2019 Hall of Fame Discussion

[88horsepower]

Originally Posted by babybull

Amen to that. Bonds ONLY became HOF worthy after he started with the chemicals. And, let's be "clear" here, his 1993 season was the year his production jumped to never before seen levels. Prior to that year, he was never in the "cream" of the crop in MLB.

He already won two MVP awards by 1993, and probably should have won a third over Terry Pendleton. Saying he was never in the Elite conversation bride 1993 is pretty laughable.

[mfw13]

So just to provoke some more controversy/discussion, I'm going to post my hypothetical ballot, along with my reasoning.

A few things to know about how I view the HOF:

- I'm a "small Hall" guy who thinks that the HOF should primarily be reserved for GOAT's

- I'm a "five-tool" guy....i.e. position players need to be at least league average in all five tools

- If you played more than 50% of your games as a DH, you're not a GOAT, especially given the health/fatigue advantages DH's have over regular position players

- Relief pitchers, no matter how good, are not GOATS because they simply do not throw enough innings to make a meaningful impact on the game...never mind that most became relievers because they were horrible starters

- Steroid use only matters statistically to me, not ethically

That said, here is my ballot:

1) Roy Halladay - 65.5 WAR, 2 CY's, seven top-5 Cy finishes, 4x led league in pitching WAR, with four other top-4 finishes

2) Barry Bonds - greatest player of the modern era irrespective of steroids

3) Roger Clemens - 7 CY's....whatever steroids he used are irrelevant

4) Larry Walker - 72.7 WAR, and was the best defensive RF of his era, winning 7 Gold Gloves...his offensive numbers were certainly helped by playing in Coors Field, but he was superb offensive player outside of Coors as well, with a road OPS around .900 while playing for the Rockies. In his MVP year, actually had a higher OPS on the road than he did at home. Stole 230 bases as well. Bottom line....great all-around player.

5) Andruw Jones - 11 Gold Gloves, 62.8 WAR, 111 OPS+....needs to be viewed as a defensive star who was decent offensively....or to put it another way, he was better than Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith offensively, and just as good on defense.

6) Curt Schilling - underrated because his best years were as second fiddle to Big Unit & Pedro, and unpopular because of his politics, but 80.6 WAR, a 1.14 career WHIP, and 3000+ strikeouts don't lie. Eight seasons where he was top-4 in pitching WAR.

7) Scott Rolen - another defensive stud, who was good enough offensively to make it based on his defense....70.2 WAR, 122 OPS+, 7 Gold Gloves

Not on my ballot:

Mariano Rivera - a failed starter who was the best ever in a statistically meaningless role...only 45 career WAR tells the true story of his actual impact.

Edgar Martinez - a pretty good hitter, but player 75% of his games as a DH...only one top-5 MVP finish (3rd in 1995).

Mike Mussina - good for a very long time, but never great, unlike Schilling, and having a 3.68 career ERA doesn't help his case.

Omar Vizquel - great defensively, but unlike Larry Walker and Andruw Jones, way below average offensively, with a career 82 OPS+, and only 46 career WAR.

Sammy Sosa - would have finished with only 300-400 HR without steroids.

Jeff Kent - good numbers on the surface, but never had a 4 WAR season outside of San Francisco, where he benefited from hitting in front of Bonds.

Fred McGriff - 493 HR, but below average defensively (-17 career dWAR)

Manny Ramirez - great numbers, but on the 2003 Mitchell Report, and suspended twice later in his career...too much possible steroid influence

Gary Sheffield - see comments on Fred McGriff...(-27 career dWAR)

Billy Wagner - great closer, but still a closer

[wood minis]

Steroid use doesn't matter when it comes to Bonds and Clemens, but it matters with Manny Ramirez?

Mariano Rivera best ever statistically in a meaningless role?

I don't know what role is more important in baseball beyond winning a game that you are ahead after 8 innings. Nothing more demoralizing to a team than a blown save, especially if it's a pattern.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by wood minis

Mariano Rivera best ever statistically in a meaningless role?

