Patrick Mahomes Prices

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by Westwave

Crazy how nervous people holding his stuff are when an opposing QB is out they give a big sigh of relief. Yikes.

No doubt. Who are you collecting these days? Let’s see what you’re holding.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by Westwave

Crazy how nervous people holding his stuff are when an opposing QB is out they give a big sigh of relief. Yikes.

Crazy how you keep repeating the same stupid mantra.

[Westwave]

Originally Posted by pejc300

No doubt. Who are you collecting these days? Let’s see what you’re holding.

No one. Cashed out at the height like a smart person. Thanks

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Westwave

No one. Cashed out at the height like a smart person. Thanks

I'm sure you got a great ROI on that Optic base you were holding.

I say that because anybody who really made significant money on Mahomes doesn't try to punch down at people when he's going through a slump.

[jplarson]

I've read about some concerns about Mahomes contract and how it could cripple the team for years to come. Assuming no injuries and relatively consistent play, I don't think it's as terrible as it seems on the surface. Consider this:

NFL Salary Cap (historical and 2022 projected)
2016 $155.3 - increased 8.37% from previous year
2017 $167.0 - increased 7.55%
2018 $177.2 - increased 6.11%
2019 $188.2 - increased 6.21%
2020 $198.2 - increased 5.31%
2021 $182.5 - increased -7.92%
2022 $208.2* - increased 14.08%

*depending on league revenues. source - https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-salary-cap-2022-season/

Tossing out 2021 and making the estimated 2022 cap increase based on 2020, the 2022 cap increase would be $10mm, or a 5.05% increase. Conservatively we can use a 5% salary cap increase every year we look at the Mahomes contract, not factoring in the new TV deal the NFL negotiated* that kicks in 2023.

*source - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/n...mes-on-monday/

Salary Cap projections (assuming a 5% increase each year) vs Mahomes Contract

Year - NFL Cap Projection - Mahomes Contract - % of Cap
2021 - $182,500,000.00 - $24,807,000.00 - 13.6%
2022 - $208,200,000.00 - $31,450,000.00 - 15.1%
2023 - $218,610,000.00 - $42,450,000.00 - 19.4%
2024 - $229,540,500.00 - $39,950,000.00 - 17.4%
2025 - $241,017,525.00 - $41,950,000.00 - 17.4%
2026 - $253,068,401.25 - $41,950,000.00 - 16.6%
2027 - $265,721,821.31 - $59,950,000.00 - 22.6%
2028 - $279,007,912.38 - $44,450,000.00 - 15.9%
2029 - $292,958,308.00 - $44,950,000.00 - 15.3%
2030 - $307,606,223.40 - $50,450,000.00 - 16.4%
2031 - $322,986,534.57 - $52,450,000.00 - 16.2%

Every year he can get a $1.25 mil bonus for reaching the Super Bowl and a $1.25 mil bonus for being the NFL MVP that year. At most add another $2.5mm per year if he hits both incentives. source - https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...n1wrxm7nuz1v56

For the table above, add roughly 0.5% for each performance bonus he makes per year or 1.1% if he makes both bonuses in each year.

It's a lot of money and 2027 is slated to be a painful year (assuming there's no restructure), but I don't think it's roster breaking. Especially using a 5% increase to the salary cap each year. Personally I think the NFL cap will increase even more per year, especially after the TV deal kicks in.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jplarson

I've read about some concerns about Mahomes contract and how it could cripple the team for years to come. Assuming no injuries and relatively consistent play, I don't think it's as terrible as it seems on the surface. Consider this:

NFL Salary Cap (historical and 2022 projected)
2016 $155.3 - increased 8.37% from previous year
2017 $167.0 - increased 7.55%
2018 $177.2 - increased 6.11%
2019 $188.2 - increased 6.21%
2020 $198.2 - increased 5.31%
2021 $182.5 - increased -7.92%
2022 $208.2* - increased 14.08%

*depending on league revenues. source - https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-salary-cap-2022-season/

Tossing out 2021 and making the estimated 2022 cap increase based on 2020, the 2022 cap increase would be $10mm, or a 5.05% increase. Conservatively we can use a 5% salary cap increase every year we look at the Mahomes contract, not factoring in the new TV deal the NFL negotiated* that kicks in 2023.

*source - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/n...mes-on-monday/

Salary Cap projections (assuming a 5% increase each year) vs Mahomes Contract

Year - NFL Cap Projection - Mahomes Contract - % of Cap
2021 - $182,500,000.00 - $24,807,000.00 - 13.6%
2022 - $208,200,000.00 - $31,450,000.00 - 15.1%
2023 - $218,610,000.00 - $42,450,000.00 - 19.4%
2024 - $229,540,500.00 - $39,950,000.00 - 17.4%
2025 - $241,017,525.00 - $41,950,000.00 - 17.4%
2026 - $253,068,401.25 - $41,950,000.00 - 16.6%
2027 - $265,721,821.31 - $59,950,000.00 - 22.6%
2028 - $279,007,912.38 - $44,450,000.00 - 15.9%
2029 - $292,958,308.00 - $44,950,000.00 - 15.3%
2030 - $307,606,223.40 - $50,450,000.00 - 16.4%
2031 - $322,986,534.57 - $52,450,000.00 - 16.2%

Every year he can get a $1.25 mil bonus for reaching the Super Bowl and a $1.25 mil bonus for being the NFL MVP that year. At most add another $2.5mm per year if he hits both incentives. source - https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...n1wrxm7nuz1v56

For the table above, add roughly 0.5% for each performance bonus he makes per year or 1.1% if he makes both bonuses in each year.

