2023-24 NBA Playoffs Predictions

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Cleveland LeBron. While he never won a title, he had FAR less than Jokic currently

Mo Williams and Ilgauskas were All-Stars, and yeah they didn't wing a ring. Mo shot 43.6% from 3 his first year in Cleveland too at age 26. This is before everyone was practicing outside shooting as well.

Murray shot 42.5% this season, his age 26 season, and not an all-star.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by daeve

Mo Williams and Ilgauskas were All-Stars, and yeah they didn't wing a ring. Mo shot 43.6% from 3 his first year in Cleveland too at age 26. This is before everyone was practicing outside shooting as well.

Murray shot 42.5% this season, his age 26 season, and not an all-star.

swap out Cleveland Bron with Current Jokic, which player gets you more championships in whichever situation

that's the comparison we're getting up to at this point, right? Cleveland LeBron was an Award Shares hog for sure (and 17 BPM in the 09 'yoffs? Jesus quintana)

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by daeve

Mo Williams and Ilgauskas were All-Stars, and yeah they didn't wing a ring. Mo shot 43.6% from 3 his first year in Cleveland too at age 26. This is before everyone was practicing outside shooting as well.

Murray shot 42.5% this season, his age 26 season, and not an all-star.

the all-star argument is mindnumbing. I'm going to ignore it and talk stats.

Here are the combined regular season VORP numbers each year for each & best teammate

04-05 - 1.5 - Drew Gooden 2.3 - Miss playoffs
05-06 - 3.3 - Zydrunas 2.1 - semis
06-07 - 6.1 - Z / Donyell 1.3 - finals (playoff VORP 1.7 - Daniel Gibson .8)
07-08 - -0.5 - Z 0.9 - semis
08-09 - 9.1 - Mo Williams 3.1 - ecf
09-10 - 7.8 - Mo Williams 2.3 - semis

18-19 - 7.9 - Millsap / Plumlee 1.8 - semis
19-20 - 7 - Murray / Barton 1.5 - wcf
20-21 - 5.3 - MPJ 2.5 - semis
21-22 - 2.5 - Monte Morris 1.1 - first round
22-23 - 4.6 - Aaron Gordon 2.1 - wins finals (playoff VORP 2.5 - Jamal Murray 1.4)
23-24 - 5.1 - Jamal Murray 2.9 - tbd


You can't argue LeBron had better teams. Nobody in their right mind thinks that Mo Williams is even close to the caliber of Jamal Murray. In the earlier years when Z was the best player the rest of the team was hot trash.

Even in the years where Mo Williams was the "#2" his playoff VORP was .3 and .1 respectively. So good in the regular season and horrible in the playoffs. The best player in the Cavs finals run was Boobie Gibson, who besides Cavs fans even remembers him?

You know who was statistically the 2nd best player for the Cavs in the playoffs in 09-10? Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, let that set in. The year before? Delonte West.

There's absolutely no argument you can make to claim Jokic has done more with less. It's flat out wrong

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by daeve

Nobody in the history of the game has done more with less. Yes he needs guys who aren't G-league or back of the bench to win a ring, is that a shocking statement?

MJ is 1-9 without Pippen in the playoffs, I'll keep mentioning that as often as I apparently need to.

Name me someone who did more with less and I'll shutup.

As for the 2nd part of your post, are you making the same argument as I am? Yeah they aren't very good, that's the point. Jokic is the system, he elevates all the other players in Nuggets jerseys.

- The "more with less" is a binary statement. Dirk had a similar supporting cast and beat a better team (I don't care that Kidd or Matrix were All-Stars 4 years before they won). But even then, who cares? I would never put Dirk over Joker based on that.

- Yes, rookie Pippen made a huge difference in MJ winning his first playoff series. Sure.

- The point I'm making is that great players need good rotation players. Braun isn't (at least not yet), Brown is. He has 3 straight playoff runs where he looked as a legit part of a playoff rotation. The Nuggets would be a better team if he was playing instead of Braun/Watson. I feel like you are making the same point but then to turn around and say "he elevates players but he had bad players so he lost in 5" isn't it. He's also taken his game to another level in the postseason, they wouldn't have lost to the Dubs in 5 if he was playing like this.

- Facu barely played that series anyway.

