Are New Graded Base Cards Worth Buying?

izaak · 11-23-2024, 10:58 AM

I got back into the hobby this year and finally decided to see what all the hype was about with new sports cards. Back in the junk wax era, whenever I opened a pack of cards and got a good base card, I was excited and felt like it had value to trade or sell. Today, unless you get a parallel, insert, serial-numbered, or auto card...the excitement isn't there, and I also see the same for graded cards. Going on eBay and seeing top-player rookie cards sell for less than what the grading companies charge for fees is depressing, but from a speculating point of view maybe there is an opportunity?! Does anyone here speculate on base cards thinking maybe the graded ones will increase in value?

towerymt · 11-23-2024, 11:30 AM

I don't think it's worth it. To make it work, I think you need to buy a lot of cards that carry a lot of risk. If the percentage gains are good, but the cards cost less than the grading fee, then you're not making much on each card, so you might need 10 or 20 or more to see a nice return that you can spend elsewhere.

One recent example I have, I bought a few Sam Darnold base prizm PSA-10s for ~$15ea (< $10+sh) when he was the backup in SF and likely to go elsewhere as a starter. I sold in August, for barely more than $30ea, before what would be the peak in September when he actually played really well at the start of this season.

Most recent auction I see: $13.50 + shipping.

The best buys will be the injured or underperforming player. But that carries great risk. They have to either show health or improve performance.

Is the risk worth the small gains? I don't think it usually is.

If you spread your risk across many players, then you're likely to spend a lot and only hit on a few of them.

Good luck!

waytoomanycards · 11-23-2024, 12:00 PM

I don't think so. Put it this way--as good as Judge's rookie year was, by the end of the season his base gems were regularly auctioning for $20-$25. And of course virtually no one will have a rookie year that strong.

As much as newer rookie gems have fallen, they could still fall a lot more. The market is larger now but so are the pop reports.

mjohnatgt · 11-23-2024, 12:00 PM

Don't waste your time.

discodanman45 · 11-23-2024, 12:36 PM

Buying already graded vintage is the way to go with how grading companies are handing out grades for these cards, but buying slabbed up modern cards is not an investing strategy. We won't have another stupid boom in the hobby and that is the only way these cards would go up.

waytoomanycards · 11-23-2024, 01:17 PM

Another consideration is transaction costs.

If you're buying cheap $5-$10 rookie cards with the anticipation of values increasing, I would prefer raw cards, which can be shipped via ese up to $20. With slabs, about $4.50 of every transaction goes to usps.

izaak · 11-23-2024, 04:01 PM

Good info and examples! I appreciate it! I'm glad I did not go down the base card hole that deep. I will say that Bowman U and Topps Now seem to do alright, I have a few graded base ones where the values have climbed since I purchased them. I also speculate on variations, some inserts, parallels, numbered ones, and autos. At first, when I got back into the hobby I was going to sell off or trade my raw cards for just graded ones, but then I saw that raw cards have quite a market still. TBH, I never thought I'd mess with the new stuff cause I knew the junk wax era, but then I went to a few card shows and watched some influencers on YouTube and was hooked.

discodanman45 · 11-23-2024, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by izaak

Good info and examples! I appreciate it! I'm glad I did not go down the base card hole that deep. I will say that Bowman U and Topps Now seem to do alright, I have a few graded base ones where the values have climbed since I purchased them. I also speculate on variations, some inserts, parallels, numbered ones, and autos. At first, when I got back into the hobby I was going to sell off or trade my raw cards for just graded ones, but then I saw that raw cards have quite a market still. TBH, I never thought I'd mess with the new stuff cause I knew the junk wax era, but then I went to a few card shows and watched some influencers on YouTube and was hooked.

The more I am getting into the hobby, the more I am adding to my raw collection. I do grade cards that I feel can add value to them, but I am filling up top loaders and zion mag pros right now. Less risk to these cards. If I find a better version, the raw cards sell extremely well on eBay.

Cracktoast · 11-24-2024, 12:34 AM

Buying sure at the right price which is just a touch over Raw. Submitting yourself to resell in hopes of doubling the submission costs + Shipping absolutely not. I also wouldn't bother buying PSA branded cards as sellers will always want the premium return instead go with one of the lesser companies like SGC, CSG/CGC , or Beckett for a fraction of the cost.

