My way-too-early shot at 2021 Bowman Draft prospect demand

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 01:06 PM

8/2 Update. Well losing 3 of (my) top 25 players due to not signing kinda stinks. But, I've re-ranked based on more reading and with all the signings/teams in place now. I'll paste this to the last page as well:

1 Marcelo Mayer BOS
2 Jordan Lawlar ARI
3 Henry Davis PIT
4 Khalil Watson MIA
5 Jack Leiter TEX
6 Brady House WAS
7 Harry Ford SEA
8 Benny Montgomery COL
9 Matt McLain CIN
10 Colton Cowser BAL
11 Jackson Jobe DET
12 Joshua Baez STL
13 Colson Montgomery CHW
14 Lonnie White PIT
15 Trey Sweeney NYY
16 Sal Frelick MIL
17 Izaac Pacheco DET
18 Ethan Wilson PHI
19 James Wood SD
20 Wes Kath CHW
21 Connor Norby BAL
22 Christian Franklin CHC
23 Maxwell Muncy OAK
24 Tyler Black MIL
25 Bubba Chandler PIT

BELOW IS A PRE-DRAFT RANK UPDATED ON 6/21

I don't want to say pricing because there's too many ways to spin it. I don't want to go into detail because we don't know if all these guys will sign. But here we go, for the hobby, here's my top 25:

1 Marcelo Mayer
2 Jordan Lawlar
3 Khalil Watson
4 Brady House
5 Henry Davis
6 Jack Leiter
7 Sal Frelick
8 Matt McLain
9 Kumar Rocker
10 Benny Montgomery
11 Harry Ford
12 Colton Cowser
13 Jud Fabian
14 Bubba Chandler
15 Joshua Baez
16 Jackson Jobe
17 Will Taylor
18 James Wood
19 Lonnie White
20 Ty Madden
21 Colson Montgomery
22 Gunnar Hogland
23 Izaac Pacheco
24 Andrew Painter
25 Ryan Cusick

This is more to get some discussion going than to nitpick ranks here. What do ya'll think?

MiamiMarlinsFan · 06-10-2021, 01:18 PM

Jack Leiter seems low. Not saying he will be better than the people you have above him, I just feel like he will be a very public name and will have high demand. ESPN keeps us updated on his every strikeout, ya know? Just my thoughts.

Boredlawyer · 06-10-2021, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marterburn

I don't want to say pricing because there's too many ways to spin it. I don't want to go into detail because we don't know if all these guys will sign. But here we go, for the hobby, here's my top 25:

1 Marcelo Mayer
2 Jordan Lawlar
3 Khalil Watson
4 Brady House
5 Henry Davis
6 Jack Leiter
7 Sal Frelick
8 Matt McLain
9 Kumar Rocker
10 Benny Montgomery
11 Harry Ford
12 Colton Cowser
13 Jud Fabian
14 Bubba Chandler
15 Joshua Baez
16 Jackson Jobe
17 Will Taylor
18 James Wood
19 Lonnie White
20 Ty Madden
21 Colson Montgomery
22 Gunnar Hogland
23 Izaac Pacheco
24 Andrew Painter
25 Ryan Cusick

This is more to get some discussion going than to nitpick ranks here. What do ya'll think?

Love it. I think Kumar is still going to be a top guy (despite being a pitcher) because he's got mainstream ESPN attention. I would move Baez and Montgomery up past McClain, Davis and Frelick, simply because they're high ceiling outfield high school bats. Depending where House lands, I could see him being a top 2-3 guy because the power is enticing and he's also got more hype than most. Don't think it will happen, but if House ends up with the Red Sox at 4, he might be the second most expensive guy behind the #1 pick.

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Love it. I think Kumar is still going to be a top guy (despite being a pitcher) because he's got mainstream ESPN attention. I would move Baez and Montgomery up past McClain, Davis and Frelick, simply because they're high ceiling outfield high school bats. Depending where House lands, I could see him being a top 2-3 guy because the power is enticing and he's also got more hype than most. Don't think it will happen, but if House ends up with the Red Sox at 4, he might be the second most expensive guy behind the #1 pick.

