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Old 08-17-2023, 08:46 AM   #701
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R/R 4403 - 4400 for a bounce.


--------------------------------------------------------------

Added 9:09

Didn't get my entry. No early entries, still waiting.


Last edited by Blazed; 08-17-2023 at 09:10 AM.
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Old 08-17-2023, 09:25 AM   #702
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
R/R 4403 - 4400 for a bounce.


--------------------------------------------------------------

Added 9:09

Didn't get my entry. No early entries, still waiting.


I was curious if you got an early 4400 C entry. Not good enough SPY volume?
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Old 08-17-2023, 09:30 AM   #703
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I was curious if you got an early 4400 C entry. Not good enough SPY volume?
Algos trading and flow playing games. Positioning isn't normal right now either. So I'm being patient.

Can't trade this. Just need a 4403 - 4400 touch and I'll be in light.

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Old 08-17-2023, 09:32 AM   #704
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Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
Algos trading and flow playing games. Positioning isn't normal right now either. So I'm being patient.

Can't trade this. Just need a 4403 - 4400 touch and I'll be in light.

Is that the same reason you didn't take 4420 P at break below ATR?

There's the entry.
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Old 08-17-2023, 09:57 AM   #705
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R/R 4403 - 4400 for a bounce.


--------------------------------------------------------------

Added 9:09

Didn't get my entry. No early entries, still waiting.


R/R 4403 - 4400 for a bounce✅


Finally! Got my entry and all out of calls now. Went light so I only got $1,690 out of the trade but I'll take it.


This trade was a great example of having patience.


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Old 08-17-2023, 10:02 AM   #706
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Is that the same reason you didn't take 4420 P at break below ATR?

There's the entry.
Correct. Plus 4420 isn't as strong of a support/resistance level as 4400 is, plus OPEX tomorrow so it was better to wait for a solid entry.

When I said positioning wasn't normal, the way flow and algos were battling it out at 4407 was like they were averaging into a position. Didn't like that.
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:03 AM   #707
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Nice sell off this morning, I like it. Now we should get a push up into AM options expiration. So no levels pre-market.
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:09 AM   #708
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Nice sell off this morning, I like it. Now we should get a push up into AM options expiration. So no levels pre-market.
I can't remember from last OPEX, did you post levels? Just watching ATR levels and major levels? (4350, 4400?).
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:30 AM   #709
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OPEX today.

SPX: 4400 reject - will be trading off ATR levels until things level off.

Watching:

SPY 431.73 bounce, if we get down to that bounce my rejects will be 434.41, if we don't get down to that bounce level my reject level will be 436.5.
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Old 08-18-2023, 08:57 AM   #710
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Missed good 4360 ATR reject entry.
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Old 08-18-2023, 09:07 AM   #711
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They're adding SPX downside pressure to flow, but the interesting thing is the downside pressure being added is not 0dte.
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Old 08-18-2023, 09:50 AM   #712
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No trades so far. Not sure I'll test 4360 Puts this time around. Even though it would have been a decent little trade last time it tested.
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Old 08-18-2023, 09:57 AM   #713
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No trades so far. Not sure I'll test 4360 Puts this time around. Even though it would have been a decent little trade last time it tested.
SPX gap @ 4364.83. I'll be testing puts between the gap and 4370 ATR level. I want to see a lower volume push into the gap. Flow still showing it wants downside.
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Old 08-18-2023, 10:43 AM   #714
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SPX gap @ 4364.83. I'll be testing puts between the gap and 4370 ATR level. I want to see a lower volume push into the gap. Flow still showing it wants downside.

There we go. All out here @ 4355. All done trading for the day, up $3.2k on that put trade. This is why you stay patient and wait for the trades.

Great way to end OPEX.


Trade recap:

I'll be testing puts between the gap and 4370 ATR level✅




I want to see a lower volume push into the gap✅

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Old 08-18-2023, 02:14 PM   #715
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8/18 – OPEX Day, didn’t set any levels, this was based on Blaze stating he wasn’t setting any, but rather just watching ATR levels. Initially SPX rejected 4358 (two points below 4360 ATR) while SPY was rejecting 435.19 ATR, should have entered 4360 Puts here, would have a worked as SPX moved ten points down. SPX did not go any further, note for future scenarios that OPEX may not move very much so taking profits when you have them is best. Whole day SPX did not make significant moves. Next move was 4364 gap (missed this gap), that Blazed mentioned, I hesitated and did not take trade. 4364 worked out to take Puts (4365?), then sell at 4355 (this moved is based on what Blazed posted). I got in at 4360 Puts, one contract (light), held for move lower but should have sold when hit 4355, ended up selling for $50 loss as SPX kept hovering just above 4360. SPX stayed above 4360 the remainder of the day (at least up until 3:13) which would have killed the one 4360 Put I had if I were to have held on to it. Good patience today but should have pulled the trigger on the 4364 gap reject.
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Old 08-18-2023, 06:54 PM   #716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajlaxmn View Post
8/18 – OPEX Day, didn’t set any levels, this was based on Blaze stating he wasn’t setting any, but rather just watching ATR levels. Initially SPX rejected 4358 (two points below 4360 ATR) while SPY was rejecting 435.19 ATR, should have entered 4360 Puts here, would have a worked as SPX moved ten points down. SPX did not go any further, note for future scenarios that OPEX may not move very much so taking profits when you have them is best. Whole day SPX did not make significant moves. Next move was 4364 gap (missed this gap), that Blazed mentioned, I hesitated and did not take trade. 4364 worked out to take Puts (4365?), then sell at 4355 (this moved is based on what Blazed posted). I got in at 4360 Puts, one contract (light), held for move lower but should have sold when hit 4355, ended up selling for $50 loss as SPX kept hovering just above 4360. SPX stayed above 4360 the remainder of the day (at least up until 3:13) which would have killed the one 4360 Put I had if I were to have held on to it. Good patience today but should have pulled the trigger on the 4364 gap reject.
What caused you to hesitate? What did you see?
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Old 08-21-2023, 05:55 AM   #717
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Quote:
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What caused you to hesitate? What did you see?
So I think some of it was seeing what you wrote (lower volume push), I assume I know what that was, but wasn't 100%, so wanted to wait and see, plus how the market was moving that day, don't know just didn't have that conviction to just "take it", would have been small position regardless (1 contract), similar to what I did with the contract I took. Just a good lesson to take profits early on OPEX, as I was ITM with my trade, but I held too long.
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Old 08-21-2023, 08:22 AM   #718
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At work so won't be posting levels. Will follow and watch.
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Old 08-21-2023, 08:23 AM   #719
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This should be a fun week. NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole.