I don't know what role is more important in baseball beyond winning a game that you are ahead after 8 innings. Nothing more demoralizing to a team than a blown save, especially if it's a pattern.

Because analysis has show that save percentages have been no higher during the "closer" era than they were in the 50's/60's, when teams did not use closers.

Rivera had a career 89% save percentage.....which was pretty much league average....i.e. teams historically win about 90% of all games in which they lead going into the 9th inning irrespective of who pitches.

Point being....Rivera's saves didn't actually add a lot of value to the Yankees....about 2 WAR per season....45 WAR for his whole career.

[wood minis]

I would be curious to hear what Joe Torre would say about someone's analysis of Mariano not adding a lot of value to those Championship teams.

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because analysis has show that save percentages have been no higher during the "closer" era than they were in the 50's/60's, when teams did not use closers.

Rivera had a career 89% save percentage.....which was pretty much league average....i.e. teams historically win about 90% of all games in which they lead going into the 9th inning irrespective of who pitches.

Point being....Rivera's saves didn't actually add a lot of value to the Yankees....about 2 WAR per season....45 WAR for his whole career.

I get that relievers don't have the same impact as a starter, but you aren't comparing apples to apples. There's a difference between a save opportunity and just having the lead in the 9th inning (could be a 6 or 7 run lead). Also, a blown save does not necessarily equal a loss.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by no10pin

I get that relievers don't have the same impact as a starter, but you aren't comparing apples to apples. There's a difference between a save opportunity and just having the lead in the 9th inning (could be a 6 or 7 run lead). Also, a blown save does not necessarily equal a loss.

It's not that they don't have as much impact as a starter....it's that they don't have much impact at all. That's why their WAR figures are so low. The best position players are over 100 WAR. The best starters are over 90 WAR.

Mariano, the best closer ever, is at 56 WAR...currently ranked 227th all-time. The three players ranked above him are Cole Hamels, Orel Hershiser, and Johnny Damon. The player ranked right below him is Robin Ventura. I don't see anybody arguing that they are HOFers!

Or to put it another way, a major league team plays roughly 1470-1480 innings in a season. A closer pitches in roughly 5% of those innings. Probably half of a closer's appearances are in games where he enters in the 9th with the bases empty and protecting a two or three run lead (i.e. situations where he will get a save even if he allows a run). So a closer has a meaningful impact in probably only 2-3% of his team's innings each year.

That's why saves and closers are so overrated, and why neither Mariano or any other reliever belongs in the HOF....they just don't pitch enough to have any real or meaningful impact.

[rcgdodge]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's not that they don't have as much impact as a starter....it's that they don't have much impact at all. That's why their WAR figures are so low. The best position players are over 100 WAR. The best starters are over 90 WAR.

Mariano, the best closer ever, is at 56 WAR...currently ranked 227th all-time. The three players ranked above him are Cole Hamels, Orel Hershiser, and Johnny Damon. The player ranked right below him is Robin Ventura. I don't see anybody arguing that they are HOFers!

Or to put it another way, a major league team plays roughly 1470-1480 innings in a season. A closer pitches in roughly 5% of those innings. Probably half of a closer's appearances are in games where he enters in the 9th with the bases empty and protecting a two or three run lead (i.e. situations where he will get a save even if he allows a run). So a closer has a meaningful impact in probably only 2-3% of his team's innings each year.

That's why saves and closers are so overrated, and why neither Mariano or any other reliever belongs in the HOF....they just don't pitch enough to have any real or meaningful impact.

This is just insane. Who cares about WAR?

Without a shut down closer the Phillies don’t win the World Series in 2008.

[no10pin]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's not that they don't have as much impact as a starter....it's that they don't have much impact at all. That's why their WAR figures are so low. The best position players are over 100 WAR. The best starters are over 90 WAR.

Mariano, the best closer ever, is at 56 WAR...currently ranked 227th all-time. The three players ranked above him are Cole Hamels, Orel Hershiser, and Johnny Damon. The player ranked right below him is Robin Ventura. I don't see anybody arguing that they are HOFers!

