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Old 07-21-2023, 09:24 PM   #976
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Did you follow him in the minors? He had lengthy adjustment periods with high K rates after every promotion. He always made the adjustments. Not guaranteeing he'll do it in the majors, but way too early to think he won't.

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He clearly has loads of talent but if he keeps up on this trajectory is theres point the reds send him down to work on his swing and approach?

You are fighting for a playoff spot and he’s on a 3/35 run with O XBH and 16 K 2 BB. Yes he’s super fast but 1 sb over same time frame with 2 cs and also got picked off in an absurd spot that cost the reds the win.

Maybee he turns it around and lives up to his talent but he may also be a liability for a team trying to make the post season
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Old 07-21-2023, 09:24 PM   #977
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He didn't start on fire in the majors. He's had a few great games sprinkled in, but shortly after his callup he went something like 0-16 with 12 Ks right before the cycle game. People just quickly forgot that slow start.

He's also playing more 3rd than short in the majors.

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He struck out a lot, but did hit .333 for those 4 games with a HR

now he is striking out a lot, but without the hits
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Old 07-21-2023, 09:27 PM   #978
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He struck out a lot, but did hit .333 for those 4 games with a HR

now he is striking out a lot, but without the hits
His BABIP was unsustainably hi (albeit wil be higher then avg cause of his speed) so when his BABIP normalizes coupled with absurd K rate and absurd ground ball rate his BA naturally going to decline a ton
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Old 07-21-2023, 09:28 PM   #979
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Old 07-21-2023, 09:30 PM   #980
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His BABIP was unsustainably hi (albeit wil be higher then avg cause of his speed) so when his BABIP normalizes coupled with absurd K rate and absurd ground ball rate his BA naturally going to decline a ton
Correct

He is still young and could develop, but will also be interesting how his 6´5 frame holds up as a Short Stop.. very risky but very fun to watch.
will be a rollercoaster ride for those mid-long term investors
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Old 07-21-2023, 10:06 PM   #981
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and we can add another 0 for 3 with 3 Strikeouts

In my opinion this is more what could be expected from him..
though you can add a highlight reel or two per week with his speed or arm strength.

still enough time to sell
Buy prospects after they have reached the major leagues almost always will end up with big losses. Casey Schmitt is the perfect example. His auto's were got going upwards of 10k in his first couple of weeks in the bigs. Then he came bask to reality (.221 average and just 2 home runs) and anyone that purchased those on the high has got to be freaking out knowing how foolish they were. Elly is kinda reminding me of Casey Schmitt at this point. I love watching the guy play and am rooting for him but as a collector i'd sell everything I owned in the guy right now before the market completely collapses on him.
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Old 07-21-2023, 10:26 PM   #982
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Buy prospects after they have reached the major leagues almost always will end up with big losses. Casey Schmitt is the perfect example. His auto's were got going upwards of 10k in his first couple of weeks in the bigs. Then he came bask to reality (.221 average and just 2 home runs) and anyone that purchased those on the high has got to be freaking out knowing how foolish they were. Elly is kinda reminding me of Casey Schmitt at this point. I love watching the guy play and am rooting for him but as a collector i'd sell everything I owned in the guy right now before the market completely collapses on him.
This is just wild. Comparing him in any way to Schmitt is…a huge stretch.

Elly will continue to have a strongish market because he’s shown tools that *can* make him a superstar. There’s not a single prospect I can remember who dominated from the moment they were called up. This is very common.

Will he fulfill his potential? I have no idea.
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Old 07-21-2023, 10:31 PM   #983
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Reds packing them in at GABP

Elly not goin anywhere
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Old 07-22-2023, 12:22 AM   #984
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We get call after call after call at the shop "Got any Elly stuff??!!"
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Old 07-22-2023, 01:24 AM   #985
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@SwingGraphs
Elly De La Cruz is an exciting player..but he has a very big problem..

His attack angle is *2nd lowest* in MLB - only E. Hosmer is lower. This is costing him a whopping 81 pts of xwOBAcon

So unfortunate b/c w/ his above avg VBA, he could easily have top quartile contact quality


This gives me more concern than the K% at the moment. Attack angle is one of the most difficult things for players to correct... just look at Vlad Jr and his GB% problems and how they've limited him.

Now combine a huge K% with a bad attack angle and it's hard to imagine him being even a league average hitter in MLB for a while.
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Old 07-22-2023, 01:36 AM   #986
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Old 07-22-2023, 06:02 AM   #987
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@SwingGraphs

Elly De La Cruz is an exciting player..but he has a very big problem..



His attack angle is *2nd lowest* in MLB - only E. Hosmer is lower. This is costing him a whopping 81 pts of xwOBAcon



So unfortunate b/c w/ his above avg VBA, he could easily have top quartile contact quality





This gives me more concern than the K% at the moment. Attack angle is one of the most difficult things for players to correct... just look at Vlad Jr and his GB% problems and how they've limited him.



