Hall of Fame vs. Prospect Autos

[brjohnston1985]

This morning, I bought a Fergie Jenkins and an Andre Dawson auto and spent a total of $30. Two HOF certified autos for $30. Meanwhile, some people are spending hundreds and even thousands on cards of totally unproven prospects on a daily basis.

Does this seem crazy to anyone else? And no I’m not a newbie; I’ve been collecting for over 30 years. I guess after all this time it still doesn’t make much sense to me but it does make me grateful that this hobby can still be affordable for people like me!

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

You’re comparing a modern card of a retired player vs a player’s 1st Bowman. That’s apples to oranges. If Andre Dawson would have had a certified auto 1st Bowman that card, and its parallels, would have sold for the equivalent of thousands in 1975 money.

[Biohazarddfl]

Yes, it's crazy. There are so many great deals on HOF players. An original Greats of the Game Yogi auto sold for $39 the other day. But we are also talking about two different things. I feel like the prospecting is a form of gambling, and the HOF auto game is more collecting.

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[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

You’re comparing a modern card of a retired player vs a player’s 1st Bowman. That’s apples to oranges. If Andre Dawson would have had a certified auto 1st Bowman that card, and its parallels, would have sold for the equivalent of thousands in 1975 money.

Yes I understand that, but these cards are of players who haven’t even had a whiff of the majors yet. If they later go on to have HOF careers, then it would make more sense to me. And I also understand the difference between collecting and prospecting; I guess the latter just isn’t for me.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

Yes I understand that, but these cards are of players who haven’t even had a whiff of the majors yet. If they later go on to have HOF careers, then it would make more sense to me. And I also understand the difference between collecting and prospecting; I guess the latter just isn’t for me.

It’s not for me either. I did some prospecting when I first got into cards around 2016, but was burned out by 2021. Too many stacks of cards of players who went nowhere. I still collect ultra modern, but I mostly avoid the whole 1st Bowman thing now.

[ewokpelts]

That’s the card world these days.

[bblair_2002]

I'll take HOFer autos all day every day. I learned my prospecting lesson as a Mets fan in the mid 90s picking up cards of Jason Isringhausen,Paul Wilson,Bill Pulsipher,Rey Ordonez,Alex Ochoa and Jay Payton.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by bblair_2002

I'll take HOFer autos all day every day. I learned my prospecting lesson as a Mets fan in the mid 90s picking up cards of Jason Isringhausen,Paul Wilson,Bill Pulsipher,Rey Ordonez,Alex Ochoa and Jay Payton.

Yeah as a Cubs fan, Corey Patterson was supposed to be the next big thing but never lived up to the hype. Now I have cards of his, including a 1/1 auto, that I can’t seem to give away. And he actually did play in the majors for several years.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Here's a different perspective from a collector who never sells, so value means little to me.

I collect Cincinnati Reds exclusively. I enjoy collecting vintage Reds and have a large collection of them. But I have zero interest in cards made after their playing days and couldn't care less about modern autos of retired players. I'd rather put that money into playing days cards.

But in modern, I buy every Reds prospect's first bowman cards. It really brings enjoyment to me as I follow them through the minor leagues. Some make it, most don't. But I didn't buy the cards intending to sell them later if they make it. I bought them to collect and add some fun to the minor league season. Every single night I have the Reds on the TV and a minor league game or two on my phone, watching my favorite prospects that day. I get much entertainment watching guys I have rare cards of.

So it isn't just gamblers buying prospects. Collectors are also willing to pay a lot for rare prospect cards of their favorite minor leaguers too. And since it's all about enjoying the seasons as they happen, waiting until they bust or make the majors and the prices go down is not an option. The time to enjoy them is past.

You have to remember, for some collectors like me, the cost and the value is relatively meaningless.

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[StateEx]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

It’s not for me either. I did some prospecting when I first got into cards around 2016, but was burned out by 2021. Too many stacks of cards of players who went nowhere. I still collect ultra modern, but I mostly avoid the whole 1st Bowman thing now.

Did the same thing when I got back into the hobby and am still digging out. To the OP’s point, I’d rather have a nice Dawson auto than a stack of speculative Bowman first autos.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Here's a different perspective from a collector who never sells, so value means little to me.