Or to put it another way, a major league team plays roughly 1470-1480 innings in a season. A closer pitches in roughly 5% of those innings. Probably half of a closer's appearances are in games where he enters in the 9th with the bases empty and protecting a two or three run lead (i.e. situations where he will get a save even if he allows a run). So a closer has a meaningful impact in probably only 2-3% of his team's innings each year.

That's why saves and closers are so overrated, and why neither Mariano or any other reliever belongs in the HOF....they just don't pitch enough to have any real or meaningful impact.

For someone who spends a lot of time talking and analyzing baseball, you put WAY too much stock into one stat.

The HOF is not a list of players sorted by WAR.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by rcgdodge

This is just insane. Who cares about WAR?

Without a shut down closer the Phillies don’t win the World Series in 2008.

Really?

Brad Lidge had seven saves during the Phillies 2008 postseason run.

In three games he entered with nobody out and a 3-run lead.
In one game he entered with nobody out and a 2-run lead.

Anybody could have saved those 4 games.

Only in three games did he enter with a 1-run lead (but still with nobody on base)....even then, statistically, most other relievers would have saved at least two out of those three.

So he made a meaningful difference (i.e. saving a game that a different reliever would not have saved) in probably only one game.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by no10pin

For someone who spends a lot of time talking and analyzing baseball, you put WAY too much stock into one stat.

The HOF is not a list of players sorted by WAR.

No it's not....but it's the best tool we have for comparing players across positions and eras, which is why a lot of statistical analysis relies on it.

I could just as easily make the argument against relievers in the HOF without using WAR....by just discussing innings pitched, for example, or the fact that most closers (including Mariano) are failed starters.

[clarkzac]

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's not that they don't have as much impact as a starter....it's that they don't have much impact at all. That's why their WAR figures are so low. The best position players are over 100 WAR. The best starters are over 90 WAR.

Mariano, the best closer ever, is at 56 WAR...currently ranked 227th all-time. The three players ranked above him are Cole Hamels, Orel Hershiser, and Johnny Damon. The player ranked right below him is Robin Ventura. I don't see anybody arguing that they are HOFers!

Or to put it another way, a major league team plays roughly 1470-1480 innings in a season. A closer pitches in roughly 5% of those innings. Probably half of a closer's appearances are in games where he enters in the 9th with the bases empty and protecting a two or three run lead (i.e. situations where he will get a save even if he allows a run). So a closer has a meaningful impact in probably only 2-3% of his team's innings each year.

That's why saves and closers are so overrated, and why neither Mariano or any other reliever belongs in the HOF....they just don't pitch enough to have any real or meaningful impact.

Looking at just WAR for pitchers, Rivera is ahead of Whitey Ford and Sandy Koufax on bbref. Does that mean they aren't qualified as HOFers?

[KD35Russ0]

Originally Posted by mfw13

So just to provoke some more controversy/discussion, I'm going to post my hypothetical ballot, along with my reasoning.

A few things to know about how I view the HOF:

- I'm a "small Hall" guy who thinks that the HOF should primarily be reserved for GOAT's

- I'm a "five-tool" guy....i.e. position players need to be at least league average in all five tools

- If you played more than 50% of your games as a DH, you're not a GOAT, especially given the health/fatigue advantages DH's have over regular position players

- Relief pitchers, no matter how good, are not GOATS because they simply do not throw enough innings to make a meaningful impact on the game...never mind that most became relievers because they were horrible starters

- Steroid use only matters statistically to me, not ethically

That said, here is my ballot:

1) Roy Halladay - 65.5 WAR, 2 CY's, seven top-5 Cy finishes, 4x led league in pitching WAR, with four other top-4 finishes

2) Barry Bonds - greatest player of the modern era irrespective of steroids

3) Roger Clemens - 7 CY's....whatever steroids he used are irrelevant

4) Larry Walker - 72.7 WAR, and was the best defensive RF of his era, winning 7 Gold Gloves...his offensive numbers were certainly helped by playing in Coors Field, but he was superb offensive player outside of Coors as well, with a road OPS around .900 while playing for the Rockies. In his MVP year, actually had a higher OPS on the road than he did at home. Stole 230 bases as well. Bottom line....great all-around player.

