What’s it going to take to revitalize the NBA card hobby?

[Nomad]

So forget the team concept, the legacy players, the shades of greatness, we need another money-vacuum hype name.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by blackvodka

Since Wemby has cooled off Copper Flagg has to be legit. The hobby needs that guy. Jordan hasn't had any cards in his Bulls Uni since 09. Kobe hasn't had any cards since his untimely passing. LeBron seems to have fallen a bit and isn't that guy anymore. There are a few tier 2 guys right now (Curry, Joker, Giannis, SGA, Luka, maybe Tatum?) and tier 2 hof'ers (Magic, Bird, Kareem, Shaq) but no tier one right now.

Wemby was that guy for a bit but that passed. As crazy ad it sounds, LeBron isn't that level anymore excluding a few key rc's/exquisite.

His 2024 Prizm gold is selling in the $25-50k range, and his 2012 Prizm gold just sold for over a half million

Just the past 2 months in public auctions:
2016 Prizm Gold: $28k
2006 Credentials Now: $93k
2012 Prizm Silver BGS 10: $20k
2013 Kaboom PSA 10: $43k
2020 Prizm Gold Shimmer: $20k
2015 Galactic: $24k

I'm not quite sure you're on the mark here.

[Giantrobot]

Stop charging $300 for every hobby box and $30 for every blaster that 90% of the time gives you back $10 or less worth of cards.

That would be a start.

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by Giantrobot

Stop charging $300 for every hobby box and $30 for every blaster that 90% of the time gives you back $10 or less worth of cards.

That would be a start.

I agree with this, but is this not the same in baseball? Isn't wax overpriced, overprinted, and terrible value? Yet seemingly with every release, there's a bunch of people from that forum ripping some form of hobby or retail. I wonder why the discrepancy/what's different?

Also note, despite being one of the most active "hobby talk" places online, very few responses have much to do with anything but how much cards are selling for. Imo, that's the main issue in addition to wax prices. Basketball is too market focused rather than collecting/card focused

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by volblorx8634

I agree with this, but is this not the same in baseball? Isn't wax overpriced, overprinted, and terrible value? Yet seemingly with every release, there's a bunch of people from that forum ripping some form of hobby or retail. I wonder why the discrepancy/what's different?

Also note, despite being one of the most active "hobby talk" places online, very few responses have much to do with anything but how much cards are selling for. Imo, that's the main issue in addition to wax prices. Basketball is too market focused rather than collecting/card focused

The poor ROI has also been the way things are pretty much any time other than a brief period between 2017-2020.

Even then, starting in 2019, things got hard to find at SRP.

[kipgen]

Wax isn't overpriced if people are willing to pay for it

We'll know wax is too expensive when people stop buying it and the price goes down (like what happened this year with prizm '24-25)

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The poor ROI has also been the way things are pretty much any time other than a brief period between 2017-2020.

Even then, starting in 2019, things got hard to find at SRP.

But that’s different now that SRP is 2X-4X what it used to be. Terrible ROI on a $60 hoops box is a lot different than a $130 hoops box. Same with a $100 Prizm box vs $500


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[blackvodka]

Originally Posted by Nomad

So forget the team concept, the legacy players, the shades of greatness, we need another money-vacuum hype name.

The team concepts along legacy players and shades of greatness are awesome, and real collectors love that stuff. Sadly, it's a small percentage of collectors. It doesn't really sell wax. It's just the reality of where things are at right now.

I don't really have many complaints. I'm aware that breakers have WAY overinflated the price of wax, and I avoid breaks like the plague and stick to singles. For these people, yes, a money- vacumm hype player will be what they are looking for. Let them crazy overpay and grab the better cards on the cheap.

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[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Nomad

They will also get a lot more exposure this playoffs. It's gradual.

People in NY now have history with Pacers, seeing them as the villain series stealers of last year. Indy is a really fun team to watch and only this year got a few marquee television games.

Cavs didn't really get any attention until this season.

OKC was seen as bland. It still is by those who haven't seen them recently.

The rivalries need time to build and gel, particularly among teams that can keep the basic core together a few seasons. Denver was not really a fun team and they lost three key pieces directly after winning. Boston will have a huge target, a lot of people will tune in to whatever series they play, rooting for the underdog.

