He hit 30 HR in the minors this year! AND!....BUT...

marterburn · 10-08-2021, 01:53 PM

Sure, it's an arbitrary benchmark. But it's an interesting thing to look at, since HR probably the single thing we care most about for the hobby & the list is short enough to digest. Here we go, under 26 is the only parameter not shown:

MJ Melendez (41 HR, AA/AAA) AND answered the "will he ever hit" question really & truly. Regardless of where he goes defensively, he looks like hit bat will play anywhere. Imagine saying that 6 months ago! ...BUT will the Royals mess with his call-up because he doesn't have a defensive home that has playing time available? I was shocked that the Royals didn't want to see more 3B from him in the AFL. But maybe 9 games was enough for them?

Nick Pratto (36 HR, AA/AAA) AND like Melendez, cemented himself as a top 5 prospect at his position. ...BUT his 28.8 K% is a bit concerning.

Griffin Conine (35 HR, A+/AA) AND it's good to see him keep showing ability to hit HR as he moves up levels ...BUT he doesn't look great at anything but power. The 22 SwStr% is awful, the 40 K% is awful, and his 12.6 BB% isn't enough to offset a low .200's BA.

Bobby Witt Jr (33 HR, AA/AAA) AND will likely be MiLB POY. I don't need to expand on it ...BUT but nothing. There's nothing here to indicate he won't be a star in the majors as soon as next year.

Andy Pages (31 HR, A+) AND was the youngest to do it. He's more than that though. His SwStr% was 11.9% & his BB% was 14.3% -- for 20 YO power bat, that's elite ...BUT if the Dodgers try to tweak his approach to tap into more hit tool, it could cost him some power. It's a quite minor thing. This is the third most impressive performer on this list, in my book.

Oscar Gonzalez (31 HR, AA/AAA) AND proved you don't need a good plate approach to perform. His BA was higher than anyone not named Miranda here ...BUT will he be able to continue this? Seems like he's just going to be exposed more as he plays a full season at AAA. What differentiates him from other low BB% guys is his 17.9 SwStr%.

Dermis Garcia (31 HR, AA) AND well, you know, a 30 HR season is good regardles of anything else! ...BUT nothing he did indicates he can succeed in the majors. 19.4 SwStr%, 37.9 K%, .210 BA, .307 OBP are all overwhelming negatives.

Brandon Lewis (30 HR, A/A+) AND did it in 70 fewer PA's than anyone here without a crazy high K% ...BUT that K% is still pretty darn high (30.4%) and he wasn't playing at a high level for his age (though his performance was actually better in A+)

Spencer Torkelson (30 HR, A+/AA/AAA) AND showed us all what we want to see - that he's a legit power bat in addition to being a great hitter for average...BUT is he a great average hitter? It looks good under the hood but the overall results are just a .267 BA.

Brendon Davis (30 HR. A+/AA/AAA) AND in doing so showed up out of nowhere (this is a 2015 draftee!) to put himself on the map as a guy that's quite likely to reach the majors ...BUT is it real? He's 24 now -- is this just another Jaylin Davis?

Jose Miranda (30 HR, AA/AAA) AND led the all the minors in hits & hit .344, .051 higher than anyone else here ....BUT he hits a ton of line drives & has a sub 30% FB -- it means that while he's likely to be a great hitter, unless hits hits laser HR's consistently, he's more likely to be a consistent 20-25 HR guy than a 30+ HR guy.

10-08-2021, 01:53 PM	#1
marterburn Member Join Date: May 2018 Location: Milwaukee area Posts: 4,719 burnmax12 burnmax12	He hit 30 HR in the minors this year! AND!....BUT... Sure, it's an arbitrary benchmark. But it's an interesting thing to look at, since HR probably the single thing we care most about for the hobby & the list is short enough to digest. Here we go, under 26 is the only parameter not shown: MJ Melendez (41 HR, AA/AAA) AND answered the "will he ever hit" question really & truly. Regardless of where he goes defensively, he looks like hit bat will play anywhere. Imagine saying that 6 months ago! ...BUT will the Royals mess with his call-up because he doesn't have a defensive home that has playing time available? I was shocked that the Royals didn't want to see more 3B from him in the AFL. But maybe 9 games was enough for them? Nick Pratto (36 HR, AA/AAA) AND like Melendez, cemented himself as a top 5 prospect at his position. ...BUT his 28.8 K% is a bit concerning. Griffin Conine (35 HR, A+/AA) AND it's good to see him keep showing ability to hit HR as he moves up levels ...BUT he doesn't look great at anything but power. The 22 SwStr% is awful, the 40 K% is awful, and his 12.6 BB% isn't enough to offset a low .200's BA. Bobby Witt Jr (33 HR, AA/AAA) AND will likely be MiLB POY. I don't need to expand on it ...BUT but nothing. There's nothing here to indicate he won't be a star in the majors as soon as next year. Andy Pages (31 HR, A+) AND was the youngest to do it. He's more than that though. His SwStr% was 11.9% & his BB% was 14.3% -- for 20 YO power bat, that's elite ...BUT if the Dodgers try to tweak his approach to tap into more hit tool, it could cost him some power. It's a quite minor thing. This is the third most impressive performer on this list, in my book. Oscar Gonzalez (31 HR, AA/AAA) AND proved you don't need a good plate approach to perform. His BA was higher than anyone not named Miranda here ...BUT will he be able to continue this? Seems like he's just going to be exposed more as he plays a full season at AAA. What differentiates him from other low BB% guys is his 17.9 SwStr%. Dermis Garcia (31 HR, AA) AND well, you know, a 30 HR season is good regardles of anything else! ...BUT nothing he did indicates he can succeed in the majors. 19.4 SwStr%, 37.9 K%, .210 BA, .307 OBP are all overwhelming negatives. Brandon Lewis (30 HR, A/A+) AND did it in 70 fewer PA's than anyone here without a crazy high K% ...BUT that K% is still pretty darn high (30.4%) and he wasn't playing at a high level for his age (though his performance was actually better in A+) Spencer Torkelson (30 HR, A+/AA/AAA) AND showed us all what we want to see - that he's a legit power bat in addition to being a great hitter for average...BUT is he a great average hitter? It looks good under the hood but the overall results are just a .267 BA. Brendon Davis (30 HR. A+/AA/AAA) AND in doing so showed up out of nowhere (this is a 2015 draftee!) to put himself on the map as a guy that's quite likely to reach the majors ...BUT is it real? He's 24 now -- is this just another Jaylin Davis? Jose Miranda (30 HR, AA/AAA) AND led the all the minors in hits & hit .344, .051 higher than anyone else here ....BUT he hits a ton of line drives & has a sub 30% FB -- it means that while he's likely to be a great hitter, unless hits hits laser HR's consistently, he's more likely to be a consistent 20-25 HR guy than a 30+ HR guy. Last edited by marterburn; 10-08-2021 at 01:59 PM.