I would not buy Topps Kobe RC as an investment card

[MyckKabongo]

People greatly overestimate the degree to which gradable low end stuff from the 90s has been graded. Have 9.5/10s fetched a premium that would justify grading for a long time? Yes.... but catching a 9 or heaven forbid an 8 usually meant you lost money. It wasn't until very recently that it made sense to take on that risk for a whole lot of cards.

Not everyone in this hobby fancies themselves an eagle eye or is spending hours going through 5000 ct boxes of low end base with a loupe and microfiber and subbing every possible 10. A lot of people still don't grade period.

Condition sensitive, higher end stuff is a different story. But a card that until fairly recently was considered 5-10 dollar box fodder? I'll take the bet that there are still plenty of raw gems. Let me caveat that it wouldn't surprise me if PSA pop controls this going forward.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

People greatly overestimate the degree to which gradable low end stuff from the 90s has been graded. Have 9.5/10s fetched a premium that would justify grading for a long time? Yes.... but catching a 9 or heaven forbid an 8 usually meant you lost money. It wasn't until very recently that it made sense to take on that risk for a whole lot of cards.

Not everyone in this hobby fancies themselves an eagle eye or is spending hours going through 5000 ct boxes of low end base with a loupe and microfiber and subbing every possible 10. A lot of people still don't grade period.

Condition sensitive, higher end stuff is a different story. But a card that until fairly recently was considered 5-10 dollar box fodder? I'll take the bet that there are still plenty of raw gems. Let me caveat that it wouldn't surprise me if PSA pop controls this going forward.

Wait a minute, you’re telling me the card that was fetching $25-$30 in a PSA 9 days before Kobe’s unfortunate crash and would barely net any profit wasn’t being graded???

The same Kobe PSA 9 that didn’t break $10 consistently until 15 years after release?

You think THAT’S the reason people weren’t grading these in bulk????

Big if true!

[TheGZA]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

Not everyone in this hobby fancies themselves an eagle eye or is spending hours going through 5000 ct boxes of low end base with a loupe and microfiber and subbing every possible 10. A lot of people still don't grade period.

Love this. I don't like how people assume any raw cards on eBay must be flawed in some way.....yes, most likely the seller is leaving money on the table in many cases by not grading, but some of us just don't want to bother with the process.

[jzx1103]

Well it'll be very interesting to revisit this thread a year from now. I'm sort of in the middle on this one. I definitely don't think current prices for this card can hold, which is why I'm eagerly waiting to get my 3 copies back that I sent to psa hoping I can still get close to current prices for it within the next 2 months, but regardless its a win for me as I got 2 of my copies as throw ins from Kobe lots I bought, and the 3rd copy was sitting in my closet the past 20 years. On the other hand I dont believe this card will ever come close to previous bargain bin prices again unless we have an apocalyptic sports card market crash that's worse than the junk wax crash in the early 90s. I think once it drops it'll settle around the $100 range for raw and $400 to $500 for psa 9s, and $2k for psa 10s. Kobes death and how long before they can start making Kobe cards again will also play a factor

[regularp]

Originally Posted by TheGZA

Love this. I don't like how people assume any raw cards on eBay must be flawed in some way.....yes, most likely the seller is leaving money on the table in many cases by not grading, but some of us just don't want to bother with the process.

But certain cards, like this one, will lead to skepticism because of the price for graded versions. I would operate under the assumption that almost no raws on eBay would gem. It's just too much money being left on the table, even if people "don't want to bother with the process."

This isn't $300-400 we're talking about. This is 3-5 months worth of rent/mortgage now.

[Springerj23]

2 comments
Bought an 08 Chrome Kobe raw off ebay in June, It Gemmed!

Sold PSA 9 Topps Kobe on here today for current market prices! So all the conspiracy theory here can stop. It was paid for!

So yes, this, that, and all of it doesn’t make sense sometimes, but anything is possible, especially in today’s world.

[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by Springerj23

2 comments
Bought an 08 Chrome Kobe raw off ebay in June, It Gemmed!

Sold PSA 9 Topps Kobe on here today for current market prices! So all the conspiracy theory here can stop. It was paid for!

So yes, this, that, and all of it doesn’t make sense sometimes, but anything is possible, especially in today’s world.

Best quote of this thread right here.

[kevbojones]

Nothing in the hobby makes sense right now

Got my brother a 96 Kobe PSA 10 for $200 last November for his birthday.

I picked up a raw Kobe for $10 around the same time

Kobe's tragic death was really the catalyst for the exponential gains we are seeing on an almost hourly basis at this point. Yes things were getting crazy, but again NOTHING makes sense in the hobby right now.

I guess we should just enjoy the ride

[regularp]

Originally Posted by kevbojones

Nothing in the hobby makes sense right now

Got my brother a 96 Kobe PSA 10 for $200 last November for his birthday.

I picked up a raw Kobe for $10 around the same time

Kobe's tragic death was really the catalyst for the exponential gains we are seeing on an almost hourly basis at this point. Yes things were getting crazy, but again NOTHING makes sense in the hobby right now.

