Official Tom Brady RC Price Tracker

[pcptrade]

Ken Goldin posted this in basketball forum....

"Ok, now I need to respond. “Goldin” is not flooding the market, collectors are...
The Brady card sold in an 8.5/10 for $237,000 on dec 7 2020.
It then magically sells privately in a lessor grade of 8.0 for $1.3 million, then in an 8.5/9 at lelands does 2.25. Out of the 100 printed , likely 30 were shipped to auction houses or consignment dealers to be sold...flooding the market on what still is the ultimate football card. But each time a limited card like that sells it takes out a perspective buyer from the next sale."

[jasonm2121]

So many. I will keep mine.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

So many. I will keep mine.

If Ken's estimate is true (30 copies), there will be more to flood the market in the next few months. Have to see if the demand (buyer pool) is as strong as the supply to prevent the prices from declining further.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Rare and high end sought after cards drop less during market corrections imo. Most of the high end buyers spending 6 to 7 figures are not going to panic sell. I would assume most of them are buying for long term. I am consolidating 90% of my collection by selling low to mid end cards to get cost neutral on my high end cards. I am also moving a couple of high end Lebrons (not the exquisite RPA and TC Gold Refractor) with the intention of buying a vacation home but I am also tempted to reinvest that in a Brady Champ Ticket.

This is why to invest smartly in players IMO. Sure, a Chrome rookie, or Metal rookie are nice cards. But there are tons of those in theory compared to the refractors, the SPA numbered rookie, etc. For modern players like Mahomes, I could see having Prizm/Optic pale in comparison to their numbered parallels.

I debated selling my BC rookie after the Super Bowl, and honestly should have as it peaked and I could've made a couple thousand after buying one back. That was an extremely limited time they were selling for $8k+ though, and dipped to below $6k for a short time, before settling back up to $6k+ it seems now. This is for a 9.

It seems like prices aren't going below what they were pre Super Bowl win, I haven't researched it in full though. I do think some price drops have been because of a flood of the market.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Zauron

This is why to invest smartly in players IMO. Sure, a Chrome rookie, or Metal rookie are nice cards. But there are tons of those in theory compared to the refractors, the SPA numbered rookie, etc. For modern players like Mahomes, I could see having Prizm/Optic pale in comparison to their numbered parallels.

I debated selling my BC rookie after the Super Bowl, and honestly should have as it peaked and I could've made a couple thousand after buying one back. That was an extremely limited time they were selling for $8k+ though, and dipped to below $6k for a short time, before settling back up to $6k+ it seems now. This is for a 9.

It seems like prices aren't going below what they were pre Super Bowl win, I haven't researched it in full though. I do think some price drops have been because of a flood of the market.

The common cards drop more compared to rare cards during a market correction but they also go up more percentagewise compared to rare cards in an upward trending market.

[Brian48]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

If Ken's estimate is true (30 copies), there will be more to flood the market in the next few months. Have to see if the demand (buyer pool) is as strong as the supply to prevent the prices from declining further.

Sux. Should have posted mine up two months ago. Oh well. Guess I'll have to hold on to it for another year.

[Kingofkings1281]

Originally Posted by Brian48

Sux. Should have posted mine up two months ago. Oh well. Guess I'll have to hold on to it for another year.

Let the market flood for now. I have no problem holding for another year or two and selling when it has dried up.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by Kingofkings1281

Let the market flood for now. I have no problem holding for another year or two and selling when it has dried up.

Agree, except potential cap gains disasters coming

[Kingofkings1281]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

Agree, except potential cap gains disasters coming

I keep forgetting about that. I assume that’s part of why so many are selling at the moment.

[powerwh33ls]

Originally Posted by Brian48

Sux. Should have posted mine up two months ago. Oh well. Guess I'll have to hold on to it for another year.

I wish I had your problems lol


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[Hellcat]

Originally Posted by Brian48

Sux. Should have posted mine up two months ago. Oh well. Guess I'll have to hold on to it for another year.

