Jordan Star rookie question

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by oldschoolball

PWCC …. whether you love them or not, when it comes to cardboard, they are THE most prolific presence on eBay. There is zero debate about that (sorry Rick). If anything, they have always been an excellent barometer of “supply” in the marketplace. To their hardcore following, PWCC is “the” marketplace (the DJIA, if you will).

In looking through their latest mega auction, I thought this was a VERY telling stat that reflects the true rarity of Jordan’s 1984 Star XRC 101 that should not go unnoticed to those collectors, investors, speculators, dreamers, haters, etc… or anyone interested in MJ’s 1984 Star and/or 1986 Fleer.


Current PWCC March 2021 Auction

Number of 1986 Fleer #57 RC listed by PWCC ........ 30 available

https://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_odk...57%22&_sacat=0



Number of 1984 Star #101 XRC listed by PWCC ........ 1 available

https://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_odk...01%22&_sacat=0


Now you can question PWCC’s prices realized or allegations of what stuff did or did not sell for, fair enough. But again, I am only talking about “supply” which even PWCC, Brent or their consignors/bidders/shillers/renegers/flippers can not control.

30 : 1

This is exactly what Ive been talking about. I think the growth of this card has been somewhat organic, just because of the numbers. Once everything cools off, it will be interesting to see what happens next.

[rj.cataldo]

Originally Posted by Diana1984

I agree. However this card has seen tremendous growth in the past 2 months. And this was bound to happen. The 7.5 that was bought for $42K looks like the peak. In the long term that person will be fine, but seeing another 7.5 sell for $29K has to sting. I think the lower grades will start seeing this hit more than the higher ones. It will be interesting to see what this 8.5 goes for. And if the higher grades will experience something similar.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-85-Sta...T/143973333986

This needs to happen things dont just skyrocket into perpetuity. Im hoping I can pick up a lower grade soon. Long term this card is an excellent buy based on the numbers.

Agree. Patience is warranted. There might be little spikes here and there but I suspect you’d be able to get one later in the year, perhaps off-season, at a lower price.

The cards were about 1/5 of what they are today, and while I agree they are/were under appreciated the rise was so rapid pullback is natural.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Diana1984]

I know there is a big difference between a 7.5 and 8.5, but this is shocking. This 8.5 is at $62K with still over a week to go! I figures the lower grades would cool off like the 7.5 at $29K last night. But, wow! Looks like 8.5 will sell for a new record.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-85-Sta...8AAOSwM65gSA4A

[Bulls90s]

Suspicious activity...Swindlers just want 101 stay hot.. they're so greedy. It'll be interesting how much grade 6 goes for.

[EJKaufman]

Originally Posted by Diana1984

I know there is a big difference between a 7.5 and 8.5, but this is shocking. This 8.5 is at $62K with still over a week to go! I figures the lower grades would cool off like the 7.5 at $29K last night. But, wow! Looks like 8.5 will sell for a new record.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-85-Sta...8AAOSwM65gSA4A

The card is already up to $68,600 now with 8 days and 20 hours left and looks like it will for sure hit $100k plus. It's on fire! If you look at my post in this thread from 3/1 I predicted $80-90k range for the next BGS 8.5 sale but this looks like it will definitely outdo that!

I'm not even crazy about this card as if you view the high resolution images on the PWCC website the corners and edges are not that nice. I think the card could easily have received an 8.5 edges grade like it did for the corners. The corners are weak. I think the 9 edges was generous. It's a nice 8.5 though but not a top notch copy.

Like you said, Diana, it seems the buyers with money will want a BGS 8/8.5 and these two grades should have huge jumps based on the recent Heritage BGS 9 and Goldin PSA 8 sales but it seems that the 7.5's and below are lagging for now. However, if the 8.5's start going for $100K and the 8's start going for $70-80k then the gain will eventually trickle down to the 7.5 too. I think if you got that 7.5 last night for $29k that you would probably be up 40-50% on your purchase very soon, like maybe by the end of March! That's why I was pushing you to snipe it at 30k, which surprisingly would have worked!

