype to make money on. It is a game of musical chairs. I hope you aren't still holding when the music stops and there is no one over paying for these.

I never quite understood the hype that took over on modern 92-09 topps cards. Now, some argued brand lineage and consistency, which sure can be kind of nice but in the end I could never shake off the fact that these were super high supplied and as a kid in 90s base topps was always viewed as non-rare trash basically.

[tmar214]

Originally Posted by benny716

YUUUUP

buy low, sell high, i think thats the earth shattering model i've been putting into practice

Is right now high or low?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

Absolutely but the number of people who are already far under water is large and increasing. And many don’t have the ability to ride it out (if it is a temporary drawdown).

How many people?

[Ericc5Bears]

Originally Posted by tmar214

Is right now high or low?

Exactly lol, "Buy low sell high" sounds great in theory but in a volatile market like this nobody knows what low and high even is. A few weeks ago I sold a Lebron chrome 9 for 6k when 2 months prior it was a 10k card. Back then that would've been the textbook definition of "selling low." Now here we are a few weeks later and PWCC/Probstein listings of the same cards were barely breaking 4k on auction last night. Buying low always sounds good in theory until what you bought drops another 25% and you realize you actually bought high.

[Steve88]

Originally Posted by rats60

To who? Not to vintage collectors. Topps most popular period was 1952-1967. During that period Topps made 1 set that sold poorly. The years of Topps monopoly, Fall of 1969- Spring 1982 coincided with the NBA at its least popular. Sales were so bad that Topps quit making cards, the only one of the 4 major sports that they did. When basketball cards became popular in the 1988-91 period, Topps didn't even make cards. When they did, Topps was seen as junk. Collectors wanted Stadium, then Finest, then Chrome.

To collectors Topps will always be junk. To speculators and flippers it is a mass produced card that they can buy up and hype to make money on. It is a game of musical chairs. I hope you aren't still holding when the music stops and there is no one over paying for these.

Recognition by most noobs such as myself. I was bamboozled into buying one in April and I guess i'll be bag holding one now. What would you say a fair value for the paper Topps would be?

[theleica]

No one knew where the top was and no one knows where the bottom is. With life getting back to normal more and more everyday, I personally know I don't have as much time to dedicate to cards. I know many others in the same boat.

I haven't bought many cards in 9 months now because of my personal assessment of risk. That said it was a seller's market and I took advantage. I am left with a much better collection of cards I love than a few years ago and a house that I bought, gutted and remodeled during that time from selling cards. As a result, I am happier, my wife is happier, and my kids have a quiet dead-end street to play and explore.

That said, I have my eye on some cards I want for my collection as this becomes a buyers market. And I will take advantage of it.

[k13]

Some recent examples of popular players/sets.
These are less than a week of each other.

Basketball

PSA 10 Prizm rc $120
PSA 9 Prizm silver rc $100
PSA 9 Prizm /299 red rc $165
Raw $10

PSA 10 Select rc $80
PSA 9 Select silver rc $80
Raw $5

Soccer

PSA 10 Prizm $500
PSA 9 Prizm /99 purple $300
Raw $20

This was never about base cards this was always about PSA 10's

[Zacy87]

Originally Posted by k13

Some recent examples of popular players/sets.
These are less than a week of each other.

Basketball

PSA 10 Prizm rc $120
PSA 9 Prizm silver rc $100
PSA 9 Prizm /299 red rc $165
Raw $10

PSA 10 Select rc $80
PSA 9 Select silver rc $80
Raw $5

Soccer

PSA 10 Prizm $500
PSA 9 Prizm /99 purple $300
Raw $20

This was never about base cards this was always about PSA 10's

Care to share who the players are? Because I provided examples of Zion & RJ and your previous statement was completely wrong. You claimed PSA 10 base was selling for more than PSA 9 Silver or PSA 9 Red /299 which isn't the case at all.

[GOATMJ]

People are starting to learn that the only cards that stand the test of time are true GRAIL type cards of GOATS. Even during this correction/crash, cards of GOATS like the Exquisite Limited Logos, Gold Refractor/Prizms, and PMG's are still breaking records and climbing.

[Steve88]

Originally Posted by GOATMJ

People are starting to learn that the only cards that stand the test of time are true GRAIL type cards of GOATS. Even during this correction/crash, cards of GOATS like the Exquisite Limited Logos, Gold Refractor/Prizms, and PMG's are still breaking records and climbing.

Well only the 1% of the hobby can actually participate in that market. 99% are going to be long term losers?

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Steve88

Well only the 1% of the hobby can actually participate in that market. 99% are going to be long term losers?

Not 99%. Another 1% can flip and hustle the garbage to a profit.

98% losers (financially).

If you actually enjoy collecting you never lose.

[FinSoonerGMG]

Originally Posted by pejc300

I've been in the hobby for my whole life. As much as some people in this thread like to say everything is predictable, it's not. I wish Lebron Topps Chrome PSA 10s would "come back down" to $500, like I used to pass on all the time. Thankfully, I have done very, very well in cards as a side hustle/hobby (enough that I could not work for the next several years and be fine).

Having said that, I'll confess I bought into the Kobe hype in February and bought several cards (trying not to make the same mistake I made with Lebron - thinking they'll come back down at some point but never hitting those bottoms again).

I'm down 50% on most of them which cost around, I don' know, maybe 10k total. I'm selling and taking the losses so I can reinvest into other things.

Examples would be Kobe Youthquake Chrome BGS 9. Bought for 3k, auctioning off this week and will probably go for $1200.

