First Buzz: 2020 Topps Series 1 baseball cards

[BlowoutBuzz]

Originally Posted by jeff24k

Buzz - know if this will be open to the Public?

I have no other details beyond what's in there -- just added some info.

I'd expect there to be some access but not 100 percent sure how it will work -- not a ton of details yet. I figure they decided on Dallas since the cards are printed in that area.

[Archimedes]

The #1 reason I think Series 1 will be good is because it’s been such a dud lately. If it becomes a perennial dud, who’s going to buy it? I think Topps is incentivized to ensure that buyers don’t start writing off this release.

I’ll put my $ where my mouth is. In for a case each of hobby and jumbo.


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[phil]

Originally Posted by Tim

1.) Flagship's resurgence
2.) First time series 1 will have this good of a checklist of rookies
3.) Product will be broken at a feverish pace
4.) The new normal with distributors

5.) maybe less of a factor but having Silver Packs in the boxes for the first time will make it less likely to be dumped and create a higher floor.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by Tim

There was also no precedent for Update and Series 2 until there was. I have a feeling series 1 will be different for these reasons:

1.) Flagship's resurgence
2.) First time series 1 will have this good of a checklist of rookies
3.) Product will be broken at a feverish pace
4.) The new normal with distributors

Now I could be wrong but if this checklist is loaded as a lot of us think it will be, i think holding it sealed will pay dividends and certainly more so than in previous years.

Agree with all of this except I'd edit #2 to say
First time series 1 will have this good of a checklist of rookies Since the flagship explosion in popularity. As mentioned many times 2018 s1 had a very strong RC class too but that was before we started seeing flagship golds go bonkers.

and like phil said above too- having the silver packs inside the boxes doesn't hurt

[Wil]

When is the best time to buy a case? Presale or wait a month for something else to be the hot new thing?

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Wil

When is the best time to buy a case? Presale or wait a month for something else to be the hot new thing?

Prices are up now since it is closer to release. So it depends on what your goal is.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Agree with all of this except I'd edit #2 to say
First time series 1 will have this good of a checklist of rookies Since the flagship explosion in popularity. As mentioned many times 2018 s1 had a very strong RC class too but that was before we started seeing flagship golds go bonkers.

and like phil said above too- having the silver packs inside the boxes doesn't hurt

Only problem is that we’re going to see 18-24 golds per hobby case. And maybe 10-20 per jumbo. That’s not really enough to make it a great deal.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by Stech36

Only problem is that we’re going to see 18-24 golds per hobby case. And maybe 10-20 per jumbo. That’s not really enough to make it a great deal.

Great point but perception equals reality and when Bichette and Lux get $40+ outta the gate and with "distributors" slowly ramping up prices until release I think it will still be strong from an unopened standpoint.
I think a lot of the people buying these won't necessarily know(or care?) that they are tougher now as the increased singles sale value compared to pre-18 update flagship releases will be plenty to prop it up.
Could be wrong but it feels strong, even with Another production increase. Throw in Another new parallel(jumbo only gold foil?)and all is well

Great deal to open? Probably only at December's pre-sale price. But close enough for people to hoard and "distributors" to closer control price floor- yeah

[cj828282]

Series 1 silver pack RC checklist was not that great last year. This year it should be much improved. Hopefully the key rookies get in with Yordan, Aquino, Lux and Bichette. Hopefully Topps keeps the key vets and HOFs in the S1 checklist with Trout, Jeter, Ripken, etc.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

The #1 reason I think Series 1 will be good is because it’s been such a dud lately. If it becomes a perennial dud, who’s going to buy it? I think Topps is incentivized to ensure that buyers don’t start writing off this release.

I’ll put my $ where my mouth is. In for a case each of hobby and jumbo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by LVDan

Agree with all of this except I'd edit #2 to say
First time series 1 will have this good of a checklist of rookies Since the flagship explosion in popularity. As mentioned many times 2018 s1 had a very strong RC class too but that was before we started seeing flagship golds go bonkers.

and like phil said above too- having the silver packs inside the boxes doesn't hurt

2017 wasn't so bad either with Benintendi, Moncada, and Swanson. Really the only dud in the last few years was 2019. Recency bias strikes again.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

2017 wasn't so bad either with Benintendi, Moncada, and Swanson. Really the only dud in the last few years was 2019. Recency bias strikes again.

