Bubble fatigue?

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by RedMike

Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

This is easy to say, hard to do but been proven time and time again.

Yup. I'm slowly picking up some deals here and there for similar prices to last summer. Definitely not seeing the prices or volume from Jan/Fed but stuff is still moving, just not at the 10x prices from the winter.

[k13]

Originally Posted by jzx1103

Seems to me like it's mainly Basketball card market that's currently crashing. I'm looking up Baseball and Football for example. 2005 Topps and Topps Chrome Aaron Rodgers Rc PSA 9 is still similar price today vs 3 months ago. Same goes for 2011 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout Rc PSA 9. Now it does look like more Ultra Modern stuff are down in all sports (but even then it's more so in BK than other sports), That has more to do with the super high print run than anything else and that's a bubble in itself. But in Basketball literally everything other than Ultra Rare stuff are down 50% or more. I still think it's more of a seasonal thing with BK then entire Sports card market crashing in general. These days I'm getting almost no interest in any of my Basketball listings unless it's offers significantly lower than my listing price. But still sold my Baseball and FB stuff fairly easily for my asking price. I sold my multiples of 2002 Topps Chrome Tom Brady Base card PSA 8s and 9s fairly easily just this past week (not even a Rookie card, just first year Topps Chrome base card). and having 3 people fighting over my Brady Topps Chrome Refractor, It's actually me that's reluctant to sell the card. I sold a 2011 Bowman Chrome Refractor Mike Trout PSA 10 for $3800 back in Jan (going price at the time), that card is actually up and consistently selling for $5k these days. I'm wondering if BK cards right now is just in the same state as September thru November 2020. Where everything was down significantly from July and August 2020 prices, and eventually bounced back up in December.

https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=NEZ8k1qFnFm6wvJVxYLu
https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=j6DsmX17VJfHc7afoO5w
https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=QBWAiMZPAbef6gZAW9r2
https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=RUJBIFNToIF0FXS5LryI

Trout, Giffey, Jeter, Brady, Gretzky, etc.

All those are down too.

Some modern hockey/soccer is not down and a few cards here and there.
But overall everything is down.

[k13]

Originally Posted by Gem10collection

I find it interesting that the market started dipping right around the time PSA closed its doors. Could we see the market rise once those doors open again?

The hobby ecosystem is severely constipated. Once fixed, I think we see another leg up in both activity and prices. The fringe player doesn't like waiting 4 to 8 weeks for their cards to be uploaded to pwcc, 4 to 8 weeks for their cards to be processed or shipped from comc, 4 to 8 months for their cards to be graded at 4 to 8 times prices from just a year ago. It might take another 4 to 8 months, but the hobby ecosystem will be scaled up and made efficient again.

How are you going to fix that?

PSA will be slower than ever and more expansive than ever.
It won't be worthwhile to grade 99% of cards.

Hopefully they lose a lot of revenue in the long run.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by k13

https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=NEZ8k1qFnFm6wvJVxYLu
https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=j6DsmX17VJfHc7afoO5w
https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=QBWAiMZPAbef6gZAW9r2
https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=RUJBIFNToIF0FXS5LryI

Trout, Giffey, Jeter, Brady, Gretzky, etc.

All those are down too.

Some modern hockey/soccer is not down and a few cards here and there.
But overall everything is down.

What does the 1 year chart look like on these? Thanks

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

What does the 1 year chart look like on these? Thanks

Who cares?

If the DOW lost 20% today nobody is going to go “zoom out, you’re still up from a year ago”.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Who cares?

If the DOW lost 20% today nobody is going to go “zoom out, you’re still up from a year ago”.

Genuinely curious. I don't follow trends like this in the card market so found the website interesting.

And regardless of what the stock market does in a single day or month, I always like to zoom in and out when looking. I wasn't trying to make a point which it sounds like you assumed I was.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

Genuinely curious. I don't follow trends like this in the card market so found the website interesting.

And regardless of what the stock market does in a single day or month, I always like to zoom in and out when looking. I wasn't trying to make a point which it sounds like you assumed I was.

My bad. Can’t tell tone and I’m just so used to the “who cares, zoom out” responses.

I definitely assumed and I apologize.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

My bad. Can’t tell tone and I’m just so used to the “who cares, zoom out” responses.

