Miguel Sano vs Aaron Judge: Career HRs. A poll. - Page 3

hornedfrog1985 · 02-14-2018, 03:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dashcol

I will start by saying I am a HUGE Sano fan. Have been since his time in New Britain. I could either take or leave Judge.

I will never contest Judge is the rookie HR leader. He absolutely holds that. I do think however that a lot of it was the “juices” balls last year. If you look at his previous years HRs in the minors he was 23-40 every year 2014-2016. A total of 101 HRs. 2016 being the lowest. This was done with 2416 ABs. That’s .042 HRs per AB.

In Sano’s Minor leagues he had 171 HRs from 2010-2015. He did this in 2654 ABs. That’s .064 HRs per AB.

The numbers will say Sano is younger therefor more years left playing, he hits more HRs per AB with non “juiced” balls.

Let’s say they both get 500 ABs a year, and they both play until 40. Let’s also make an assumption that the HRs will be consistent every year (which we all know is not true, there will be ups and downs, probably more downs). That would give Sano 15 years so that would be 480 more HRs plus the 71 he already hit for a total of 551 HRs.

Using same logic with Judge he will hit 294 more HRs plus the 52 he has that gives him 336 HRs in his career.

I know these are very rough numbers, but I like numbers as seeing what they say.

This also assumes they both stay healthy. Based on Judge’s build I see him more like a Bo Jackson. Going to be incredible until his size causes a career ending injury.

Judge went up through the minors pretty quick, and had to adjust. He is also very long and it takes a while for these guys to find their swings. I really dont think minor league home run numbers mean a lot for judges potential.

Neo · 02-14-2018, 03:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hornedfrog1985

saNo way anyone beats judge for usa #1 mvps!

Sano is gonna be a fatty in about 6 years

Fatty?

vwnut13 · 02-14-2018, 04:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

I see judge as an Adam Dunn type, so I voted for Sano

Come again?

Sano:.. .254/.348/.496 | 12.3 BB%, 35.8 K%

Judge: .270/.402/.589 | 17.6 BB%, 32.3 K%

Neo · 02-14-2018, 05:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vwnut13

Come again?

Sano:.. .254/.348/.496 | 12.3 BB%, 35.8 K%

Judge: .270/.402/.589 | 17.6 BB%, 32.3 K%

Those k%'s. I love it.

BigL7370 · 02-14-2018, 05:43 AM

I suspect Sano is older than his listed age, while Judge was an 'older' rookie - I think they finish with roughly the same numbers with Sano more likely to decline sooner once his athleticism evaporates.

Neo · 02-14-2018, 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigL7370

I suspect Sano is older than his listed age, while Judge was an 'older' rookie - I think they finish with roughly the same numbers with Sano more likely to decline sooner once his athleticism evaporates.

This matter was settled with bone density tests when he was being scouted.

Hollywood42 · 02-14-2018, 09:59 AM

And Judge hit under .200 for a 62 game stretch last year and hasn't proven he'll be a stud like he was last year again. Both have their potential flaws or concerns, but both will still hit more than their fair share of home runs. Again, that's the only thing this thread asked about, home run totals. My response would be completely different if it was about who would have the better career, but it's only HR totals

Why does it matter if Sano DHs or plays in the field? It will have absolutely 0 impact on his home run total. In fact, it might be a good thing for his power numbers if he switched to a full time DH as then he could focus solely on hitting

Quote:

Originally Posted by HP7163

Sano has off field issues (could be minor), never played more than 116 games, with possible weight/working out issues .. I'm betting against him. He's a certain DH also

Loved the guy 2 years ago but I'm on the fence now. Big power and raw but also a lot of questions

30+ Hr is also nothing today but I get your point and agree

darin2200 · 02-14-2018, 10:44 AM

Sano = next Pablo Sandoval with weight issues, I am a Minnesota guy and would love this not to be true, nothing I've seen or heard leads me to believe Sano has the character and discipline to keep his body in shape over the long haul.

I voted Judge "by a lot"

tlschwerz · 02-14-2018, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HitandRun24

What about the horrible second half slump

From Judge? I referenced that, and he adjusted nicely. He finished with a 1.352 OPS and 15 HRs in September.

tlschwerz · 02-14-2018, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

You think Judge hits less than 300 HRs in his career?

Yes, I do. I think we saw the best season he'll ever put up. He's very good, but I think he's still plenty susceptible to being exploited.

CoachBruno · 02-14-2018, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darin2200

Sano = next Pablo Sandoval with weight issues, I am a Minnesota guy and would love this not to be true, nothing I've seen or heard leads me to believe Sano has the character and discipline to keep his body in shape over the long haul.

I voted Judge "by a lot"

This. There are no metrics for makeup, which Judge leads in, based on the information available.

Neo · 02-14-2018, 12:45 PM

Still more SANO backers than I would have thought at first. 28%!

I hope its a fun comparison to follow.

texmcpherson · 02-14-2018, 01:17 PM

I’ll vote Arenado

ridgerider · 02-14-2018, 01:19 PM

If anyone needs perspective about which will be a better hitter just look back at the Blowout archives and find the Trout vs Harper threads from 2013 and you will see that only time will tell and no one knows the answer. Most responses are coming from a position of financial or homeristic bias even if stats are provided.
I know last season was one of the best seasons of baseball I watched in a long time and I hope both Sano, Judge and the rest of the new young core continue to make baseball enjoyable their whole career.