11-23-2024, 10:58 AM	#1
izaak Member Join Date: May 2024 Location: Maine Posts: 8 notabaddomain	Are New Graded Base Cards Worth Buying? I got back into the hobby this year and finally decided to see what all the hype was about with new sports cards. Back in the junk wax era, whenever I opened a pack of cards and got a good base card, I was excited and felt like it had value to trade or sell. Today, unless you get a parallel, insert, serial-numbered, or auto card...the excitement isn't there, and I also see the same for graded cards. Going on eBay and seeing top-player rookie cards sell for less than what the grading companies charge for fees is depressing, but from a speculating point of view maybe there is an opportunity?! Does anyone here speculate on base cards thinking maybe the graded ones will increase in value?

11-23-2024, 11:30 AM	#2
towerymt Member Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: VA Posts: 8,855	I don't think it's worth it. To make it work, I think you need to buy a lot of cards that carry a lot of risk. If the percentage gains are good, but the cards cost less than the grading fee, then you're not making much on each card, so you might need 10 or 20 or more to see a nice return that you can spend elsewhere. One recent example I have, I bought a few Sam Darnold base prizm PSA-10s for ~$15ea (< $10+sh) when he was the backup in SF and likely to go elsewhere as a starter. I sold in August, for barely more than $30ea, before what would be the peak in September when he actually played really well at the start of this season. Most recent auction I see: $13.50 + shipping. The best buys will be the injured or underperforming player. But that carries great risk. They have to either show health or improve performance. Is the risk worth the small gains? I don't think it usually is. If you spread your risk across many players, then you're likely to spend a lot and only hit on a few of them. Good luck! __________________ In search of... 2018 Topps Chrome Update Max Scherzer #HMT77: Superfractor 2019 Topps Update Carter Kieboom #US109: Platinum

11-23-2024, 12:36 PM	#5
discodanman45 Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: CA Posts: 9,871 danch27	Buying already graded vintage is the way to go with how grading companies are handing out grades for these cards, but buying slabbed up modern cards is not an investing strategy. We won't have another stupid boom in the hobby and that is the only way these cards would go up. __________________ Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message!

11-23-2024, 12:00 PM	#3
waytoomanycards Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 456	I don't think so. Put it this way--as good as Judge's rookie year was, by the end of the season his base gems were regularly auctioning for $20-$25. And of course virtually no one will have a rookie year that strong. As much as newer rookie gems have fallen, they could still fall a lot more. The market is larger now but so are the pop reports.

11-23-2024, 12:00 PM	#4
mjohnatgt Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Niceville, FL Posts: 14,756 mjohnatgt mjohnatgt	Don't waste your time.

11-23-2024, 01:17 PM	#6
waytoomanycards Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 456	Another consideration is transaction costs. If you're buying cheap $5-$10 rookie cards with the anticipation of values increasing, I would prefer raw cards, which can be shipped via ese up to $20. With slabs, about $4.50 of every transaction goes to usps.

11-23-2024, 04:01 PM	#7
izaak Member Join Date: May 2024 Location: Maine Posts: 8 notabaddomain	Good info and examples! I appreciate it! I'm glad I did not go down the base card hole that deep. I will say that Bowman U and Topps Now seem to do alright, I have a few graded base ones where the values have climbed since I purchased them. I also speculate on variations, some inserts, parallels, numbered ones, and autos. At first, when I got back into the hobby I was going to sell off or trade my raw cards for just graded ones, but then I saw that raw cards have quite a market still. TBH, I never thought I'd mess with the new stuff cause I knew the junk wax era, but then I went to a few card shows and watched some influencers on YouTube and was hooked.

11-24-2024, 12:34 AM	#9
Cracktoast Member Join Date: May 2024 Posts: 1,860	Buying sure at the right price which is just a touch over Raw. Submitting yourself to resell in hopes of doubling the submission costs + Shipping absolutely not. I also wouldn't bother buying PSA branded cards as sellers will always want the premium return instead go with one of the lesser companies like SGC, CSG/CGC , or Beckett for a fraction of the cost.