I collect Cincinnati Reds exclusively. I enjoy collecting vintage Reds and have a large collection of them. But I have zero interest in cards made after their playing days and couldn't care less about modern autos of retired players. I'd rather put that money into playing days cards.

But in modern, I buy every Reds prospect's first bowman cards. It really brings enjoyment to me as I follow them through the minor leagues. Some make it, most don't. But I didn't buy the cards intending to sell them later if they make it. I bought them to collect and add some fun to the minor league season. Every single night I have the Reds on the TV and a minor league game or two on my phone, watching my favorite prospects that day. I get much entertainment watching guys I have rare cards of.

So it isn't just gamblers buying prospects. Collectors are also willing to pay a lot for rare prospect cards of their favorite minor leaguers too. And since it's all about enjoying the seasons as they happen, waiting until they bust or make the majors and the prices go down is not an option. The time to enjoy them is past.

You have to remember, for some collectors like me, the cost and the value is relatively meaningless.

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That’s totally fine. I think you’re still collecting for the right reasons. It just sounds like we have different collecting goals but that’s part of what makes the hobby great!

[rseve43]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

You’re comparing a modern card of a retired player vs a player’s 1st Bowman. That’s apples to oranges. If Andre Dawson would have had a certified auto 1st Bowman that card, and its parallels, would have sold for the equivalent of thousands in 1975 money.

^This is the bulk of it.


The other part of it is how excited people are to take a shot at getting in "on the ground floor" (even when the "ground floor" is already expensive). They think a certain prospect is the next Trout, so today's prices are going to look like a steal if he becomes a megastar.


Very, very few players actually become megastars to this degree, but understanding the intent can at least help explain why unproven minor leaguers outsell cemented HOFers.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by rseve43

^This is the bulk of it.


The other part of it is how excited people are to take a shot at getting in "on the ground floor" (even when the "ground floor" is already expensive). They think a certain prospect is the next Trout, so today's prices are going to look like a steal if he becomes a megastar.


Very, very few players actually become megastars to this degree, but understanding the intent can at least help explain why unproven minor leaguers outsell cemented HOFers.

I understand it, I just don’t agree with it. I’m happier spending a fraction of the money on the proven guys but to each their own.

[SupermanBrandon]

One is gambling and the other is collecting.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

One is gambling and the other is collecting.

Wrong. They can both be gambling and they can both be collecting. I despise this attitude that someone who collects different than me must be a gambler. I already explained how buying prospects for me has literally nothing to do with gambling. In fact, I'm so much the opposite of a gambler since I literally never sell cards that I can call YOU the gambler when you buy non-prospect cards hoping to sell later.

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[Triple B]

Supply vs demand.

There isn't a huge lineup to land autographs of Fergie Jenkins or Andre Dawson. Couple that with the sheer amount of autographs they have, and you can see why you got their cards so cheap.

There are gamblers lined up to buy a finite amount of autographs of the flavour of the week. They drive the ridiculous prices of prospect cards and while eventually they may lose 90% of the value of their gamble, you'll never lose 90% of the value of your purchase.

[awz50]

This is a topic that has been beaten to death. You also have to see there is 100x the amount of Jenkins and Dawson then lets say Cristian Hernandez .

People also want to see the star/be apart of Hernandez's career so they will spend more money to do that. So on and so on

[awz50]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

One is gambling and the other is collecting.

Eh its not that simple

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by Triple B

Supply vs demand.

There isn't a huge lineup to land autographs of Fergie Jenkins or Andre Dawson. Couple that with the sheer amount of autographs they have, and you can see why you got their cards so cheap.

There are gamblers lined up to buy a finite amount of autographs of the flavour of the week. They drive the ridiculous prices of prospect cards and while eventually they may lose 90% of the value of their gamble, you'll never lose 90% of the value of your purchase.

Well I like to collect those players so I guess that’s good news for me!

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by awz50

This is a topic that has been beaten to death. You also have to see there is 100x the amount of Jenkins and Dawson then lets say Cristian Hernandez .

