2022 Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by JRX

I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.

Career over is obviously a major overstatement...but his values have always been out of whack. I literally just bought a Corey Seager orange auto PSA 9 for less than the last Dominguez blue or green shimmer auto PSA 9s went for...and one of those guys just got a $300M contract. You could say similar things about Nolan Arenado, or Carlos Correa, or Manny Machado, or pretty much any player whose 1st Bowman auto was from 2009 to 2015 that isn't Mike Trout or Mookie Betts.

There's an extremely real chance that Dominguez winds up as a player that's in the major leagues for like 4 years and has less than 5 career WAR. Or he could make the HOF someday. The issue isn't the talent - it's the probabilities involved. People have seen the Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad group and gotten way out of line with how likely it is for other prospects to repeat that stuff.

I've been building a trade target list of 1st Bowman/Bowman RC autos - mostly players that have been in the majors a while and have some solid HOF chances - and have been going through all the Bowman checklists for the last decade. It's grisly. There's going to be so much value go up in smoke on Bowman autos from 2019-2021. If someone doesn't have an absolute emotional need to own these prospect cards, I would encourage them to sell and reacquire when the players are 27 - they could have really good careers and they will likely STILL be cheaper than now unless they're going to be a pantheon kind of player.