Corona Virus

[charnick]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

4 Days ago, all media outlets were reporting to not worry about cases.

Now you are buying that we should worry about cases?

So here's my answer to that: the media a few days ago - to my recollection - a lot has happened since said not to look at the cases for the reasoning that the number is faulty because of the lack of testing. That is to say if ~10,000 cases have been reported, it's because they were tested and the numbers added to the count. But how many thousands and thousands of people have it but have yet to be tested? The reported number will seem low and inconsequential, but it has been shown that the R0 of COVID-19 is 2.2-2.5. Meaning for every one person that has it, they infect between 2.2-2.5 more people. So as the curve of reported cases starts to increase, we can somewhat extrapolate the number of people infected. Every day you see the official count goes up, the probability of unreported case increases by a factor of nearly 3. Do that math, and then the "flatten the curve" comes into focus. Once we run out of ICU beds... the death toll will skyrocket unfortunately because those worst cases won't be able to get the medical attention they need. Dr. Porter discusses that outcome in her video.

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Your own source, I have been following closely. US has had 4 straight days around 40-50 deaths. That doesn't match any other trend of any country. Case numbers are up, because of more widely available test. Fact is serious cases have DRAMATICALLY dipped per your source from 9% to 5% today......probably stops at around 1%.

Which one is? Should we not worry about cases like the media said Monday. Or should we now be worried about cases because the mortality rate and serious case rate are falling through the floor, and that no longer fits their agenda?

Let me know!

I don't care about agendas, I care about numbers and I care about human life. Doctors, scientists and medical professionals also don't have agendas (for the most part - and if you think Dr. Porter has one, I don't know what to tell you). Italy has had an awful increase in deaths in the last day alone as their medical infrastructure begins to collapse under the weight of the sick. It is completely naive to think that this couldn't happen here in short order. The anecdotal evidence that that critical mass in local hospitals has already started is overwhelming.