5) Andruw Jones - 11 Gold Gloves, 62.8 WAR, 111 OPS+....needs to be viewed as a defensive star who was decent offensively....or to put it another way, he was better than Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith offensively, and just as good on defense.

6) Curt Schilling - underrated because his best years were as second fiddle to Big Unit & Pedro, and unpopular because of his politics, but 80.6 WAR, a 1.14 career WHIP, and 3000+ strikeouts don't lie. Eight seasons where he was top-4 in pitching WAR.

7) Scott Rolen - another defensive stud, who was good enough offensively to make it based on his defense....70.2 WAR, 122 OPS+, 7 Gold Gloves

Not on my ballot:

Mariano Rivera - a failed starter who was the best ever in a statistically meaningless role...only 45 career WAR tells the true story of his actual impact.

Edgar Martinez - a pretty good hitter, but player 75% of his games as a DH...only one top-5 MVP finish (3rd in 1995).

Mike Mussina - good for a very long time, but never great, unlike Schilling, and having a 3.68 career ERA doesn't help his case.

Omar Vizquel - great defensively, but unlike Larry Walker and Andruw Jones, way below average offensively, with a career 82 OPS+, and only 46 career WAR.

Sammy Sosa - would have finished with only 300-400 HR without steroids.

Jeff Kent - good numbers on the surface, but never had a 4 WAR season outside of San Francisco, where he benefited from hitting in front of Bonds.

Fred McGriff - 493 HR, but below average defensively (-17 career dWAR)

Manny Ramirez - great numbers, but on the 2003 Mitchell Report, and suspended twice later in his career...too much possible steroid influence

Gary Sheffield - see comments on Fred McGriff...(-27 career dWAR)

Billy Wagner - great closer, but still a closer

Some good points. Here would be a couple of my rebuttals:

1) I wouldn't call an .865 OPS "close" to .900 on the road for Walker. Walker was 20% better at home in his career than on the road. I can't find another HOF'er that was more than 11% better at home (Griffey) and most are in the 3-5% range. Meaning in Walker's next best case scenario outside of Coors, he loses ~10% of his home stats, making him very good, but not great.

Further Walker had 2.0 dWAR. Calling him the best defensive RF of his era is kinda crazy. From 85-2010 (calling this Walker's "era") he was 9th in dWAR amongst RF and nowhere near elite. He's a no for me.

2) Andruw Jones, while an elite OF, has nowhere near the defensive value as Ozzie and Brooks. They put those players on the dirt for a reason. Best defensive OF of all time maybe, but wouldn't compare him to guys on the dirt for your argument. He's a no for me.

3) Mussina - Basically the same ERA+ as Schilling. Pitched 60% of his career starts in Camden, Yankees Stadium, Fenway. Let us not forget that it was Schilling that flamed out in Baltimore and needed to go to the NL before finding his stuff. 3.95 ERA in his "great" Red Sox years for Curt. Moose and Schilling in for me.

4) Jeff Kent hit BEHIND Barry Bonds almost every game of their time together in SF. Like literally 90% of the time. Kent is a no for me, but let's get the facts straight.

Overall, way too much weight put on defense, dWAR specifically, for me. The defensive metrics are still so infantile, I'd be shocked if we don't see some big revelations come in the future. It's not as simple as individually performance like when hitting. If Andruw Jones is consistently running into right field and calling Sheffield off on balls he'd easily catch, is that hurting Sheff and propping up Jones' defense? I'm not sure personally, I'd have to look into the model, but my guess is that there is more going on here than is being captured in any single defensive stat.

[Ray27Ray52]

You see what WAR does to you kids? Makes you go insane and totally ignore reality.

Mariano is almost certainly a top 20 pitcher all time. Hell, I wouldn't even argue if someone wanted to put him in the top 10. But there are actually people who think he shouldn't be in the HOF. I mean LOL.

[silverandblack]

Originally Posted by Ray27Ray52

You see what WAR does to you kids? Makes you go insane and totally ignore reality.

