Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

I could be wrong but this is only accounting for if you are the only buyer.

This doesnt account for thousands of other buyers buying at the same time, simultaneously reducing your odds.

No look at it this way:

If you bought 1 of a card from Topps, the print run is gonna be what it is right? Let’s just say 100k. And since you bought 1 your odds of hitting an auto are 100,000:1- with ten total chances to hit (10,000:1 overall odds)

If you bought 100k of the card, the print run should, theoretically, only be 200k. Your odds of hitting an auto then becomes 200,000:100,000 (or 2:1)- with ten total chances to hit an auto (1:5 overall odds)

If you buy half the print run, you should statistically get half the autos, or 5.

There’s no live update of print run numbers, and your 100k card purchase shouldnt effect others buying since it’s all blind.


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[Farmkid]

Originally Posted by Bleu Falcon

I'd like to see someone put together a forecast model of print runs as a function of time, player, card#, artist.

I think this project is great and it has really grown on me.

Predictions

June
-slow opening of economy/activities
-Level Print Runs between 20,000 and 30,000. One or two cards hit 60,000.

July
- Summer Activities
- Topps Series 2 and more products coming out
- Print Runs start to slowly decline 10,000 -30,000. 10 cards fail to reach 10,000.

August - Live Sports Return!
- Stable at 10,000-15,000

September - MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL playing simultaneously.
-Stable at 10,000 but none reach 20,000, not even Trout or Ben Baller

October - NFL
-5000 card print runs become the norm, which spurs a handful of short bursts that reach 15,000.

November
-Level 3000, to 6000 print runs

December - Holidays
- Last push, some of the more exciting cards (about 10 or 15) will break 10,000 barrier, none reach 20,000.

When all is said and done, it will be a great set that future collectors will work on for years to come. Project 2021 will return, with a lot of excitement, but despite better looking cards and equally talented artists, it will not match 2020

Bonus prediction: I finally buy the Trout Ermsey card in 2030 to complete my 400 card set! Final price for the Trout Ermsey card, $2800.

[UGLI baby]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Topps really out of touch with the project and missing a big opportunity by not having Trout sign the boxes.

Hahaha

[The Accountant]

Okay, legitimate question. Assuming that Topps does a Project 2021 (not looking to argue this just assume for the sake of arugment), would you want them to bring back all of the artists, some of the artists, or bring in all brand new artists?

I think only bringing back some would be spotty.

All would be cool as you could continue to build you Chang, Fucci, Baller, etc. sets.

My vote would be all brand new artists. Give new artists a chance and give us more variety.

Thoughts?

[RyanSwinger]

Did everyone here go to Florida State for crying out loud?!?

If it's a fixed number of cards- the more you buy, the greater your odds. If the number is moving with every purchase, even if you buy 100- your odds decease buy every additional purchase not made by you moving forward.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by Chicharito

wrong math, have to think thru it

I mean I appreciate what youre doing, but I'm just trolling because of all the fun new math in here.

[dodgersinfinity]

In other news, MLB rejects players proposal. Looks like no season folks! More people might jump in.

[TheWrightStuff]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

Okay, legitimate question. Assuming that Topps does a Project 2021 (not looking to argue this just assume for the sake of arugment), would you want them to bring back all of the artists, some of the artists, or bring in all brand new artists?

I think only bringing back some would be spotty.

All would be cool as you could continue to build you Chang, Fucci, Baller, etc. sets.

My vote would be all brand new artists. Give new artists a chance and give us more variety.

Thoughts?

All new artists. They need to pay Banksy whatever he would want to get in on this.

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by The Accountant

My goal by the end of this project is to pull at least one gold frame or trout auto. Not likley but would be pretty sweet. UGLI baby has me craving a 1/1 frame pull now.

I have the same goal. I'm only buying 1 Trout each release though, so my chances ain't that great

[davebo]

I like that Topps is trying new things with the autos and hopefully they get more creative as this goes on.

One thing that either Topps or the Artists can do is start offering bounties. Let's say Blake says the first 200 people to each send me 5 of the Trout cards cards back will receive a limited print run poster that he does or something like that. That would take 1000 of these off the market and doesn't cost him anything.

