Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama - Page 12

Ichi · 10-09-2024, 11:21 AM

I think they basically are letting the breakers get the rest if they want them with the 25 per customer.

I thought about it some, and since we can only speculate on how many are actually available via EQL, I would just say that I highly doubt it would've sold out to regular Joe types only.

Let's say 1000 are available, heck, only 500. Are there 500 people out there ready to charge a credit card for $8-9k all at the same time? Even if there is, there will be plenty of non-sports card related stuff preventing some transactions, such as banks declining the purchase due to their normal security measures, etc. I had to make multiple calls to my bank yesterday to have my transaction available to go through with my LCS, even with more than enough credit available to pay.

Anyways, I think it'll sell out today, but only because they're allowing the big boys to scoop up everything that regular Joes aren't buying. That way it's all sold publicly and "sells out", which is great, but not an authentic "Hey, 1,000 people just bought all these Wemby boxes at the same time!" notion.

All that said, I'm rooting for this to succeed, and I think it will. Classic supply and demand, as always, will be the driving force though.

I think it will also come down to a common theme with sports cards: What looks the coolest combined with rarity. The RPAs where you see his back and the Wembanyama name will be the best ones. These look real and you don't get that subconscious "fake" feeling in your head. Yes, all of these cards are nice and "real", but the ones that feel the "most real" will come out ahead slightly.

Good luck to everyone. I will get mine tomorrow but plan on keeping sealed for a minute while the dust settles.

GuacamoleCards · 10-09-2024, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crdbored

For this specific product, breakers on Fanatics live were given permission to open boxes starting Tuesday at midnight.
It looked like it was exclusively available on Fanatics live first. Those breakers who pulled the 1/1 were on fanatics live.

Giving breakers first dips on your app seems like the best way to get traffic and breaks going on the app. It's part of their plan to 10x the house casino.

I've mentioned this before... but there is nothing stopping Fanatics from sending all the chase hits to their own platform, thereby sending the signal that the best place to break is on their platform, and creating a vertical monopoly.

This kind of manufacturer-wholesaler-retailer vertical integration is illegal in a lot of industries, and for good reason.

Just wait until a senator's son accidently spends $100k over a weekend, and suddenly it will be a national crisis that needs immediate congressional attention.

GuacamoleCards · 10-09-2024, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tonic3

Well he better take that offer as fast as possible. There is going to be a glut of listing very very soon and 15K seems really high for that card.

He accepted the offer... but of course the new eBay policy that people sending offers don't have to agree to autopay is biting him in the ass. We'll see if the person pays.

WallyatJCCards · 10-09-2024, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 90skid

$10,700 they are pulling in for this. I've seen the guaranteed auto pack purchased in the $2800 range I think. Asking $3500 is too much.

One of these Breakers is going to get a box with an auto in the wrong pack or the "Guaranteed Auto" will be a redemption and customer will file for a refund. I'm sure a ton of oversight went into the pack out, but mistakes happen.

Promethius88 · 10-09-2024, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

He accepted the offer... but of course the new eBay policy that people sending offers don't have to agree to autopay is biting him in the ass. We'll see if the person pays.

Best way to avoid that is tell them you are happy to accept the offer. You will just change the BIN price to what they offered and they can buy it that way. Buyer has to pay right then.

WallyatJCCards · 10-09-2024, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichi

Let's say 1000 are available, heck, only 500. Are there 500 people out there ready to charge a credit card for $8-9k all at the same time?

There sure are. I can think of a dozen individual buyers who will dial up 1-5 boxes if they get through. I dream of the day I can do the same! :-)

WallyatJCCards · 10-09-2024, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GuacamoleCards

Just logged in to join the EQL and it's 25 per customer?!? WTF.

A data point for folks... my friend who hit probably the best patch I've seen so far (an "A" /25) has a $15k offer for it already.

Glad he hit a sweet card! If I paid $8k-$10k for a box and hit a $15k card, I'd feel like a winner, until the taxes, fees, headaches trying to resell the best card to recoup a few Grand. Glad he didn't get a crummy /99 auto, hopefully those folks have deep pockets and aren't someone who is spending their life savings for a box/spot.

GuacamoleCards · 10-09-2024, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Promethius88

Best way to avoid that is tell them you are happy to accept the offer. You will just change the BIN price to what they offered and they can buy it that way. Buyer has to pay right then.

