Is Dan Marino overrated?

[oplum29]

Originally Posted by dolphinsdude

Teams that won Superbowls back then had one thing in common, they all had an amazing defense. Dolphins had a top defense in '82 and '83 but by '85 it was in decline. Marino took those late 80's teams with no defense and no running game and kept them in most games with only the Marks brothers to work with.

His best chance to get back to the Superbowl was from 1993-1995 with the additions of Irving Fryar, Keith Jackson, and Keith Byars. He missed most of '93 and had to get through a Bills team chock full of HOFers and Natron Means and a Charger team who ran for 200 yards against them.

Jimmy gutted the offense to rebuild the defense, meanwhile running the ball at a 3.3 yard per average clip, every game for 3 quarters. By the time the defense was up to par it was to late and too many hits.

I feel bad for people, especially Dolphin fans, who has never seen him play pre-1996. He wasn't mobile, but had an uncanny way of dodging out of sacks in the pocket. Everyone knows about his quick release, but forget that he was a master at reading defenses, and taking advantage of mistakes by opposing secondaries. Not saying he is better than Montana or Brady, just saying Dan Marino is a legend during that era.

good analysis on Miami and Marino.

i think if Jimmy Johnson had more time, he might have been able to turn the Dolphins into a contender, but it was to late in Dan's career by then. he was basically a statue at that point in his career.

"offense wins game, defense wins championships" and Marino never had the defense to win those big playoff games. what's even more amazing is just how good Buffalo was during the same time span, and they couldn't get one SB win, not one.

[norskarv]

Who is Dan Marino?

[marinocollector]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

You don't know what you're talking about. The QB rating system is divided equally amongst comp%, YPC, TD%, and INT%. A perfect rating is 158.3. And 158.3 ÷ 4 = 39.6. So a QB with a max comp% is still only awarded 39.6 point. Keep making stuff up.

If you're going to talk down to someone, make sure you're accurate, the four categories are comp%, YPA, TD%, and INT%.

Math is hard. I understand. So is talking intelligently, so lets talk examples, feel free to read this as slow a you need to.

If a QB goes 25/32 with 240 yards, 2 TD and 1 Int... he has a passer rating of 105.7.

If a QB goes 25/32 with 240 yards, 0 TD and 1 Int... he has a passer rating of 93.2.

If a QB goes 20/32 with 240 yards, 2 TDs and 1 Int... he has a passer rating of 93.2.

So passer rating is saying 5 more random completions is worth the same as 2 touchdowns.

See passer rating is formulated by the 4 categories as stated, but lets look at what that actually means.

A perfect percentage rating is 77.5%. Anything higher is moot.

A perfect YPA is 12.5 ypa. More completions usually means more yards increases YPA. Anything higher than 12.5 YPA is moot.

A perfect TD ratio is 1 per 8.421 attempts. Anything better is moot.

A perfect INT ratio is 0. No INTs means better passer rating, but its not a killer unless tossing 2-3 a game.

So in todays NFL... the easiest stat to increase is completion percentage. As the short game increases and short passes are much more common, you start to see a rise in QB rating. Its not that QBs today are necessarily better, its the offense and the rules are allowing them to be more efficient. And with a stat such as completion percentage that increases not only one column, but has a huge effect on yards per attempt, therefore increasing two columns and is why people started noticing that passer rating is antiquated. They saw the west coast offense and it being integrated throughout the NFL and saw how numbers were being skewed. Thats why QBR was invented.

For future reference, if a system is in place for decades, and suddenly a new system pops up and becomes insanely popular and referenced a lot (think WAR in baseball) its usually because the old system had a flaw in it. So maybe put that into consideration before acting like you know what you're talking about when someone points out a flaw in a system.

[davz13]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

I have always thought Marino was underrated. The fact that he didn't win a Super Bowl leads people to believe he wasn't as good as he really was.

Plus the young'uns don't appreciate how extraordinary his stats were for the time. 5,000 passing yards isn't that big a deal these days but when Marino did it in 1984, not only was he the first, but he would be the only one to do it for 24 years.

Yep yep yep!

[marinocollector]

I also want to point out the total mundane line of
21/32 , 240 yards 1 TDs and 0 Ints is a 98 passer rating.

So if a qb went 345/512 with 3840 yards 20 TDs and 9 Ints, which is ok, but less than stellar in todays NFL, they have a 95.18 rating, which is better than what was consider to be the greatest 2 qbs of the 80s ratings.
So pretty much completion percentage is why guys like Jimmy G, Jared Goff, and Teddy Bridgewater can have higher passer ratings than Dan Marino and Joe Montana.
Heck, if Jalen Hurts completed 2 more passes a game last year for 0 yard gains each time, he'd have a 93+ passer rating instead of 87 and wouldn't even be in the top 5 in completion %

[dolphinsdude]

Originally Posted by oplum29

good analysis on Miami and Marino.

i think if Jimmy Johnson had more time, he might have been able to turn the Dolphins into a contender, but it was to late in Dan's career by then. he was basically a statue at that point in his career.

