Avoided investing in Kris Bryant because of his age - Page 4

Ronaldo773 · 08-19-2016, 05:33 PM

When they win the World Series this year his price will skyrocket!

RandyB · 08-19-2016, 06:45 PM

I regret selling every KB I sold over the past year! The kid is special and keeps getting better!

Big35Hurt · 08-20-2016, 10:15 PM

Another 4 RBI's tonight. He is really making a solid case for MVP.

ThoseBackPages · 08-20-2016, 10:20 PM

Is he better then Mookie?

tchronis24 · 08-20-2016, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Is he better then Mookie?

No. Mookie > Trout

ThoseBackPages · 08-20-2016, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tchronis24

No. Mookie > Trout

School was a long time ago..... is it called the chain theory?

KB > Mookie

Mookie > Fish

so

KB > Fish

right?

gonygo · 08-20-2016, 10:25 PM

Mookie LOL How long before KB prices eclipse Mikey Bass? KB=BEAST MODE!!!

tchronis24 · 08-20-2016, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

School was a long time ago..... is it called the chain theory?

KB > Mookie

Mookie > Fish

so

KB > Fish

right?

Did you forget to carry the one? Cause I'm pretty sure bartolo is better than them all.

Big35Hurt · 08-21-2016, 06:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tchronis24

Did you forget to carry the one? Cause I'm pretty sure bartolo is better than them all.

Bartolo's WAR (weight above replacement) is +60....so he definitely beats all these guys in that category.

rseve43 · 08-21-2016, 10:24 AM

Skipping on a budding superstar due to age is silly.

If it's a 25 year old prospect in AAA putting up average numbers....that's different. Skip that guy. Kris Bryant, on the other hand, is proving he's one of the best players in Major League Baseball; and a reasonable argument can be made that (barring injury or other unforeseen circumstances) he'll end his career with 500+ homers, which would all but guarantee a spot in the HOF.

The key to remember is that you don't have to be the single greatest player of all time for your baseball cards to gain value over time. If Bryant continues to be one of the top 5-10 players in MLB, his cards will continue to rise.

tchronis24 · 08-21-2016, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rseve43

Skipping on a budding superstar due to age is silly.

If it's a 25 year old prospect in AAA putting up average numbers....that's different. Skip that guy. Kris Bryant, on the other hand, is proving he's one of the best players in Major League Baseball; and a reasonable argument can be made that (barring injury or other unforeseen circumstances) he'll end his career with 500+ homers, which would all but guarantee a spot in the HOF.

The key to remember is that you don't have to be the single greatest player of all time for your baseball cards to gain value over time. If Bryant continues to be one of the top 5-10 players in MLB, his cards will continue to rise.

I really don't know if I can see him hitting 500. Barring injuries isn't really a thing considering they happen to most players. You also can't expect a 35 and on year old Bryant to be putting up 30 plus homers so I'm not sure about that but only time will tell

seabass97166 · 08-21-2016, 10:54 AM

Bryant sure did live up to the hype. He is every bit as good as advertised, if not better.

That being said, there are simply too many cards of him (and everyone else for that matter) Imagine in another 5-10 years. There are hundreds of rookie autos available at any given time. Hard for a player to maintain the value when supply is so plentiful. Sure if he has a big game or big post season his cards will spike again, but one bad season and look out.

I sold a Harper raw refractor for $1350 earlier this year and now I can buy the same card back for $550. Pretty ridiculous. Harper still has 20+ bombs and almost a .400 .OBP.
All it takes is one sub par 4 month stretch and the finicky crowd is unforgiving. Especially because there are so many cards.

Short term, sure...long term, doubtful

rseve43 · 08-21-2016, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tchronis24

I really don't know if I can see him hitting 500. Barring injuries isn't really a thing considering they happen to most players. You also can't expect a 35 and on year old Bryant to be putting up 30 plus homers so I'm not sure about that but only time will tell

Just for fun, let's try to project it...

He's 24 through the end of this season and already has 57. He'll probably hit a few more in the last 40 games, so he should end the year somewhere between 60-65.

