What’s it going to take to revitalize the NBA card hobby?

[Nomad]

Actually though, like many collectors, my dream is to totally degen a 20-21 Imacc box battle.

And let's face it, it's that kind of spirit that partly keeps the dream alive. I mean any collector can attain that. They just need to invest in the right player and HODL through the thin.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by codered

Disagree wholeheartedly…….

It’s not basic and simple because the whole entire model of how product is being opened has changed dramatically in the last decade.

10 years ago, breakers may have accounted for 10% (maybe 20% if I’m being generous) of all products being opened. Collectors dictated market value of boxes. If a product was great the increase would happen gradually as more of the product was being broken and harder to find. Lesser products that sat of the shelves and would drop until the market decided would a suitable value was for said product.

Today products don’t sit. Breakers are probably buying up 80% (maybe higher) of hobby cases/boxes. Breakers push up the prices even before products are released because they need the inventory. They don’t make money without having inventory to break. They pass the added cost to people joining breaks who either A) have no other choice but to join breaks as boxes are too expensive/poor value/poor return, B) people who have joined the hobby since 2020 and don’t know better or C) degenerate gamblers that use this as an avenue to feed their addiction.

There aren’t a bunch of people willing to pay $500+ for a box of prizm in the traditional sense rather people buy to resell as breaks

If breakers were cut out of the chain you would see much much different prices. They may not be as low as they were 10 years ago but much closer to those prices than you think

People are willing to pay $500 for hobby boxes, does not matter if it’s via breakers, it’s the same thing.. if the product quality increases there will be more demand to rip that product (breakers increasing the prices and buying more as everything sells out). All together the breakers argument is not valid as what difference does it makes, demand is demand and it results higher prices for the product. If the manufacturer is not taking that profit than the flippers will.

[KhalDrogo]

The breaker shift has destroyed EV, which is now only propped up by the lottery tickets Fanatics will continue to dole out. This will continue because the math doesn’t matter to gamblers, and there are few who can do the math anyway.

Hobby wax now a casino floor where 9 of the 10 craps tables are people betting boxcars every roll, and that 10th table is a bunch of guys betting the pass line because they love craps.

[chiefroc]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The 2024-25 basketball card release season is already dead and we just got started. The hoops card hobby is as down as it has ever been. What needs to happen to recharge the excitement and make the basketball card hobby great again?

Taking the very first question.

Hobby Boxes for affordable Prizes to get the Hobby back to the masses. They lost reputation in focusing in breakers and influencers opening wax. Every Rookie Class is hyped as fxxx. This is not what a hobby is all about.
I know a lot of things changed, but there is no fire anymore. Giving Fanatics the chance to enter the NBA stage is a good start.
Panini did partly a good job, but really, releasing of products of a season when the new season is almost over??
Back in the days, we had a first glimp at Hoops at the end of the playoffs....

And to give any company an exclusives contract to do cards is/was the end of the hobby we all have known.

ripping NBA boxes is no fun anymore. Even with Superstars you maybe get 50% Roi only, this is not what it used to be.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The breaker shift has destroyed EV, which is now only propped up by the lottery tickets Fanatics will continue to dole out. This will continue because the math doesn’t matter to gamblers, and there are few who can do the math anyway.

Hobby wax now a casino floor where 9 of the 10 craps tables are people betting boxcars every roll, and that 10th table is a bunch of guys betting the pass line because they love craps.

Unfortunately that’s how it is.. one thing I don’t understand is how long these gamblers can keep going, they must feel that they are throwing their money down the toilet at some point.. can’t keep going like that forever, right?

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by Torro

Unfortunately that’s how it is.. one thing I don’t understand is how long these gamblers can keep going, they must feel that they are throwing their money down the toilet at some point.. can’t keep going like that forever, right?

How long have casinos been around??? It can keep going indefinitely.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by dantheman514

How long have casinos been around??? It can keep going indefinitely.

Yes, but it will stay niche because it's inefficient for breakers and a financially wasteful form of gambling for consumers. There is no 10xing the hobby through group breaking -- there is only price gouging.

[JRX]

Its simple, all you need is

1. Get rid of the 3pt line
2. Allow defense to be played
3. Get players to care about regular season again
4. Uninvent smartphones, streaming, and cable so we're back to just a few channels and there's nothing else to watch.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by JRX

Its simple, all you need is

1. Get rid of the 3pt line
2. Allow defense to be played
3. Get players to care about regular season again
4. Uninvent smartphones, streaming, and cable so we're back to just a few channels and there's nothing else to watch.

You forgot about shorter basketball shorts and knee high socks!

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by JRX

Its simple, all you need is

1. Get rid of the 3pt line
2. Allow defense to be played
3. Get players to care about regular season again
4. Uninvent smartphones, streaming, and cable so we're back to just a few channels and there's nothing else to watch.

It really is that simple. No need to overthink it. No need for 10 pages of forum commentary. You nailed it. If they build the sport back better and make it great again the hoops hobby will be hot again.

Now get off my lawn so I can get back to yelling at the clouds.

[Fulmer4MVP]

Originally Posted by Chris P

I can't stand people who mock what others collect. This place is supposed to a place we can show off our collections. It's a big turnoff if some jerk comes in and belittles and mocks what other people like to collect

Slyguy is always mocking people. He came into a guys KC chiefs post and slammed him for not having any Mahomes, yet he complains that there arent any collectors. Nothing but a troll.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

It really is that simple. No need to overthink it. No need for 10 pages of forum commentary. You nailed it. If they build the sport back better and make it great again the hoops hobby will be hot again.