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Cleveland LeBron. While he never won a title, he had FAR less than Jokic currently

- Cleveland LeBron did less with far less than Joker had. It's not close, I can't stand LeBron and Joker is one of my top 3 favorite players but those Cleveland teams were really, really bad.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

tThe best player in the Cavs finals run was Boobie Gibson, who besides Cavs fans even remembers him?

You really think BO won't remember a guy whose nickname was Boobie?

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

the all-star argument is mindnumbing. I'm going to ignore it and talk stats.

Here are the combined regular season VORP numbers each year for each & best teammate

04-05 - 1.5 - Drew Gooden 2.3 - Miss playoffs
05-06 - 3.3 - Zydrunas 2.1 - semis
06-07 - 6.1 - Z / Donyell 1.3 - finals (playoff VORP 1.7 - Daniel Gibson .8)
07-08 - -0.5 - Z 0.9 - semis
08-09 - 9.1 - Mo Williams 3.1 - ecf
09-10 - 7.8 - Mo Williams 2.3 - semis

18-19 - 7.9 - Millsap / Plumlee 1.8 - semis
19-20 - 7 - Murray / Barton 1.5 - wcf
20-21 - 5.3 - MPJ 2.5 - semis
21-22 - 2.5 - Monte Morris 1.1 - first round
22-23 - 4.6 - Aaron Gordon 2.1 - wins finals (playoff VORP 2.5 - Jamal Murray 1.4)
23-24 - 5.1 - Jamal Murray 2.9 - tbd


You can't argue LeBron had better teams. Nobody in their right mind thinks that Mo Williams is even close to the caliber of Jamal Murray. In the earlier years when Z was the best player the rest of the team was hot trash.

Even in the years where Mo Williams was the "#2" his playoff VORP was .3 and .1 respectively. So good in the regular season and horrible in the playoffs. The best player in the Cavs finals run was Boobie Gibson, who besides Cavs fans even remembers him?

You know who was statistically the 2nd best player for the Cavs in the playoffs in 09-10? Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, let that set in. The year before? Delonte West.

There's absolutely no argument you can make to claim Jokic has done more with less. It's flat out wrong

let's reframe it as: who has done more than Jokic has (win a championship/FMVP), but with less than what he has had to work with as teammates. Someone with more than one championship/FMVP, say, whose teammates at the time were less than the combined strengths of MurrayGordonPorterKCP+bench.

Maybe Hakeem in MJ's retirement period? That's the first that popped to mind

Duncan? Manu and Tony Parker and Co. less than Joker's supporting cast? Manu and Tony are top-75 players or close, how about where Murray might end up? I see him making the HOF which might or might not be remarkable for someone who might not make either an all-star or all-nba selection in today's stacked league

I hear Duncan '03 was quite the carry job

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

- Cleveland LeBron did less with far less than Joker had. It's not close, I can't stand LeBron and Joker is one of my top 3 favorite players but those Cleveland teams were really, really bad.

This is a fair point and I think worth saying. LeBron didn’t do more. The results were about the same (not counting if Jokic wins title this year)

Jokic did more, and he had a lot more help. Better players, and better teams.

[jcardstore]

If we’re framing it as having a worse team and winning the finals, without looking probably Dirk, maybe Hakeem

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

This is a fair point and I think worth saying. LeBron didn’t do more. The results were about the same (not counting if Jokic wins title this year)

Jokic did more, and he had a lot more help. Better players, and better teams.

That's the problem with the "more with less" argument.

LeBron did less but had way less. Could he had done the same as Joker if he had that supporting cast? Maybe.

Others had more but also did more (say, Shaq going 15-1, winning FMVP with another MVP that should have been his). Could he had done the same as Joker if he had that supporting cast? Maybe.

It's hard to compare those situations, depends on how you see them, you can rank all those 3 as you like.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If we’re framing it as having a worse team and winning the finals, without looking probably Dirk, maybe Hakeem

Hakeem was so great he got Kenny a lifelong contract as a TV analyst.

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by daeve

Nobody in the history of the game has done more with less. Yes he needs guys who aren't G-league or back of the bench to win a ring, is that a shocking statement?

MJ is 1-9 without Pippen in the playoffs, I'll keep mentioning that as often as I apparently need to.

Name me someone who did more with less and I'll shutup.

As for the 2nd part of your post, are you making the same argument as I am? Yeah they aren't very good, that's the point. Jokic is the system, he elevates all the other players in Nuggets jerseys.