Hollywood42 · 02-14-2018, 01:47 PM

Of course. But it's still going to be debated

Quote:

Originally Posted by ridgerider

If anyone needs perspective about which will be a better hitter just look back at the Blowout archives and find the Trout vs Harper threads from 2013 and you will see that only time will tell and no one knows the answer. Most responses are coming from a position of financial or homeristic bias even if stats are provided.
I know last season was one of the best seasons of baseball I watched in a long time and I hope both Sano, Judge and the rest of the new young core continue to make baseball enjoyable their whole career.

Uwfootball1 · 02-14-2018, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vwnut13

Come again?

Sano:.. .254/.348/.496 | 12.3 BB%, 35.8 K%

Judge: .270/.402/.589 | 17.6 BB%, 32.3 K%

Last year was judges first year come back to this after this year

cnewby · 02-14-2018, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

Last year was judges first year come back to this after this year

So a players first year should be their best? Got it.

Uwfootball1 · 02-14-2018, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

So a players first year should be their best? Got it.

That's putting words into my mouth just saying Sano has a full season on him, you never know what might happen this year to Judge, many players have fluke seasons

cnewby · 02-14-2018, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

That's putting words into my mouth just saying Sano has a full season on him, you never know what might happen this year to Judge, many players have fluke seasons

You need to work on your punctuation.

Uwfootball1 · 02-14-2018, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

You need to work on your punctuation.

I wrote that on my ipad and my punctuation is normally not the best, thanks for pointing it out. I like that you respond to my punctuation and not my actual comment.

cnewby · 02-14-2018, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

I wrote that on my ipad and my punctuation is normally not the best, thanks for pointing it out. I like that you respond to my punctuation and not my actual comment.

You were approached with hard facts and you replied with "well it was Judges 1st year, he could easily regress". As if Sano is suddenly going to get better?

Uwfootball1 · 02-14-2018, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

You were approached with hard facts and you replied with "well it was Judges 1st year, he could easily regress". As if Sano is suddenly going to get better?

Sano's first year stats to counter .269 .385 .530 .916.

slightly lower then Judge's but also 3 years younger when it happened, Projections this year show Sano at 27 homers and Judge at 37, so we will have to see what happens, I think over the course of their careers sano will be the better hitter and have more line drive home runs.

cnewby · 02-14-2018, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

Sano's first year stats to counter .269 .385 .530 .916.

slightly lower then Judge's but also 3 years younger when it happened.

What was his weight that year?

Uwfootball1 · 02-14-2018, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cnewby

What was his weight that year?

unsure, but I do agree if he doesn't keep the weight off Judge will have more homers and Sano's career may track like Sandovals.

VeedonFleece · 02-14-2018, 05:20 PM

Judge is huge. Doesn't take much imagination to see him breaking down before Sano balloons to 330lbs.

Not trolling you here cnewby!

View Poll Results: Sano v Judge: Career HR
Judge - By a lot, this poll is crazy	154	43.87%
Judge	94	26.78%
Sano	53	15.10%
Sano - By a lot	29	8.26%
I dislike polls.	21	5.98%
Voters: 351. You may not vote on this poll

02-14-2018, 12:45 PM	#62
Neo Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: Canada Posts: 2,178	Still more SANO backers than I would have thought at first. 28%! I hope its a fun comparison to follow. __________________ I found my dream card, and thus am finally NO LONGER looking for: 1997 Bowman Certified Gold Ink Autographs #CA35 Roy Halladay Hate your enemies//Save, save your friends//Find, find your place//Speak, speak the truth Last edited by Neo; 02-14-2018 at 12:50 PM.

02-14-2018, 01:17 PM	#63
texmcpherson Member Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Iowa Posts: 15,950 texmcpherson	I’ll vote Arenado __________________ *You can’t triple stamp a double stamp.*

02-14-2018, 05:43 AM	#55
BigL7370 Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,061	I suspect Sano is older than his listed age, while Judge was an 'older' rookie - I think they finish with roughly the same numbers with Sano more likely to decline sooner once his athleticism evaporates.

02-14-2018, 10:44 AM	#58
darin2200 Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Minnesota Posts: 1,178 darin2200 darin2200	Sano = next Pablo Sandoval with weight issues, I am a Minnesota guy and would love this not to be true, nothing I've seen or heard leads me to believe Sano has the character and discipline to keep his body in shape over the long haul. I voted Judge "by a lot"

02-14-2018, 01:19 PM	#64
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	If anyone needs perspective about which will be a better hitter just look back at the Blowout archives and find the Trout vs Harper threads from 2013 and you will see that only time will tell and no one knows the answer. Most responses are coming from a position of financial or homeristic bias even if stats are provided. I know last season was one of the best seasons of baseball I watched in a long time and I hope both Sano, Judge and the rest of the new young core continue to make baseball enjoyable their whole career.

02-14-2018, 05:20 PM	#75
VeedonFleece Member Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: The 01246 Posts: 3,896 veedonfleece	Judge is huge. Doesn't take much imagination to see him breaking down before Sano balloons to 330lbs. Not trolling you here cnewby!