Looking at Future HOF classes

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by rats60

That we are saying Sabathia is in just shows how low the bar is on making the HOF. He will instantly be one of the worst players in the HOF.

Some of the guys that some are pushing are even worse. The quality of players in these classes is really low, but the writers need to elect players so the HOF can have an induction ceremony and keep the Cooperstown economy going.

Uh, huh. Because every HOF pitcher is Greg Maddux or Bob Gibson? The bar has always been relatively low, and frankly, is probably higher now. Without scanning the entire list of inductees, here are some pitchers who seem to indicate that Sabathia belongs. (I even threw in a couple 300-game winners.) I’m not saying these were bad pitchers by any means, but they’re not exactly Pedro Martinez or Steve Carlton.

Red Ruffing
Jack Morris
Jim Bunning
Eppa Rixey
Herb Pennock
Burleigh Grimes
Catfish Hunter
Rube Marquard
Bert Blyleven
Don Sutton
Early Wynn

And there are a whole bunch of position players who wouldn’t get in now, or only got in because of lax Veterans committee standards. These are just a handful off the top of my head:

Bill Mazeroski
Lloyd Waner
Nellie Fox
Luis Aparicio
George Kell
Harold Baines

It’s certainly a stretch to say Sabathia would instantly be one of the worst HOFers.


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[free2131]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Jack Morris
Jim Bunning
Catfish Hunter

Interesting comparison on these guys, especially when you look at their peaks.



I could have my mind changed on Sabathia and he certainly wouldn't be even close to the worst HOFer.

[Handsome Wes]

Originally Posted by free2131

As far as positional comparisons are concerned, if Jeff Kent isn't a HOFer, then Utley and Pedroia certainly are not.

Kent will probably get in at some point. He probably didn't do himself too many favors by being notorious as a terrible teammate with a bad attitude. He's a guy who had people defending Barry Bonds when he and Bonds had an altercation.

Compare that to Pedroia, who is beloved in Boston and will get David Ortiz's seal of approval, or even Utley - who, while he was unquestionably a jerk, he was beloved by his teammates and fanbase.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by WHyFLy

You're insane if you do not think Molina gets in First Ballot... Greatest Defensive Catcher we've seen since Bench and 2k Hits in career. 10x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x World Series Champ? How the hell does that not get you 1st Ballot?

It’s simple really. Only two catchers in history have gone in on the first ballot. It’s simply rare.

[eye4talent]

Why Posey and Mauer are surefire HOFers:

Posey won an MVP, the ROY, and is the face of a dynasty. (Three World Series titles, especially in this era, is a dynasty.) He also won a batting title.

Mauer won an MVP and three batting titles.

And the key, of course, is that they did these things as catchers—that is what’s crucial, regardless of longevity.

Name a catcher today that could win a batting title or be league MVP. There are some speculative maybes (Gabe Moreno, Francisco Alvarez), but nobody who obviously rises to that level.


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[jduds]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Why Posey and Mauer are surefire HOFers:

Posey won an MVP, the ROY, and is the face of a dynasty. (Three World Series titles, especially in this era, is a dynasty.) He also won a batting title.

Mauer won an MVP and three batting titles.

And the key, of course, is that they did these things as catchers—that is what’s crucial, regardless of longevity.

Name a catcher today that could win a batting title or be league MVP. There are some speculative maybes (Gabe Moreno, Francisco Alvarez), but nobody who obviously rises to that level.


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Adley is currently tied for 4th in AL MVP odds. He seems the most likely to hit that level.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by free2131

Interesting comparison on these guys, especially when you look at their peaks.



I could have my mind changed on Sabathia and he certainly wouldn't be even close to the worst HOFer.

Bunning 39 Shutouts 3.00 ERA
Hunter 38 Shutouts 2.99 ERA
Morris 21 Shutouts 3.55 ERA
Sabathia 12 Shutouts 3.34 ERA

So Sabathia is basically comparable to Jack Morris who has the highest ERA of any pitcher in the HOF.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rats60

Bunning 39 Shutouts 3.00 ERA
Hunter 38 Shutouts 2.99 ERA
Morris 21 Shutouts 3.55 ERA
Sabathia 12 Shutouts 3.34 ERA

So Sabathia is basically comparable to Jack Morris who has the highest ERA of any pitcher in the HOF.

Realistically though Sabathia will eventually get in.

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by Drew3000

If Harold Baines can get in, any of those names can

You really have no clue what you’re talking about. Stephen Vogt has a chance to get in because Harold Baines did???

I hate how Harold Baines has become a punch line for nerds around here.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Realistically though Sabathia will eventually get in.