Knicks have really developed a fanbase. I always thought their fans were anemic and conditioned to losing. Now they are loud and annoying. And Warriors and Lakers have their west coast adherents, both are interesting teams with a good mix of veteran stars.

Can dealers explain that to collectors? Should they have that responsibility?

I'm still not sure exactly what you want to happen here. What responsibility? Collectors see a player, they go "whoa who is that" and want to buy his cards, or they're unimpressed and they don't.

Unfortunately, money is a finite resource and not every player (or every card) is made equally and so will not have equal desire. What you're describing sounds like you're crafting some kind of narrative for dealers to sell to collectors in order to get them to buy bums that literally nobody will remember in five years.

[Nomad]

Nah, nothing like that. But you could feature stuff in cases as sets that takes some time to build up and is a good starter to expand from.

An example, the way I am thinking of doing it, is breaking the Nesmith collection into lots associated with each brand. None is like a rainbow, most have even rarer versions of cards out there that would make the collection greater.

But like the Optic rookie set would have the green dragon, a true gold, a gold disco, a black laser, a jersey number. Stuff that it would take years to find and put together on one's own.

A collector would consider the lot real value for $500 or whatever, even if they don't see a lot of market hype for Nesmith per se. As with a lot of early-mid-career players, you could point to upward potential and future profits.

Now I am such a collector and have invested so little, I would rather trade for like of a similar player. OG Anunoby. Diversify.

That's one way to move product when singles of players aren't moving. Get a meaningful set together, tell a story. Some of the older dealers in the baseball-centric shows probably have that angle going. Team sets. Binders.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by volblorx8634

But that’s different now that SRP is 2X-4X what it used to be. Terrible ROI on a $60 hoops box is a lot different than a $130 hoops box. Same with a $100 Prizm box vs $500


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And the stuff you get it in is still multiples of what it sold for pre-2017.

I'm thinking back to 2016... for $20 you could get a blaster of Prizm and really the only base card you could get your money back on was a Ben Simmons rookie... and his Silver might have gotten you $75 raw (PSA 10s were between $300 and $200 that year). That was the top card.

I'm looking through my COMC purchase history.. back in 2017 LeBron Prizm Silvers were going for $1.5-$2.0. At least now if you hit one you have a $20 card.

So now you might pay $30 for a blaster and only get $20 in value, but back they you were paying $20 and only getting $10 back. It's always been a losing prop.

[Giantrobot]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Wax isn't overpriced if people are willing to pay for it

We'll know wax is too expensive when people stop buying it and the price goes down (like what happened this year with prizm '24-25)

They have…that’s why stuff is sitting on the shelves again at Wal-Mart.

[Giantrobot]

Originally Posted by volblorx8634

But that’s different now that SRP is 2X-4X what it used to be. Terrible ROI on a $60 hoops box is a lot different than a $130 hoops box. Same with a $100 Prizm box vs $500


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Exactly. It’s not much fun throwing away that much money on a regular basis. Which is why I don’t anymore. I used to buy multiple hobby boxes a month. I might open 5-10 the entire year now.

[BostonNut]

Will never happen with players jumping ship every two years to join up with another new combo. The NBA will never be what it once was unless DRASTIC changes are made.

Originally Posted by Nomad

They will also get a lot more exposure this playoffs. It's gradual.

People in NY now have history with Pacers, seeing them as the villain series stealers of last year. Indy is a really fun team to watch and only this year got a few marquee television games.

Cavs didn't really get any attention until this season.

OKC was seen as bland. It still is by those who haven't seen them recently.

The rivalries need time to build and gel, particularly among teams that can keep the basic core together a few seasons. Denver was not really a fun team and they lost three key pieces directly after winning. Boston will have a huge target, a lot of people will tune in to whatever series they play, rooting for the underdog.

Knicks have really developed a fanbase. I always thought their fans were anemic and conditioned to losing. Now they are loud and annoying. And Warriors and Lakers have their west coast adherents, both are interesting teams with a good mix of veteran stars.

Can dealers explain that to collectors? Should they have that responsibility?