I know 500 of these won't make a dent in the PR really, but I was just using it as an example. I would think this would help the artists too because yes, they get paid by Topps, but I don't know if they really like mass production of their art. Most like limited prints.

[AlexHunter]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Did everyone here go to Florida State for crying out loud?!?

If it's a fixed number of cards- the more you buy, the greater your odds. If the number is moving with every purchase, even if you buy 100- your odds decease buy every additional purchase not made by you moving forward.

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[JRX]

For every Mike Trout card artists drop moving forward, there will be a total of 10 hand numbered on-card autograph cards randomly inserted into the print run. *The autograph version will replace the base card.

they changed the description

[UGLI baby]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Did everyone here go to Florida State for crying out loud?!?

If it's a fixed number of cards- the more you buy, the greater your odds. If the number is moving with every purchase, even if you buy 100- your odds decease buy every additional purchase not made by you moving forward.

Bro...

[RyanSwinger]

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lol how is this wrong?

under your explanation- if you buy 100,000 you move your odds higher however, if everyone buys a 100,000 how are your odds better?

[ExpFacilitators]

someone add "tricky fractions" to the Stefan meme please.

This is the best part of this thread.

[JRX]

All I was trying to say is that if the print run is huge, the odds of an auto are really low. If the print run was small then the odds still suck but are better.

[BurnerNotify]

Originally Posted by AlexHunter

No look at it this way:

If you bought 1 of a card from Topps, the print run is gonna be what it is right? Let’s just say 100k. And since you bought 1 your odds of hitting an auto are 100,000:1- with ten total chances to hit (10,000:1 overall odds)

If you bought 100k of the card, the print run should, theoretically, only be 200k. Your odds of hitting an auto then becomes 200,000:100,000 (or 2:1)- with ten total chances to hit an auto (1:5 overall odds)

If you buy half the print run, you should statistically get half the autos, or 5.

There’s no live update of print run numbers, and your 100k card purchase shouldnt effect others buying since it’s all blind.


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Unless you are Ugli f'n Baby here's what's gonna happen: you're not going to pull an auto.

Ugli, just kidding...you're one of the good guys. glad you pulled.

[Farmkid]

Originally Posted by davebo

I like that Topps is trying new things with the autos and hopefully they get more creative as this goes on.

One thing that either Topps or the Artists can do is start offering bounties. Let's say Blake says the first 200 people to each send me two of me 5 of the Trout cards cards back will receive a limited print run poster that he does or something like that. That would take 1000 of these off the market and doesn't cost him anything.

I know 500 of these won't make a dent in the PR really, but I was just using it as an example. I would think this would help the artists too because yes, they get paid by Topps, but I don't know if they really like mass production of their art. Most like limited prints.

OOOHHH, I like that chaos!

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

lol how is this wrong?

Divide 1 by 100,000. Those are your odds if you buy one.

Now divide 6 by 100,005. Those are your odds if you then buy 5 more.

Which number is higher?

[BC Hunt]

how can anyone know their odds in advance of knowing the PR?

[Bleu Falcon]

Originally Posted by dodgersinfinity

In other news, MLB rejects players proposal. Looks like no season folks! More people might jump in.

I think there will still be some kind of season. Maybe that's just hoping, but I believe it.

[ExpFacilitators]

Originally Posted by Silas Barnaby

Divide 1 by 100,000. Those are your odds if you buy one.

Now divide 6 by 100,005. Those are your odds if you then buy 5 more.

Which number is higher?

How can we really know though? It's art. And what if I identify as being less likely the more I buy?

[Bleu Falcon]

Originally Posted by BC Hunt

how can anyone know their odds in advance of knowing the PR?

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by RyanSwinger

Did everyone here go to Florida State for crying out loud?!?

If it's a fixed number of cards- the more you buy, the greater your odds. If the number is moving with every purchase, even if you buy 100- your odds decease buy every additional purchase not made by you moving forward.

Hey Hey---I'm an FSU alum...

Save the cracks for Mississippi/Alabama/Louisiana etc

[ThoseBackPages]

maths