I guess we should just enjoy the ride

Except these gains happened quite a few months after his death. It's just the market catching up. No current player besides LeBron should be priced higher than Kobe.

[shootit]

Originally Posted by regularp

Except these gains happened quite a few months after his death. It's just the market catching up. No current player besides LeBron should be priced higher than Kobe.

Fax Kobe top 3 and he ain’t 3rd. And I collect lebron as my main pc lol


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[biggieruth]

Originally Posted by libruary

Those pumpers in here are so silly.

Keep trying to prove a 1996 Topps base cards is rare at all. I know people that have sat on those Kobe's forever and still haven't graded them. I have busted several boxes of these and all of mine came with perfect centering, most of the cards did, perhaps I got lucky?

The simplest explanation is that the card is super mass produced and the fact that this was a $10 card for over ten years has affected the population reports. Those with the card are showing up in this thread to manipulate people into buying their terrible investment card.

Quote me in a year, baby

I agree with you I seen stacks of these cards in flea markets and goodwills. I feel sorry for the suckers and idiots holding the bag on some these cards. If you pay over $500 for this card graded your not a smart person and will be burned in 2-3 years.

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[Willikn]

Originally Posted by Springerj23

Bought an 08 Chrome Kobe raw off ebay in June, It Gemmed!

Not sure what the take away should be. If you are suggesting that people can expect PSA 10s when buying raw cards from 2008, I would disagree. Of course it can happen. I've purchased two LeBron RCs raw in the last six months that received BGS 9.5. Two terrific scores. Not the usual result and certainly not what I expect when buying raw.

Originally Posted by Springerj23

Sold PSA 9 Topps Kobe on here today for current market prices! So all the conspiracy theory here can stop. It was paid for!

So yes, this, that, and all of it doesn’t make sense sometimes, but anything is possible, especially in today’s world.

I don't know that one sale is indisputable proof of something. I do congratulate you on your sale.

Can't speak for others. I found it alarming that this card appeared to rise 250% in the course of five calendar days. Last week of July. It was that period that remains questionable. It seems that jump has been accepted.. for now.

Tons of examples, but an Emmitt Smith Fleer Update RC made a similar nonsensical jump. April maybe? It held for about a month. Maybe two. It has now lost about 60% of its gain. There we weren't talking thousands of dollars per so it probably slid under most radars.

I don't know what's going to happen with this Kobe card. The LeBron paper Topps Icon Flagship timeless beauty is much higher. If that thing is $9k, then Kobe at $6k is probably right. Just not right for me is all.

[Springerj23]

I was just suggesting that blanket statements of nothing raw on Ebay will GEM and sales are fake is not the cold hard truth. There are always outliers for everything. Everyone has to do their own research, and make their own decisions. Living by blanket statements on the internet will not get you very far is where I was going...

[DajuanWagner]

Originally Posted by biggieruth

I agree with you I seen stacks of these cards in flea markets and goodwills. I feel sorry for the suckers and idiots holding the bag on some these cards. If you pay over $500 for this card graded your not a smart person and will be burned in 2-3 years.

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I need to move to North Carolina so I can go to those flea markets and goodwills……...

[GatorPie]

Again, I'll bet there are THOUSANDS of these cards currently at the big 3 grading companies. The market is about to be completely flooded. If you've got one, move it NOW.

[shootit]

Originally Posted by biggieruth

I agree with you I seen stacks of these cards in flea markets and goodwills. I feel sorry for the suckers and idiots holding the bag on some these cards. If you pay over $500 for this card graded your not a smart person and will be burned in 2-3 years.

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Well lebron equivalent 221 psa 9 is selling for 2k so 500 ain’t bad for a kobe

Feels a whole lot like salt cus u didn’t see the value and take adv of it when u could’ve lol

And I don’t even own any of those Kobe’s. Jus pointing out fax as a neutral bystander

It’s the same reason that lebron rookie in a 9 costs more then what I paid for a lebron rookie /199 bgs 9, yesterday long as market keeps like this it’s all good for me man


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[jzx1103]

Originally Posted by GatorPie

Again, I'll bet there are THOUSANDS of these cards currently at the big 3 grading companies. The market is about to be completely flooded. If you've got one, move it NOW.

I bet theres more sitting in people's closets instead of grading companies. I have a friend who I know has a few from our childhood. When I asked him about it a few days ago. He said they're somewhere in the house but he's not about to turn his house upside down to look for em lol.

[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by shootit

Well lebron equivalent 221 psa 9 is selling for 2k so 500 ain’t bad for a kobe

Feels a whole lot like salt cus u didn’t see the value and take adv of it when u could’ve lol

And I don’t even own any of those Kobe’s. Jus pointing out fax as a neutral bystander

It’s the same reason that lebron rookie in a 9 costs more then what I paid for a lebron rookie /199 bgs 9, yesterday long as market keeps like this it’s all good for me man


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People didnt see the value because the card had no value/demand for 23 years. Now the card has been manipulated to 50x the value in 6 months. Nothing suss!