People also want to see the star/be apart of Hernandez's career so they will spend more money to do that. So on and so on

The Dawson I bought has a print run of 199, so it’s not like there’s a million of those floating around either. And the odds that Hernandez will have a career that can even compare to Dawson’s are very low, so if given the choice I’d rather have the Dawson for much less. But I get the other point of view.

[Stat Monsters]

Originally Posted by brjohnston1985

This morning, I bought a Fergie Jenkins and an Andre Dawson auto and spent a total of $30. Two HOF certified autos for $30. Meanwhile, some people are spending hundreds and even thousands on cards of totally unproven prospects on a daily basis.

Does this seem crazy to anyone else? And no I’m not a newbie; I’ve been collecting for over 30 years. I guess after all this time it still doesn’t make much sense to me but it does make me grateful that this hobby can still be affordable for people like me!

'm from your camp in this regard.

Why gamble on a prospect touted to be "The Next...." (Cal Ripken Jr., Frank Thomas, etc.) when you can actually get the equal to (a Cal Ripken RC or Auto isn't that expensive!) or better than HOF player that's proven, established and enshrined into history

But, the market dictates and collectors love "The next big thing" it's about the gamble and as men do when evaluating women, divorcing, cheating, etc. - - Look for something new, sexy, young, dangerous and seductive

Right now, the past few rookies like Bobby Witt Jr, Julio Rodriguez, and Wander Franco aren't lighting up the stat sheets as projected and living up to the advance billing and price tags of the past 2 years.

It's what makes this hobby fun and interesting. I bought into the Kyle Lewis rookie year hype and now that guy isn't worth much of anything and 'tho he's young, spec investors written him off after some bad years and moved on to the next young thing.

The good thing as spec investing in HOF'ers are they're aged and are closer to death (when cards sell with resurgence of interest and increased value for a temporary price surge), especially the autographed cards because once deceased (of course) athletes can't sign (unless Leaf, Panini or Topps has a roll of pre-signed stickers in inventory)

[1800gambler]

The problem with this question is those HoF’ers don’t have a Bowman 1st/Chrome/flagship rookie autograph or serial #ed base parallels. They only have the regular a Topps card. No numbering or autograph = There’s no tangible scarcity (besides a pop count, I guess.) If they had an equivalent card and prices were still so different, then I’d agree with the sentiment behind this argument. I think it’d be different though, I think people would be paying big bucks for an orange chrome /25 rookie autograph or base parallel if they existed.

Also retired player modern card autographs aren’t comparable to a rookie auto. The rookie/1st designation is the draw. A guy signing 2023 cards when he retired in 98 and has been signing 1k+ cards a year for the last 15 years doesn’t carry the same gravitas

[hermanotarjeta]

Comparing an Andre Dawson or Fergie Jenkins rookie card to a first bowman auto card may be more appropriate- each card portrays a player’s first appearance in a card set in an mlb uniform. Keeping the equivalent grade population to bowman auto print run may give you a better assessment of relative value.

[fabiani12333]

The way I look at it is prospect cards are lottery tickets. That's the type of gambling being done. There might be the next Mike Trout or Albert Pujols in the mix. There are also some future stars and hall of famers as well.

Post-retirement Hall of Famer cards are generally cheap looking and watered down. Though some can be high quality and nice to look at. They are more collectable due to the nostalgia and fame those type of players bring.

[brjohnston1985]

Originally Posted by 1800gambler

The problem with this question is those HoF’ers don’t have a Bowman 1st/Chrome/flagship rookie autograph or serial #ed base parallels. They only have the regular a Topps card. No numbering or autograph = There’s no tangible scarcity (besides a pop count, I guess.) If they had an equivalent card and prices were still so different, then I’d agree with the sentiment behind this argument. I think it’d be different though, I think people would be paying big bucks for an orange chrome /25 rookie autograph or base parallel if they existed.

Also retired player autograph modern autographs aren’t comparable to a rookie auto. The rookie/1st designation is the draw. A guy signing 2023 cards when he retired in 98 and has been signing 1k cards a year for the last 15 years doesn’t carry the same gravitas

Yes, you are right. But again, how many of these prospects that people are spending so much money on will become Hall of Famers? Many won’t even reach the majors. My preference is to not spend tons of money on players that are no sure thing but if other people want to do that and they enjoy it, then more power to them.