His career is worthy of the HOF, but he will make it soon because of weak ballots. He wasn't as good as Luis Tiant who isn't in the HOF yet. Same with Dick Allen dying without experiencing HOF election while lesser players get in because of today's weak ballots.

[chilly55]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

You really have no clue what you’re talking about. Stephen Vogt has a chance to get in because Harold Baines did???

I hate how Harold Baines has become a punch line for nerds around here.

He's not a deserving member, that's why he's a punching bag. He was never an elite player, not even close.

In 22 years, never led the league in anything offensive, other than a single slugging percentage in 1984. Never led the league in defense other than committing the most RF errors in 1983 and a single fielding percentage in 1985. Never won a World Series, MVP or even an All-Star game MVP.

Harold Baines is the new Mendoza line for modern HOF voting. So yeah, he deserves to be under the spotlight for getting in having done nothing deserving of being in the HOF.. So when someone says, if Baines gets in, then everyone else just needs to meet the minimum criteria that let Baines in. Not hard to do.

Someone mentioned on here earlier that Andruw Jones should be in, well yeah. If Baines gets in, Andruw is far more serving an OF than Baines. In 5 fewer years, Jones had more home runs, higher slugging and OPS, led the league in one year (2005), more offensive categories than Baines did in his entire career. Let's not get into Jones's defense in the OF and 10 Gold Gloves to Harold's ZERO.

So the running joke of if Baines gets in ......., it is a valid point. Nothing about Baines's career screams HOF, nothing.

Having said that, Beltre, Mauer, Sabathia, I. Suzuki, Molina & Pujols all should get in fairly quickly. Posey, F. Hernandez & Colon most likely will get in at a later date.

[JohnnyAppleseed]

Originally Posted by rats60

Bunning 39 Shutouts 3.00 ERA
Hunter 38 Shutouts 2.99 ERA
Morris 21 Shutouts 3.55 ERA
Sabathia 12 Shutouts 3.34 ERA

So Sabathia is basically comparable to Jack Morris who has the highest ERA of any pitcher in the HOF.

CC has 3k+ strikeouts, 250+ wins, and a Cy.
None of these three players have 3k strikeouts. Only Morris has 250+ wins. Only Catfish has a Cy.
The only players that have over 3k strikeouts that aren't in the Hall at all are Scherzer and Verlander (active and going in), Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling.

[free2131]

Originally Posted by rats60

Bunning 39 Shutouts 3.00 ERA
Hunter 38 Shutouts 2.99 ERA
Morris 21 Shutouts 3.55 ERA
Sabathia 12 Shutouts 3.34 ERA

So Sabathia is basically comparable to Jack Morris who has the highest ERA of any pitcher in the HOF.

Well, a 3.00 ERA in Bunning's and Hunter's era is a LOT different than Sabathia's. That's why Sabathia's ERA+ is higher than the others. You have to adjust for the league averages during the different eras.

Case in point, in 1969, the MLB average slash line was .248/.320/.369/.689 and in 2009 it was .262/.333/.418/.751.

[Silent George]

History says 2-3 players make it in on average every single year.

If you look at 5 years and see 6 players - you’re going to be wrong.

The vets committee votes continuously. And they are eventually going to really like the Wright’s, and the Pedroia’s on these ballots. It may be 2075, but they will.

And pitchers are always undervalued from the generations that came before, and then have their value go up as time goes on. Looking at Lester, and Cole Hamels here.

Finally the “if X isn’t a HOF then Y sure isn’t.” - X may not be a HOF today, but generally if a player is being debated upon, that means they have a really strong case of getting in. You’ll find lots of posts on this board saying “if Fred McGriff isn’t a HOF”. These cases are never closed.

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by chilly55

Nothing about Colon's career screams HOF, nothing.

Fixed this for you. At no point was Colon's career a HOF career. Even his CYA was undeserved. Johan Santana got cheated out of his 3rd. The lowest career ERA that Colon had at the end of a season was 3.86.

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by chilly55

He's not a deserving member, that's why he's a punching bag. He was never an elite player, not even close.

In 22 years, never led the league in anything offensive, other than a single slugging percentage in 1984. Never led the league in defense other than committing the most RF errors in 1983 and a single fielding percentage in 1985. Never won a World Series, MVP or even an All-Star game MVP.

Harold Baines is the new Mendoza line for modern HOF voting. So yeah, he deserves to be under the spotlight for getting in having done nothing deserving of being in the HOF.. So when someone says, if Baines gets in, then everyone else just needs to meet the minimum criteria that let Baines in. Not hard to do.

Someone mentioned on here earlier that Andruw Jones should be in, well yeah. If Baines gets in, Andruw is far more serving an OF than Baines. In 5 fewer years, Jones had more home runs, higher slugging and OPS, led the league in one year (2005), more offensive categories than Baines did in his entire career. Let's not get into Jones's defense in the OF and 10 Gold Gloves to Harold's ZERO.