Probably for the better however you’re understating the value of your copy being PSA graded. Again they just don’t hit the market there are roughly 10 slabbed so you would get a nice premium if you sold now. There are whales waiting for PSA slabs they don’t want to mess with having PSA look at their BGS copy after dropping a million plus then have to worry it gets the dreaded min/sz requirement.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by Kingofkings1281

I keep forgetting about that. I assume that’s part of why so many are selling at the moment.

I think that is a big part of it, seems almost certain to happen.

Originally Posted by Hellcat

Probably for the better however you’re understating the value of your copy being PSA graded. Again they just don’t hit the market there are roughly 10 slabbed so you would get a nice premium if you sold now. There are whales waiting for PSA slabs they don’t want to mess with having PSA look at their BGS copy after dropping a million plus then have to worry it gets the dreaded min/sz requirement.

I think those with a PSA are fine, there has not been one sold yet, and with the pop numbers being what they are, a premium will always be big on the ones we have.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Zauron

This is why to invest smartly in players IMO. Sure, a Chrome rookie, or Metal rookie are nice cards. But there are tons of those in theory compared to the refractors, the SPA numbered rookie, etc. For modern players like Mahomes, I could see having Prizm/Optic pale in comparison to their numbered parallels.

I debated selling my BC rookie after the Super Bowl, and honestly should have as it peaked and I could've made a couple thousand after buying one back. That was an extremely limited time they were selling for $8k+ though, and dipped to below $6k for a short time, before settling back up to $6k+ it seems now. This is for a 9.

It seems like prices aren't going below what they were pre Super Bowl win, I haven't researched it in full though. I do think some price drops have been because of a flood of the market.

I think the base BC is a great card to have. It has a pedigree like few others. it is the only Brady Chrome rookie and that means a lot. if you do decide to sell, it seems around the documentary may be a good time. i would imagine they will be on an up swing at that time.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by Hellcat

Probably for the better however you’re understating the value of your copy being PSA graded. Again they just don’t hit the market there are roughly 10 slabbed so you would get a nice premium if you sold now. There are whales waiting for PSA slabs they don’t want to mess with having PSA look at their BGS copy after dropping a million plus then have to worry it gets the dreaded min/sz requirement.

Yes, PSA carries a premium but auto grade is also important. If I am spending 1 million plus on a card, I want to make sure the auto has a grade of 10. There is a good chance that some champ tickets with streaky auto were sent to PSA because BGS will not give you an option of not to grade Auto unlike PSA. There are lot of Mahomes autographed RC's in PSA slabs with streaky or smudged autos and they were sent to PSA for a reason because BGS would given them an auto grade of 9. I tend to stay away from such cards but that is just my personal preference.

[Brian48]

How the heck do you grade an auto anyway. The criteria have always been a little vague. I've yet to see a sig lower than a 9. Here's the one on my Champ Tix.

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by Brian48

How the heck do you grade an auto anyway. The criteria have always been a little vague. I've yet to see a sig lower than a 9. Here's the one on my Champ Tix.

Looks good to me!

[Brian48]

Heck. 99% of them look good to me as well. Unless something is blatantly obvious (i.e. streaking, smearing, etc..), I just don't know what they're looking for. I've looked a 9s and 10s and to honest, they both looked fine to me. Sigs are unique and will vary from card to card, that's what makes them great so I just don't get it.

[jgb1219]

Originally Posted by Brian48

Heck. 99% of them look good to me as well. Unless something is blatantly obvious (i.e. streaking, smearing, etc..), I just don't know what they're looking for. I've looked a 9s and 10s and to honest, they both looked fine to me. Sigs are unique and will vary from card to card, that's what makes them great so I just don't get it.