I can definitely see pushing McLain lower, but Frelick & Davis are esentially "the search for Garrett Mitchell", so to speak. Davis probably has the highest floor of anyone.

I have Rocker a little lower because his 3rd pitch is a work in progress, so relief risk is still there and I think he's so high profile that hobby will see that. By putting him at #9 I think he's still where someone like Garret Crochet would have been comparatively.

Leiter is SO famous that yeah, I might have him too low. But I'm OK with it.

cardsin47 · 06-10-2021, 01:36 PM

If I remember correctly marterburn, you REALLY get into doing the homework on the Prospects - as do I !
How many hours do you think you have invested in research, to come up with this list in this order?

premium1981 · 06-10-2021, 01:44 PM

Kumar is filthy. He will be at or near the top, especially for pitchers.

JRX · 06-10-2021, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by premium1981

Kumar is filthy. He will be at or near the top, especially for pitchers.

TINSTAAPP

MiamiMarlinsFan · 06-10-2021, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

TINSTAAPP

That is very true. Still won’t stop people from throwing money at them.

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsin47

If I remember correctly marterburn, you REALLY get into doing the homework on the Prospects - as do I !
How many hours do you think you have invested in research, to come up with this list in this order?

This list in this order, not much time.

But I do have a spreadsheet of aggregated Draft rankers, which I then filtered to a point system to weight for the hobby (it's about 200 names). It's not this list, and it doesn't penalize pitching enough, but that took quite awhile to put together. But it's fun, it gets me familiarized with at least the names.

premium1981 · 06-10-2021, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

TINSTAAPP

Quote:

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

That is very true. Still won’t stop people from throwing money at them.

Some of my highest percentage returns have been from pitching prospects. Not like Kumar though, as I stay away from the top ones. I was just stating that he will be at the top. Percentage wise, pitchers can bring higher returns, you just have to be ready because the window is always smaller.

Middies31985 · 06-10-2021, 02:02 PM

This class is going to be great IMO. With 3 guys likely to stay at the SS position at the top that could be huge for this class moving forward in the hobby. I like Watson as the safest of the SS prospects.

House probably becomes a 3B but has the power potential to carry him in the hobby.

Mix in the electric arms and you have some really high profile guys here. I would probably slide Benny up a little on my list.

JRX · 06-10-2021, 02:03 PM

Can we highlight who is under 19?

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Can we highlight who is under 19?

Apologies for the different order, this is from my spreadsheet:

Marcelo Mayer
Jordan Lawlar
Khalil Watson
Brady House
Harry Ford
Benny Montgomery
Jackson Jobe
Joshua Baez
Bubba Chandler
Will Taylor
Izaac Pacheco
Andrew Painter
Lonnie White
Joe Mack
Peyton Stovall
James Wood
Colson Montgomery
Alex Mooney

MiamiMarlinsFan · 06-10-2021, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by premium1981

Some of my highest percentage returns have been from pitching prospects. Not like Kumar though, as I stay away from the top ones. I was just stating that he will be at the top. Percentage wise, pitchers can bring higher returns, you just have to be ready because the window is always smaller.

Oh, I agree. I collect a few SP prospects. Especially Marlins arms. I just do so knowing that it’s even more risky than hitting prospects.

cardsin47 · 06-10-2021, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Can we highlight who is under 19?

Great point —- I like ‘em really young, too! ( you know what I mean

)

VandyCards · 06-10-2021, 03:19 PM

Is this different than what a mock draft would look like?

I think absent knowing what teams a dude goes to, it’s sort of really speculative

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Is this different than what a mock draft would look like?

I think absent knowing what teams a dude goes to, it’s sort of really speculative

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, this is NOT a mock draft.

Org definitely does have an impact on demand, but it's not really the most important thing. For instance it matters that Anthony Volpe was drafted by the Yankees, but would it have bumped him more than a spot or two? I don't think so.