Now get off my lawn so I can get back to yelling at the clouds.

I see that it actually adds oil to the fire, if the NBA becomes significantly more popular what are we expecting to happen to the hobby?

More gamblers, more breakers, more flippers, more expensive product, more parallels and production. How is that fixing anything, or what exactly are we looking to fix here lol

[Akphillips86]

Not exactly a Nostradamus prediction, but as people get burnt out on the proliferation of meaningless parallels and failed prospecting attempts, I see 90’s inserts only continuing to build steam.


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[drobfan8]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Not exactly a Nostradamus prediction, but as people get burnt out on the proliferation of meaningless parallels and failed prospecting attempts, I see 90’s inserts only continuing to build steam.


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That is also the most passionate Basketball Hobby fanbase so it makes sense.

Vintage also of course.

But 90s stuff is very collectable and people aren't just trying to flip

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Not exactly a Nostradamus prediction, but as people get burnt out on the proliferation of meaningless parallels and failed prospecting attempts, I see 90’s inserts only continuing to build steam.

Originally Posted by drobfan8

That is also the most passionate Basketball Hobby fanbase so it makes sense.

Vintage also of course.

But 90s stuff is very collectable and people aren't just trying to flip

Correct and correct. And you’ve seen over the last 6-12 months that a lot of mid-grade cards in mid-tier sets are moving significantly higher. Despite that, there’s still a lot of affordable options out there. I’m wrapping up the 1996 Scoring Kings set, and you can pick up almost anybody outside of MJ and Shaq for $10-30 in NM+ raw condition.

[phdbeckett]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Correct and correct. And you’ve seen over the last 6-12 months that a lot of mid-grade cards in mid-tier sets are moving significantly higher. Despite that, there’s still a lot of affordable options out there. I’m wrapping up the 1996 Scoring Kings set, and you can pick up almost anybody outside of MJ and Shaq for $10-30 in NM+ raw condition.

I agree. I am not the first in nor am I the last, in but I've started PC Shaq 90s as well because he's in almost every insert set as Jordan, is a winner, and is relevant in 2025. You can't turn on a TV without seeing Shaq so even kids who never saw him play know who he is. I think relevance has a lot to do with any resurgence or longevity. I look at Peyton Manning the same way.

[phdbeckett]

I read a book last year called Day Trading Attention by Gary V., and though I am paraphrasing but in terms of being relatable or relevant to people that is key.

Because relevance leads to consideration, and consideration leads to sales.

[hermanotarjeta]

If fanatics used retro designs of 90’s inserts, could that possibly revitalize the current basketball card hobby?

Or is the main problem marketing of today’s players?

I was told the current players are taller, faster, stronger and more skilled then the guys of the 90’s.

[Nomad]

So less relatable.

Some teams seem to have kind of automon personalities on the court. It's like watching an action flick where the main fight sequence goes on 15 minutes too long.

[hermanotarjeta]

Is it possible that the monster nba contacts is what killed the NBA, ironically?

Has it become a rich man’s sport, something the working class cannot relate to?

It has certainly transformed into a rich man’s hobby over the last decade.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by phdbeckett

I agree. I am not the first in nor am I the last, in but I've started PC Shaq 90s as well because he's in almost every insert set as Jordan, is a winner, and is relevant in 2025. You can't turn on a TV without seeing Shaq so even kids who never saw him play know who he is. I think relevance has a lot to do with any resurgence or longevity. I look at Peyton Manning the same way.

Shaq is an excellent pick, it’s crazy how affordable you can pick up some iconic inserts of him in decent shape. Manning seems to be a sneaky good play with some of his stuff (as well as Moss), but Football is odd in regard to where money flows and I don’t pretend to understand that market well.


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[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Correct and correct. And you’ve seen over the last 6-12 months that a lot of mid-grade cards in mid-tier sets are moving significantly higher. Despite that, there’s still a lot of affordable options out there. I’m wrapping up the 1996 Scoring Kings set, and you can pick up almost anybody outside of MJ and Shaq for $10-30 in NM+ raw condition.

You’re dead on with the mid-grade mid-tier level inserts.

Tons of room for growth there. I’m looking at some awesome PSA 8 and 9 stuff in sets where gems are virtually impossible and there’s still good buys to be had everywhere but it’s definitely trending north.


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[boxbuster7]

I wouldn't say theres a team in the east that could really do much

Pretty much banking on Warriors, Lakers, Timberwolves to win the finals

otherwise nobody is going to really care

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I wouldn't say theres a team in the east that could really do much

Pretty much banking on Warriors, Lakers, Timberwolves to win the finals

otherwise nobody is going to really care

Wouldn’t underestimate SGA and the Thunder. If they keep dominating the way they have been, people will care and the league will be pushing SGA in a big way.

Luka is immensely talented and definitely the favorite to take the hobby reins/face of the league, but he has to start racking up some hardware in order to do that. Baseball is pretty much the only sport where you can dominate the headlines and be the face of the game without your team winning it all. It’s a nice cherry on top, but not required.


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[boxbuster7]

the reason I didn't mention the thunder is because they're more of an ensemble in a small market.

Like if they win the finals and shai wins mvp I feel like people will move onto nfl pretty quickly