The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Josh611

We both know the credit card stat doesn’t mean anything. Adjust it for inflation to compare to prior years, especially before COVID. I add to that figure every month and none of it is true debt.

I do slightly feel for the people struggling because of the government shutdown. I know a supervisor for TSA who is having all sorts of employees calling off because they can’t afford the gas to get to work. That’s actually sad. I’m usually an ass and don’t have sympathy for people, but this is just kind of dumb. Luckily airlines have stepped up and paid for meals for TSA employees to help.

The shutdown is on day 40, why do people not have money for gas? No financial cushion? Credit card debt at record highs, credit cards possibly maxed out so can't get gas, no financial cushion? I think the dots are connecting

I get they aren't being paid right now, but where's the emergency funds or at the very least a credit card that can take a $50 charge?

So it's a meaningful indicator of household financial strain (people relying heavily on credit cards), basically a yellow flag at this point and worth watching

I guess CNBC was on point when they said the average American has less than $500 in accessible savings

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Easy trades to see. Got here faster than I thought, was expecting next week

If you can understand flow you can take these types of trades all day

Followed my plan, added a starter light size SPY 3/31 650's then @ 6600 (won't happen today) I'll add more if it gets down there

Easy stress free trading

Futures are flying

added a starter light size SPY 3/31 650's✅

Easy stress free trading, going to be a great week

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Easy trades to see. Got here faster than I thought, was expecting next week

If you can understand flow you can take these types of trades all day

Followed my plan, added a starter light size SPY 3/31 650's then @ 6600 (won't happen today) I'll add more if it gets down there

Easy stress free trading

All out of the new SPY adds - up $1k per contract

Holding my SPY adds from April for a possible Dec run up to 7000 SPX

Just watching the rest of the day, want to see where SPX/SPY closes

[pejc300]

Blazed - I've been following this post for a long time. I still have zero idea what is happening, but I respect that you do. Not sure if you're willing to share, but do you have a target goal each day/week that you are looking to hit? You seem to be really good at this. Are you making a full-time living doing this?

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Blazed - I've been following this post for a long time. I still have zero idea what is happening, but I respect that you do. Not sure if you're willing to share, but do you have a target goal each day/week that you are looking to hit? You seem to be really good at this. Are you making a full-time living doing this?

Yes, this is my full time job, don't really have a daily/weekly goal (10k+ weeks are good weeks) I just look at the EOM gains but what really counts is EOY

SPX/SPY options are the ultimate playground which is why I mostly focus on them (throw in other tickers here and there). Once you nail consistency, position sizing, directional flexibility (being able to trade both ways) and volatility awareness (VIX) you can realistically make mid 6 figures consistently

If you've been following and want to learn, a whole lot of info in here to get started, it’s a process and it takes time in the beginning but worth it in the end

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Yes, this is my full time job, don't really have a daily/weekly goal (10k+ weeks are good weeks) I just look at the EOM gains but what really counts is EOY

SPX/SPY options are the ultimate playground which is why I mostly focus on them (throw in other tickers here and there). Once you nail consistency, position sizing, directional flexibility (being able to trade both ways) and volatility awareness (VIX) you can realistically make mid 6 figures consistently

If you've been following and want to learn, a whole lot of info in here to get started, it’s a process and it takes time in the beginning but worth it in the end

Awesome, thank you! I know like anything it is trial and error and lots of learning and "stupid tax." I know they say very few people make an actual living day trading. I don't think I'll be on of them, but a lot of people say you can't really make money selling cards consistently, but I have certainly done well at that. Thank you!

[Blazed]

Yesterday's flows were flat

Large call wall at 6900 is the next logical target

Now just waiting to see which one hits first > 7000 or 6600

Should have an idea by next week

[ajlaxmn]

Just testing something regarding inserting Images.

[ajlaxmn]

Blaze, going to start trying to understand flow better, I've asked and inquired with you no show of 100+ times, and while there are times I think I grasp it (such as times with large candles moving up or down when its very obvious, there are times you may reference "flow is selling" or "flow is buying" and for whatever reason I am just not seeing it. First image below, flat because of the sideways movement in each purple rectangle. Any reason there was no consideration for Calls with 6806 support? Low volume, sideways flow?