Did Nick Gonzales to the Pirates matter all that much? Nah.

Plus, speculation is fun!

crpav · 06-10-2021, 03:48 PM

Can you do a Bowman Chrome speculation thread next?

Nung2019 · 06-10-2021, 04:53 PM

Love the thread.. wonder if the draft being later will push pack 2021 Draft being produced? This could be a great class

Cavaliercards · 06-10-2021, 05:06 PM

My top 25 is gonna include Stephen Schoch based on his interview and how many UVA fans are rabid about him, his prices are going to be driven higher than a goat on a mountain in Switzerland. That is not even factoring in that he collects and will throw some weight around.

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cavaliercards

My top 25 is gonna include Stephen Schoch based on his interview and how many UVA fans are rabid about him, his prices are going to be driven higher than a goat on a mountain in Switzerland. That is not even factoring in that he collects and will throw some weight around.

Isn't he like 40 years old?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Cavaliercards · 06-10-2021, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marterburn

Isn't he like 40 years old?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

24 and King of Dipping Dots

VandyCards · 06-10-2021, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marterburn

Yeah, this is NOT a mock draft.

Org definitely does have an impact on demand, but it's not really the most important thing. For instance it matters that Anthony Volpe was drafted by the Yankees, but would it have bumped him more than a spot or two? I don't think so.

Did Nick Gonzales to the Pirates matter all that much? Nah.

Plus, speculation is fun!

So you think a college catcher who went from relative unknown to a potential top 5 pick will be more highly valued than a (relative) household name with a big league dad and a high profile team? I don’t see it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

VandyCards · 06-10-2021, 06:06 PM

Also Frelick is really only getting top 10 buzz as a guy who will take underslot. I don’t think he had the type of profile to be a top 10 (or 8) hobby guy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

marterburn · 06-10-2021, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VandyCards

So you think a college catcher who went from relative unknown to a potential top 5 pick will be more highly valued than a (relative) household name with a big league dad and a high profile team? I don’t see it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote:

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Also Frelick is really only getting top 10 buzz as a guy who will take underslot. I don’t think he had the type of profile to be a top 10 (or 8) hobby guy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Right, I'd agree that Leiter is the best pitcher for the hobby since the 2018 draft. It's just a matter of how one values that.

But I really think Davis' strong season will carry his status in the hobby. I think he'll be right about where Bart was at release.

Frelick -- yeah I may be a little high. Like I said I threw this together pretty quickly. I'd probably move him next to Montgomery in one direction or the other.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

06-10-2021, 01:36 PM	#5
cardsin47 Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: Westminster, MD Posts: 8,761 cardsin47	If I remember correctly marterburn, you REALLY get into doing the homework on the Prospects - as do I ! How many hours do you think you have invested in research, to come up with this list in this order? __________________ @cardsin47 is Steve Meyer ~ #WaxReturns! PC Gem Mint Factory Sealed 5-Sport Active Player RC & Prospect SCARCE Hobby/ HTA Jumbo/ Retail/ Blaster/ Mega Boxes! ~Trout! Soto! JROD! Wemby! Luka! Mahomes! McDavid! Bedard! Erling!~

06-10-2021, 03:19 PM	#16
VandyCards Member Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 5,410	Is this different than what a mock draft would look like? I think absent knowing what teams a dude goes to, it’s sort of really speculative Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ I collect cards of former Vanderbilt baseball players. CURRENTLY SEEKING ANY AND ALL SERIAL NUMBERERD/SP TONY KEMP TOPPS CARDS.

06-10-2021, 05:06 PM	#20
Cavaliercards Member Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Charlottesville, VA Posts: 30,889 cavaliercards	My top 25 is gonna include Stephen Schoch based on his interview and how many UVA fans are rabid about him, his prices are going to be driven higher than a goat on a mountain in Switzerland. That is not even factoring in that he collects and will throw some weight around. __________________ Always Buying: Vintage and Tobacco Cards Follow us on Twitter AND Instagram: @Cavaliercards

06-10-2021, 06:06 PM	#24
VandyCards Member Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 5,410	Also Frelick is really only getting top 10 buzz as a guy who will take underslot. I don’t think he had the type of profile to be a top 10 (or 8) hobby guy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk __________________ I collect cards of former Vanderbilt baseball players. CURRENTLY SEEKING ANY AND ALL SERIAL NUMBERERD/SP TONY KEMP TOPPS CARDS.