Now combine a huge K% with a bad attack angle and it's hard to imagine him being even a league average hitter in MLB for a while.
Attack angle is one of the easiest adjustments to make.

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Old 07-22-2023, 06:04 AM   #988
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Buy prospects after they have reached the major leagues almost always will end up with big losses. Casey Schmitt is the perfect example. His auto's were got going upwards of 10k in his first couple of weeks in the bigs. Then he came bask to reality (.221 average and just 2 home runs) and anyone that purchased those on the high has got to be freaking out knowing how foolish they were. Elly is kinda reminding me of Casey Schmitt at this point. I love watching the guy play and am rooting for him but as a collector i'd sell everything I owned in the guy right now before the market completely collapses on him.
"As a collector...."

I think it's funny how many people are in denial that they are investors. If what you say after saying "as a collector" is about selling before the market collapses, you aren't actually collecting. As a collector, I have no intention of selling, regardless of his card prices.

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Old 07-22-2023, 09:18 AM   #989
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They aren’t sending him down, he’s got nothing left to prove at triple A. He needs to adjust at this level.


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Old 07-22-2023, 09:25 AM   #990
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"As a collector...."

I think it's funny how many people are in denial that they are investors. If what you say after saying "as a collector" is about selling before the market collapses, you aren't actually collecting. As a collector, I have no intention of selling, regardless of his card prices.

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its Brokie behaviour for sure.
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Old 07-22-2023, 10:02 AM   #991
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Best not to try to day trade baseball cards lol. This ain't basketball where you can get 20-30 pts a game. Guys go 0 for 4 with 3ks. Some of you act like you expect every player to hit .400 with 162 hrs.

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Old 07-22-2023, 10:04 AM   #992
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"As a collector...."

I think it's funny how many people are in denial that they are investors. If what you say after saying "as a collector" is about selling before the market collapses, you aren't actually collecting. As a collector, I have no intention of selling, regardless of his card prices.

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I agree with you on this but I’m sure you’d prefer to spend $100 on a card rather than $500 on the same card. Value and cost still matter, even if you’re just collecting.

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Old 07-22-2023, 11:22 AM   #993
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Best not to try to day trade baseball cards lol. This ain't basketball where you can get 20-30 pts a game. Guys go 0 for 4 with 3ks. Some of you act like you expect every player to hit .400 with 162 hrs.

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This is straight fact
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Old 07-22-2023, 11:49 AM   #994
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A pitcher on his own team dominated from the moment they were called up - Andrew Abbott. Has wicked stuff, drawing comarisons to Greg Maddux with his pitch selection, location, movement. I know its early, but this kid got game.
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Old 07-22-2023, 12:12 PM   #995
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Would be hilarious to see him in the tank the rest of the year and 2024. Give Fanatics the same punch in the face that Topps got with Wander last year. Just hope no Julio to save them.
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Old 07-22-2023, 12:27 PM   #996
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Yeah the number of people who are upset if a guy goes like 1-4 with a double is kind of wild to me.

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Best not to try to day trade baseball cards lol. This ain't basketball where you can get 20-30 pts a game. Guys go 0 for 4 with 3ks. Some of you act like you expect every player to hit .400 with 162 hrs.

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Old 07-22-2023, 02:38 PM   #997
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Would be hilarious to see him in the tank the rest of the year and 2024. Give Fanatics the same punch in the face that Topps got with Wander last year. Just hope no Julio to save them.
This would be incredible. Im hoping for that as well. Fanatics could use a teaching moment. Strike while the moment is hot. Put them in products ASAP. Dont assume you can cash in, in the future.
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Old 07-22-2023, 02:41 PM   #998
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Yeah the number of people who are upset if a guy goes like 1-4 with a double is kind of wild to me.
There are also an incredibly high number of members here that actively root for 21-year olds to fail, because them thinking “they were right all along” makes them feel better about themselves…
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Old 07-22-2023, 02:47 PM   #999
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Elly is the scariest player on the base path since Ricky Henderson. He needs to be a top of the lineup player with an above average OBP to be the player many of us see him becoming. Lately he has been getting on only 1 time per game. This is hurting his impact on games.

Brewers figured out most of this young line up struggles with breaking balls as most young players do. Lots of adjustments are being made by the Reds and other pitchers causing some extreme highs and lows. It will all level out eventually and hopefully this exciting young team becomes a consistent contender.
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Old 07-22-2023, 02:52 PM   #1000
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Attack angle is one of the easiest adjustments to make.

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Making adjustments to any swing that gets one to the majors is not easy.

Changing attack angle is easier said than done.
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