So the running joke of if Baines gets in ......., it is a valid point. Nothing about Baines's career screams HOF, nothing.

Having said that, Beltre, Mauer, Sabathia, I. Suzuki, Molina & Pujols all should get in fairly quickly. Posey, F. Hernandez & Colon most likely will get in at a later date.

The fact he’s being grouped in with the likes of Stephen Vogt who has a career WAR of 7.4 is the joke.

[Handsome Wes]

I love how every Hall of Fame thread starts with something innocuous like "Ichiro is a no-doubt Hall of Famer!" and then immediately moves into a thunderdome of discussion about how, like Jason Giambi should be in Cooperstown because Jim Bottomley is as well

[Handsome Wes]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

The fact he’s being grouped in with the likes of Stephen Vogt who has a career WAR of 7.4 is the joke.

You can't really say that Baines is being "grouped with" Vogt, because that is an arbitrary grouping created by a doofus. No one is seriously arguing that Vogt is a HOFer, nor are they even comparing him to Baines.

For the last time (alright fine, it won't be the last), Baines would have had 3,000 hits had his career not been interrupted by two strikes. He was a well-regarded teammate that was so liked by fellow players and management that his number was retired while he was still in the prime of his career.

[Wrightfan85]

2024 ELIGIBLES
ADRIÁN BELTRÉ
JOE MAUER
CHASE UTLEY

2025 ELIGIBLES
CC SABATHIA
ICHIRO SUZUKI

2026 ELIGIBLES
None

2027 ELIGIBLES
BUSTER POSEY

2028 ELIGIBLES
YADIER MOLINA
ALBERT PUJOLS_____________

[Timmy Lupus]

Several people have mentioned they think Bartolo Colon is a future Hall of Famer. How exactly is this going to happen? Colon was suspended for 50 games in 2012 for PED use. Even without the PED suspension his numbers are fringy, to say the least.

(And I've already heard all the "what aboutism" re David Ortiz and PEDs. The difference here is that whatever the suspicions were or are about Ortiz, he was never suspended. And whether anyone likes it or not, the difference between suspicions and an actual suspension matters to the writers and to the veterans' committees.)

[free2131]

Originally Posted by Timmy Lupus

Colon was suspended for 50 games in 2012 for PED use. Even without the PED suspension his numbers are fringy, to say the least.

Personally, I don't care about PED use, especially when it involves something like HGH that is mostly just used to help heal faster and get stronger from injury (I'm aware Colon's PED was testosterone). Jeremy Giambi and Jason Grimsley were never going to be elite players with or without them. You still have to have talent. Colon is firmly in the inner circle of the Hall of Very Good based on his talent and numbers.

I also find that a good many of those who are adamantly against PED users getting into the HOF due to the "morality clause" also think Pete Rose should be let in. I will be happy to entertain using the morality clause to keep out PED users as soon as we kick out all the bigots, abusers, racists, and actual cheaters. You'd have more of an argument with me for keeping Sammy Sosa out of the HOF due to his corked bat than his PED use.

[Timmy Lupus]

Originally Posted by free2131

Personally, I don't care about PED use, especially when it involves something like HGH that is mostly just used to help heal faster and get stronger from injury (I'm aware Colon's PED was testosterone). Jeremy Giambi and Jason Grimsley were never going to be elite players with or without them. You still have to have talent. Colon is firmly in the inner circle of the Hall of Very Good based on his talent and numbers.

I also find that a good many of those who are adamantly against PED users getting into the HOF due to the "morality clause" also think Pete Rose should be let in. I will be happy to entertain using the morality clause to keep out PED users as soon as we kick out all the bigots, abusers, racists, and actual cheaters. You'd have more of an argument with me for keeping Sammy Sosa out of the HOF due to his corked bat than his PED use.

I agree that Colon is in the Hall of Very Good and I don't know enough about the lifetime ban on Pete Rose to have an opinion on it. I have to say, however, that in my opinion PED use is definitely a subset of the category which is "actual cheaters." I think the integrity/character clause is there for a reason and it needs to mean something.

I agree with you that there should be no place in the HOF for the bigots, abusers, racists, and actual cheaters. There appears to be some evidence that more than one 20th century baseball HOF inductee was in the KKK, and that is a sad and very problematic reflection on the HOF and this country, to be sure. It raises some important questions about America's history and how we deal with it in 2023, and I'm not sure what the answers are.

If I had a BBWAA ballot and had to think about how the integrity clause would affect my vote, I would be a lot more distressed about an actual member of a domestic terrorist hate group getting to Cooperstown than a PED user getting there.