"offense wins game, defense wins championships" and Marino never had the defense to win those big playoff games. what's even more amazing is just how good Buffalo was during the same time span, and they couldn't get one SB win, not one.

To be fair to Jimmy Johnson, he did draft Yatil Green in the 1st round in 1997 after he fell in the draft. It's just unfortunate the injuries that cost him his NFL career. Meanwhile Mark Clayton and Keith Jackson went on to play with a young Brett Favre and put up nice numbers on a fantastic team.

Shula did somewhat build that defense back up before he retired, but they would always run out of gas in the 4th quarter and against tough offensive lines. One of the reasons Marino had so many 4th quarter comebacks.

The best running back Marino had, skill-wise, was Sammie Smith. He had the power, speed, and moves. Unfortunately he had a knack of fumbling at the goal line and soon lost his confidence.

Dan Marino was an amazing player to watch who kept the team in games they had no business of winning, time and time again.

[dolphinsdude]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

I also want to point out the total mundane line of
21/32 , 240 yards 1 TDs and 0 Ints is a 98 passer rating.

So if a qb went 345/512 with 3840 yards 20 TDs and 9 Ints, which is ok, but less than stellar in todays NFL, they have a 95.18 rating, which is better than what was consider to be the greatest 2 qbs of the 80s ratings.
So pretty much completion percentage is why guys like Jimmy G, Jared Goff, and Teddy Bridgewater can have higher passer ratings than Dan Marino and Joe Montana.
Heck, if Jalen Hurts completed 2 more passes a game last year for 0 yard gains each time, he'd have a 93+ passer rating instead of 87 and wouldn't even be in the top 5 in completion %

Funny how ppl still put stock in that useless stat. Instead of looking at stats, the young-ins should watch the game of old Marino vs young Manning on youtube. It's a classic and must watch for football fans. Unfortunately we live in a time of useless stats and highlight clips with no context.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by norskarv

Who is Dan Marino?

G-O-A-T

[marinocollector]

Originally Posted by dolphinsdude

To be fair to Jimmy Johnson, he did draft Yatil Green in the 1st round in 1997 after he fell in the draft. It's just unfortunate the injuries that cost him his NFL career. Meanwhile Mark Clayton and Keith Jackson went on to play with a young Brett Favre and put up nice numbers on a fantastic team.

Shula did somewhat build that defense back up before he retired, but they would always run out of gas in the 4th quarter and against tough offensive lines. One of the reasons Marino had so many 4th quarter comebacks.

The best running back Marino had, skill-wise, was Sammie Smith. He had the power, speed, and moves. Unfortunately he had a knack of fumbling at the goal line and soon lost his confidence.

Dan Marino was an amazing player to watch who kept the team in games they had no business of winning, time and time again.

Clayton not really... he was done.... Jackson I can agree with in 1996. The fact is neither of those leaving have anything to do with Jimmy J because they were long gone before he came to town. Yatil being hurt was really, really bad. I think that messed up the balance of that whole team. You had Lamar Thomas to stretch the defense.

I always said that the 93 team was Marino's best shot. Coincidentally, the achilles heel to his resume being perfect was his achilles heel. It was the year the Bills were the weakest and they did beat Dallas at home (although on a fluke play with Leon Lett). Mitchell and DeBerg did well that year, but Marino started 4-1 and the others finished 5-6.

Also, for fun... I looked... Marino had a 1000 yard rusher once in his career 1996.. KAJ... but how often did pass happy Dan have a 1000 yd WR? surely often right?
83 - 1 duper
84 - 2 duper clayton
85 - 0
86 - duper clayton
87- 0
88- clayton
89- clayton
90 - 0
91 - duper clayton
93 - fryar
94 - fryar
95- 0
96 - 0
96 - 0
98- mcduffie
99 - tony martin

Just thought it was interesting.

[oldgoldy97]

Tua gonna make everyone forget Dan.


Yes, he will be that bad.

[jplarson]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

So in todays NFL... the easiest stat to increase is completion percentage. As the short game increases and short passes are much more common, you start to see a rise in QB rating. Its not that QBs today are necessarily better, its the offense and the rules are allowing them to be more efficient. And with a stat such as completion percentage that increases not only one column, but has a huge effect on yards per attempt, therefore increasing two columns and is why people started noticing that passer rating is antiquated. They saw the west coast offense and it being integrated throughout the NFL and saw how numbers were being skewed. Thats why QBR was invented.