06-10-2021, 01:06 PM	#1
marterburn Member Join Date: May 2018 Location: Milwaukee area Posts: 4,719 burnmax12 burnmax12	My way-too-early shot at 2021 Bowman Draft prospect demand 8/2 Update. Well losing 3 of (my) top 25 players due to not signing kinda stinks. But, I've re-ranked based on more reading and with all the signings/teams in place now. I'll paste this to the last page as well: 1 Marcelo Mayer BOS 2 Jordan Lawlar ARI 3 Henry Davis PIT 4 Khalil Watson MIA 5 Jack Leiter TEX 6 Brady House WAS 7 Harry Ford SEA 8 Benny Montgomery COL 9 Matt McLain CIN 10 Colton Cowser BAL 11 Jackson Jobe DET 12 Joshua Baez STL 13 Colson Montgomery CHW 14 Lonnie White PIT 15 Trey Sweeney NYY 16 Sal Frelick MIL 17 Izaac Pacheco DET 18 Ethan Wilson PHI 19 James Wood SD 20 Wes Kath CHW 21 Connor Norby BAL 22 Christian Franklin CHC 23 Maxwell Muncy OAK 24 Tyler Black MIL 25 Bubba Chandler PIT BELOW IS A PRE-DRAFT RANK UPDATED ON 6/21 I don't want to say pricing because there's too many ways to spin it. I don't want to go into detail because we don't know if all these guys will sign. But here we go, for the hobby, here's my top 25: 1 Marcelo Mayer 2 Jordan Lawlar 3 Khalil Watson 4 Brady House 5 Henry Davis 6 Jack Leiter 7 Sal Frelick 8 Matt McLain 9 Kumar Rocker 10 Benny Montgomery 11 Harry Ford 12 Colton Cowser 13 Jud Fabian 14 Bubba Chandler 15 Joshua Baez 16 Jackson Jobe 17 Will Taylor 18 James Wood 19 Lonnie White 20 Ty Madden 21 Colson Montgomery 22 Gunnar Hogland 23 Izaac Pacheco 24 Andrew Painter 25 Ryan Cusick This is more to get some discussion going than to nitpick ranks here. What do ya'll think? Last edited by marterburn; 08-02-2021 at 12:59 PM.

06-10-2021, 01:18 PM	#2
MiamiMarlinsFan Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: Florida Posts: 13,485	Jack Leiter seems low. Not saying he will be better than the people you have above him, I just feel like he will be a very public name and will have high demand. ESPN keeps us updated on his every strikeout, ya know? Just my thoughts.

06-10-2021, 01:44 PM	#6
premium1981 Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: North Carolina Posts: 11,169	Kumar is filthy. He will be at or near the top, especially for pitchers.

06-10-2021, 02:02 PM	#11
Middies31985 Member Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 965 mercer6huz Mercer85	This class is going to be great IMO. With 3 guys likely to stay at the SS position at the top that could be huge for this class moving forward in the hobby. I like Watson as the safest of the SS prospects. House probably becomes a 3B but has the power potential to carry him in the hobby. Mix in the electric arms and you have some really high profile guys here. I would probably slide Benny up a little on my list.

06-10-2021, 02:03 PM	#12
JRX Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 15,555	Can we highlight who is under 19?

06-10-2021, 03:48 PM	#18
crpav Member Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,172	Can you do a Bowman Chrome speculation thread next?

06-10-2021, 04:53 PM	#19
Nung2019 Member Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 1,240	Love the thread.. wonder if the draft being later will push pack 2021 Draft being produced? This could be a great class