[gomiamigo]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Not just the “next one” but the stimulus that will get the people loving all of the NBA again, including the vets, ie, the entire NBA package.

Analytics have made the sport mostly unwatchable. Nobody wants to see a team miss 40 3s in a game. It has ruined the product.

On top of that you have Curry, Lebron, Durant aging out and Embiid always hurt now. Those are 4/5 best players in the NBA the last several years.

[BlowoutBuzz]

The "can't-miss" phenoms need to actually deliver and stay on court. That's one big part of it.

[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by BlowoutBuzz

The "can't-miss" phenoms need to actually deliver and stay on court. That's one big part of it.

Good luck getting rid of "load management."

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Analytics have made the sport mostly unwatchable. Nobody wants to see a team miss 40 3s in a game. It has ruined the product.

On top of that you have Curry, Lebron, Durant aging out and Embiid always hurt now. Those are 4/5 best players in the NBA the last several years.

The 3’s are a major problem. It’s a lazy way to plod through the regular season and preserve health for the playoffs.

It’s yet another sign the players show they don’t care about the regular season, they are just trying to stay healthy enough for the big contracts.

[Beavers98]

Originally Posted by Giantrobot

Stop charging $300 for every hobby box and $30 for every blaster that 90% of the time gives you back $10 or less worth of cards.

That would be a start.

This is where I'm at too. I haven't bought an NBA Hobby box in 5 years. I can see an increase, as everything has gone up, but at any given time before that you could go find say status, donruss etc for around $40, sometimes cheaper. I'm not paying $300+ for that type of break. I mean, look at the beak section. It used to be once a new product dropped you could post a break and by the afternoon you might be on page 3. Now page 1 can easily be 3 months behind and without wnba prizm it might be 4, and most of the listings are retail not even hobby. Sorry for the rant. Long way of saying I agree.

[jjcan]

I think once we get a new wave of a good Rookie class on top of TOPPS Licensed autos people can start to forget about all the parallels from PRIZM, OPTIC, ETC.

Too many of today's stars burned a LOT of collectors who turned into primarily investors. While the Collectors are still around, the Investors are just staying around the Low hanging fruit MJ, Kobe, Curry, Lebron etc, and any soon to be HOF (Jokic).

Money in non auto Prizm rcs, and or last 5 year rookies have not been kind to the poket book.

[Nomad]

So now is the time to invest in those undervalued 2019-22 rookies that you think have this window to actually emerge. But to do that you need to do a Brunson and look beyond the obvious.

[spurs50fan]

Is there a healthy medium between investor and collector? Investors had a major run but it priced out and disinterested your everyday (or occasional) collector. Particularly in basketball because the player pool is low. Even looking at some of the "advocates", they run through boxes like it's the 10th hour on the assembly line Bring back some of that zeal we had and you may find a resurrection.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by Nomad

So now is the time to invest in those undervalued 2019-22 rookies that you think have this window to actually emerge. But to do that you need to do a Brunson and look beyond the obvious.

Maybe?:

Basketball is so hard to speculate afterwards 4 years+ out. Unless the person is just on a bad team. Usually for Basketball it seems the Cream rises to the TOP fast.

Like just the Hall of Famers and perennial all stars they were always good early.

So hard to collect (invest good money) when the player will be as good as a Bradley Beal or Jimmy Butler but is that (All Star) worth investing in, flipping I guess (Sell the good years)? Brunson is great, if he was not in New York does he just fall in the All star flavor of the year bucket?

I guess Giannis, and a hurt Curry you had 2-3 years to speculate before they were Fire.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by spurs50fan

Even looking at some of the "advocates", they run through boxes like it's the 10th hour on the assembly line Bring back some of that zeal we had and you may find a resurrection.

They not only run through the line, they brag about it. "19 hours of Imacc? I'm good, done 24 before with Deca."

Liking these Wemby GU duals, by the way.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Nomad

So now is the time to invest in those undervalued 2019-22 rookies that you think have this window to actually emerge. But to do that you need to do a Brunson and look beyond the obvious.

Those years are so undesirable because they will never reach Covid price levels ever again.

Most people would prefer to just forget about the overproduction and overparallelization.