Topps 582 Montgomery Club

[Archimedes]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Lol, people are just falling into the trap of seeing the top 1% of breaks and thinking those are common.

There's literally two guys you want to hit out of 38 base autos. For a base set of 300 there's about three veterans maybe three rookies you want, and that's generous on the rookies.

And all the rookie autos are equally distributed so it's not like your shot at a Kurtz is any better than 1:38 boxes.

The only surprise is you might land a Sapphire Selections auto. EV is so low on this product compared to retail price.

A middle tier box is probably like a Brooks Lee green auto and a Trea Turner black refractor.

Sounds like someone didn’t get any boxes!


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[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

Sounds like someone didn’t get any boxes!


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Dumped my MC on Ebay.

[Archimedes]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Dumped my MC on Ebay.

Smart man!!


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[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Dumped my MC on Ebay.

So you sold too early, missed out on profit and now feel the need to trash the product.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Dumped my MC on Ebay.

Wished I would have done the same.

Coby Mayo Auto /199
Gavin Sheets /25
Amadors Gold /50
Gentry Gold /50

No notable base. It’s life and I move on.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

So you sold too early, missed out on profit and now feel the need to trash the product.

Lol trashing the product. The EV is garbage, which is objectively true. Prove me wrong?

[Archimedes]

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

Wished I would have done the same.

Coby Mayo Auto /199
Gavin Sheets /25
Amadors Gold /50
Gentry Gold /50

No notable base. It’s life and I move on.

Wait, you’re going to be mature and rational about it?! Don’t you know this is BO?! This is no place for that!!


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[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

Wait, you’re going to be mature and rational about it?! Don’t you know this is BO?! This is no place for that!!


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Apologies. I order and I open. Sometimes I get a purple Witt RC auto /10 and most times I do not. Still a lot of fun, but not every box is Christmas.

[bustsomewax]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Dumped my MC on Ebay.

Didn’t think lawyers needed to worry about credit card bills.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Didn’t think lawyers needed to worry about credit card bills.

You’d be surprised.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Lol trashing the product. The EV is garbage, which is objectively true. Prove me wrong?

EV is garbage for every product on the market. That doesn't make a product immediately good or bad. Go look at what 2018 Topps Update jumbo boxes cost. Then calculate the EV and tell me it isn't garbage. Doesn't mean the product is. As products have demand or popularity over time the gap between price and expected value grows wider and wider. So as much as you want to use that as your guide, its actually the opposite. Crappy products come down in price and the EV ratio improves.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Didn’t think lawyers needed to worry about credit card bills.

I wish I didn't 😑

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by premium1981

EV is garbage for every product on the market. That doesn't make a product immediately good or bad. Go look at what 2018 Topps Update jumbo boxes cost. Then calculate the EV and tell me it isn't garbage. Doesn't mean the product is. As products have demand or popularity over time the gap between price and expected value grows wider and wider. So as much as you want to use that as your guide, its actually the opposite. Crappy products come down in price and the EV ratio improves.

Who's driving potential EV in 2025 Sapphire? You need Kurtz and Wood to both be prime Pujols. There's no elite rookie talent in the base set so your best hit there is Ohtani or Judge veteran parallels.

I'm not saying you can't make money flipping under a greater fool theory on this release. Just that 90% of boxes are going to be tremendous losers at $479.

[Boredlawyer]

I'm not trying to dispel the theory that you can make money flipping these. I'm trying to dispel the FOMO that these are "loaded" when there's less than ~1000 total cards in the print run that are worth $500; being all Kurtz autos, Wood auto parallels, low numbered/super autos, Ohtani auto, low numbered parallels of about 2% of the base set, and some of the 1/1s.

Not sure on exact number of boxes, but assuming 389 autos of each rookie at one per box, you're looking at almost 15,000 boxes.

[Boredlawyer]

Napkin math on hits

15k boxes

-~400 Kurtz autos
~200 Wood parallel autos (base won't break even)
~40 superfractors autos
~50 low numbered Judge, Ohtani, Skenes parallels that would break even
Low numbered Wilson, Sasaki, Kim, Jobe, Schwell, Waldrep, Shaw, Campbell, Crews, Smith, Rice parallels. Maybe 400 of these total? You can snag a Campbell orange for less than the price of a box but maybe Rice gold goes for $750?