It's a lot of money and 2027 is slated to be a painful year (assuming there's no restructure), but I don't think it's roster breaking. Especially using a 5% increase to the salary cap each year. Personally I think the NFL cap will increase even more per year, especially after the TV deal kicks in.

Yep.. I did this analysis a while back....It's not as crippling as some would have you believe.

And as for 2027 when it hits it's peak... I imagine that's the point where they'll extend his deal and bring that cap hit down.

[Hellcat]

To have a prayer at Bradys success you need a star quarterback to take well below league comps to bring in better players. Patty isn’t following the blueprint.

[gottagitdemjs]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Yep.. I did this analysis a while back....It's not as crippling as some would have you believe.

And as for 2027 when it hits it's peak... I imagine that's the point where they'll extend his deal and bring that cap hit down.

I've been telling anyone who will listen that the deal was a win-win for both sides. Mahomes and his agents got to show off the huge headline "HALF A BILLION DOLLARS!", and the Chiefs got a team friendly deal that can be easily manipulated to help the cap each year and all parties involved know that it won't be seen to completion. It will get restructured later in the deal like all big deals do.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by hellcat

to have a prayer at bradys success you need a star quarterback to take well below league comps to bring in better players. Patty isn’t following the blueprint.

Stop bringing those two up together!!!

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by Westwave

No one. Cashed out at the height like a smart person. Thanks

Open up your books. Send us the spreadsheet, would love to see how your portfolio did. I'd like to learn a thing or two from you. What's your IG?

[Westwave]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'm sure you got a great ROI on that Optic base you were holding.

I say that because anybody who really made significant money on Mahomes doesn't try to punch down at people when he's going through a slump.

Originally Posted by pejc300

Open up your books. Send us the spreadsheet, would love to see how your portfolio did. I'd like to learn a thing or two from you. What's your IG?

LOLOLOLOLOLOL you guys and gals crack me up. Here's hoping Patty McVick has a great weekend. I know many of you need it to happen.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Westwave

LOLOLOLOLOLOL you guys and gals crack me up. Here's hoping Patty McVick has a great weekend. I know many of you need it to happen.

Yep... That's the answer I expected.

Very transparent.

[Onepocketj]

You guys really need to just block him. Just a pathetic troll that missed out and is miserable.

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by jplarson

I've read about some concerns about Mahomes contract and how it could cripple the team for years to come. Assuming no injuries and relatively consistent play, I don't think it's as terrible as it seems on the surface. Consider this:

NFL Salary Cap (historical and 2022 projected)
2016 $155.3 - increased 8.37% from previous year
2017 $167.0 - increased 7.55%
2018 $177.2 - increased 6.11%
2019 $188.2 - increased 6.21%
2020 $198.2 - increased 5.31%
2021 $182.5 - increased -7.92%
2022 $208.2* - increased 14.08%

*depending on league revenues. source - https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-salary-cap-2022-season/

Tossing out 2021 and making the estimated 2022 cap increase based on 2020, the 2022 cap increase would be $10mm, or a 5.05% increase. Conservatively we can use a 5% salary cap increase every year we look at the Mahomes contract, not factoring in the new TV deal the NFL negotiated* that kicks in 2023.

*source - https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/n...mes-on-monday/

Salary Cap projections (assuming a 5% increase each year) vs Mahomes Contract

Year - NFL Cap Projection - Mahomes Contract - % of Cap
2021 - $182,500,000.00 - $24,807,000.00 - 13.6%
2022 - $208,200,000.00 - $31,450,000.00 - 15.1%
2023 - $218,610,000.00 - $42,450,000.00 - 19.4%
2024 - $229,540,500.00 - $39,950,000.00 - 17.4%
2025 - $241,017,525.00 - $41,950,000.00 - 17.4%
2026 - $253,068,401.25 - $41,950,000.00 - 16.6%
2027 - $265,721,821.31 - $59,950,000.00 - 22.6%
2028 - $279,007,912.38 - $44,450,000.00 - 15.9%
2029 - $292,958,308.00 - $44,950,000.00 - 15.3%
2030 - $307,606,223.40 - $50,450,000.00 - 16.4%
2031 - $322,986,534.57 - $52,450,000.00 - 16.2%

Every year he can get a $1.25 mil bonus for reaching the Super Bowl and a $1.25 mil bonus for being the NFL MVP that year. At most add another $2.5mm per year if he hits both incentives. source - https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...n1wrxm7nuz1v56

For the table above, add roughly 0.5% for each performance bonus he makes per year or 1.1% if he makes both bonuses in each year.