Enough of your sense making. There's a narrative to tell and your analysis is RUINING it!

[marinocollector]

Originally Posted by jplarson

Enough of your sense making. There's a narrative to tell and your analysis is RUINING it!

You don't know what you're talking about. Im just making this all up.

[dolphinsdude]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

Clayton not really... he was done.... Jackson I can agree with in 1996. The fact is neither of those leaving have anything to do with Jimmy J because they were long gone before he came to town. Yatil being hurt was really, really bad. I think that messed up the balance of that whole team. You had Lamar Thomas to stretch the defense.

I always said that the 93 team was Marino's best shot. Coincidentally, the achilles heel to his resume being perfect was his achilles heel. It was the year the Bills were the weakest and they did beat Dallas at home (although on a fluke play with Leon Lett). Mitchell and DeBerg did well that year, but Marino started 4-1 and the others finished 5-6.

Also, for fun... I looked... Marino had a 1000 yard rusher once in his career 1996.. KAJ... but how often did pass happy Dan have a 1000 yd WR? surely often right?
83 - 1 duper
84 - 2 duper clayton
85 - 0
86 - duper clayton
87- 0
88- clayton
89- clayton
90 - 0
91 - duper clayton
93 - fryar
94 - fryar
95- 0
96 - 0
96 - 0
98- mcduffie
99 - tony martin

Just thought it was interesting.

Crazy to think outside Duper and Clayton, who did not have the longevity, he had Fryar a couple of years and that's it for elite weapons at the WR position.

I think the main difference between Shula and Jimmy was Shula's Dolphins in the 90's was actively pursuing top free agents at their positions (Fryar,Jackson,Byars, and even Eric Green). Jimmy was more focused on the draft and bringing in cheaper free agents (Fred Barnett,Tony Martin,Perriman,Jordan,etc). Not hating on Jimmy, just had a different strategy which was to be expected from a coach going to a new team. Jimmy gave us Zach, Jason, Sam, and Patrick which was a good foundation after Marino retired.

[asujbl]

Nope

Do I need to read this thread? Has anyone made a legit point saying he is?

[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by asujbl

Nope

Do I need to read this thread? Has anyone made a legit point saying he is?

He lost to the sad sack Patriots....AT HOME...in '85/'86.

Yes, overrated.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by BostonNut

He lost to the sad sack Patriots....AT HOME...in '85/'86.

Yes, overrated.

Got it

[Grid]

Originally Posted by norskarv

Who is Dan Marino?

Why is Dan Marino?

[ReggieBush22]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

If you're going to talk down to someone, make sure you're accurate, the four categories are comp%, YPA, TD%, and INT%.

Math is hard. I understand. So is talking intelligently, so lets talk examples, feel free to read this as slow a you need to.

If a QB goes 25/32 with 240 yards, 2 TD and 1 Int... he has a passer rating of 105.7.

If a QB goes 25/32 with 240 yards, 0 TD and 1 Int... he has a passer rating of 93.2.

If a QB goes 20/32 with 240 yards, 2 TDs and 1 Int... he has a passer rating of 93.2.

So passer rating is saying 5 more random completions is worth the same as 2 touchdowns.

See passer rating is formulated by the 4 categories as stated, but lets look at what that actually means.

A perfect percentage rating is 77.5%. Anything higher is moot.

A perfect YPA is 12.5 ypa. More completions usually means more yards increases YPA. Anything higher than 12.5 YPA is moot.

A perfect TD ratio is 1 per 8.421 attempts. Anything better is moot.

A perfect INT ratio is 0. No INTs means better passer rating, but its not a killer unless tossing 2-3 a game.

So in todays NFL... the easiest stat to increase is completion percentage. As the short game increases and short passes are much more common, you start to see a rise in QB rating. Its not that QBs today are necessarily better, its the offense and the rules are allowing them to be more efficient. And with a stat such as completion percentage that increases not only one column, but has a huge effect on yards per attempt, therefore increasing two columns and is why people started noticing that passer rating is antiquated. They saw the west coast offense and it being integrated throughout the NFL and saw how numbers were being skewed. Thats why QBR was invented.

For future reference, if a system is in place for decades, and suddenly a new system pops up and becomes insanely popular and referenced a lot (think WAR in baseball) its usually because the old system had a flaw in it. So maybe put that into consideration before acting like you know what you're talking about when someone points out a flaw in a system.

I wasn't trying to offend you, i was just taken back by your claim that if a QB has a great completion %, ones QB rating would automatically be near 90. And I was just simply stating the fact that comp% only accounts for 1/4th of the rating system, which is 39.6 out of 158.3.