Mariano is almost certainly a top 20 pitcher all time. Hell, I wouldn't even argue if someone wanted to put him in the top 10. But there are actually people who think he shouldn't be in the HOF. I mean LOL.

Couldn’t agree more with this. I can’t believe how nutty WAR makes people. Anyone against Mariano getting in must not have seen him play.

My stance on closers and DH is the same as punters in football, if it is a position and someone is the best at it then they deserve to be a HOFer. Edgar and Mariano are both deserving and I will be glad to see them go in.

[Soxfanguy]

Does Jim Thome and Frank Thomas not deserve to get in? They were mostly DHing

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by KD35Russ0

Some good points. Here would be a couple of my rebuttals:

1) I wouldn't call an .865 OPS "close" to .900 on the road for Walker. Walker was 20% better at home in his career than on the road. I can't find another HOF'er that was more than 11% better at home (Griffey) and most are in the 3-5% range. Meaning in Walker's next best case scenario outside of Coors, he loses ~10% of his home stats, making him very good, but not great.

Further Walker had 2.0 dWAR. Calling him the best defensive RF of his era is kinda crazy. From 85-2010 (calling this Walker's "era") he was 9th in dWAR amongst RF and nowhere near elite. He's a no for me.

2) Andruw Jones, while an elite OF, has nowhere near the defensive value as Ozzie and Brooks. They put those players on the dirt for a reason. Best defensive OF of all time maybe, but wouldn't compare him to guys on the dirt for your argument. He's a no for me.

3) Mussina - Basically the same ERA+ as Schilling. Pitched 60% of his career starts in Camden, Yankees Stadium, Fenway. Let us not forget that it was Schilling that flamed out in Baltimore and needed to go to the NL before finding his stuff. 3.95 ERA in his "great" Red Sox years for Curt. Moose and Schilling in for me.

4) Jeff Kent hit BEHIND Barry Bonds almost every game of their time together in SF. Like literally 90% of the time. Kent is a no for me, but let's get the facts straight.

Overall, way too much weight put on defense, dWAR specifically, for me. The defensive metrics are still so infantile, I'd be shocked if we don't see some big revelations come in the future. It's not as simple as individually performance like when hitting. If Andruw Jones is consistently running into right field and calling Sheffield off on balls he'd easily catch, is that hurting Sheff and propping up Jones' defense? I'm not sure personally, I'd have to look into the model, but my guess is that there is more going on here than is being captured in any single defensive stat.

So let’s be clear you don’t think the best defensive outfielder of all-time (who also hit 434 HRs) is a HOFer???

[Ray27Ray52]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

So let’s be clear you don’t think the best defensive outfielder of all-time (who also hit 434 HRs) is a HOFer???

I know this question isn't directed at me but I'll answer it.

He absolutely is a HOF'er. Yes, he fell off a cliff big time in his final years in the league. Nor did he ever achieve the "milestone" stats like 3000 hits or 500 HR's. But he was a force in CF and an automatic out every time someone hit the ball his way. He won 10 straight Gold Gloves! And he hit over 400 HR's. As I've asked before, what more did he have to do? He's a HOF'er period.

[jswest18]

Originally Posted by KD35Russ0

2) Andruw Jones, while an elite OF, has nowhere near the defensive value as Ozzie and Brooks. They put those players on the dirt for a reason. Best defensive OF of all time maybe, but wouldn't compare him to guys on the dirt for your argument. He's a no for me.

Overall, way too much weight put on defense, dWAR specifically, for me. The defensive metrics are still so infantile, I'd be shocked if we don't see some big revelations come in the future. It's not as simple as individually performance like when hitting. If Andruw Jones is consistently running into right field and calling Sheffield off on balls he'd easily catch, is that hurting Sheff and propping up Jones' defense? I'm not sure personally, I'd have to look into the model, but my guess is that there is more going on here than is being captured in any single defensive stat.

Although I realize defensive metrics are imperfect and cause people to question defensive value more than offensive value, if you truly consider Andruw possibly the best defensive OF of all time then there’s no way you shouldn’t consider him a HoFer. Especially when you consider he was no slouch offensively. That’s completely ignoring the value of defense.