[ajlaxmn]

I also don't know how to make picture smaller. I'm sure it's really easy, just used the post a link method.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

So 0dte pushed the market up today but longer dated flow is still bearish

Mag 7 flow is still bearish

So still looking to go lower over the next week or 2 based on flow

Not taking puts yet, and probably won't, I'll just keep my leap positions and add to them going into Dec

Looking to add C's @ 6600 if it can get down there, maybe a starter @ 6650 if it can get down there

So the reference to 11/5 flow below in your above post, makes sense, very clear.




For reference, are you using the Daily for the longer dated flow statement? If so this is where I guess I don't really see it, but maybe I do, just overthinking it?

[Josh611]

When he’s talking about flow, I believe he’s talking about order flow, directly looking at the larger orders or biggest dollar transactions. The money that moves the market

When I was trading more frequently I used Unusual Whales to get the data. There’s probably a free way to get it, I just don’t trade enough to look at it anymore.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Josh611

When he’s talking about flow, I believe he’s talking about order flow, directly looking at the larger orders or biggest dollar transactions. The money that moves the market

When I was trading more frequently I used Unusual Whales to get the data. There’s probably a free way to get it, I just don’t trade enough to look at it anymore.

Correct

For anyone interested - I use Barchart for the daily put/call ratio and real time flow for confirmation of what I see during normal trading hours

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Blaze, going to start trying to understand flow better, I've asked and inquired with you no show of 100+ times, and while there are times I think I grasp it (such as times with large candles moving up or down when its very obvious, there are times you may reference "flow is selling" or "flow is buying" and for whatever reason I am just not seeing it. First image below, flat because of the sideways movement in each purple rectangle. Any reason there was no consideration for Calls with 6806 support? Low volume, sideways flow?

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

So the reference to 11/5 flow below in your above post, makes sense, very clear.




For reference, are you using the Daily for the longer dated flow statement? If so this is where I guess I don't really see it, but maybe I do, just overthinking it?

Are you looking at flow or just at volume and candles?

If you're just looking at volume and candles that's why flow wasn't making sense

DM sent

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Yesterday's flows were flat

Large call wall at 6900 is the next logical target

Now just waiting to see which one hits first > 7000 or 6600

Should have an idea by next week

Nice dip this morning

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Are you looking at flow or just at volume and candles?

If you're just looking at volume and candles that's why flow wasn't making sense

DM sent

Just looking at candles and volume, I only ever considered "flow" as candle movement/size, which is why sometimes when you referenced flow selling and the candles weren't reflecting that OR kind of reflecting that I never really got it.

Don't see a DM, might not have gone through. I think the chart you referenced above is one I haven't seen before, so maybe if that's what you reference and haven't seen it before maybe that's why I never understood flow, hahaha, here I am making up flow.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Correct

For anyone interested - I use Barchart for the daily put/call ratio and real time flow for confirmation of what I see during normal trading hours

This real time flow on Barnhart? The Tradytics trading tool I was subscribed to had a market net flow, which I didn't get to try out for day trading, but I would be curious to see how it lines up in comparison with what you use.

Maybe this is the missing key to the volume, levels, flow trifecta. I was acting like flow was this mysterious thing that you needed all the screen time to learn/figure out.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Just looking at candles and volume, I only ever considered "flow" as candle movement/size, which is why sometimes when you referenced flow selling and the candles weren't reflecting that OR kind of reflecting that I never really got it.

Don't see a DM, might not have gone through. I think the chart you referenced above is one I haven't seen before, so maybe if that's what you reference and haven't seen it before maybe that's why I never understood flow, hahaha, here I am making up flow.

Ah, ok makes sense

You can watch the options chain too and watch the calls/puts at key levels (basically what unusualwhales mentioned above does - they just show you calls/puts volume) to get an idea of flow too, that's how I used to do it

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

This real time flow on Barnhart? The Tradytics trading tool I was subscribed to had a market net flow, which I didn't get to try out for day trading, but I would be curious to see how it lines up in comparison with what you use.