Take a look at the current prices for series one rookies from the last 10 years and just about every year was a dud.

[cj828282]

Jumbo cases now listed for more than hobby cases.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by towerymt

$629.95

"only 4 left"

$674.95

"Only 5 left"

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Tim

There was also no precedent for Update and Series 2 until there was. I have a feeling series 1 will be different for these reasons:

1.) Flagship's resurgence
2.) First time series 1 will have this good of a checklist of rookies
3.) Product will be broken at a feverish pace
4.) The new normal with distributors

Now I could be wrong but if this checklist is loaded as a lot of us think it will be, i think holding it sealed will pay dividends and certainly more so than in previous years.

The long term challenge Series 1 generally has? Players included within have cards in every product. This means their demand gets spread around. Every year there are 1-2 "hot players" included in Series 1... I observe those players who make the cut, like Bregman / Judge in '17 or Devers / Buehler / Albies in '18, end up with lower relative pricing across the board given the HUGE amount of product they are represented in.

The later in the year a player is called up and represented, and the more restricted their card base is, the higher their relative card prices are.

That's my observation, at least.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

2017 wasn't so bad either with Benintendi, Moncada, and Swanson. Really the only dud in the last few years was 2019. Recency bias strikes again.

‘17 series 1? That one remains one of the best ever. The big names now are: Bregman and Judge... and those you mention could make a comeback.

Has made me wonder about hoarding some of it but I just don’t do wax any more


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[kyle121592]

Is the blowout link for Jumbo cases broken? Both take me to Hobby landing page.

[Bowman1951]

Originally Posted by cj828282

Jumbo cases now listed for more than hobby cases.

Any insight as to why jumbo may be jumping faster over hobby?

[kyle121592]

Originally Posted by Bowman1951

Any insight as to why jumbo may be jumping faster over hobby?

They are probably selling through jumbos faster and incrementally raising the price as the demand goes up.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bowman1951

Any insight as to why jumbo may be jumping faster over hobby?

This whole group break event.

[yrocks2001]

Jumbo's also have the new parallels that adds extra value

[Bowman1951]

Originally Posted by kyle121592

They are probably selling through jumbos faster and incrementally raising the price as the demand goes up.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This whole group break event.

I saw clears /10 were only available in Hobby so I was wondering if there was an inverse correlation where people may be more into jumbo.

I know Brent and Rebecca do a fine breakdown during the big releases as to what holds the best value based on odds. That info likely isn't available yet but I thought maybe someone had an analysis that pushed the market either way.

[Bowman1951]

Originally Posted by yrocks2001

Jumbo's also have the new parallels that adds extra value

Aaahhh there it is as I was typing, what is this parallel?

[LVDan]

The new jumbo only parallel is gold foil of some sort I think?
With insert ratios for each flagship product format seemingly decided by a Price is Right-style big spinning wheel it would be really tough for me to make a huge move on jumbos considering they have gotten the shaft in a few recent releases. Im guessing the beefed up 2019 s2 jumbos have people hoping and believing that will continue w/ 2020 s1.
Really tough to predict and also tough for me to forsake a shot at a clear/10.
Who knows?

[Bowman1951]

Originally Posted by LVDan

The new jumbo only parallel is gold foil of some sort I think?
With insert ratios for each flagship product format seemingly decided by a Price is Right-style big spinning wheel it would be really tough for me to make a huge move on jumbos considering they have gotten the shaft in a few recent releases. Im guessing the beefed up 2019 s2 jumbos have people hoping and believing that will continue w/ 2020 s1.
Really tough to predict and also tough for me to forsake a shot at a clear/10.
Who knows?

Thanks Dan, that's the first I had heard about the new gold foil.

[Bowman1951]

One thing I believe that wasn't included in the early Yordan markups is the fact that he'll also have the rookie cup on his RC like Bregman did back in 2017 S1.

Here is the early card that was released...



But this article clarifies that the cup should be added now for S1. I'm not saying it makes a hellova lot of difference but do think it'll be cool that he has this also.

https://www.topps.com/blog/2019-topp...up-awards.html