Eloy Jimenez

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Let's hear it.

Cards, 1st Chrome Auto especially, typically go down slower than they go up. When a player gets hot his cards can double overnight. When a player gets cold it's usually a slow dribble down.

For year over year (ie Nov to Nov) typically over half of the players lose money. In 2020 (and likely 2021) it was a little less because the market was up 50%, but it was still something like 40% of players ended up 10% or more down and it was 12 out of 59 that ended up over 30% down. My bet is Eloy's 1st Chrome auto will be less in Nov 2021 than it was in Nov 2020. I'd put those odds at 80%, with very little upside.

On Dec 1 2020 when I took the prices Eloy was at $150. By Feb 1 he was up to $220. By mid Feb I was bidding $240 and getting beat, so he probably peaked around $250. Using the same formula for my sales (six autos, BTW, so not a small sample), he would come in at $190. To get to 30% down he'd have to lose another 45% from where he is now. To get to even he's got another 20-25%. That means it's better to sell Eloy now and buy him back in Oct-Nov, depending on how many you want to get. For reference, that whole Eloy collection I had I put together in two months. ETA: This isn't even accounting for the fact that I can deploy the money on someone healthy where I expect them to go up. I'm still getting Yordan, Devers, and Tucker with pretty good frequency.

For the 2019 RC PSA 10s I am not as familiar with the market, but so far they have followed the 1st Chrome Auto fairly closely. I grabbed the prices of his stuff a few weeks after the 1st Chrome Auto, which is relevant given how fast prices were going up at that time. At that point (mid to late Dec) his prices were;

#670-$55
#202-$70
base refractor-$120

I'm betting his prices fall below those levels. I didn't have any PSA 10 base (just a BGS 9.5), but his base refractors ($147 avg sale on 3) and his Chrome #202 ($80 avg sale on 7) went for more than mid Dec and I suspect they will be less at some point, even accounting the fees I paid for selling.

I will say that I did not expect to take that big of a beating on his 2019 PSA stuff. I had a Heritage purple refractor and two silver pack refractors that did ok, but everything else was at least ~10% less than I thought it would be.