HOF Pace Tracker

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Only the absolute, very best players can really lock HOF by that 28-29 range - Mookie, Trout, and probably Soto will. Everyone else has to have some sort of career into their early 30s - and generally more like mid 30s, as we've seen with guys like Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen, and Giancarlo Stanton that seemed like absolute locks at age 28 and who have little chance of getting in on the BBWAA ballot now.

Maybe people that follow this more closely can tell me....

Why would Stanton have little chance of making it into the Hall?

With 16 HRs this year he's at 418 for his career. The Batting average is low, but he still has a ton of power that should keep him in the league getting at bats for a few years. Let's say he even slows down his pace and hits another 16 this year, putting him at 434 at year end. He's got 3 more years on his current deal.

As I look at the all time HR list, there's only one guy north of 464 HRs not in the Hall who isnt affiliated with cheating: Carlos Delgado. WAR is the measure they are identical in, but other than that Stanton has a few things going for him over Delgado, including an MVP and MVP runner up.

So my question is: if Stanton gets to 475 does he get left out, and if he gets to 500 is there any way he doesn't get in (other than a cheating scandal)?