Are Football cards poised to explode?!?

[Jopeal]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

Is it not normal to ask a question, answer it yourself, and post a picture of a card you own that you're hoping "explodes" in value all in one post?

Lately? Very normal.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

Is it not normal to ask a question, answer it yourself, and post a picture of a card you own that you're hoping "explodes" in value all in one post?

Uncle G's Bapeboi disciples are a well trained bunch.

[Spartyon]

I haven’t read this whole thread. But I agree with the originally sentiment. Only difference is, I thought at the beginning the 2018 season there was too big of a gap between qb prospects and the basketball market. I think a lot of that gap has been filled over the past 6 months


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[deansayso]

If we could get the pits advice here that'd be great.

[JUNKWAX]

I don't expect the football market to do anything at all but possibly go down. I pretty much turned my back on the NFL a few years ago when the kneeling started and haven't bought a pack of football cards since then. I was slowly starting to watch again last year and now the slap me in the face again with the same BS. I am done with football and so are the other 8 or 9 collectors I know. I am just a very small sample in the football market but I got to believe there are tons of other collectors out there running as far away from football as they can get as well.

[SleeperCards]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

I don't expect the football market to do anything at all but possibly go down. I pretty much turned my back on the NFL a few years ago when the kneeling started and haven't bought a pack of football cards since then. I was slowly starting to watch again last year and now the slap me in the face again with the same BS. I am done with football and so are the other 8 or 9 collectors I know. I am just a very small sample in the football market but I got to believe there are tons of other collectors out there running as far away from football as they can get as well.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

I don't expect the football market to do anything at all but possibly go down. I pretty much turned my back on the NFL a few years ago when the kneeling started and haven't bought a pack of football cards since then. I was slowly starting to watch again last year and now the slap me in the face again with the same BS. I am done with football and so are the other 8 or 9 collectors I know. I am just a very small sample in the football market but I got to believe there are tons of other collectors out there running as far away from football as they can get as well.

They’re not running fast enough because current numbers aren’t showing that. You yourself said those people left years ago, and card values have only been on an upward projection since then. While I do think they will be a impending drop in value for a lot of non-Mahomes cards, I don’t think it will have anything to do with the group of people who have stopped following the NFL since the kneeling.

[Rabs]

Originally Posted by SleeperCards

That was a great episode.

[Siberian13]

Can someone start pumping Matt Ryan. He’s incredibly undervalued right now. He speaks Chinese, Japanese and Korean fluently. He’s also amazing at karaoke and dance dance revolution. He’s a dream candidate to overseas markets.

[mike1498]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Can someone start pumping Matt Ryan. He’s incredibly undervalued right now. He speaks Chinese, Japanese and Korean fluently. He’s also amazing at karaoke and dance dance revolution. He’s a dream candidate to overseas markets.

Yeah right after I’m done pumping josh Rosen I’ll get onto that

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Can someone start pumping Matt Ryan. He’s incredibly undervalued right now. He speaks Chinese, Japanese and Korean fluently. He’s also amazing at karaoke and dance dance revolution. He’s a dream candidate to overseas markets.

He's not fluent in Super Bowl victories

[codered]

The football market has been slowly trending towards bigger things if you have been paying attention. Also for the record Kyler Murray is Asian (Korean). There have been other notable Asian players as well; Hines Ward (he’s actually quite popular in Korea), Patrick Chung and of course Roman Gabriel (first Asian nfl MVP)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Jopeal

As a former football collector, I’ve largely given up on collecting modern football outside of a very select few.
I’d recon people here would be smart to stick with MVP-caliber QBs & HOFers only, most which have already seen nice price run ups.

Awaiting your elaboration.

My elaboration:

We are in the beginning stages of paradigm shift where new money flowing into Football turns each week into a casino where notable cards (PSA 10 key rookies, Prizm Silver, etc) are the currency. Basketball collectors are at a point where they cannot find rare cards like Prizm Golds on top players, and are looking at guys like Brady and Mahomes and seeing how cheap they have been selling and frothing at the mouth for them. Although, those have started to dry up lately.

Just last summer I was showing off a pickup I had here for $200: a 1998 TC Refractor Peyton Manning. One of the regs around here told me it wasn't a good investment because football collectors didn't care about that card. So I doubled down and bought another one. Feel free to look up what that goes for now.

As for non-QBs..... would I spend $200 on a McCaffrey Prizm when I can get a Tomlinson PSA 9 Topps Chrome refractor for only.....

$500. Wait a second! I thought Tomlinson didn't sell for anything. It's almost like something is happening where people are starting to pick these things up.

And I know CMC hasn't accomplished what Tomlinson has yet, but there's a lot of potential there to grow his appeal as a fan favorite, and all it takes is one season where Carolina can compete for the division and he's in the MVP race. Collectors/Flippers will get caught up in the moment. Remember the hobby love that AP used to get before he got busted for abusing children.

I'm not sure we're that far off on the way we see things. Most of my football money is in Mahomes and Brady. But damn, when I had the chance to get a CMC Gold XRC that's probably going to grade a 10, for the price of a LeBron Silver Prizm (not even early years), I was all over it.