1-9 without Pippen is clearly an argument you are making in bad faith. He's 0-3 in playoff series without Pippen. And those were against a 59 win Bucks team, the '86 Celtics (mentioned amongst greatest teams ever) and the '87 Celtics who lost in the Finals. They weren't meant to win a single game in any of those matchups.

Denver may not have a bench, but Murray is an All-Star, he's just never been selected for things not lining up. Gordon is incredibly good. MPJ is a 6'10 Klay Thompson when he wants to be. KCP is a very legit 3 & D wing. They have a stacked starting lineup......

I don't get the "more with less" argument at all.

[asujbl]

People think Mo Williams was AS good? What a wild thread

He was fine. That’s it

Eyeballs people. I don’t need you to copy and paste Wikipedia

Psychos

[daeve]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

You really think BO won't remember a guy whose nickname was Boobie?

Half my family is from Akron. First game I ever went to was in Cleveland because my aunt had season tickets. I know Boobie.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

the all-star argument is mindnumbing. I'm going to ignore it and talk stats.

Here are the combined regular season VORP numbers each year for each & best teammate

04-05 - 1.5 - Drew Gooden 2.3 - Miss playoffs
05-06 - 3.3 - Zydrunas 2.1 - semis
06-07 - 6.1 - Z / Donyell 1.3 - finals (playoff VORP 1.7 - Daniel Gibson .8)
07-08 - -0.5 - Z 0.9 - semis
08-09 - 9.1 - Mo Williams 3.1 - ecf
09-10 - 7.8 - Mo Williams 2.3 - semis

18-19 - 7.9 - Millsap / Plumlee 1.8 - semis
19-20 - 7 - Murray / Barton 1.5 - wcf
20-21 - 5.3 - MPJ 2.5 - semis
21-22 - 2.5 - Monte Morris 1.1 - first round
22-23 - 4.6 - Aaron Gordon 2.1 - wins finals (playoff VORP 2.5 - Jamal Murray 1.4)
23-24 - 5.1 - Jamal Murray 2.9 - tbd


You can't argue LeBron had better teams. Nobody in their right mind thinks that Mo Williams is even close to the caliber of Jamal Murray. In the earlier years when Z was the best player the rest of the team was hot trash.

Even in the years where Mo Williams was the "#2" his playoff VORP was .3 and .1 respectively. So good in the regular season and horrible in the playoffs. The best player in the Cavs finals run was Boobie Gibson, who besides Cavs fans even remembers him?

You know who was statistically the 2nd best player for the Cavs in the playoffs in 09-10? Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker, let that set in. The year before? Delonte West.

There's absolutely no argument you can make to claim Jokic has done more with less. It's flat out wrong

Is it worse than using VORP? It's a measure of a player vs his peers in a particular year, same as winning in the playoffs is a team measure vs their peers. Since we don't have EPM/LEBRON/RAPTOR historically, it's a better measure to me than some outdated and clearly flawed advanced stats, though of course it's also not perfect as you have the league/refs influence.

And the measure by which Jokic has done more is that he has a ring while Lebron didn't until he got his big-time co-stars. It's really pretty simple. Mo was a minor star, similar to Murray. Sure he didn't rise up to the increased defensive scrutiny like Murray did, most don't. Maybe part of that is on Lebron, or is at least partly due to his style of play vs Joker.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by daeve

Is it worse than using VORP? It's a measure of a player vs his peers in a particular year, same as winning in the playoffs is a team measure vs their peers. Since we don't have EPM/LEBRON/RAPTOR historically, it's a better measure to me than some outdated and clearly flawed advanced stats, though of course it's also not perfect as you have the league/refs influence.

And the measure by which Jokic has done more is that he has a ring while Lebron didn't until he got his big-time co-stars. It's really pretty simple. Mo was a minor star, similar to Murray. Sure he didn't rise up to the increased defensive scrutiny like Murray did, most don't. Maybe part of that is on Lebron, or is at least partly due to his style of play vs Joker.

Murray and Mo aren’t similar. Stop saying that

It makes you look dumb

I’m trying to help you

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by daeve

Is it worse than using VORP? It's a measure of a player vs his peers in a particular year, same as winning in the playoffs is a team measure vs their peers. Since we don't have EPM/LEBRON/RAPTOR historically, it's a better measure to me than some outdated and clearly flawed advanced stats, though of course it's also not perfect as you have the league/refs influence.