I definitely assumed and I apologize.

No worries. If people are truly looking at cards as investments, charts like this could be interesting to follow, especially if they act like the markets we are familiar with. I think it looks like a neat idea.

[k13]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

What does the 1 year chart look like on these? Thanks

It only lets you see 3 months for free.

[jgrann13]

Griffey UD and Jeter SP and Kobe Topps and Lebron Topps never deserved to have the jump they had .

Real collectors know the cards with true long term sustainability. Go hop onto the TOP 5 thread and you will not see those being shown.

Sometimes you get steals. It happens in all markets. We all have had them. Auctions ending at bad times. Other things going on that night. Who knows but anyone that bought into Giannis base prizms or Kobe topps as investment tools are going to be left holding the bag

If you picked up some nice rare inserts or refractors or rare rookies, you are fine. Just ride the wave. The summer will be and always has been down for NBA.
Remember the NBA has been in our face from the Bubble all the way to today. Never has one sport went a full calendar year without a real break.

[Derekbauer]

Originally Posted by jgrann13

Griffey UD and Jeter SP and Kobe Topps and Lebron Topps never deserved to have the jump they had .

Real collectors know the cards with true long term sustainability. Go hop onto the TOP 5 thread and you will not see those being shown.

Sometimes you get steals. It happens in all markets. We all have had them. Auctions ending at bad times. Other things going on that night. Who knows but anyone that bought into Giannis base prizms or Kobe topps as investment tools are going to be left holding the bag

If you picked up some nice rare inserts or refractors or rare rookies, you are fine. Just ride the wave. The summer will be and always has been down for NBA.
Remember the NBA has been in our face from the Bubble all the way to today. Never has one sport went a full calendar year without a real break.

Agreed.

That top 5 thread is pretty sweet as well!

[Tim]

Originally Posted by k13

[url]
But overall everything is down.

This is false. Anyone can find outliers. The PP was spot on. Basketball is getting crushed right now due to the reasons stated previously by many. (And underperformance from either rookies or teams from the 17, 18 and 19 classes.)

But bb is very strong. Are the prospects so hot in Jan still bringing in the same coin? No. But my sealed wax sales, dead in basketball, are thriving in baseball. And the players who are performing are selling.

And non-sports has been exceptional with no slowdown.

There is no question that basketball is getting hammered the worst and it's not even close. (I don't do football, soccer or hockey.)

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by k13

Some modern hockey/soccer is not down and a few cards here and there.

Originally Posted by k13

But overall everything is down.

So, which is it? LOL

[Randallk34]

It's my fault guys. I just got my first ever PSA sub back after waiting 7+ months so of course the prices are down.

Got a Luka panini prizm psa 10 and it's down $300-$400 now

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Tim

This is false. Anyone can find outliers. The PP was spot on. Basketball is getting crushed right now due to the reasons stated previously by many. (And underperformance from either rookies or teams from the 17, 18 and 19 classes.)

But bb is very strong. Are the prospects so hot in Jan still bringing in the same coin? No. But my sealed wax sales, dead in basketball, are thriving in baseball. And the players who are performing are selling.

And non-sports has been exceptional with no slowdown.

There is no question that basketball is getting hammered the worst and it's not even close. (I don't do football, soccer or hockey.)

It has nothing to do with basketball, or X or Y player (although there is definitely correlation). It is all cards that jumped too high too fast coming back to earth. A lot of things that I buy/collect have been relatively stable while slabbed retail and “GOAT” cards have wildly swung up and down.

[rohara99]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

It is all cards that jumped too high too fast coming back to earth.

Brian Grey explained it really well a couple weeks ago… when these cards go up in price you need multiple levels/dips/new floors for people who don’t believe in the card to dump their copies. And when cards 3, 4 or 5x in a month that can’t happen and then everyone tries to dump their copy at the same damn time causing a huge correction or drop. Dips are healthy. And frankly a slower rise in value is way more healthy for the card market.

[k13]

Lebrone chrome refractor only has a pop of 170 something in psa 10....

https://www.cardladder.com/card?id=1Gx4K1yHaI4yG8nszTmT

[fenwaykid]

Originally Posted by rohara99

Brian Grey explained it really well a couple weeks ago… when these cards go up in price you need multiple levels/dips/new floors for people who don’t believe in the card to dump their copies. And when cards 3, 4 or 5x in a month that can’t happen and then everyone tries to dump their copy at the same damn time causing a huge correction or drop. Dips are healthy. And frankly a slower rise in value is way more healthy for the card market.