I'm really happy I picked up a top notch copy of a BGS 8 on Feb 26, just one day prior to the BGS 9 sale at Heritage for $192k. I was trying to get a high quality BGS 8.5 for $60k but couldn't get anyone to accept at that price. At the time the highest sale ever for a BGS 8.5 was $55.6k and the most recent comp was $52.6k so I was offering the highest price ever trying to get ahead of the Heritage comp but no one would bite. However, I got VERY lucky to locate a top notch BGS 8 (with 3 x 9.5 subs) just a few days prior to the Heritage auction and was able to close the sale the day before the auction for what is still (for now) a record price for a BGS 8. I felt good about it, however, because my copy is tied for the top overall copy in the entire BGS 8 pop report of 229 with four other cards that have the same sub grades as mine, so it's as close as you can get to an 8.5 without being an 8.5 and my 4 subs total 36, which is higher than 95% of BGS 8.5's and equal to or just .5 a point less than most BGS 9's I have seen as well. I expect to be up 50-80% from my record buy price on Feb 26 by the end of this month. This is unfolding just as I thought. I plan on keeping my BGS 8 in my PC and will only make it available if I can upgrade to a BGS 8.5 or BGS 9 that is as nice or nicer than my copy. Other than that it's going to be a lifer with me!

If you want an 84 Star #101 in a high grade I recommend getting ahead of the comp. Once the BGS 8.5 on eBay sells for a mega record price that will reset the whole market for BGS 8's just like the BGS 9 sale at HA did for the 8.5's. Then once the market is reset for BGS 8's with a huge sale that will reset the market for BGS 7.5's and trickle down. Bottom line these cards are going up BIG in BGS 8/8.5 and may go up by a lesser percentage in BGS 7.5 or 7's but it will still be a significant % jump either way.

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by Bulls90s

Suspicious activity...Swindlers just want 101 stay hot.. they're so greedy. It'll be interesting how much grade 6 goes for.

What swindlers? The card has been undervalued forever and people are finally waking up to it. How is that different from any other card that explodes in value after being priced too low for far too long?

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by oldschoolball

Current PWCC March 2021 Auction

Number of 1986 Fleer #57 RC listed by PWCC ........ 30 available

https://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_odk...57%22&_sacat=0



Number of 1984 Star #101 XRC listed by PWCC ........ 1 available

https://www.ebay.com/sch/m.html?_odk...01%22&_sacat=0


Now you can question PWCC’s prices realized or allegations of what stuff did or did not sell for, fair enough. But again, I am only talking about “supply” which even PWCC, Brent or their consignors/bidders/shillers/renegers/flippers can not control.

30 : 1

I don't know if a single monthly auction should be considered representative, but the total population of each card in TPG pop reports is roughly 30:1 as well. (I wouldn't be surprised if there are thousands of the #57 that are counted in the pop reports but were cracked and crossed over. I know I cracked an SGC 96 and I don't remember having notified SGC. Even discounting the pop-reported 57s by 10% you still have about a 30:1 ratio.)

[GOATcards]

But as far as eye appeal goes, who really is a fan of the photo on the #101? I can't recall anyone ever praising it.

If the photo on the #101 were as iconic as the photo on the #57, I think the price disparity between these issues would reflect their supply ratio, i.e., it'd be huge.

Supposing that these cards looked like outright garbage, I don't think any amount of pumping based on the short supply would work out. Again: why doesn't Mantle's 51B RC outsell the 52T? What's their relative eye appeal?