Completely agree. As long as legible and authentic, that's what really matters. Who cares otherwise? The original copy of the Declaration of Independence shouldn't be worth less because BGS gives some of the autographs a 9.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by jgb1219

Completely agree. As long as legible and authentic, that's what really matters. Who cares otherwise? The original copy of the Declaration of Independence shouldn't be worth less because BGS gives some of the autographs a 9.

Not all declaration of independence original copies fetch the same price at an auction. Some of them sell for less depending on the condition, which can include the Autographs. Similarly, an Einstein letter or book with a smudged or streaky auto sells for less at an auction. Same is true in sports cards even if it is rare (NT RPA's, Exquisite RPA's. BC Prospect Autos, Contenders auto etc)

Originally Posted by Brian48

How the heck do you grade an auto anyway. The criteria have always been a little vague. I've yet to see a sig lower than a 9. Here's the one on my Champ Tix.

Yours looks good to me.

[jasonm2121]

Looks fine to me, I swear sometimes a grader will grade the auto on how a player actually signs, versus the signature itself (fades, dots, smudges etc). I never know what they are looking for. I feel like the Champ Ticket signatures are much bolder than the base Tickets.

[jgb1219]

[QUOTE=pcptrade;17264213]Not all declaration of independence original copies fetch the same price at an auction. Some of them sell for less depending on the condition, which can include the Autographs. Similarly, an Einstein letter or book with a smudged or streaky auto sells for less at an auction. Same is true in sports cards even if it is rare (NT RPA's, Exquisite RPA's. BC Prospect Autos, Contenders auto etc)

For sure. I should have been more clear: if the autograph is smudged or has a major defect (streaky), then value should be impacted accordingly. In the case of BGS, the differences between a 9 or 10 auto grade appear fairly arbitrary and inconsistent (esp among Brady Contenders), so shouldn't have a material impact on market pricing IMHO.

[jcard71]

Originally Posted by Zauron

This is why to invest smartly in players IMO. Sure, a Chrome rookie, or Metal rookie are nice cards. But there are tons of those in theory compared to the refractors, the SPA numbered rookie, etc. For modern players like Mahomes, I could see having Prizm/Optic pale in comparison to their numbered parallels.

I debated selling my BC rookie after the Super Bowl, and honestly should have as it peaked and I could've made a couple thousand after buying one back. That was an extremely limited time they were selling for $8k+ though, and dipped to below $6k for a short time, before settling back up to $6k+ it seems now. This is for a 9.

It seems like prices aren't going below what they were pre Super Bowl win, I haven't researched it in full though. I do think some price drops have been because of a flood of the market.

I sold my Brady Chrome PSA 9 FOR $8500 a day after the SB that I bought years ago for $800 and put the money into more of his serial #’d rookies. I know people love the BC, but I feel the #’d rookies are going to be more valuable.

[daveyc1]

I think BC is a great one to have, but I am really surprised that like you said, some of his serial numbered rookies haven't shot up.

Specifically, the leaf limited. full patriots uniform and very limited at 350 copies. I cant believe it hasn't gone way up yet.

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Yes, PSA carries a premium but auto grade is also important. If I am spending 1 million plus on a card, I want to make sure the auto has a grade of 10. There is a good chance that some champ tickets with streaky auto were sent to PSA because BGS will not give you an option of not to grade Auto unlike PSA. There are lot of Mahomes autographed RC's in PSA slabs with streaky or smudged autos and they were sent to PSA for a reason because BGS would given them an auto grade of 9. I tend to stay away from such cards but that is just my personal preference.

I have not seen this to be true on the CT. The pen used looks like it has a thicker and bolder signature, versus the base Ticket. Not saying all are, but mine does not have auto grade and it is very nice.

[jcard71]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I think BC is a great one to have, but I am really surprised that like you said, some of his serial numbered rookies haven't shot up.

Specifically, the leaf limited. full patriots uniform and very limited at 350 copies. I cant believe it hasn't gone way up yet.

I agree. I think as they’re put away in PC’S, you’ll see the prices shoot up when they come up for sale.