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[shootit]

Originally Posted by chuckerrrr

People didnt see the value because the card had no/demand for 23 years. Now the card has been manipulated to 50x the value in 6 months. Nothing suss!


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More so the bass > print run market paradigm happened


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[hairyangryfella]

Originally Posted by shootit

More so the bass > print run market paradigm happened


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I fail to understand how a guitar or fish has anything to do with a print run of cards...

[hairyangryfella]

Originally Posted by rats60

Keep posing your nonsense. PSA 10 Kobe RC populations
Bowman’s Best 1141
Collectors Choice 349
Finest 2531
Showcase 58
Fleer 253
Hoops 436
Metal 114
EX2000 22
Skybox 541
ZForce 200
SP 858
Stadium 223
Topps 2235
Ultra 288
Upper Deck 726

If Topps is so rare and hard to grade, why are the pops on other paper RCs so low compared to the Topps? Most collectors from the 90s don’t grade their base. It is easy to say make x dollars grading and getting 10s, but the flip side is lose money when they come back 9 and sell at raw price. This grade all your base RCs is a new phenomena with today’s collectors. And we haven’t addressed the elephant in the room. What happens to the pop when the card doctors target this card and start turning raw and 9s into 10s. At today’s price and if the price holds, it is just a matter of when.

I find these numbers staggering. The Finest, notorious for poor centering and seemingly less likely to gem if peel stays on, has that many 10s..?
Either way, the value of the low end Topps should not be up near or above the high end Finest.

[shootit]

Originally Posted by hairyangryfella

I fail to understand how a guitar or fish has anything to do with a print run of cards...

Has everything to do wit it


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[lseecon]

Originally Posted by rats60

Keep posing your nonsense. PSA 10 Kobe RC populations
Bowman’s Best 1141
Collectors Choice 349
Finest 2531
Showcase 58
Fleer 253
Hoops 436
Metal 114
EX2000 22
Skybox 541
ZForce 200
SP 858
Stadium 223
Topps 2235
Ultra 288
Upper Deck 726

If Topps is so rare and hard to grade, why are the pops on other paper RCs so low compared to the Topps? Most collectors from the 90s don’t grade their base. It is easy to say make x dollars grading and getting 10s, but the flip side is lose money when they come back 9 and sell at raw price. This grade all your base RCs is a new phenomena with today’s collectors. And we haven’t addressed the elephant in the room. What happens to the pop when the card doctors target this card and start turning raw and 9s into 10s. At today’s price and if the price holds, it is just a matter of when.

Thought it was a good time to bump this thread and check the pop report of the flagship topps rookie card, because certainly in the past three months, there must have been thousands and thousands of new PSA 10s graded according to some of the "savants" who post on these boards.

So three months later, only about 300 more PSA 10s graded? WTF? During the biggest price explosion of modern basketball cards in history? What happened to those thousands of gem mint raw Kobe 96 topps rookies that are sitting in boxes to be graded?

Even I am surprised the pop report on 10s has not budged very much during this period. Certainly, those who are sitting on hundreds and thousands of gem mint 10 raw Kobe flagship rookies have been jumping at the chance the last three months to pay $200 2 day service to get those cards graded a psa 10 and turn a $30 raw card into a $2,000 plus graded card before the other thousands of kobes get graded........

Have prices of Kobe rookie cards dropped like all basketball rookie cards the last three months----of course.......

is it because of a huge increase in the supply of PSA 10 1996 Topps Topps cards. Of course not.

Still crazy to me that there are only 2600 PSA 10 base topps Kobe rookie cards graded.
Compare that to the 10,000 plus PSA 10 base rookie cards of Zion and Luka and Ja Morant......

But hey there are thousands and thousands of these just waiting to get graded PSA 10------lets bump this again in a year and see how foolish some of these people bashing the iconic topps kobe rookie card are because there are thousands just out there waiting to become psa 10s.

[k13]

Just cause something is rare doesn't mean people want it.

[90skid]

I started tracking the PSA 9 and 10 pop of Kobe's Topps Base and NBA 50th parallel on a daily basis, since 8/18/20 to see how the population has been. Here's where it stands:

1996 Topps #138 Base:
8/18/20
PSA 9: 5,604
PSA 10: 2,243

11/21/20
PSA 9: 7,439 (+1,835 new in 95 days)
PSA 10: 2,575 (+332 new in 95 days)
2,575

Total Pop Count Comparison: 10,670 vs 14,404 (+3,734 new in 95 days)


The NBA 50th Parallel has been interesting, PSA must have literally the strictest ruleset for a GEM 10 on it, because in those 95 days since I've been tracking, not a single new PSA 10 has popped.

1996 Topps NBA 50th #138
8/18/20
PSA 9: 248
PSA 10: 67

11/21/20
PSA 9: 281 (+33 new in 95 days)
PSA 10: 67 (+0 new)

Total Pop Count Comparison: 618 vs 726 (+108 new in 95 days)