Print Runs on 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors

[dev6015]

I've been looking for any data I can find on these and haven't seen anything. While this falls pretty low on the scale of Hobby Importance, its January, we're in a baseball work stoppage, and this is something I've been super interested in as a child of the 90's who grew up idolizing this set. I'm publicizing my research to the crack team here at Blowout to see if 1) anyone else cares (lol) and 2) you all can build on my analysis any more.

I used two data points to try to crack the case:

1. 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor Population Report

To forecast the total number of 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors, I made some guesses based on graded pop report numbers of the #80 Derek Jeter refractor. PSA 8's are selling for $3K and PSA 9's are selling for $4,500, so its hard to believe there are too many left out there not graded. Using that assumption (and it is definitely an assumption), here is the total graded population at the three major grading companies for the biggest card in the set.

Derek Jeter (#80) Total Pop
PSA: 83
BGS: 27
SGC: 6
Total: 116

Obviously some of these have been cracked and re-subbed over the years, but 116 seems like a reasonable starting point. Further supporting the notion that the majority of these cards are graded, I looked at recent eBay listings and sales...

eBay stats (last three months)
Raw: 0 listed or sold
Graded (any TPG): 5 listed, 4 sold

2. Pop Reports of Premium 90's Serial Numbered Parallel Sets

One way we can guess the print run of an unnumbered parallel set is to benchmark it against the pop reports of similar sets that happen to be serial numbered or have stated print runs. Two of these that immediately spring to mind are 1993 Finest Refractors (not serial numbered, but announced print run) and 1996 Select Certified (many options, but I use Mirror Red #/90 as their current graded pop is closest to current pop reports of 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors). Print runs come from Baseball Card Pedia.

1993 Topps Finest Ken Griffey Jr (#110) pop report (print run = 241)
PSA: 217
BGS: 61
SGC: 8
Total: 286 (118% of print run graded) - clearly lots of cracks and re-subs...or the print run is wrong.

1996 Select Certified Mirror Red Derek Jeter (#100) pop report (print run = 90)
PSA: 59
BGS: 17
SGC: 1
Total: 77 (85.6% of print run graded)

Conclusion:
Using these two metrics, it appears that the majority of the copies of the premier players in the 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor set have already been graded. I don't think 1996 TC Refractors are as desirable as 1993 Finest Refractors, but perhaps on par with Select Certified Mirror Reds (although I was an 8 year old collector in 1996, so if someone wants to convince me that Mirror Reds are/were way more desirable than Topps Chrome Refractors, we can talk).

Because of this, I'm comfortable assuming the same graded proportion of total print run for 1996 Topps Chrome Refractors as we see for 1996 Select Certified Mirror Red (85.6%). Using the Jeter TC Refractor total graded pop of 116, that would imply a print run of approximately 135 of each card in the 1996 Topps Chrome Refractor set.

Where did I mess up. What did I do wrong?

Disclaimer: I own a raw Griffey refractor (#70) and a PSA 9 Chipper Jones (#53) refractor. I am trying to collect more in the set, although this post will probably not help me in that quest

Also, here's some eye candy for anyone who has made it this far.