I don't think it's out of the question to think he can average 35 for the next 10 seasons. I think he will have a few seasons of 45+, but like you mention, let's say he misses some games to injury and maybe has a few years with only 25-30, so the average comes down to 35 per year. For a superior power hitter in Wrigley field with good protection (currently, at least), I think that's a pretty fair estimate.

That means by the end of his age 34 season, when he'll theoretically be coming out of his prime, he will have roughly 410 homers. If he plays until 40, he needs to average 15 per season. If he plays until 38, he needs about 23 per season to get there. Both scenarios should be doable.

Who knows what will actually happen...we're assuming a lot anytime we try to predict the future. But based on what he's shown us so far, I think this is a pretty reasonable projection to at least show that it's possible.

rainbowkiller · 08-21-2016, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rseve43

Just for fun, let's try to project it...

He's 24 through the end of this season and already has 57. He'll probably hit a few more in the last 40 games, so he should end the year somewhere between 60-65.

I don't think it's out of the question to think he can average 35 for the next 10 seasons. I think he will have a few seasons of 45+, but like you mention, let's say he misses some games to injury and maybe has a few years with only 25-30, so the average comes down to 35 per year. For a superior power hitter in Wrigley field with good protection (currently, at least), I think that's a pretty fair estimate.

That means by the end of his age 34 season, when he'll theoretically be coming out of his prime, he will have roughly 410 homers. If he plays until 40, he needs to average 15 per season. If he plays until 38, he needs about 23 per season to get there. Both scenarios should be doable.

Who knows what will actually happen...we're assuming a lot anytime we try to predict the future. But based on what he's shown us so far, I think this is a pretty reasonable projection to at least show that it's possible.

I agree with this... but why is it that people who buy cards always go to the absolute best case scenario for young talent? A decade playing is no easy feat for any player (unless you're talking Gehrig or Ripken) but everyone seems to assume that is exactly what will happen... no doubt this is something that the sellers/touts exploit.

Fantasy vs reality really.

rseve43 · 08-21-2016, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rainbowkiller

I agree with this... but why is it that people who buy cards always go to the absolute best case scenario for young talent? A decade playing is no easy feat for any player (unless you're talking Gehrig or Ripken) but everyone seems to assume that is exactly what will happen... no doubt this is something that the sellers/touts exploit.

Fantasy vs reality really.

Right, there's no way to know...all we can do is go off the information we have, and that's mostly based on past performance and projections of similar players. People can and will buy and sell cards accordingly. We can make a case for 500+ OR 499- but at this point so early in the game, it's nothing more than fun speculation. At the end of the day, Bryant will write his own story.

As far as buying cards assuming best case scenario, I think it's the 'buy now or pay up later' mindset where everyone wants to jump on the next big thing early. It doesn't always work out, but it certainly pays off when it does.

CoolG · 08-21-2016, 12:42 PM

Book it. He will have at least 4 seasons with 50 plus dingers

deemsterz33 · 08-21-2016, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolG

Book it. He will have at least 4 seasons with 50 plus dingers

That's um..... hmmmm... no?

CoolG · 08-21-2016, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

That's um..... hmmmm... no?

please elaborate on why he won't

Sosa hit more than 50 five times
A-Rod hit more than 47 five different times
Like I said Bryant will eclipse it 4 times before he's done
IMO.
disclaimer I have exactly ZERO Bryant cards

Wiseguy917 · 08-21-2016, 02:54 PM

Whocares if he gets to 500?!?!? This thread is about investing (making money I'm assuming)

If you're still holding by the time he gets anywhere near 500 you're doing this so wrong......from a money making stand point that is. If you're just collecting the guy for fun then hold forever

deemsterz33 · 08-21-2016, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolG

please elaborate on why he won't

Sosa hit more than 50 five times
A-Rod hit more than 47 five different times
Like I said Bryant will eclipse it 4 times before he's done
IMO.
disclaimer I have exactly ZERO Bryant cards

Sosa + A-Rod took PEDs. The only player to hit 50 HRs 4 times and not be busted for juicing is Babe Ruth. Not Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Griffey, Pujols, Reggie, Frank Robinson, etc.... Shoot, Bonds did it once. I will buy you a Heritage Bryant Auto after his 4th season of 50 HRs, lol.