Maybe this is the missing key to the volume, levels, flow trifecta. I was acting like flow was this mysterious thing that you needed all the screen time to learn/figure out.

No it's a script on TV that shows actual flow and easier to follow than looking at options chains or using sites like unusualwhales

To the last bolded, yeah flow makes a whole world of difference especially on days where low volume is pushing up but flow is bearish. That's how I was able to see the drop coming after the low volume push

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

So 0dte pushed the market up today but longer dated flow is still bearish

Mag 7 flow is still bearish

So still looking to go lower over the next week or 2 based on flow

Not taking puts yet, and probably won't, I'll just keep my leap positions and add to them going into Dec

Looking to add C's @ 6600 if it can get down there, maybe a starter @ 6650 if it can get down there

Flow showed the drop further out which we saw yesterday and today

Originally Posted by Blazed

Easy trades to see. Got here faster than I thought, was expecting next week

If you can understand flow you can take these types of trades all day

Followed my plan, added a starter light size SPY 3/31 650's then @ 6600 (won't happen today) I'll add more if it gets down there

Easy stress free trading

Added starter position as planned

Originally Posted by Blazed

All out of the new SPY adds - up $1k per contract

Holding my SPY adds from April for a possible Dec run up to 7000 SPX

Just watching the rest of the day, want to see where SPX/SPY closes

Could see the drop further out so did a full exit on my new adds since they popped faster than expected

If you can read flow, you can be more confident in trades and see what's possibly coming up ahead

Of course that can change with news or any other catalyst in between




---------------------------------------------

Bounced @ 6650 this morning, didn't add anymore leaps but will if it hits 6600

6700 seems to be holding for now

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

FNMA / FMCC

Expect volatility this month

Nov was supposed to be the possible "IPO" month which probably isn't happening > better possibility is Dec/early next year

Still holding full position, only 2 outcomes here, it goes to $0 or creates generational wealth

Super high risk trade but if things go right it could be the trade of a lifetime

Got the volatility this month lol

Took a nice dip yesterday

Ackman doing a spaces presentation next Tuesday on GSE’s SPO/IPO, said his idea can be done before EOY

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Got the volatility this month lol

Took a nice dip yesterday

Ackman doing a spaces presentation next Tuesday on GSE’s SPO/IPO, said his idea can be done before EOY

Grabbed 100 more shares on the drop. Now just sit and wait. Fine with the 300 I have now.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Ah, ok makes sense

You can watch the options chain too and watch the calls/puts at key levels (basically what unusualwhales mentioned above does - they just show you calls/puts volume) to get an idea of flow too, that's how I used to do it



No it's a script on TV that shows actual flow and easier to follow than looking at options chains or using sites like unusualwhales

To the last bolded, yeah flow makes a whole world of difference especially on days where low volume is pushing up but flow is bearish. That's how I was able to see the drop coming after the low volume push

Got it. You wouldn't mind sharing what Flow it is would you? (not sure if its a personal script or not).

Currently searching the indicators to see if I can identify which one it is. Would possibly like to use this for "Replay" in conjunction with the ThinkOrSwim replay functions to practice.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Grabbed 100 more shares on the drop. Now just sit and wait. Fine with the 300 I have now.

Nice! Hope you were able to fill in the 7 - 8 area

It's basically a wait and see game at this point

[Blazed]

A lot going on this week news/data (NFP) and some big earnings NVDA

No edge on direction at the moment so just watching

6700 key level > 6750 > 6800 upside / 6650 > 6640 downside

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

A lot going on this week news/data (NFP) and some big earnings NVDA

No edge on direction at the moment so just watching

6700 key level > 6750 > 6800 upside / 6650 > 6640 downside

6750 & 6700 key level✅- rejected at resistance and broke below key level

Trading is easy

Start with support/resistance, once you figure that out, add volume and flow = easy $11k day