✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Stringmusic]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Its a chrome rookie with a batting image, arguably the "best" option in that regard. If Topps Chrome Update had the batting image on the base card and the pitching image on the Rookie Debut I'd guess the Bowman Chrome rookie would be worth less.

$700 seems pretty steep for a PSA 10 base card even if he is batting.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Can somebody explain to me why the 2018 bowman chrome Shohei #1 RC sells for so much? is it short printed?

I can not answer this question at all. It doesn't make any sense to me! Since coming back to the hobby during Covid (I collected in the late 80's and early 90's as a kid) I have had a steep learning curve to understanding collector mentality as to what makes one card/brand more desirable/valuable. It is easy to understand why numbered, SP, and SSP cards are more valuable than base, it is also easy to understand why bowman chrome 1sts (and first year prospect cards) are worth more than 2nd year prospect cards, and it is easy to understand why RC logo cards are worth more than non RC logo cards.

For me though it is much harder to reason why some Topps brands are way more popular/valuable than others. I get Chrome>paper and other trends, but not others. For instance, flagship RC (series 1,2, and update) normally have the highest print runs, but seem to be the most popular cards. The reasoning seems to be because this is the players "true" RC card (ie. 2018 Topps series 2 for Ohtani). The image of the player also seems to matter to some extent.

So why is 2018 Bowman chrome Ohtani not follow these trends...to me it makes no sense. You can buy a numbered card, SP, or SSP of other Ohtani brands at the same price. Even accounting for image (batting) it makes no sense (you would think collectors would flock to Ohtani's 2018 silver pack batting card if that were the case as it has a much lower print runt and is also chrome).

I actually think the main stream collectors are missing the boat and not valuing his RC cards that have images of him both hitting and pitching!

This gets me to thinking...(I know collect what you like)...should I be buying numbered, SP, SSP Ohtani cards of Topps brands that are not as popular as the main ones (Flagship, Bowman, Bowman chrome, Topps Chrome/update, and Heritage) or should I follow the crowd as this is where demand is derived. It is an interesting and fun dilemma. In general I go for the not as popular brands base, numbered, SP, and SSP cards of Ohtani hoping that one day PR and Population numbers will matter to collectors in the future (like 10 years down the line).

[KhalDrogo]

That’s his only base Bowman Chrome. So in an era where every prospect has a first BC, multiple prospect BC, and a BC RC, he has just one of those. They’re also just three to a case. And it’s a sweet batting image. Hence the price.

[Trueblue]

I think most people forget the format of Bowman Chrome. A lot of jumbo HTAs were opened to chase autos but less hobby boxes were opened because nobody cared about non-auto at the time. That suppressed availability of base.

Still, if you feel it is overpriced for what it is, just don't buy it. I've sold all of my base and this card is no exception. To keep things in perspective, for 6-8x the price of a base PSA 10, you can get a 9 of the auto version. Value ratio feels off for me, but I understand if others feel differently.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

That’s his only base Bowman Chrome. So in an era where every prospect has a first BC, multiple prospect BC, and a BC RC, he has just one of those. They’re also just three to a case. And it’s a sweet batting image. Hence the price.

This logic seems to make sense, but seems flawed to me. His 2017 Bowman mega is his equivalent to a bowman 1st. It is his first bowman chrome card (and first US Topps card) and has a pretty limited print run. It should demand a hefty premium in the market and does.

Do you know the print run on the 2018 Bowman Chrome?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I think most people forget the format of Bowman Chrome. A lot of jumbo HTAs were opened to chase autos but less hobby boxes were opened because nobody cared about non-auto at the time. That suppressed availability of base.

Still, if you feel it is overpriced for what it is, just don't buy it. I've sold all of my base and this card is no exception. To keep things in perspective, for 6-8x the price of a base PSA 10, you can get a 9 of the auto version. Value ratio feels off for me, but I understand if others feel differently.

i find it hard to believe you do not own ANY of Ohtani's Rookie Cards!

WOW!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

This logic seems to make sense, but seems flawed to me. His 2017 Bowman mega is his equivalent to a bowman 1st. It is his first bowman chrome card (and first US Topps card) and has a pretty limited print run. It should demand a hefty premium in the market and does.

Do you know the print run on the 2018 Bowman Chrome?

since the 2017 card does not have the "1st Bowman" logo, it is dismissed by many

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

since the 2017 card does not have the "1st Bowman" logo, it is dismissed by many

I hear ya, but again a lot of these things don't make much sense to me.

[redauto5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I hear ya, but again a lot of these things don't make much sense to me.

2400 ebay results for "2018 topps chrome ohtani" and 600 results from "2018 bowman chrome ohtani". Yes a lot of these results include non Base and random cards but everyone has pretty well explained the reasons why the bowman chrome base is much sought after. Low print run, iconic image, only base chrome release from his Rookie year. The 2017 mega is a great card but it's a WBC card.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

This gets me to thinking...(I know collect what you like)...should I be buying numbered, SP, SSP Ohtani cards of Topps brands that are not as popular as the main ones (Flagship, Bowman, Bowman chrome, Topps Chrome/update, and Heritage) or should I follow the crowd as this is where demand is derived. It is an interesting and fun dilemma. In general I go for the not as popular brands base, numbered, SP, and SSP cards of Ohtani hoping that one day PR and Population numbers will matter to collectors in the future (like 10 years down the line).

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing when I got into collecting again in 2022. I actually bought some "offbrand" low print run / low population Ohtani rookies with this in mind. I can actually remember saying to a buddy of mine, "why is the BBest /150 blue refractor PSA 10 worth so much less than the Topps Chrome /150 blue refractor??? I'm going to buy the BBest instead!"