He also said make sure to keep some dry powder on the sidelines in May just before the most epic price increase we’ve very seen. Good advice!

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by Diver757

Aim small, miss small. A good Mel Gibson life lesson.

^^^Underrated post^^^


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by k13

Set/player/true collectors are almost none existent.

When is the last time you've heard of someone putting together a prizm set....

Umm, no. What are you saying? All those collectors still exist. They might avoid the drivel that is now these forums, and their relative abundance may be lower with all the focus of the hobby shifting to the money that can be made (or lost) on it. But they're still collecting and enjoying the hobby, maybe even more now since things are becoming affordable again.

I can share with you a ton of instagram accounts of set/player/true collectors.

[UCLAboy777]

Some vintage still selling higher than December 2020. Kareem rookie I bought is still selling much higher than what I bought for

[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by UCLAboy777

Some vintage still selling higher than December 2020. Kareem rookie I bought is still selling much higher than what I bought for

Most cards are still selling higher than December 2020, it tanked from the ridiculous February prices. Kobe's Topps Rc completely crashed the PSA 9 is currently down to $600 to $700. But thats still higher than Decembers $500 price. Kobe Topps Chrome PSA 9 is still $4500, it was around $3.5k early December. I have a feeling the absolute floor will be October 2020 prices. There's a reason why it never went below that last Sept/Oct. Its was a strong support at those prices. I don't think its ever going back to Pre-Covid (knock on wood lol)

[sportsyard]

I think long term this is healthy for the industry. The pace from Feb actually was a detriment.

Its still hard to figure things out.

I believe that Steph Curry's Exquisite Auto RC is very undervalued. Exquisite in general has held up very well in the downturn. What that being said, in the next 6 months do I see the card going up, not at all. Im I willing to buy in and get a couple, maybe. Steph is relevant and GST could be interesting next year with Klay back. Klay could also take shots away from Steph. With Steph being a free agent in 2022, could he go to LA, maybe... that's a catalyst for a major bump, but at least a catalyst.

I've always thought Kobe's EX RC was undervalued. While it may be undervalued, is there any catalyst that could cause a movement upwards? I don't see it. There have been some amazing opportunities on the card lately... but if there is no catalyst for upside coming, its all for not to buy it.

[fenwaykid]

Originally Posted by sportsyard

I think long term this is really healthy for the industry. The pace from Feb actually was a detriment.

Im personally having a hard time convincing myself on certain things. For example, I believe that Steph Curry's Exquisite Auto RC is undervalued. Exquisite in general has held up very well in the downturn. What that being said, in the next 6 months do I see the card going up, not at all.

I've always thought Kobe's EX RC was undervalued. While it may be undervalued, is there any catalyst that could cause a movement upwards? I don't see it. There have been some amazing opportunities on the card lately... but if there is no catalyst for upside coming, its all for not to buy it.

Kobe is 100% overvalued across the board. Those that were in the hobby will tell you before his death there was very little excitement or demand for Kobe cards. The explosion of his stuff, in my opinion, makes it a poor investment going forward.

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by fenwaykid

Kobe is 100% overvalued across the board. Those that were in the hobby will tell you before his death there was very little excitement or demand for Kobe cards. The explosion of his stuff, in my opinion, makes it a poor investment going forward.

I can totally see that. what do you think on his auto's though? Kobe is the only player I've actually collected personally in the last two years, which has been fun. I love the Flair 0 and Im constantly trying to convince myself there is value there... but again I don't see the catalyst outside of the documentary. Values like you noted are already high

I've made most of my returns on Jordan cards this year. Im constantly telling myself to watch out... prices keep dropping and it seems like there is "value". But is there really? Hard to say, the whole Jordan market would only be driven higher at this point through a massive comp for a PSA 10 86 at auction.

you have to be a card "picker" like a stock picker in this environment. Safest bets are still low pop vintage I think. Biggest mistake I continue to make is thinking this is easy and February is normal. Betting on long term this is just so much smarter and safer.