Also, CF isn’t RF or LF where you stick lesser defensive players. C, SS, and CF are the 3 most important defensive positions on the field. I completely disagree he’s not comparable to Brooks or Ozzie because he’s not on the dirt.

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by Ray27Ray52

I know this question isn't directed at me but I'll answer it.

He absolutely is a HOF'er. Yes, he fell off a cliff big time in his final years in the league. Nor did he ever achieve the "milestone" stats like 3000 hits or 500 HR's. But he was a force in CF and an automatic out every time someone hit the ball his way. He won 10 straight Gold Gloves! And he hit over 400 HR's. As I've asked before, what more did he have to do? He's a HOF'er period.

Exactly. Much like Dale Murphy his last few years really put a dent in his batting average.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Because analysis has show that save percentages have been no higher during the "closer" era than they were in the 50's/60's, when teams did not use closers.

Rivera had a career 89% save percentage.....which was pretty much league average....i.e. teams historically win about 90% of all games in which they lead going into the 9th inning irrespective of who pitches.

Point being....Rivera's saves didn't actually add a lot of value to the Yankees....about 2 WAR per season....45 WAR for his whole career.

Well said.

Originally Posted by silverandblack

Couldn’t agree more with this. I can’t believe how nutty WAR makes people. Anyone against Mariano getting in must not have seen him play.

My stance on closers and DH is the same as punters in football, if it is a position and someone is the best at it then they deserve to be a HOFer. Edgar and Mariano are both deserving and I will be glad to see them go in.

He’s not just against Mariano, he’s against all closers.

Closer isn’t a position. It’s the just what we call the guy who comes in and pitches the 9th inning. But if it’s a position, then how about setup man? Should we induct Arhtur Rhodes because he has the most career Holds? How about pinch hitter? Pinch runner? These are positions. How about the best backup catcher?

[rwperu34]

While I generally agree that RP are some of the weakest in the HOF, Rivera is on another level. Sure his 56 regular season WAR leaves him a bit short, but the postseason counts. He was the ace reliever on FIVE championship teams. His post season ERA is 0.70 in 141 innings. Those are the highest leverage innings any pitcher ever pitches. He also made 13 all star games, is #1 in career ERA+, and has an HOF monitor of over 200 (19th all time). He is every bit a 1st ballot HOFer. I'd say he did more to help the Yankees win those five titles than Jeter.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Well said.



He’s not just against Mariano, he’s against all closers.

Closer isn’t a position. It’s the just what we call the guy who comes in and pitches the 9th inning. But if it’s a position, then how about setup man? Should we induct Arhtur Rhodes because he has the most career Holds? How about pinch hitter? Pinch runner? These are positions. How about the best backup catcher?

I generally agreed with all of this until I discovered Win Probablity Added. I’ve never been good at explaining it, but it measures a players contribution to his team’s win expectancy based on every plate appearance.

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

It’s far from a perfect stat, and closers do get some extra points for ending games (always going from x% win expectancy to 100%), but I do think it gives a different perspective than WAR or any other stats.

The career pitching leaderboard for WPA below.... I’m not sure what year it started, but it looks like late 80’s.

1. Roger Clemens
2. Greg Maddux
3. Mariano Rivera
4. Randy Johnson
5. Pedro Martinez

[RW3FAN]

If you don’t think Edgar Martinez belongs in the Hall, you’re a fool.

[RW3FAN]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Nobody's saying that....just that if you were so bad defensively that your team forced you to be a DH, the bar for your hitting should be that much higher.

Edgar Martinez was a great hitter for average, and an above average (but not great) hitter for power. That's not enough, IMHO, to overcome his defensive deficiencies.

And for players who were primarily DH's, the fact that they therefore had fewer injuries, and were better rested when hitting, also has to be factored in. Playing the field for nine innings every days does take it's physical and mental toll, something which DH's don't have to deal with.

Like a relief pitcher?
BTW, Edgar got hurt FYI.