2003 Topps Chrome black refractor /500 BGS 9 - paid $2600, just sold for $1700 (after fees).

Lots of other cards like E-x, Topps base, etc.

I have no problems with this. I believe if I hold these cards for the next 5 years they'll go up past what I bought them for, but I'd rather have the money in hand now and reinvest. I should be able to recoup the funds in a few months.

I think everything is cyclical. Right now bass prism is in the dumps. Everyone is saying it was artificial and should never have happened. Guess what...in a few years (no idea when) the narrative will change again and bass prizm will be all the rage again. This happens all the time.

Mark the date and time. There will be a time when Zion bass prizm PSA 10s will be going for a few grand and people will say "remember when you could buy them for $400 and no one wanted them?"

If you have the luxury of holding some stuff, the buying opportunity right now is incredible.

I will FOREVER be grateful to Vegas Dave and Gary V. They changed the trajectory of my entire life. If it was not for them and other influencers, my cards would be worth 100x less than they are now.

Except when those Lebron rcs were a hobby mainstay/ being ripped daily grading wasn't what it was today. Now nearly every card with "investment potential" that anyone including the influencers are mentioning is being graded. Maybe not all by PSA now that they are backlogged but the amount of PSA 10's of a Zion prizm will far out weigh the Lebron/Kobe cards.

Plus I know you mentioned Zion just as an example but personally as a huge sports fan and someone who is not an "investor" and has been in the hobby since the junk wax days I don't think he is a great long term investment. His body and playing style does not historically lend itself to a long career.

[mindcycle]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

If you actually enjoy collecting you never lose.

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

But now that you mention it, Durant has missed a lot of time the last two seasons. What's the point in mentioning scoring efficiency...

Did you not know Durant had achilles surgery and missed all of last season? What do you mean 'now' that I mention it, everybody knew about it except perhaps you. It happened in the NBA Finals.

Curry had season-ending surgery 3 different times early in his career. Guys get hurt, it happens.

[mbuch21]

Originally Posted by FinSoonerGMG

Except when those Lebron rcs were a hobby mainstay/ being ripped daily grading wasn't what it was today. Now nearly every card with "investment potential" that anyone including the influencers are mentioning is being graded. Maybe not all by PSA now that they are backlogged but the amount of PSA 10's of a Zion prizm will far out weigh the Lebron/Kobe cards.

Plus I know you mentioned Zion just as an example but personally as a huge sports fan and someone who is not an "investor" and has been in the hobby since the junk wax days I don't think he is a great long term investment. His body and playing style does not historically lend itself to a long career.

Jordan broke his foot and missed most of his second season... Pretty good come-back for a guy whose game depended on jumping out of the roof. And then hanging up there for like 30 seconds...

[sebreg]

Originally Posted by mbuch21

Jordan broke his foot and missed most of his second season... Pretty good come-back for a guy whose game depended on jumping out of the roof. And then hanging up there for like 30 seconds...

Zion carries a lot more weight than MJ did at that point. Zion is built like a defensive end, while Jordan had more of a wide receiver's body.

[Akphillips86]

Funny how the Zion debate emerges in so many threads. Clearly, by a brief review of my post history, I’m a Zion backer. Therefore take everything I say with a grain of salt, but consider this...

What if the risk of not getting in on some quality Zion cards at current prices far outweighs his risk for injury? Not too many kids out there doing what Zion does at his age.

Feel free to arrive at your own conclusions, but I’ll take my chances on Zion. Doesn’t mean I’m throwing down 10K on him like the big fish, but I’m happy to pick up some great stuff that’s still within reach before people wake up out there. Not everything in ultra modern is dropping by the way. I still can’t really afford a decent on card auto of Zion.


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[gomiamigo]

I would look at the prices of a Zion rookie in PSA 10 non-auto vs, say, the Barkley Fleer psa 10 rookie. The odds while possible, are low, that Zion does as well/better as Barkley's career, which ranks in the top 10-15 using advanced analytics.
Chuck is popular, well-known as a great player, Dream Team, MVP, no rings, but still in the limelight. And Charles' stats are locked-in with zero injury risk.

Just a different POV and ftr, I like Zion a lot and have never sold any of his cards I own.

[Spacemanspif]

anyone arguing the long-term implications of an ultra-modern player like Zion / Ja / Luka / Trae against a HOF completely ignore the fact that:

A) modern players can change expectations and accomplishments, causing their cards to go up, while retired players cannot

B) there are offramps, between here and 10 years from now when Zion has mutated into a B minus version of Zach Randolph. plenty of time to cut down the collection before he's on any sort of downward career trajectory.

anyone "investing" in vintage or older players better hope there's some kind of event like the past year that cause people to rush towards those cards again, otherwise I don't know where your demand spikes come from

[armoursave]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

anyone arguing the long-term implications of an ultra-modern player like Zion / Ja / Luka / Trae against a HOF completely ignore the fact that:

A) modern players can change expectations and accomplishments, causing their cards to go up, while retired players cannot

B) there are offramps, between here and 10 years from now when Zion has mutated into a B minus version of Zach Randolph. plenty of time to cut down the collection before he's on any sort of downward career trajectory.

anyone "investing" in vintage or older players better hope there's some kind of event like the past year that cause people to rush towards those cards again, otherwise I don't know where your demand spikes come from

Isn’t there a C) though?

Active first ballot HOF players who already have multiple rings. These seem like the best “bets” going forward.