He ended up getting paid. Pretty good week for my buddy. Bought a Relic Spot in a break for $4k, sold it for $15k... just bought another Relic Break Spot that includes Super Express Grading. He gets a free Wemby RPA and makes $10k this week. Happy for him (he's a long time friend for 25+ years).

GuacamoleCards · 10-09-2024, 12:26 PM

I'm still torn on whether I will buy a third box in the EQL.

Two more 1/1 autos hit today (Auto Super and 1/1 RPA). No Bron duals hit yet though.

kipgen · 10-09-2024, 12:27 PM

All this hype, all this money... seems like it's headed for the hangover of the century unless he plays out of his mind this season

WallyatJCCards · 10-09-2024, 12:33 PM

Has anyone run the odds to determine a print run?

GuacamoleCards · 10-09-2024, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyatJCCards

Has anyone run the odds to determine a print run?

Yes. 3000 boxes.

crdbored · 10-09-2024, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallyatJCCards

Has anyone run the odds to determine a print run?

Haven't seen odds but it's about 3000 boxes.

450 chrome parallels x 20 base cards = 9,000 / 3 chrome parallels per box = 3,000 boxes

Also means, 3000 relic autos and 3000 autos.

dizzy4111 · 10-09-2024, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kipgen

All this hype, all this money... seems like it's headed for the hangover of the century unless he plays out of his mind this season

He will. This is still a stupid product.

bub838 · 10-09-2024, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crdbored

Haven't seen odds but it's about 3000 boxes.

450 chrome parallels x 20 base cards = 9,000 / 3 chrome parallels per box = 3,000 boxes

Also means, 3000 relic autos and 3000 autos.

3000ish. Likely less- I’ve seen three boxes that had an extra base parallel in the “base pack” spot. Topps likely held back some cards for replacement, too.

Malsk · 10-09-2024, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ichi

Even if there is, there will be plenty of non-sports card related stuff preventing some transactions, such as banks declining the purchase due to their normal security measures, etc. I had to make multiple calls to my bank yesterday to have my transaction available to go through with my LCS, even with more than enough credit available to pay.

I think this is going to happen a lot. Not many people charge that much money at once. Will throw up red flags and get tons of blocks for sure.

sandlotsportcards · 10-09-2024, 02:33 PM

I just hit a Speciman Tank Base 12/15 in the Backyard Whatnot break.

TXRunner · 10-09-2024, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandlotsportcards

I just hit a Speciman Tank Base 12/15 in the Backyard Whatnot break.

Congrats! I have been watching the break all day. It's been a fun watch. Been trying to get one of those giveaway spots too. I wish I would have bought a sport yesterday.

obzezzed · 10-09-2024, 02:57 PM

So is trying for EQL worth it? Not to open, but to hold.

Cujobyte · 10-09-2024, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TXRunner

Congrats! I have been watching the break all day. It's been a fun watch. Been trying to get one of those giveaway spots too. I wish I would have bought a sport yesterday.

“Fun”? I’ve had to take a bottle of advil just to tolerate them lol. But yea they’re good carnival barkers.

Boxes sitting unsold on the bay at 9800. Interesting. The person who stated “biggest hangover in the hobby “ is absolutely correct.

One last thing. Backyard breaks “we will never see a break like this again”. Yea till December when fanatics busts out Wemnby Vol 2 cases at only $15k per.

TXRunner · 10-09-2024, 03:06 PM

Backyard just pulled the 1/1 of Alien inscription superfractor championship number tag RPA.

sandlotsportcards · 10-09-2024, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TXRunner

Backyard just pulled the 1/1 of Alien inscription superfractor number tag RPA.

That card is nuts

Bob Ross · 10-09-2024, 03:13 PM

Really cool seeing a thousand boxes opened before the public can even come close to them.

Great system we have here. Fun and exciting!

GuacamoleCards · 10-09-2024, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujobyte

“Fun”? I’ve had to take a bottle of advil just to tolerate them lol. But yea they’re good carnival barkers.

Boxes sitting unsold on the bay at 9800. Interesting. The person who stated “biggest hangover in the hobby “ is absolutely correct.

One last thing. Backyard breaks “we will never see a break like this again”. Yea till December when fanatics busts out Wemnby Vol 2 cases at only $15k per.