Same principle applies to the other '85 Jordan cards, the Nike 'jumpman' card and that holographic sticker thingy. Some people dig the Nike card but it's more of a niche item. He's not in a Bulls uni. Production-value-wise, he's casting a shadow ffs. I can see how obsessive completist MJ collectors would go after this and the non-photographic sticker, and the 5X7 Star and Interlake issues, and all the Star issues with half-assed photography, but how many MJ collectors are *obsessive* about cardboard and can afford it all? I'd go for an auto'd 'Final Floor' collectible like this one over those things. I don't even see MJ's face in it but I like the photo just on its own more than the one on #101.

[oldschoolball]

Sorry, you lost me on the faceless Floor piece.

At least you didn't go down Merchante Campeonato road.

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by EJKaufman

The card is already up to $68,600 now with 8 days and 20 hours left and looks like it will for sure hit $100k plus. It's on fire! If you look at my post in this thread from 3/1 I predicted $80-90k range for the next BGS 8.5 sale but this looks like it will definitely outdo that!

I'm not even crazy about this card as if you view the high resolution images on the PWCC website the corners and edges are not that nice. I think the card could easily have received an 8.5 edges grade like it did for the corners. The corners are weak. I think the 9 edges was generous. It's a nice 8.5 though but not a top notch copy.

Like you said, Diana, it seems the buyers with money will want a BGS 8/8.5 and these two grades should have huge jumps based on the recent Heritage BGS 9 and Goldin PSA 8 sales but it seems that the 7.5's and below are lagging for now. However, if the 8.5's start going for $100K and the 8's start going for $70-80k then the gain will eventually trickle down to the 7.5 too. I think if you got that 7.5 last night for $29k that you would probably be up 40-50% on your purchase very soon, like maybe by the end of March! That's why I was pushing you to snipe it at 30k, which surprisingly would have worked!

I'm really happy I picked up a top notch copy of a BGS 8 on Feb 26, just one day prior to the BGS 9 sale at Heritage for $192k. I was trying to get a high quality BGS 8.5 for $60k but couldn't get anyone to accept at that price. At the time the highest sale ever for a BGS 8.5 was $55.6k and the most recent comp was $52.6k so I was offering the highest price ever trying to get ahead of the Heritage comp but no one would bite. However, I got VERY lucky to locate a top notch BGS 8 (with 3 x 9.5 subs) just a few days prior to the Heritage auction and was able to close the sale the day before the auction for what is still (for now) a record price for a BGS 8. I felt good about it, however, because my copy is tied for the top overall copy in the entire BGS 8 pop report of 229 with four other cards that have the same sub grades as mine, so it's as close as you can get to an 8.5 without being an 8.5 and my 4 subs total 36, which is higher than 95% of BGS 8.5's and equal to or just .5 a point less than most BGS 9's I have seen as well. I expect to be up 50-80% from my record buy price on Feb 26 by the end of this month. This is unfolding just as I thought. I plan on keeping my BGS 8 in my PC and will only make it available if I can upgrade to a BGS 8.5 or BGS 9 that is as nice or nicer than my copy. Other than that it's going to be a lifer with me!

If you want an 84 Star #101 in a high grade I recommend getting ahead of the comp. Once the BGS 8.5 on eBay sells for a mega record price that will reset the whole market for BGS 8's just like the BGS 9 sale at HA did for the 8.5's. Then once the market is reset for BGS 8's with a huge sale that will reset the market for BGS 7.5's and trickle down. Bottom line these cards are going up BIG in BGS 8/8.5 and may go up by a lesser percentage in BGS 7.5 or 7's but it will still be a significant % jump either way.

Great post! Yup it definitely looks like the cut off point is between the 8 versus the 7.5. You can also see this with the 86 Fleer. The 86 Fleer PSA 10 buyers are in the star 101 8 and above camp. The 7.5 and below are for those with significantly less money. And I think this is the group that will begin to see better prices.

[Bulls90s]

Originally Posted by Brent72

What swindlers? The card has been undervalued forever and people are finally waking up to it. How is that different from any other card that explodes in value after being priced too low for far too long?

I know people stay far away from PWCC b/c of major shilling...that's all.