This is just my opinion. Nobody has to agree with it. It just really seems to me very similar to football 2 years ago. I thank you for asking my opinion instead of just jumping all over it.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

I don't expect the football market to do anything at all but possibly go down. I pretty much turned my back on the NFL a few years ago when the kneeling started and haven't bought a pack of football cards since then. I was slowly starting to watch again last year and now the slap me in the face again with the same BS. I am done with football and so are the other 8 or 9 collectors I know. I am just a very small sample in the football market but I got to believe there are tons of other collectors out there running as far away from football as they can get as well.

I can't resist....

I hereby award you the 3rd Annual TJForce 'Chicken Little' Award

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by majestik101

He's not fluent in Super Bowl victories

I mean people pumped Jameis, Mariota, Garhippolo, Luck, Cam, Stafford, Goff, Baker, Biscuit, Carr, Teddy, Darnold the friendly ghost, etc. let’s do this!

[YeahBuddy]

Originally Posted by ovrcollect

In basketball, I think it's easier to see how good a player is on their own. One player can make a huge impact and players drafted in the higher lottery picks can usually transition somewhat effectively. This leads to stronger speculation price wise.

Football is tough value wise because it really does rely on the team. QB's need receivers, a line, and a defense to keep them winning games. RB's need a line and an effective QB (and a defense so they can keep running the ball.) WR's need a QB, a line, and a pass friendly offense. Football also, by far, has the most "busts" when it comes to top draft picks, and can lead to some tremendous falls at all positions. The current astronomical values of QBs will come back to earth at some point when people see that value in football isn't entirely based on potential.

Guys like Kyler, Lock, etc would be lucky to have a career like Matthew Stafford, but with the available hindsight is he a QB you would've wanted to invest in? Most of these guys will be Andy Daltons or Tyrod Taylors.

very good points.

One just can't spec as hard on football without more chance of losing your ass. Just got to be smarter tho, but even still when you look back at last 10 years of 1st round draft picks in basketball it's hard work finding any draft with 5 legitimate hobby $tars. So there is still some comparison between the two sports. Just more chance with basketball, as the defensive 1st rounders in football up to this point aren't going to fetch much.

[Vinny1984]

It already has and will only intensify once actual games start. And to those that think it’s just QBs that gain value, you are wrong in the short term. Long term is anyone’s guess. Few examples just in my own personal world:

Bought Watson optic rookies at $9 a pop 2 months ago. Now they are $30
Bought Julio Jones topps rookie psa10 for $15 3 months ago. Sold for $50
Bought Michael Thomas optic rookie for $22 3 months ago. Sold for $55
Bought Godwin flawless 2nd year auto for $15 a year ago. Sold for $90

I could go on and on. If you are just blindly going off of past trends that football doesn’t sell, you are missing the boat. It’s happening.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

I don't expect the football market to do anything at all but possibly go down. I pretty much turned my back on the NFL a few years ago when the kneeling started and haven't bought a pack of football cards since then. I was slowly starting to watch again last year and now the slap me in the face again with the same BS. I am done with football and so are the other 8 or 9 collectors I know. I am just a very small sample in the football market but I got to believe there are tons of other collectors out there running as far away from football as they can get as well.

Being mad about this is still a thing?

[JUNKWAX]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Being mad about this is still a thing?

Who said I was mad? Just because I turned my back on the NFL like they did me and many others doesn't mean I am mad. Disappointed would be a better way to describe it. At this point I couldn't care less what the NFL or football cards do.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by chasacar86

Also, at what point do the posts complaining about "all the newbs entering the hobby" end? Obvious answer is never buuuut

Feels a lot like that person who listened to a song that became a hit first, and now just cannot believe others are hearing and enjoying that song that they knew about first(!)

100%

The sodium levels in these forums runneth over.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

I pretty much turned my back on the NFL a few years ago when the kneeling started

how ironic, thats precisely when I got back into football.

[ovrcollect]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

It already has and will only intensify once actual games start. And to those that think it’s just QBs that gain value, you are wrong in the short term. Long term is anyone’s guess. Few examples just in my own personal world:

Bought Watson optic rookies at $9 a pop 2 months ago. Now they are $30
Bought Julio Jones topps rookie psa10 for $15 3 months ago. Sold for $50
Bought Michael Thomas optic rookie for $22 3 months ago. Sold for $55
Bought Godwin flawless 2nd year auto for $15 a year ago. Sold for $90

I could go on and on. If you are just blindly going off of past trends that football doesn’t sell, you are missing the boat. It’s happening.

I don't think you can use the last three months as an example, as it's definitely not representative of how pricing generally moves. 300% gain on base cards of players who aren't playing isn't the norm.

Your point stands that there are positions other than qb that sell, but it's a smaller gain on a smaller pool. 1/4 of the nfl's qb's appear to be investment-worthy right now - not sure you can say the same about other positions

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by JUNKWAX

Who said I was mad? Just because I turned my back on the NFL like they did me and many others doesn't mean I am mad. Disappointed would be a better way to describe it. At this point I couldn't care less what the NFL or football cards do.

Wait a second, so you turned your back on the NFL and NFL sports cards yet here you are posting in an NFL sports card forum and thread??? Confused much??? LOL

[Picklepete]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I know NOTHING about the basketball market, so I’m sorry if this is a stupid question, but is that what’s driving the explosion in the basketball card market?

For years

[JUNKWAX]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

Wait a second, so you turned your back on the NFL and NFL sports cards yet here you are posting in an NFL sports card forum and thread??? Confused much??? LOL

You are so observant.