Throw in maybe 150 total Sapphire autos-Trout, Ohtani, low numbered parallels of them and the others, and maybe 50 more Non auto Sapphires.

And maybe 25-50 1/1s go for $500+? Most won't clear $200.

So maybe 1350 total cards, at most, across 15k boxes that break even at $700 per box? Maybe a couple hundred more to account for low numbered variation parallels, low numbered Skenes stuff, anything I overlooked.

Just don't see the value at $700

If underlying value is this low, then I flip all day

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Napkin math on hits

15k boxes

-~400 Kurtz autos
~200 Wood parallel autos (base won't break even)
~40 superfractors autos
~50 low numbered Judge, Ohtani, Skenes parallels that would break even
Low numbered Wilson, Sasaki, Kim, Jobe, Schwell, Waldrep, Shaw, Campbell, Crews, Smith, Rice parallels. Maybe 400 of these total? You can snag a Campbell orange for less than the price of a box but maybe Rice gold goes for $750?

Throw in maybe 150 total Sapphire autos-Trout, Ohtani, low numbered parallels of them and the others, and maybe 50 more Non auto Sapphires.

And maybe 25-50 1/1s go for $500+? Most won't clear $200.

So maybe 1350 total cards, at most, across 15k boxes that break even at $700 per box? Maybe a couple hundred more to account for low numbered variation parallels, low numbered Skenes stuff, anything I overlooked.

Just don't see the value at $700

If underlying value is this low, then I flip all day

I'm not gonna disagree with math. Would I rip this for $700. No way. This is why singles are the way to go.

But at what point do people who love to rip or jump into breaks say no? When EV is 20% of cost? 10%? This is really one of the driving questions for the market. But that's even assuming the market is somewhat rational/logical.

Throw in that ppl love that chase/gambling and others have FOMO and that can sustain the market for awhile.

[anusinha]

a 10% chance to make your money back on 1 card is actually pretty good.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I'm not gonna disagree with math. Would I rip this for $700. No way. This is why singles are the way to go.

But at what point do people who love to rip or jump into breaks say no? When EV is 20% of cost? 10%? This is really one of the driving questions for the market. But that's even assuming the market is somewhat rational/logical.

Throw in that ppl love that chase/gambling and others have FOMO and that can sustain the market for awhile.

Yeah I don't have an answer for you as to that question. But I think the follow up question (and not specific to this product) is-do highly negative EV products driven by breakers lose value when breakers cannot accumulate boxes in volume?

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Yeah I don't have an answer for you as to that question. But I think the follow up question (and not specific to this product) is-do highly negative EV products driven by breakers lose value when breakers cannot accumulate boxes in volume?

Value is subjectively defined but there's multiple ways to look at this (examples, but not just limited to these, below):

- If breakers accumulate less boxes, then there's more boxes available on the secondary market (wax prices => lower).

- If breakers break less boxes, then there's less singles (for a given player) available on the secondary market (single prices => higher)

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Just don't see the value at $700

Right here is where most go wrong. You not seeing the value, or it not being good value in your opinion does not equal true no value. There is a difference between each of our opinions on value versus what the market actually says the real value is.

I always use breakers to prove the market value, because that is where most volume gets eaten up. At the current price point of $750, all it takes to equal that price is a random team break at $25 a spot (we aren't getting into specifics of fees and yada yada yada). At this price point, I don't see anyone looking for a Sapphire break and saying "$25 is too much here, I'm out". But instead, the mindset it more along the lines of "sure, that's nothing" and if they miss they do it again because of how little that amount is. This is where the market dictates value.

It doesn't matter how much people hate breakers or say its a horrible way to spend your money. That is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that is where the money is being spent. That is how the people have chosen to spend their money. So that is where you find what the true market value of something like this is. You follow the actual data, not each of our opinions.

Also, for the record, I was not the one who said the product was loaded. My entire opinion of this particular release was in comparison to the same release from last year that sells in the neighborhood of $800 a box. And this one has more potential IMO.

[Osfan81]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Right here is where most go wrong. You not seeing the value, or it not being good value in your opinion does not equal true no value. There is a difference between each of our opinions on value versus what the market actually says the real value is.

