Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[Fsegaud]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Did everyone here go to Florida State for crying out loud?!?

If it's a fixed number of cards- the more you buy, the greater your odds. If the number is moving with every purchase, even if you buy 100- your odds decease buy every additional purchase not made by you moving forward.

The question was (unless I missed something back on page X)...if *you* buy more, do your chances increase?

Yes...my final answer.

[Bruvydsb]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Did everyone here go to Florida State for crying out loud?!?

If it's a fixed number of cards- the more you buy, the greater your odds. If the number is moving with every purchase, even if you buy 100- your odds decease buy every additional purchase not made by you moving forward.

US News & World Report has Florida State as the 57th college in the country. I assume you went to a higher ranked school, grats!

(My son is a HS junior so I am aware of these rankings, only reason I knew this so quickly).

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

maths

huhh?

[RyanSwinger]

Originally Posted by Silas Barnaby

Divide 1 by 100,000. Those are your odds if you buy one.

Now divide 6 by 100,005. Those are your odds if you then buy 5 more.

Which number is higher?

Bro, that is only assuming you are the only person buying more.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Yes OF COURSE, if you buy more and add to the existing number with your purchase you increase your odds however, this does not account for others doing the same. Under this model everyone else has stopped buying and you are the only one adding to the PR with your 5 additional card purchases.

[BC Hunt]

Originally Posted by Bleu Falcon

ha!

[ExpFacilitators]

Also, please everyone take note of the amazing math here and ask yourself....what is the likelihood that these people are simultaneously on top of cutting edge trading strategies and unsure how to divide x/(10+x)

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

lol how is this wrong?

under your explanation- if you buy 100,000 you move your odds higher however, if everyone buys a 100,000 how are your odds better?

They’re not. I obviously stated the print run being 200,000. If you buy 100,000 and the print run is Elventy Billion, obviously your odds suck.

Did you go to the University of Oregon???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by Fsegaud

The question was (unless I missed something back on page X)...if *you* buy more, do your chances increase?

Yes...my final answer.

absolutely


say you bought 1 and there were 100 purchases total

you have 1 in 100 chance = 1.0%


if you buy one more, you have 2 in 101 chance = 1.9%

[RyanSwinger]

Originally Posted by Bruvydsb

US News & World Report has Florida State as the 57th college in the country. I assume you went to a higher ranked school, grats!

(My son is a HS junior so I am aware of these rankings, only reason I knew this so quickly).

lol as a Florida resident it was just a jab at FSU.

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by ExpFacilitators

Also, please everyone take note of the amazing math here and ask yourself....what is the likelihood that these people are simultaneously on top of cutting edge trading strategies and unsure how to divide x/(10+x)

ahhahah great point

[Fsegaud]

We will have at least 10 pages worth of maths. Epic.

[RyanSwinger]

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

They’re not. I obviously stated the print run being 200,000. If you buy 100,000 and the print run is Elventy Billion, obviously your odds suck.

Did you go to the University of Oregon???


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

QUACK QUACK!

[JRX]

Well we get to do this for every Trout card going forward.

[Bleu Falcon]

Originally Posted by Farmkid

I think this project is great and it has really grown on me.

Predictions

June
-slow opening of economy/activities
-Level Print Runs between 20,000 and 30,000. One or two cards hit 60,000.

July
- Summer Activities
- Topps Series 2 and more products coming out
- Print Runs start to slowly decline 10,000 -30,000. 10 cards fail to reach 10,000.

August - Live Sports Return!
- Stable at 10,000-15,000

September - MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL playing simultaneously.
-Stable at 10,000 but none reach 20,000, not even Trout or Ben Baller

October - NFL
-5000 card print runs become the norm, which spurs a handful of short bursts that reach 15,000.

November
-Level 3000, to 6000 print runs

December - Holidays
- Last push, some of the more exciting cards (about 10 or 15) will break 10,000 barrier, none reach 20,000.

When all is said and done, it will be a great set that future collectors will work on for years to come. Project 2021 will return, with a lot of excitement, but despite better looking cards and equally talented artists, it will not match 2020

Bonus prediction: I finally buy the Trout Ermsey card in 2030 to complete my 400 card set! Final price for the Trout Ermsey card, $2800.

That's as good a take as I could come up with.

My strategy is to buy the cards I love direct from Topps, maybe a handful of a couple I really love. And maybe scoop up a few more low PR cards and hope that we really are at the trough. I think there's a good chance of it.

[BurnerNotify]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Bro, that is only assuming you are the only person buying more.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Yes OF COURSE, if you buy more and add to the existing number with your purchase you increase your odds however, this does not account for others doing the same. Under this model everyone else has stopped buying and you are the only one adding to the PR with your 5 additional card purchases.

Everybody, please read this and if you don't understand, you never will.

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

maths

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Bro, that is only assuming you are the only person buying more.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Yes OF COURSE, if you buy more and add to the existing number with your purchase you increase your odds however, this does not account for others doing the same. Under this model everyone else has stopped buying and you are the only one adding to the PR with your 5 additional card purchases.

The initial incorrect statement was 'The more you buy the lower your odds' or 'buying more lowers your odds'.

Do you believe that statement is actually correct?

[Bruvydsb]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

QUACK QUACK!

Ranked #104

[Farmkid]

Originally Posted by davebo

I like that Topps is trying new things with the autos and hopefully they get more creative as this goes on.

One thing that either Topps or the Artists can do is start offering bounties. Let's say Blake says the first 200 people to each send me two of me 5 of the Trout cards cards back will receive a limited print run poster that he does or something like that. That would take 1000 of these off the market and doesn't cost him anything.

I know 500 of these won't make a dent in the PR really, but I was just using it as an example. I would think this would help the artists too because yes, they get paid by Topps, but I don't know if they really like mass production of their art. Most like limited prints.

OOOHHH, I like that chaos!

[CardFarmer]

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

You’re annoying

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

QUACK QUACK!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JRX]

It seems very clear that every Trout going forward will have huge printruns because of the autos. The 5 cards without autos will be SSP.

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by CardFarmer

Bruh it’s not a good look to delete over half of a post of a quote. Just bold the part you want to highlight.

And who are you?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GeechQuest]

[The Accountant]

Originally Posted by JRX

It seems very clear that every Trout going forward will have huge printruns because of the autos. The 5 cards without autos will be SSP.

ermsy trout is a long-term bargain. whether you think its ugly or not