More magical/special milestone to you: 3,000 hits or 500 HR?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Yeah, I agree with his overall point.

But BO has spoken: hits rule and it’s not even close.

But the two thoughts are not mutually exclusive.

I agree that 500 HR hitters are better hitters overall, but also think that in this day and age achieving 3000 hits is more special.

We've had three guys hit 4 HR in a game just this year, but that doesn't change the fact that if somebody got a hitting streak over 30 games going, or was hitting .400 in August, their achievements would be considered a lot more special.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by mfw13

But the two thoughts are not mutually exclusive.

I agree that 500 HR hitters are better hitters overall, but also think that in this day and age achieving 3000 hits is more special.

We've had three guys hit 4 HR in a game just this year, but that doesn't change the fact that if somebody got a hitting streak over 30 games going, or was hitting .400 in August, their achievements would be considered a lot more special.

I do often find myself having day dreams about Bobby getting a hit streak over 50…

[21Pittsburgh58]

If I'm going to sit down and watch a baseball player achieve a historical milestone of the two, it's always going to be the 3,000th hit.

I think radio made the avg/hits guys legendary and television has romanticized the HR.

Both milestones are awesome!

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

No chance 10 guys get to 500 homers by 2045.

Where can I sign up for this bet? It’s easy money taking the over

[mgip21]

Yeah in today’s game I think the 3000 hits will be harder(more special), but the 500 hr always more impressive.

[jhssketchcards]

I just realized 8 of the 13 500 HR club debuting 1986 and later are all PED users or suspected.

Bonds
Rodriguez
McGwire
Sosa
Ortiz
Manny
Palmeiro
Sheffield

But yeah I’m sure none of the current guys on pace use anything. Just a bunch of bigger, stronger, faster machines (yes I included Ortiz).

Sorry, but percentages say some of them are juicing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Where can I sign up for this bet? It’s easy money taking the over

8 guys have done it over the last 20 years.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

8 guys have done it over the last 20 years.

There have been 19 players all-time to have between 350 and 400 home runs through their age-32 season -- Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Giancarlo Stanton are included in that list.

Only 6 of the retired 15 players on the list ended up hitting 500 or more home runs.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

There have been 19 players all-time to have between 350 and 400 home runs through their age-32 season -- Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Giancarlo Stanton are included in that list.

Only 6 of the retired 15 players on the list ended up hitting 500 or more home runs.

Exactly. Trout was a shoo in for 500 until he wasn't. None of the guys being mentioned are a lock to get to 500. History shows they all won't

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

8 guys have done it over the last 20 years.

So where do I sign up? There will definitely be more than 10 before 2045

Easy money

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by asujbl

So where do I sign up? There will definitely be more than 10 before 2045

Easy money

Name 10 guys who will.

Here are the 8 who have done it in the last 20 years. Several of them known to PED users.

Miguel Cabrera — Aug 22, 2021

David Ortiz — Sep 12, 2015

Albert Pujols — Apr 22, 2014

Gary Sheffield — Apr 17, 2009

Manny Ramírez — May 31, 2008

Jim Thome — Sep 16, 2007

Alex Rodríguez — Aug 4, 2007

Frank Thomas — Jun 28, 2007

[rcgdodge]

I'll play along, I think the following guys have a strong shot at 500 HRs.

Giancarlo Stanton
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Juan Soto

50/50 chance
Mike Trout
Kyle Schwarber
Pete Alonso


25% chance
Eugenio Suarez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by rcgdodge

I'll play along, I think the following guys have a strong shot at 500 HRs.

Giancarlo Stanton
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Juan Soto

50/50 chance
Mike Trout
Kyle Schwarber
Pete Alonso


25% chance
Eugenio Suarez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr

I'm not as optimistic as you. Let's check back in 2045

[mfw13]

The main factor to look at is contract length.....because guys who signed to long-term deals will be kept in the lineup no matter how productive they are....this is how Miggy Cabrera was able to get to both 500 HR and 3000 hits....he got to 500 HR in his age 38 season, and 3000 hits in his age 39 season, both long after he had ceased to be a productive player (his last season with more than 1 WAR was his age 33 season).

All the 30+ guys who are decent candidates are signed to long enough deals that they should be able to get there EXCEPT for Schwarber, who's a free agent after this season. If he can get a 4-year deal, he should make it....anything shorter, and he'll have to keep producing at current levels for the entire length of his contract to get to the next one.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The main factor to look at is contract length.....because guys who signed to long-term deals will be kept in the lineup no matter how productive they are....this is how Miggy Cabrera was able to get to both 500 HR and 3000 hits....he got to 500 HR in his age 38 season, and 3000 hits in his age 39 season, both long after he had ceased to be a productive player (his last season with more than 1 WAR was his age 33 season).

All the 30+ guys who are decent candidates are signed to long enough deals that they should be able to get there EXCEPT for Schwarber, who's a free agent after this season. If he can get a 4-year deal, he should make it....anything shorter, and he'll have to keep producing at current levels for the entire length of his contract to get to the next one.

If a team otherwise sucks and is going nowhere, then yeah, I think an unproductive player who is stat accumulating will get their ABs. But if they're dragging a contending team down and holding it back, then I think they'll get sent to the bench or traded/released.

As it stands, Giancarlo Stanton, at age 35, is still a productive player -- he's got 20 home runs in only 225 PA so far this season.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

I just realized 8 of the 13 500 HR club debuting 1986 and later are all PED users or suspected.

Bonds
Rodriguez
McGwire
Sosa
Ortiz
Manny
Palmeiro
Sheffield

But yeah I’m sure none of the current guys on pace use anything. Just a bunch of bigger, stronger, faster machines (yes I included Ortiz).

Sorry, but percentages say some of them are juicing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You can't discount the possibility, but the game has changed with an emphasis on launch angle and the long ball nowadays -- LA has steadily increased from 10.9 degrees in 2015 to 13.5 degrees so far this season, and league-average HR% has increased from 2.7% in 2015 to 3.1% so far in 2025.

Players are also taking better care of their bodies -- the science of nutrition has advanced since the 90s.

But the game is also harder to play than ever before. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever -- four-seam fastballs have steadily increased in velocity from 92.5 mph in 2015 to 94.4 mph so far this season -- and breaking balls are nastier than ever. It can't be easy for hitters in their mid-to-late 30s to compete in that environment.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by rcgdodge

I'll play along, I think the following guys have a strong shot at 500 HRs.

Giancarlo Stanton
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Aaron Judge
Shohei Ohtani
Juan Soto

50/50 chance
Mike Trout
Kyle Schwarber
Pete Alonso


25% chance
Eugenio Suarez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr

It could be someone who is just starting (Kurtz, Caminero) or hasn't even debuted yet.