CoolG · 08-21-2016, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

Sosa + A-Rod took PEDs. The only player to hit 50 HRs 4 times and not be busted for juicing is Babe Ruth. Not Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Griffey, Pujols, Reggie, Frank Robinson, etc.... Shoot, Bonds did it once. I will buy you a Heritage Bryant Auto after his 4th season of 50 HRs, lol.

Cool that'll be my first Bryant card and thx for your generosity

deemsterz33 · 08-21-2016, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolG

Cool that'll be my first Bryant card and thx for your generosity

Sure thing, you know where to find me

centereacan06 · 08-21-2016, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deemsterz33

Sosa + A-Rod took PEDs. The only player to hit 50 HRs 4 times and not be busted for juicing is Babe Ruth. Not Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Griffey, Pujols, Reggie, Frank Robinson, etc.... Shoot, Bonds did it once. I will buy you a Heritage Bryant Auto after his 4th season of 50 HRs, lol.

Can you buy me one too?

deemsterz33 · 08-21-2016, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by centereacan06

Can you buy me one too?

Why not? Everyone gets one!

Lonewolf · 08-21-2016, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoolG

please elaborate on why he won't

Sosa hit more than 50 five times
A-Rod hit more than 47 five different times
Like I said Bryant will eclipse it 4 times before he's done
IMO.
disclaimer I have exactly ZERO Bryant cards

Ummm, ROIDS?

08-20-2016, 10:20 PM	#79
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 90,154 ThoseBackPages	Is he better then Mookie? __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

08-20-2016, 10:25 PM	#82
gonygo Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: U.S./east coast Posts: 9,350	Mookie LOL How long before KB prices eclipse Mikey Bass? KB=BEAST MODE!!! __________________ To prevent potential problems-I will be more selective with whom I choose to sell to and/or trade with. *Cards posted in the BST section may be listed on Ebay and may be sold before you claim to buy via post or pm. As always-PM works best. Last edited by gonygo; 08-20-2016 at 10:40 PM.*

08-19-2016, 05:33 PM	#76
Ronaldo773 Banned - PBM Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 269	When they win the World Series this year his price will skyrocket!

08-19-2016, 06:45 PM	#77
RandyB Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 3,116	I regret selling every KB I sold over the past year! The kid is special and keeps getting better!

08-20-2016, 10:15 PM	#78
Big35Hurt Member Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 9,578	Another 4 RBI's tonight. He is really making a solid case for MVP.

08-21-2016, 10:24 AM	#85
rseve43 Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Indianapolis Posts: 2,235	Skipping on a budding superstar due to age is silly. If it's a 25 year old prospect in AAA putting up average numbers....that's different. Skip that guy. Kris Bryant, on the other hand, is proving he's one of the best players in Major League Baseball; and a reasonable argument can be made that (barring injury or other unforeseen circumstances) he'll end his career with 500+ homers, which would all but guarantee a spot in the HOF. The key to remember is that you don't have to be the single greatest player of all time for your baseball cards to gain value over time. If Bryant continues to be one of the top 5-10 players in MLB, his cards will continue to rise.

08-21-2016, 10:54 AM	#87
seabass97166 Banned Join Date: Feb 2015 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 10,685	Bryant sure did live up to the hype. He is every bit as good as advertised, if not better. That being said, there are simply too many cards of him (and everyone else for that matter) Imagine in another 5-10 years. There are hundreds of rookie autos available at any given time. Hard for a player to maintain the value when supply is so plentiful. Sure if he has a big game or big post season his cards will spike again, but one bad season and look out. I sold a Harper raw refractor for $1350 earlier this year and now I can buy the same card back for $550. Pretty ridiculous. Harper still has 20+ bombs and almost a .400 .OBP. All it takes is one sub par 4 month stretch and the finicky crowd is unforgiving. Especially because there are so many cards. Short term, sure...long term, doubtful

08-21-2016, 12:42 PM	#91
CoolG Member Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 2,033	Book it. He will have at least 4 seasons with 50 plus dingers

08-21-2016, 02:54 PM	#94
Wiseguy917 Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 3,558	Whocares if he gets to 500?!?!? This thread is about investing (making money I'm assuming) If you're still holding by the time he gets anywhere near 500 you're doing this so wrong......from a money making stand point that is. If you're just collecting the guy for fun then hold forever