But yeah, given today's emphasis on the short passing game, comp% have increased. And to a certain extent, higher comp% does mean lower INT%, which means greater rating. But at the same time, it also means lower TD% and lower YPA %.

I am mostly sticking with the numbers. You were bringing up all these scenarios, which is subjective.

[dfr52]

Originally Posted by marinocollector

Clayton not really... he was done.... Jackson I can agree with in 1996. The fact is neither of those leaving have anything to do with Jimmy J because they were long gone before he came to town. Yatil being hurt was really, really bad. I think that messed up the balance of that whole team. You had Lamar Thomas to stretch the defense.

I always said that the 93 team was Marino's best shot. Coincidentally, the achilles heel to his resume being perfect was his achilles heel. It was the year the Bills were the weakest and they did beat Dallas at home (although on a fluke play with Leon Lett). Mitchell and DeBerg did well that year, but Marino started 4-1 and the others finished 5-6.

Also, for fun... I looked... Marino had a 1000 yard rusher once in his career 1996.. KAJ... but how often did pass happy Dan have a 1000 yd WR? surely often right?
83 - 1 duper
84 - 2 duper clayton
85 - 0
86 - duper clayton
87- 0
88- clayton
89- clayton
90 - 0
91 - duper clayton
93 - fryar
94 - fryar
95- 0
96 - 0
96 - 0
98- mcduffie
99 - tony martin

Just thought it was interesting.

Very surprising stats.

[JWBlue]

(delete)

[marinocollector]

Originally Posted by ReggieBush22

I wasn't trying to offend you, i was just taken back by your claim that if a QB has a great completion %, ones QB rating would automatically be near 90. And I was just simply stating the fact that comp% only accounts for 1/4th of the rating system, which is 39.6 out of 158.3.

But yeah, given today's emphasis on the short passing game, comp% have increased. And to a certain extent, higher comp% does mean lower INT%, which means greater rating. But at the same time, it also means lower TD% and lower YPA %.

I am mostly sticking with the numbers. You were bringing up all these scenarios, which is subjective.

Well, you were rude, and ignorant and flat out wrong while accusing me of me being wrong. That’s offensive behavior. Don’t back up and act shocked that you offended someone else with your ignorance.
Nothing is subjective about my examples. Go to a qb rating calculator. It’s 100% fact. The current model of QB rating is heavily favored by completion percentage.
You’re clearly not looking into the numbers at all. You have a small portion of the information and stating, because of this small portion, you know what it actually creates. What you’re doing is theoretical math, while I am using real world math and the implications of why completion percentages skews the numbers.
Yes each portion of that rating is maxed out by the 39.6. But how each portion of figured out to create that 39.6 is very different.
I’m not going to waste much time with factual examples since you’ll just say it’s subjective without actually looking at the numbers. The YPA category and the TD ratio catergory is very hard to max out. Int ratio and completion percentage is not. So if one has 0 INTs and 65% completion percentage… they have a 68.8 of the possible 79.2. What this means… is that QB only have to average 8.1 yards per attempt to have a QB rating of 90.
So once again… 13/20 and 162 yards. Qb rating of 90.
Also, the more completions typically means more total yards which increases yards per attempt. That’s just the numbers. I don’t know how you could think otherwise. It’s very unlikely that a set of pass completions equate to zero or negative yardage.
And just to show how completion percentage effects todays NFL, 19 QBs had completions percentages 65 and above. 19 QBs had ratings of 90 and above.
1984? 1 QB had a completion percentage above 65. 4 QBs had ratings above 90. The only QB to have a completion percentage above 65 and as not one, mainly because his TD/INT ratio was 1.1:1

[jhssketchcards]

He’s Aaron Rodgers without a SB ring.


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[rms13]

If you put 1984 Marino on this year's Dolphins he'd throw for 8000 yards and 120 TDs

[JRX]

At the time Marino threw for 5k yards, there had only been 10 seasons of 4k yards. Last year there were 10 qbs to exceed 4k. Top 50 all time in 1984 was 3396. Last year 19, QBs exceeded that. Today there have been 208 seasons of 4k yards. There are now 14 5k yard seasons and only 1 was before 2011, Marino. His numbers were Babe Ruth like in his time.

[hxcmilkshake]

Originally Posted by JRX

At the time Marino threw for 5k yards, there had only been 10 seasons of 4k yards. Last year there were 10 qbs to exceed 4k. Top 50 all time in 1984 was 3396. Last year 19, QBs exceeded that. Today there have been 208 seasons of 4k yards. There are now 14 5k yard seasons and only 1 was before 2011, Marino. His numbers were Babe Ruth like in his time.

Or, Aaron Judge-like!

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