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by Bulls90s

I know people stay far away from PWCC b/c of major shilling...that's all.

You might be right. I mean you have this auction happening right now at almost $70K with a week to go.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-85-Sta...T/143973333986

But yet, you have this one sitting around at $70K that can be purchased right now. I know this one is .5 less. However, you would think that at a certain point a bidder from the PWCC auction will buy that one instead?

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by Diana1984

You might be right. I mean you have this auction happening right now at almost $70K with a week to go.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-85-Sta...T/143973333986

But yet, you have this one sitting around at $70K that can be purchased right now. I know this one is .5 less. However, you would think that at a certain point a bidder from the PWCC auction will buy that one instead?

I forgot to put the link. Here it is.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-Star-1...wAAOSwDF5gQ6Rx

[Brent72]

I don't think the 8s have reached $70k level yet. If that had a BIN of $50-55k it would probably be gone in a heartbeat, but right now the ask is too high. Now, if the 8.5 goes over $100k then suddenly that 8 might start to look like a steal.

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by Brent72

I don't think the 8s have reached $70k level yet. If that had a BIN of $50-55k it would probably be gone in a heartbeat, but right now the ask is too high. Now, if the 8.5 goes over $100k then suddenly that 8 might start to look like a steal.

So in your opinion, there is a significant difference between an 8 and an 8.5?

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by Diana1984

So in your opinion, there is a significant difference between an 8 and an 8.5?

Not a "significant" difference like there is between a 9 and everything below it. If the 8.5 does come close to or surpass $100k then it's not unreasonable to see the 8s in the $70-80k range. That one with the BIN at $70k may be gone quick if that's the case.

[GOATcards]

Show of hands (or or ), who likes the photo on the #101?

[Brent72]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Show of hands (or or ), who likes the photo on the #101?

I don't mind it, but if they had used one of the photos on the 5x7 Court Kings or Slam Dunk Supers cards that would have been EPIC!

[maj78]

#117 photo is much better.

[Diana1984]

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Show of hands (or or ), who likes the photo on the #101?

Im casually into sports. I personally think there are too many people in the photo. But, the way Jordan looks in the photo is fine. He looks very intense!

[2000man]

Originally Posted by Brent72

Not a "significant" difference like there is between a 9 and everything below it. If the 8.5 does come close to or surpass $100k then it's not unreasonable to see the 8s in the $70-80k range. That one with the BIN at $70k may be gone quick if that's the case.

Perhaps a much higher graded population of 7.5’s and & 8’s vs. 8.5’s exist at this time? We will see the overall pop report increase this year. With the recent publicity about MJ crazy dollar auctions, some will find there old 101 and submit when this type of money is possible.

“Show of hands (or or ), who likes the photo on the #101?” Not great but the limited print run of this card more than makes up for it.

[Bulls90s]

Originally Posted by Diana1984

You might be right. I mean you have this auction happening right now at almost $70K with a week to go.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-85-Sta...T/143973333986

But yet, you have this one sitting around at $70K that can be purchased right now. I know this one is .5 less. However, you would think that at a certain point a bidder from the PWCC auction will buy that one instead?

EXACTLY!!! eBay is a very shady business. You notice biddings r private on PWCC private listings? They encourage shilling. A lot of collectors r idiots.

Originally Posted by GOATcards

Show of hands (or or ), who likes the photo on the #101?

[Brent72]

According to Beckett, pop report is exactly 900. There are 68 9s, 237 8.5s, 229 8s and 179 7.5s along with all the other individual grades.

[GOATcards]

Originally Posted by maj78

#117 photo is much better.

[mrclean08]

Originally Posted by Brent72

I don't mind it, but if they had used one of the photos on the 5x7 Court Kings or Slam Dunk Supers cards that would have been EPIC!

It would've looked like this. And I agree with you. It definitely would have looked epic.



But if it were up to me, I would have made the 101 look like this.