First Buzz: 2022 Bowman Draft baseball cards

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

Still somewhat high IMO. I think we could split the difference and $100/auto is probably a decent baseline especially in this market.

$350 seems high when all you want is to collect and/or you just care about the autos/refractors.

But you can “easily” get $350 value per box on a case basis, if you sell all base, inserts, refractors, etc. Easily is in quotations, because it is a lot of work to maximize.

[The Accountant]

Nopeeeee

[slogue2]

Don't worry, all. Fanatics is offering up Super Jumbos for the rock bottom price of $699.99!

[ndwatso]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

$450 for a box of junk just 4 days before Christmas

This product HAS to sit for a while on the site, right?

Who in their right mind is paying these prices?

Breakers

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by erock28

Agreed to both points. Unfortunately I think the gambler mentality of "I'm gonna be one of the lucky ones" would make people skip this very helpful breakdown and dive in anyways at prices that blow away expected value.

I do this for things on Twitter for fun sometimes and there's always the "oh yeah?!? Look at this super!"

So yeah - if you get the super - by odds it wouldn't be a shock if there is 1 in that 100 caser (though 0 would also be a good bet) - you are pretty happy and my dumb math doesn't mean anything.

[hermanotarjeta]

If you need the product NOW then pay the breaker rate.

It’s as simple as that.

[cj828282]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

If you need the product NOW then pay the breaker rate.

It’s as simple as that.

Or go to the LCS and pay 10-20% above BO prices.

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

by odds it wouldn't be a shock if there is 1 in that 100 caser (though 0 would also be a good bet)

Yep... 100 cases @ 96 packs per case, but probably a few extra cases so let's just round to 100x100 = 10,000 packs.

Chrome non-auto super is 1:~6,500, chrome auto super is 1:12,152. So the 'expected' super count would be (not including inserts etc.) about 1.5 non-auto and 0.8 auto.

[theshowandme]

269 players are forever immortalized in Cooperstown. Maybe 10-20% are hobby relevant.

Happy Bowman Draft day

[erock28]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I do this for things on Twitter for fun sometimes and there's always the "oh yeah?!? Look at this super!"

So yeah - if you get the super - by odds it wouldn't be a shock if there is 1 in that 100 caser (though 0 would also be a good bet) - you are pretty happy and my dumb math doesn't mean anything.

A LOT of people don't really care about or understand the math. Honestly even something that is so basic as Expected Value can draw blank stares. For funsies I may take the actual odds and color multipliers we regard here as accurate to see how close your 2.3 figure is. Not that I'm challenging you as it passes the smell test...but I'm a math nerd and damn proud of it!

[mwash1983]

Gavin cross is a redemption so half of the big names are redemptions, joke.

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by mwash1983

Gavin cross is a redemption so half of the big names are redemptions, joke.

Just checked eBay completed sales and at least the Holliday and Elijah Green autos are live. Good enough for me to keep my case sealed.

[jdhaugh11]

My LCS was $550 plus tax for regular jumbo, I am not sure I can buy any more boxes with his current rates.
I am ok paying $10-20 more a box for stuff, but when you are talking $100 or more and then add tax to that, it is just way too much to help a local business. Not to mention many products are already too high IMO.

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by ndwatso

Breakers

No breakers are paying those prices…

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by jdhaugh11

My LCS was $550 plus tax for regular jumbo, I am not sure I can buy any more boxes with his current rates.
I am ok paying $10-20 more a box for stuff, but when you are talking $100 or more and then add tax to that, it is just way too much to help a local business. Not to mention many products are already too high IMO.

Same here. I’ll always spend a little more to support the local little guy. But if you’re significantly higher I’ll just pass.

[Stein316]

Anyone else 5 autos in the Jumbo, which the box says only 3?

Wondering if they made this (consumer-positive) mistake a trend.

[NCWolf]

I'm so disappointed. This is my favorite product of the year but can no longer afford it.

Oh well. More important things to be grateful for this time of year folks! Merry Christmas!

[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

Originally Posted by NCWolf

I'm so disappointed. This is my favorite product of the year but can no longer afford it.

Oh well. More important things to be grateful for this time of year folks! Merry Christmas!

Even if people can afford it, they must not like money. Hobby is a joke.

[The Accountant]

Can't stomach the price this year in a tanking economy. Unfortunate, but I don't hate it either. Draft is a premier product that everyone wants to buy. At least its not being botted.

[jdhaugh11]

What was direct cost for Jumbo and Super Jumbo?

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

Wasn't Holliday like 30k across the 100 cases?

As for valuation...

I haven't done the math, but let's say that there are going to be 15,000 cases and there are 100 super autos. The 100 case break is .67% of that PR... so a 1/150 shot at the Holliday Super Auto. Right in your range.

Gives us a valuation on the bounty of $1300.

You are probably looking at an estimate of lets say 20 autos if all are equal (and they've had a legit pattern of NOT giving you equal volume of some top guys). I think that's probably the biggest assumption here... and if they are SP'd, everything below is out the window.

Of that we'll pretend half are base, half are something else (reasonably consistent with pack odds of last few releases).

And we'll use a color multiplier of 2.3 (that is, each "auto" is worth 2.3x what you think a base is worth assuming some value multipliers for each parallel and their relative odds to hit) - obvious an over estimate for the "base" you hit, but that is made up for in the average color chance.

So that's 46x base auto price of "value" in autos. If you think that's a $300 base auto, that's ~$14k EV of autos. If it's a $200 base auto? $9k. $500? $23k.

I think it would be about even odds to hit a "gold or better" in the break. You hit more than 1? Things look better. You hit less than 1? Not ideal. 0-3 all seem like they would be "non outlier" outcomes looking at the expected ~100+ gold or better prospect autos.

So if we take the bounty plus a 14k EV for autos (raw)... you get to about 50% of the spot price. And that's actually probably not too bad relative to other spots if you extrapolate that out. Leaves you some room to make up... but with grading (potentially) and a little luck it's possible.

To me the bounty at 10% of that valuation for 100 cases is interesting but probably wouldn't change my decision making on any of them.

Thanks for this and roughly what I was at. Maybee I read it wrong but I thought he was lioe 7k per 50 so 14 caSe total, but the cheapest 9 other spots get 25% off as he’s still unclaimed and in for roughly 11k. If it was 30 then obv terrible but 11k May gamble

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Thanks for this and roughly what I was at. Maybee I read it wrong but I thought he was lioe 7k per 50 so 14 caSe total, but the cheapest 9 other spots get 25% off as he’s still unclaimed and in for roughly 11k. If it was 30 then obv terrible but 11k May gamble

Yes - you read it wrong. That's the non-auto spot.

[oldgoldy97]

One super jumbo pack netted me a Jackson Holiday auto

[Buzz]

1 Jumbo w 3 autos - $450ish
or
4 Lite boxes w 20 Ray waves - $450ish???????

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Buzz

1 Jumbo w 3 autos - $450ish
or
4 Lite boxes w 20 Ray waves - $450ish???????

lite boxes were solid last year