It's a lot of money and 2027 is slated to be a painful year (assuming there's no restructure), but I don't think it's roster breaking. Especially using a 5% increase to the salary cap each year. Personally I think the NFL cap will increase even more per year, especially after the TV deal kicks in.

Thanks for the reconnaissance...very insightful. Anyone have any idea what the average QB compensation is as a percentage of cap? QBs on their rookie deals should probably be excluded from this calculation, as it distorts the analysis

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by weeds73

Thanks for the reconnaissance...very insightful. Anyone have any idea what the average QB compensation is as a percentage of cap? QBs on their rookie deals should probably be excluded from this calculation, as it distorts the analysis

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/quarterback/

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

You guys really need to just block him. Just a pathetic troll that missed out and is miserable.

I just don't understand why people feel compelled to acknowledge this guy. He clearly brings nothing of substance to the table. However, I appreciate the other "non-mahomes fans" that pop in from time to time and offer their alternative points of view. Keeps me grounded and allows me to make more informed decisions on my cardboard purchases. Debate is healthy...Wouldn't be as fun on this forum if everyone had the same opinion/perspectives

[Fratboy]

there's been some mad Patty #@#@#@#@ talking in here lately...

never thought it could get to this level, after his first few years in the league

I'm neither for or against Patty criticism. Every other player has to take it...

[Westwave]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

You guys really need to just block him. Just a pathetic troll that missed out and is miserable.

For someone that has me blocked or muted you sure comment on a lot of my posts. Didn't miss out but thanks for trying though. A for effort.

[Mikeh6480]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

To have a prayer at Bradys success you need a star quarterback to take well below league comps to bring in better players. Patty isn’t following the blueprint.

Some help from the NFL doesn’t hurt either

[Aquagolf70]

This is one of the few sales that don’t show winning bud. What did it go for, and can anyone confirm that golds, gold vinyls, and black finites were not in any FOTL hobby boxes?

https://goldinauctions.com/mobile/ca...sep_cards_memo

[growdoe]

I focus on numbered 2018-2020 Mahomes cards. 2017 cards are too rich for me, but I do want some - many of them.

Mahomes will be fine. His fast start was special and will always be a thing for the rest of my time - 40yrs I hope. I was uncomfortable hearing all the 20-0 talk. It was a stretch goal after a SB win. Where do you go from already being on top? But this slump is a good reminder of just how special Mahomes has been and its very likely not always going to be like that. I believe the recent slump make Mahomes cards issued between 2017-2020, the "Great Mahomes Years", so far at least, feel a bit more scarce knowing it may not ever be like it was.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by gottagitdemjs

I've been telling anyone who will listen that the deal was a win-win for both sides. Mahomes and his agents got to show off the huge headline "HALF A BILLION DOLLARS!", and the Chiefs got a team friendly deal that can be easily manipulated to help the cap each year and all parties involved know that it won't be seen to completion. It will get restructured later in the deal like all big deals do.

YES 100%.


the deal will get re-structured, probably more than once.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by growdoe

I focus on numbered 2018-2020 Mahomes cards. 2017 cards are too rich for me, but I do want some - many of them.

Mahomes will be fine. His fast start was special and will always be a thing for the rest of my time - 40yrs I hope. I was uncomfortable hearing all the 20-0 talk. It was a stretch goal after a SB win. Where do you go from already being on top? But this slump is a good reminder of just how special Mahomes has been and its very likely not always going to be like that. I believe the recent slump make Mahomes cards issued between 2017-2020, the "Great Mahomes Years", so far at least, feel a bit more scarce knowing it may not ever be like it was.

I encourage you to save up a little longer and get a nice 2017 Patty. You won't regret it.


on 2020 products, the presses were cranked up.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Do the Chiefs not have draft picks during this time? It's not like when Kelce and Hill leave then they just have no WR or TE anymore. Obviously the Chiefs will have to shift the focus to find young (cheap) talented playmakers over the next few years.

they will have draft picks. the problem is, not all of those picks will be a hit. all high picks they use on offense are picks they are not using for both Defense and OL which both need help.

that contract will end up being an albatross.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

they will have draft picks. the problem is, not all of those picks will be a hit. all high picks they use on offense are picks they are not using for both Defense and OL which both need help.

that contract will end up being an albatross.

Let's look at their Oline:

They won't be drafting a Center for a long, long time. Humphrey is rated out as the best rookie center in 15 year through week 8.

Won't need a Guard either. Thuney is under contract for a while, and Trey Smith looks to be the guy at guard.

Orlando Brown is a question mark long term. They'll decide if they want to sign him or not. Niang a question mark as well, but again, first year playing in the NFL.

Regardless, more than help on the offensive line, it seems to me like they just need time for these guys to continue to develop. Nobody else is playing 3 rookies on the Oline, and if these guys develop together, it could end up being special in a few years.