Of course boxes are going to sit unsold at 9800 now, since the EQL window is still open to get them at $8000.

The real test will be what boxes are selling for (if at all) in a week, in a month, etc.

Tonic3 · 10-09-2024, 03:31 PM

I had the intent to enter the EQL up until today but now I think my $8-9k will be better served just buying whatever 2 or 3 autos from this set I prefer. Prices for the RPAs and chrome autos should stabilize such that I can essentially buy the average contents of a box for much less than $9K. I'm not a person who thinks I'm going to hit the big 1/1. I always assume an average box

10-09-2024, 12:33 PM	#286
WallyatJCCards Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: Johnson Creek, WI Posts: 1,634 wallyssportscards wallyssportcards	Has anyone run the odds to determine a print run? __________________ 10/17/2024 - COMC 1,000+ items under 20 cents

10-09-2024, 03:06 PM	#296
TXRunner Member Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 1,110	Backyard just pulled the 1/1 of Alien inscription superfractor championship number tag RPA. __________________ SF GIANTS - SF 49ERS - SAC KINGS Last edited by TXRunner; 10-09-2024 at 03:10 PM.

10-09-2024, 03:31 PM	#300
Tonic3 Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Southwest MI Posts: 2,520	I had the intent to enter the EQL up until today but now I think my $8-9k will be better served just buying whatever 2 or 3 autos from this set I prefer. Prices for the RPAs and chrome autos should stabilize such that I can essentially buy the average contents of a box for much less than $9K. I'm not a person who thinks I'm going to hit the big 1/1. I always assume an average box __________________ Always looking for: 2001 SP Authentic Golf - Preview parallels - Gold (#/250) and Red (#/50) of any player...especially Tiger Woods.

10-09-2024, 11:21 AM	#276
Ichi Member Join Date: Feb 2021 Location: Texas Posts: 124 highgradepat	I think they basically are letting the breakers get the rest if they want them with the 25 per customer. I thought about it some, and since we can only speculate on how many are actually available via EQL, I would just say that I highly doubt it would've sold out to regular Joe types only. Let's say 1000 are available, heck, only 500. Are there 500 people out there ready to charge a credit card for $8-9k all at the same time? Even if there is, there will be plenty of non-sports card related stuff preventing some transactions, such as banks declining the purchase due to their normal security measures, etc. I had to make multiple calls to my bank yesterday to have my transaction available to go through with my LCS, even with more than enough credit available to pay. Anyways, I think it'll sell out today, but only because they're allowing the big boys to scoop up everything that regular Joes aren't buying. That way it's all sold publicly and "sells out", which is great, but not an authentic "Hey, 1,000 people just bought all these Wemby boxes at the same time!" notion. All that said, I'm rooting for this to succeed, and I think it will. Classic supply and demand, as always, will be the driving force though. I think it will also come down to a common theme with sports cards: What looks the coolest combined with rarity. The RPAs where you see his back and the Wembanyama name will be the best ones. These look real and you don't get that subconscious "fake" feeling in your head. Yes, all of these cards are nice and "real", but the ones that feel the "most real" will come out ahead slightly. Good luck to everyone. I will get mine tomorrow but plan on keeping sealed for a minute while the dust settles.

10-09-2024, 12:26 PM	#284
GuacamoleCards Member Join Date: Aug 2024 Posts: 236 guacamolecards	I'm still torn on whether I will buy a third box in the EQL. Two more 1/1 autos hit today (Auto Super and 1/1 RPA). No Bron duals hit yet though.

10-09-2024, 12:27 PM	#285
kipgen Member Join Date: May 2024 Posts: 1,423	All this hype, all this money... seems like it's headed for the hangover of the century unless he plays out of his mind this season

10-09-2024, 02:33 PM	#292
sandlotsportcards Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Massillon Ohio Posts: 3,171 sandlotsportcards nkirkbride	I just hit a Speciman Tank Base 12/15 in the Backyard Whatnot break.

10-09-2024, 02:57 PM	#294
obzezzed Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Boston, MA Posts: 1,147 spikey17matt spikey17matt	So is trying for EQL worth it? Not to open, but to hold.

10-09-2024, 03:13 PM	#298
Bob Ross Member Join Date: Oct 2019 Posts: 5,885	Really cool seeing a thousand boxes opened before the public can even come close to them. Great system we have here. Fun and exciting!