SPX: 4440 top (resistance 4417 - 4420) / 4350 bottom (support 4365 - 4360) gap @ 4381.82 / 4400 key level (need to break this to see upside)


Watching:

Spy 441 - 441.4 reject & 433.6 -433.4 for a bounce.


Be patient and wait for setups.
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Old 08-21-2023, 08:38 AM   #720
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blazed View Post
This should be a fun week. NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole.


SPX: 4440 top (resistance 4417 - 4420) / 4350 bottom (support 4365 - 4360) gap @ 4381.82 / 4400 key level (need to break this to see upside)


Watching:

Spy 441 - 441.4 reject & 433.6 -433.4 for a bounce.


Be patient and wait for setups.
Blaze you in 4380 Calls, about to scale out a few at 4390 then hold until 4400, scale a few then let some runners go depending on if its still going to go past 4400?

Haha.
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Old 08-21-2023, 08:47 AM   #721
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Blaze you in 4380 Calls, about to scale out a few at 4390 then hold until 4400, scale a few then let some runners go depending on if its still going to go past 4400?

Haha.
Always lol.

All out of calls since we had trouble with 4393, contracts moved nice.

This pump off the open was flow based. Now looking for a 4397 - 4000 reject. If we don't get there I'll get in puts with a close below 4385 on the 5 min.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added

Looks like they're holding this level and should go test 4397 - 4400 area. Smart play here would be to wait for "close enough" 4400 and get in puts.

Last edited by Blazed; 08-21-2023 at 08:52 AM.
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Old 08-21-2023, 09:05 AM   #722
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Always lol.

All out of calls since we had trouble with 4393, contracts moved nice.

This pump off the open was flow based. Now looking for a 4397 - 4000 reject. If we don't get there I'll get in puts with a close below 4385 on the 5 min.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added

Looks like they're holding this level and should go test 4397 - 4400 area. Smart play here would be to wait for "close enough" 4400 and get in puts.
I wasn't paper trading but just watching SPX, saw the reject of 4381.9 and thought maybe that was close enough for a reject of your gap, but then took a second and realized this was opening at the gap and not rejecting at (SPY volume also confirmed). Took me a minute to see it though, still would have been a good entry were I papertrading. Sucks I wasn't.
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Old 08-21-2023, 09:58 AM   #723
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Always lol.

All out of calls since we had trouble with 4393, contracts moved nice.

This pump off the open was flow based. Now looking for a 4397 - 4000 reject. If we don't get there I'll get in puts with a close below 4385 on the 5 min.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added

Looks like they're holding this level and should go test 4397 - 4400 area. Smart play here would be to wait for "close enough" 4400 and get in puts.

Trade recap:

Smart play here would be to wait for "close enough" 4400 and get in puts✅ - what a trade that was! Caught puts @ 4396 off the low volume push. Contracts went from $1,120 - $2,550, for a $1,400 gain per contract.

Up $12.5k for the day so I will call it a day here.






Education:


Entered the trade when we pushed up to NHOD on low volume. Buying momentum was slowing down and we were having trouble with 4393 - 4395.

When candles blow past levels, you wait for it to close. If it closes below the level, that's support turned resistance and you can hold your position for more downside.

I exited @ SPY support with buying volume picking up and flow coming in to the upside.


Last edited by Blazed; 08-21-2023 at 10:02 AM.
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Old 08-21-2023, 11:48 AM   #724
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Quote:
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This should be a fun week. NVDA earnings and Jackson Hole.


SPX: 4440 top (resistance 4417 - 4420) / 4350 bottom (support 4365 - 4360) gap @ 4381.82 / 4400 key level (need to break this to see upside)


Watching:

Spy 441 - 441.4 reject & 433.6 -433.4 for a bounce.


Be patient and wait for setups.
Hope someone else caught the 4360 bounce. ajlaxmn?

I was looking at some stuff online when my alert went off. This is why it's important to set alerts lol.

SPX: support 4365 - 4360✅ - Almost $700 gain per contract. Got $4k off it. A nice lunch time lunch money trade lol.






Selling was slowing so R/R was there for a nice bounce.


Last edited by Blazed; 08-21-2023 at 12:04 PM.
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Old 08-21-2023, 12:23 PM   #725
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Hope someone else caught the 4360 bounce. ajlaxmn?

I was looking at some stuff online when my alert went off. This is why it's important to set alerts lol.

SPX: support 4365 - 4360✅ - Almost $700 gain per contract. Got $4k off it. A nice lunch time lunch money trade lol.






Selling was slowing so R/R was there for a nice bounce.

Negative. I didn't have my ToS online up. It times out if you don't stat active in it, so I only usually watch the morning moves for about two hours then just review at the end of the day. I did set an alert last friday just to get use to setting it, didn't hit though.
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