All the "flagship" and "staple" Ohtanis I bought last year shot up in value after the WBC hype. The other stuff like BBest and Gypsy Queen and the like? Sure, its up a little since then but % wise its not even close. In fact, the Gypsy Queen short prints I picked up are basically flat over the last year.

I don't actually regret buying the BBest parallels I did because I actually think its an attractive card and I intend to keep them. The positive way to look at these seemingly irrational preferences of the market is that it allows you to get equally rare cards to the ones the market has decided are valuable for a fraction of the price.

I do on the other hand regret picking up the Gypsy Queen shortprints just because they had low populations as I don't really find them aesthetically pleasing. As you said in your post "buy what you like."

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I hear ya, but again a lot of these things don't make much sense to me.

I wouldn't listen to anything the backpages guy says. His 2017 Bowman is significantly more valuable than the 2018 BC. It's over twice the price. But most people also don't care about a card where the guy isn't in an MLB uniform

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Qubits

I don't actually regret buying the BBest parallels I did because I actually think its an attractive card and I intend to keep them. The positive way to look at these seemingly irrational preferences of the market is that it allows you to get equally rare cards to the ones the market has decided are valuable for a fraction of the price.

I do on the other hand regret picking up the Gypsy Queen shortprints just because they had low populations as I don't really find them aesthetically pleasing. As you said in your post "buy what you like."

There's nothing irrational about it. You literally just said yourself GQ cards are ugly lol. It's pretty rational to also want the original sets. I personally don't care about the 25th set that Topps started making in 2015 to squeeze out more profit. I'd rather have the set with history.

[Qubits]

Originally Posted by BBases31

There's nothing irrational about it. You literally just said yourself GQ cards are ugly lol

"seemingly irrational" - AKA, not really irrational. I chose my words carefully, friend

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by redauto5

2400 ebay results for "2018 topps chrome ohtani" and 600 results from "2018 bowman chrome ohtani". Yes a lot of these results include non Base and random cards but everyone has pretty well explained the reasons why the bowman chrome base is much sought after. Low print run, iconic image, only base chrome release from his Rookie year. The 2017 mega is a great card but it's a WBC card.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Do you know the actual print run of the 2018 Bowman chrome? My guess is the 2017 Bowman mega has a lower print run.

[ThoseBackPages]

hes slow, forgive him

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Qubits

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing when I got into collecting again in 2022. I actually bought some "offbrand" low print run / low population Ohtani rookies with this in mind. I can actually remember saying to a buddy of mine, "why is the BBest /150 blue refractor PSA 10 worth so much less than the Topps Chrome /150 blue refractor??? I'm going to buy the BBest instead!"

All the "flagship" and "staple" Ohtanis I bought last year shot up in value after the WBC hype. The other stuff like BBest and Gypsy Queen and the like? Sure, its up a little since then but % wise its not even close. In fact, the Gypsy Queen short prints I picked up are basically flat over the last year.

I don't actually regret buying the BBest parallels I did because I actually think its an attractive card and I intend to keep them. The positive way to look at these seemingly irrational preferences of the market is that it allows you to get equally rare cards to the ones the market has decided are valuable for a fraction of the price.

I do on the other hand regret picking up the Gypsy Queen shortprints just because they had low populations as I don't really find them aesthetically pleasing. As you said in your post "buy what you like."

I do tend to buy what I like. In 2020 Chrome cards were going less than paper cards for most of the star players. I was still buying chrome.

Some of my favorite Ohtani RC cards are Bowman and Topps High Tek. The acrylic cards are really cool to me (they didn't exist when I collected as a kid) and they have very low print runs. Even the base cards print runs would be SP and SPP from other brands. Not sure if collectors will ever love these cards like I do, but that is ok.

[Erick]

Do we know what the print run is for the Series 2 Rainbow Foil RC is? How about the Topps Chrome Refractor RC?

Thanks in advance!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Erick

Do we know what the print run is for the Series 2 Rainbow Foil RC is? How about the Topps Chrome Refractor RC?

Thanks in advance!

the Foil Rookie Year Parallel is in the 2K range.

guestimate on the Topps Chrome Refractor Parallel is in the 2-3K range

[Erick]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

the Foil Rookie Year Parallel is in the 2K range.

guestimate on the Topps Chrome Refractor Parallel is in the 2-3K range

Nice. Thanks for the info!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

the Foil Rookie Year Parallel is in the 2K range.

guestimate on the Topps Chrome Refractor Parallel is in the 2-3K range

I read a guestimate on the Topps chrome refractor of 5k. But 2-3k seems more likely based on the ebay sightings.

Do you know the PR on 2018 Bowman Chrome?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I read a guestimate on the Topps chrome refractor of 5k. But 2-3k seems more likely based on the ebay sightings.

Do you know the PR on 2018 Bowman Chrome?

ive do not recall any discussion about the PR on his Bowman Chrome Rookie Card

if i had to guess, i would say in the 5K area.

Once Bowman Chrome went to Hobby Only, the base production dipped significantly

[Qubits]

I think print run on 2018 bowman chrome has to be higher than that. PSA 9 population is 1594 with over 3K PSA 10s.

I know people crack and resub but even accounting for that this would lead me to believe the print run is >>5k

[kidfan9]

Anyone have an Ohtani they are willing to trade? See my post in the baseball marketplace, thanks!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Qubits

I think print run on 2018 bowman chrome has to be higher than that. PSA 9 population is 1594 with over 3K PSA 10s.

I know people crack and resub but even accounting for that this would lead me to believe the print run is >>5k

there ya go!

i agree with that for sure.

maybe upwards of 8 to 10K

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

there ya go!

i agree with that for sure.

maybe upwards of 8 to 10K

So basically what people are saying is that this card is not a SP by any standard definition! Again goes back to my point of not understanding the market place very well.