I always use breakers to prove the market value, because that is where most volume gets eaten up. At the current price point of $750, all it takes to equal that price is a random team break at $25 a spot (we aren't getting into specifics of fees and yada yada yada). At this price point, I don't see anyone looking for a Sapphire break and saying "$25 is too much here, I'm out". But instead, the mindset it more along the lines of "sure, that's nothing" and if they miss they do it again because of how little that amount is. This is where the market dictates value.

It doesn't matter how much people hate breakers or say its a horrible way to spend your money. That is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that is where the money is being spent. That is how the people have chosen to spend their money. So that is where you find what the true market value of something like this is. You follow the actual data, not each of our opinions.

Also, for the record, I was not the one who said the product was loaded. My entire opinion of this particular release was in comparison to the same release from last year that sells in the neighborhood of $800 a box. And this one has more potential IMO.

I will say that this is pretty much spot on. It sucks for people that used to open their boxes. Because of how Topps has chosen to market, the price of a box is no longer tied to singles. Boxes are now tied to breaks. So, for anybody that thinks box prices will come down...nope, not happening.

I fell prey to FOMO on this. My personal box is waiting for my kid to get home tomorrow so both of us can be here for it. While waiting to open it, I got into a random team break on Layton. I got my PC team and got the Cowser Padparadscha (my first papa, although I have plenty of 1/1 of other players) plus a gold Gunnar image variation and 2 more orange parallels. This looks like it's shorter printed compared to last year. It seems like 75% of boxes have either a black, red or padparadscha. Checklist is shorter from last year, and there's 2 Shohei's plus a few other top players with the image variations. So, I'd definitely say it's an improvement even if the rookie checklist isn't as good as past years. Would've been nice to have Cam Smith and Kurtz to have base cards, but honestly, I'd say with shortened checklist, this is better than it's been in years.

[Osfan81]

Anybody know where the odds are posted? I can’t find them now.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by Osfan81

Anybody know where the odds are posted? I can’t find them now.

I dont think they've posted them yet.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Right here is where most go wrong. You not seeing the value, or it not being good value in your opinion does not equal true no value. There is a difference between each of our opinions on value versus what the market actually says the real value is.

I always use breakers to prove the market value, because that is where most volume gets eaten up. At the current price point of $750, all it takes to equal that price is a random team break at $25 a spot (we aren't getting into specifics of fees and yada yada yada). At this price point, I don't see anyone looking for a Sapphire break and saying "$25 is too much here, I'm out". But instead, the mindset it more along the lines of "sure, that's nothing" and if they miss they do it again because of how little that amount is. This is where the market dictates value.

It doesn't matter how much people hate breakers or say its a horrible way to spend your money. That is irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that is where the money is being spent. That is how the people have chosen to spend their money. So that is where you find what the true market value of something like this is. You follow the actual data, not each of our opinions.

Also, for the record, I was not the one who said the product was loaded. My entire opinion of this particular release was in comparison to the same release from last year that sells in the neighborhood of $800 a box. And this one has more potential IMO.

That's just the greater fool theory, right? We both recognize that in the fragmented dynamics of group breaking, "Sapphire" carries weight, and rubes will spend $25 on a spot with something like an $8 EV. That's why I bought it and flipped it as well.

I just don't see what's pushing this checklist to $1000 as some have posited--sounds like we disagree with the actual checklist more than anything. I see references to the smaller base checklist being a driving point, but most of the rookie base are still garbage.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

That's just the greater fool theory, right?

Disagree completely. I don't participate on either side of breaks, but I also don't call someone a fool just because they want to drop $30 or so on a break. For some people its entertainment. For some its gambling. For some its truly just wanting their teams cards. Everyone that does it has their own reasoning. But the fact remains. That is demand. You can call someone a fool all you want, but that doesn't take away the demand and market value. I think people are foolish to spend $300,000 on a sports car, but people do it every day. It may not be for me, but the market is still there. A lot of people here who hate breakers refuse to open their eyes and see that they are in the minority. The vast majority of the hobby enjoy it. Any and all of us here on blowout not liking it or not participating in it changes nothing.