And the measure by which Jokic has done more is that he has a ring while Lebron didn't until he got his big-time co-stars. It's really pretty simple. Mo was a minor star, similar to Murray. Sure he didn't rise up to the increased defensive scrutiny like Murray did, most don't. Maybe part of that is on Lebron, or is at least partly due to his style of play vs Joker.

I don't remember Mo being as memorable as Murray, or Gordon. That CLE team must have been in a weak conference or something for Bron to have all-star teammates (how about all-nba as a less conference-dependent data point)

[daeve]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If we’re framing it as having a worse team and winning the finals, without looking probably Dirk, maybe Hakeem

I've already stated clearly why Dirk didn't.

HOFer Kidd [on the decline]

4x All-star Marion [latter part of peak]

Tyson Chandler = best defender in the West and parlayed playoffs run into next year DPOY.

I can see an argument being made but I don't think it's a good one. Kidd had a higher floor than Murray due to his size/rebounding/BBIQ, sure he didn't drop 50-pt games.

Marion or MPJ? Tough to say, one a shooter, one was a fantasy swiss army knife and all-around star player a few years before this Dallas run.

Chandler > Gordon, not much of an argument you could make unless you want to try and galaxy brain it.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Murray and Mo aren’t similar. Stop saying that

It makes you look dumb

I’m trying to help you

guards who are secondary scorers and secondary playmakers to incendiary large star playmakers. Minor stars, Mo has an A-S nod, which means compared to his peers at the time, he was considered a star. Those same peers he had to beat to win.

Murray hasn't had a consistent enough star run vs his set of peers to make an all-star game. But he is a good scorer and does seem to occasionally elevate in the playoffs. How much of this is due to Jokic's effect though?

How many players who look good with Jokic and then leave and turn into pumpkins do we need to see before believing that he elevates them? I can't prove Murray is the same, not yet. I can point to the fact that he's never even been an egregious snub for an all-star game.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by daeve

guards who are secondary scorers and secondary playmakers to incendiary large star playmakers. Minor stars, Mo has an A-S nod, which means compared to his peers at the time, he was considered a star. Those same peers he had to beat to win.

Murray hasn't had a consistent enough star run vs his set of peers to make an all-star game. But he is a good scorer and does seem to occasionally elevate in the playoffs. How much of this is due to Jokic's effect though?

How many players who look good with Jokic and then leave and turn into pumpkins do we need to see before believing that he elevates them? I can't prove Murray is the same, not yet. I can point to the fact that he's never even been an egregious snub for an all-star game.

Eyeballs dude. Eyeballs

You’re embarrassing yourself

[bkcardcollector]

Originally Posted by daeve

And here's the guy who was complaining about his legacy as Denver's #15. lmao and now Brunson has taken his NY legacy, all he's got left is Syracuse.

Jeremy Lin took Melo's NY legacy long ago...

[asujbl]

I’ve got a Mo Williams Ultimate Auto BGS 9.5/10 I’ll sell for peanuts even though was an AS

Anyone?

Rhetorical

[daeve]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

I don't remember Mo being as memorable as Murray, or Gordon. That CLE team must have been in a weak conference or something for Bron to have all-star teammates (how about all-nba as a less conference-dependent data point)

It was a weak conference, which can be seen as a nod to Joker in this argument. Is Cleveland making the Finals from the East even that impressive? I think it is, but I don't think it's the same tier as winning.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Eyeballs dude. Eyeballs

You’re embarrassing yourself

Your eyeballs help you equalize for the difference between the game in 2008 and 2024? Have you considered applying for a job at ESPN?

If All-star nods don't matter and we should only be using our eyeballs, why even bother arguing anything on a message board?

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by daeve

Your eyeballs help you equalize for the difference between the game in 2008 and 2024? Have you considered applying for a job at ESPN?

If All-star nods don't matter and we should only be using our eyeballs, why even bother arguing anything on a message board?

I bet you like the Pro Bowl

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by daeve

Your eyeballs help you equalize for the difference between the game in 2008 and 2024? Have you considered applying for a job at ESPN?

If All-star nods don't matter and we should only be using our eyeballs, why even bother arguing anything on a message board?

I bet you voted for Peyton Hillis to be on the cover of Madden

This is so easy